What will a thru hike look like in 2051?

[The Counselor]

Consider this a companion question to whether you could thru in 1969. What is likely to be different in another 40 years? Trail-wise? Shelters? Tents and hammocks? Packs, shoes, clothes? Food? Towns? What is the long term future of the AT thru?

[Storm]

One thing is pretty certain. I won't be around to worry about it. Even Lone Wolf would probably bet on that and he bets against most things. lol

[Hikerhead]

It will probably be 2,500 miles long by then.

[WalkingUSA]

Corporate sponsored segments the entire way.

Example " This section of the Appalachian Trail is brought to you by Wal-Mart. "

Signs promoting Wal-Mart next to every White Blaze.

[Hobbler]

The Future A/T....Hope not.


Why stop at 2051? or any other future time ....Yes, I am old enough to remember the song 2525 being played daily on the radio air-waves! Let me offer an altered look at the far and beyond to be taken with a grain of salt.....Humerous or Scary?

For example...The year 2525 could bring:

Usless legs and arms with all exercise done for us by machine. You could still move about but all muscle-mass will be gone and even frowned upon.

The A/T being a full moving platform like those currently in airports, except it will be transparent, climate-controlled and covered (tube-like). It will have a separate tow line for your gear...if you chose to bring any. No need to carry a pack! Sorta like slack-packing without the pack. Just press a button and you could get off where you want on moving and covered blue-blazes that lead to views and water-falls. No Rain...Snow....or elements....No complaining!

Escalators for those rock scrambles because remember, your hands will be use-less for hand-over-hand climbing.

Or...maybe a transport system the likes of Star Trek to beam you to whatever point you choose to program into it.

On arrival at the shelters one would find a landing platform attached to an enclosed structure, like a present day train station. It will contain all the amenities there for you to enjoy...Full bed, vending machines with hot food and cold filtered water, heated airspace and don't forget the hot water shower and flush or composting toilet without even having to leave the building. All you would need is your thumb-print to pay for what services that you desire. Can you say hotels on the trail?

Anything that you wish to remember like photographs or communications are handled by a chip inserted into your brain to allow capturing or transmittal by telepathy.

The trail could be done from Springer to Katahdin in mere minutes which would leave time left for the more important things in life like transendental thought and meditation.

All this will provide the thru-hiker (Thru-Rider) with a near pain-free journey.

Since no level of fitness will be necessary to obtain or prepare for..
You could even take great granny then at age 148 without her having to break a sweat. She could enjoy your (Hiking?) experience first-hand.

I could go on...But I am sure that some of you will help to fill in.

I meant to put this in humor forum but...Oh well!

[Bags4266]

It will be paved and everyone will be using Segways

[sbhikes]

I picture something quite opposite of futuristic stuff. There may be advertising. There may be strip mining or gas wells everywhere. Possibly trees cut down for firewood and building. There may not even be a trail. I predict people wearing recycled clothing, using old, tattered gear, carrying simple foods. No high-tech fabrics unless they are things they owned in the past. No high-tech shoes unless the were found washed up on the beach from some container ship. No pre-packaged foods. Because of the oil crash, hardly anybody hikes the trail for fun anymore. Maybe now you will really need your gun.

[Newb]

the trail will be crowded with armed refugees fleeing the zombie apocalypse

[v5planet]

I seriously doubt there will be a contiguous, unbroken Appalachian Trail 50 years from now. My money is on the mid-Atlantic portions fracturing due to development. The rest of the trail? More amenities, more intrusion by civilization.

[fiddlehead]

Permits, permits, permits.
Waiting lists, lotteries, reservations, and much discussion on this website as to how to get one.
But the trail itself will be fine.

[chazaq]

retro hikers carrying 15lbs packs from the "old days"

[Sickmont]

You'll be able to do the trail on a "MIchael J Fox Back to the Future limited edition" hoverboard.

[hikerboy57]

Due to pollution and erosion, the AT will be hiked in virtual reality, complete with spruce smell and teatree oil, along with someone hitting you in the calves and quads with a heavy stick.You will be well fed every 6th day, with small snacks designed to ensure hunger pangs between "town visits"

[LDog]

Consider this a companion question to whether you could thru in 1969. What is likely to be different in another 40 years?

The question is moot. Everyone knows the world ends Dec 2012 ...

[LDog]

The A/T being a full moving platform like those currently in airports, except it will be transparent, climate-controlled and covered (tube-like).

All sensory perception soothed by Soma?

[sarge95]

I agree with Hikerboy57. You will be able to sit in front of whatever replaces our present TV and travel the Trail by a programed Camera. Being able to stop at Overlooks then get back on the trail. you will be able to travel the trail at your own desired speed. You would be able to visit Hostels along the trail or stop in towns and tour the towns checking all motels and staying at whichever motel you want. The sky is the limit on what could be included and as some have suggested it could be free being paid for by advertisements.

[LDog]

I'd guess that there will be kids right out of college sharing the trail with old, recently retired farts. Technology will have advanced significantly to where average base pack weight is down to 5 lbs amongst those who can afford the latest stuff. Others will hump hump 8 lb packs loaded with 10 yo stuff. There will be some old fart who always wants to wax poetically about the gold old days when real hikers humped 30 lb internal frame packs, wearing clothing made from polypropylene and something called goretex, and shoes that weighed 27 ozs a pair!

Unfortunately, water still weighs the same. The elitist SUL folks will carry 8 oz per day of high-density, nutritionally complete food bars, while others will still pack home-made granola and spend untold hours looking for a source for Nido.

Folks will still get blisters, bug bites and hypothermia.

Folks will undoubtedly argue the merits of nobo vs sobo vs flip-flop. They'll still believe that each individual ought to hike one's own hike, but will secretly think less of those who do not adhere to strictly to hiking every white blaze.

Apple's latest generation of the Ipad wil have built in GPS and an AT App that will pinpoint your position on the trail, provide constant read-out of altitude, total miles hiked, distance to destination, distance to next shelter, location of every water source and ayce buffet, and continuous updates about weather and aggressive bears. It'll weigh 2 ozs with a battery power that lasts weeks, and will be scorned by 50% of all hikers.

REI will still outfit each wanna-be hiker with everything on the Mountaineer's ten essentials.

[Regulus]

The Earth will harbor more than 12 billion people by that time so they'll have to double the width of the trail.

[Pedaling Fool]

We definitely are becoming less physical because of technology. Factor that with the fact that evolution never stops, unless you find your niche, such as sharks, alligators... But we haven't found our niche; we evolved to run, but we've lost interest in that lifestyle, so it's inevitable that we will evolve. This guy thinks we're going to split off into two sub-species http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6057734.stm

I disagree, I think we've already seen our evolutionary outcome: http://ivarfjeld.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/scientists-urge-un-to-prepare-for-alien-invasion/



:sun

[couscous]

A lot of amusing posts here. Very entertaining.

[SassyWindsor]

Worst case: plaques with pictures of how things use to look or what they would look like if you could actually see through the pollution, terrible acid rain damage over the years. Pictures of wildlife that use to roam the area. Trail now paved. Shuttle fees will be $124 per mile, with a min of 4 paying hikers. Fire pits now fueled by methane from privies.

Revolution: Shelters will have solar or yet invented power, to charge the new electronic toys/cell phones/computers. Privies will be higher tech. Hikers will be required to have reservations to hike the trail, complete with gov issued ID cards to swipe at trail-heads, shelters, privies, etc once you accquire said reservation. Rangers will be able to track your movement by a PLB device that attaches to your pack, you'll probably have a fee to pay covering this as well as your temp ID card when you obtain your reservation. Reservations could be based on some sort of lottery system. Fire pits, regardless of fuel allowed, will still be full of cans and other trash.

[Slack-jawed Trog]

"The AT is mandated to be a wilderness footpath, yet federal legislation requires it to be available to all people."

Ya know those H.C. accessible toilets in the middle of nowhere? Yeah...

[Digger'02]

Permits, permits, permits.
Waiting lists, lotteries, reservations, and much discussion on this website as to how to get one.
But the trail itself will be fine.

I think this is the most likely. In some ways I think it could actually look better. I think that there is a reasonable hope that there will be less powerline crossings due to changes in energy production and hopefully less polution due to transportation changes, but you know I am hopeful.

In Georgia particularly, with all the newbies and concentrated impact, look for changes in managment by that time, you just can't sit around and let georgia become a TP field.

[earplug94]

on a computer with virtual software. lol. with a beer in the other hand.

[DaSchwartz]

Consider this a companion question to whether you could thru in 1969. What is likely to be different in another 40 years? Trail-wise? Shelters? Tents and hammocks? Packs, shoes, clothes? Food? Towns? What is the long term future of the AT thru?

The Trail is more remote today then it was 30 years ago. That won't change.

Gear might get a little bit lighter. There will be more high tech devices out there (remember when you had to hitchhike to USE the phone?). Drunks will still be on the trail. Perhaps some more shelters (there are way too many as it is now). Probably more bears and critters.

[Cookerhiker]

I seriously doubt there will be a contiguous, unbroken Appalachian Trail 50 years from now. My money is on the mid-Atlantic portions fracturing due to development. The rest of the trail? More amenities, more intrusion by civilization.

I'm not quite as pessimistic but portions of the current corridor will be so surrounded by sprawl and development that the "wilderness" experience will be compromised especially starting around Front Royal on up to Pawling. One reason for the Tuscarora Trail's creation was to provide an alternate corridor to the AT because of rampant development.

The Tuscarora may emerge as a sanctioned blue-blazed alternate to hiking the white blazes, i.e. the ATC still recognizes hikers who take the Tuscarora as 2,000 Milers.

[Powder River]

Here's my prediction:

I think packs will be less than 1 lb, and still be capable of carrying up to 50lbs. Shelters will be 5-6 ounces with full bug protection. There will be a thermarest zeoair, which will weigh 7 ounces, an R value of 5, and come in florescent blue. Goretex will still be around, but it will be a spacey material that will expel every molecule of moisture, and you will still have a tough time finding a jacket that doesn't have a ridiculously sized hood. Sleeping bags will still be filled with good old fashioned down, but have very advanced shell materials. People will still be wearing wool, and paying top dollar for it.

Phones will be very thin and be do-all devices, which will include insane battery life and include apps for the AT. The use of devices in the woods will be very widespread, as the old fashioned folks will be long gone, as the oldest thru hiker would have owned a cell phone for over 50 years. Cell networks will have blanket coverage along with insanely fast internet. Watching Netflix via download will be a popular activity in shelters. SPOT Messenger functionality will be widely built into cell phones, allowing any adventurer to text or send video messages via satellite from anywhere on earth. As a result, there is no longer any true wilderness, and a thru hike is seen as something like a multi month marathon than a wilderness adventure. There will be hefty fines by SARS organizations for abusing this widespread technology. Somebody will finally figure out a viable solar panel that can actually charge a cell phone. Trail Journals will still be around and will be exactly the same as it was in 2007.

The trail will be a little longer due to relocations, and will still be protected and beautiful. Acid rain and various tree sicknesses will have taken their toll, including invasive beetles that take out entire forests. Large parts of the Smokies will have been completely stripped of trees, along with many other areas. The kutzu vine will have choked all the south and mid atlantic and there will be few forests left that are passable without a trail. Finding a place to get off trail to use the restroom will be a challenge.

People will still come to the AT for the same reasons, and many more people will be coming to the trail to escape an overcrowded eastern United States. Development will be rampant, especially in Northern Va through the Cumberland Valley, and Bear Mountain NY through the Berkshires. The AMC will build huge hiker friendly lodges with full amenities on quarter mile blue blaze trails all through Maine and anywhere else they can buy up land. They will have beds, showers and croos, who will cook amazing meals. Hikers will be able to "slackpack" throughout the AMC lodge system for 1/5th of the trail, only carrying a day pack. They will still charge to stay at the shelter at Speck Pond, claiming a $40 fee to support the air-lifted compost to feed the privy. There will be a caretaker to collect this fee and to stir the compost in the privy. Refusing to use this privy will still not excuse a hiker from paying the fee.

[Pedaling Fool]

Here's my prediction:

I think packs will be less than 1 lb, and still be capable of carrying up to 50lbs. Shelters will be 5-6 ounces with full bug protection. There will be a thermarest zeoair, which will weigh 7 ounces, an R value of 5, and come in florescent blue. Goretex will still be around, but it will be a spacey material that will expel every molecule of moisture, and you will still have a tough time finding a jacket that doesn't have a ridiculously sized hood. Sleeping bags will still be filled with good old fashioned down, but have very advanced shell materials. People will still be wearing wool, and paying top dollar for it.

Phones will be very thin and be do-all devices, which will include insane battery life and include apps for the AT. The use of devices in the woods will be very widespread, as the old fashioned folks will be long gone, as the oldest thru hiker would have owned a cell phone for over 50 years. Cell networks will have blanket coverage along with insanely fast internet. Watching Netflix via download will be a popular activity in shelters. SPOT Messenger functionality will be widely built into cell phones, allowing any adventurer to text or send video messages via satellite from anywhere on earth. As a result, there is no longer any true wilderness, and a thru hike is seen as something like a multi month marathon than a wilderness adventure. There will be hefty fines by SARS organizations for abusing this widespread technology. Somebody will finally figure out a viable solar panel that can actually charge a cell phone. Trail Journals will still be around and will be exactly the same as it was in 2007.

The trail will be a little longer due to relocations, and will still be protected and beautiful. Acid rain and various tree sicknesses will have taken their toll, including invasive beetles that take out entire forests. Large parts of the Smokies will have been completely stripped of trees, along with many other areas. The kutzu vine will have choked all the south and mid atlantic and there will be few forests left that are passable without a trail. Finding a place to get off trail to use the restroom will be a challenge.

People will still come to the AT for the same reasons, and many more people will be coming to the trail to escape an overcrowded eastern United States. Development will be rampant, especially in Northern Va through the Cumberland Valley, and Bear Mountain NY through the Berkshires. The AMC will build huge hiker friendly lodges with full amenities on quarter mile blue blaze trails all through Maine and anywhere else they can buy up land. They will have beds, showers and croos, who will cook amazing meals. Hikers will be able to "slackpack" throughout the AMC lodge system for 1/5th of the trail, only carrying a day pack. They will still charge to stay at the shelter at Speck Pond, claiming a $40 fee to support the air-lifted compost to feed the privy. There will be a caretaker to collect this fee and to stir the compost in the privy. Refusing to use this privy will still not excuse a hiker from paying the fee.
Kudzu was misspelled, but point taken. However, there's one problem, the lightning-speed spread of Kudzu was a myth. Many publications still say it spreads at a rate of hundreds of thousands of acres per year, but the truth is it only spreads more like 2,500 acres per year. It also has some weaknesses that effect its growth, most notably that shade is detrimental to its growth.

Kudzu also does not cover nearly the amount of land a lot of publications, including official govt literature, claims, which are in the millions of acres. Actually it only covers an area of about 227,000 acres. The myth of its extensive coverage is helped by the fact that it readily grows along roadsides, since the the trees were cut down in that area, see the following excerpt: "It was an invasive that grew best in the landscape modern Southerners were most familiar with—the roadsides framed in their car windows. It was conspicuous even at 65 miles per hour, reducing complex and indecipherable landscape details to one seemingly coherent mass. And because it looked as if it covered everything in sight, few people realized that the vine often fizzled out just behind that roadside screen of green."





I love the ending sentence in the article:

In the end, kudzu may prove to be among the least appropriate symbols of the Southern landscape and the planet’s future. But its mythic rise and fall should alert us to the careless secondhand way we sometimes view the living world, and how much more we might see if we just looked a little deeper.




Good Article: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/true-story-kudzu-vine-ate-south-180956325/?no-ist





.

[Traveler]

Must be the Halloween influence with all these zombie threads coming back to life!

[magic_game03]

Pack weights will be 0 lbs. because of DRONES…..

This is an easy one. By 2051 we will have 2 kinds of drones, Drop Drones and Supply Drones. If you need water, you will just summon a Drop Drone to fly in H20. When you get to your camp spot for the night you will summon your Supply Drone to fly in with your camp gear. Anything you need you just summon a drone; even emergency care. By then drones will be so advanced they will be able to fly through the worst weather and navigate the most difficult aerial maneuvers.

[Sarcasm the elf]

Kudzu was misspelled, but point taken. However, there's one problem, the lightning-speed spread of Kudzu was a myth. Many publications still say it spreads at a rate of hundreds of thousands of acres per year, but the truth is it only spreads more like 2,500 acres per year. It also has some weaknesses that effect its growth, most notably that shade is detrimental to its growth.

Kudzu also does not cover nearly the amount of land a lot of publications, including official govt literature, claims, which are in the millions of acres. Actually it only covers an area of about 227,000 acres. The myth of its extensive coverage is helped by the fact that it readily grows along roadsides, since the the trees were cut down in that area, see the following excerpt: "It was an invasive that grew best in the landscape modern Southerners were most familiar with—the roadsides framed in their car windows. It was conspicuous even at 65 miles per hour, reducing complex and indecipherable landscape details to one seemingly coherent mass. And because it looked as if it covered everything in sight, few people realized that the vine often fizzled out just behind that roadside screen of green."





I love the ending sentence in the article:

In the end, kudzu may prove to be among the least appropriate symbols of the Southern landscape and the planet’s future. But its mythic rise and fall should alert us to the careless secondhand way we sometimes view the living world, and how much more we might see if we just looked a little deeper.




Good Article: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/true-story-kudzu-vine-ate-south-180956325/?no-ist





.

Do you have any insite into Japanese knotweed? The plant is quickly choking out New England roadsides the same way that Kudzu is in the south.

[Sarcasm the elf]

..........

[Sarcasm the elf]

..........

[1234]

It will look the same as it does now only the shelters will be gone or falling apart. Folks will be required to have phone with EZ pass app to log your payments for each segment you do. Nylon will be gone replaced with virtual force field of some sort. 3D printers will be at set locations to make whatever you need. You may need to wear google glasses to see the forest that was once present. Scotty beam me up will be a reality. ...

[elray]

I'll turn 100 that year, I'm going to attempt another week long section with my wife, she'll be 102.

[Pedaling Fool]

Do you have any insite into Japanese knotweed? The plant is quickly choking out New England roadsides the same way that Kudzu is in the south.
No, but I'll read up on it and give you the real scope:D

BTW, here are a couple things that I love and shows just how little we know. Embrace the Ignorance.;)

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/dont-understand-universe-scientist-ideafestival-210306739.html

And don't forget not understanding consciousness https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/dont-understand-universe-scientist-ideafestival-210306739.html

[booney_1]

drones will deliver food and other supplies on demand.

there will be a lottery to thru-hike (like popular marathons today), with staggered starts..

improvements in battery technology (fuel cell?) will allow electric stoves...

[White Shimmer]

Safety first because... well... it's VERY American to overdo.

Street lighting along the path.
Scan-in and scan-out.
Rangers as numerous and as frequently seen as white blaze markers.
The whole trail angel/magic idea supplanted by commercial interests.
Blue light emergency phone kiosks (a' la at universities) at each white blaze.
Airlift-out options, paid for by Federal funding.

[kayak karl]

If man is still alive, If woman can survive

[Dogwood]

Thru-hiking the AT will not happen as a physical reality. Humans continuing to procreate at exponential rates will result in it's demise. The AT will be experienced as a Total Recall experience or the Euthanasia experience of Edward G. Robinson in Soylent Green.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOV8mBjHHYg

[Smoky Spoon]

Love both those movies, but to me, Soylent Green is a classic. Charlton Heston was the star wasn't he? Been too long since I have watched it....




Thru-hiking the AT will not happen as a physical reality. Humans continuing to procreate at exponential rates will result in it's demise. The AT will be experienced as a Total Recall experience or the Euthanasia experience of Edward G. Robinson in Soylent Green.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOV8mBjHHYg

[Dogwood]

Sadly, Edward G Robinson, one of the greats, passed on shortly after filming that scene.

[imscotty]

The AT will be where the last survivors on the east coast are holding out in their fight against SkyNet and the terminators. Where are you John Connor?

[Don H]

Ever seen the show "Life After People"? The AT will be overgrown having not seen a human in 25 years. All that remains are some faded blazes and rotten remnants of of a few shelters. The AT will be wild again.

[Sarcasm the elf]

It's good to see how many optimists we have on this site. :p

[Fredt4]

Permits, permits, permits.
Waiting lists, lotteries, reservations, and much discussion on this website as to how to get one.
But the trail itself will be fine.

I agree, trail hasn't changed as much as our gear.

[Starchild]

The AT corridor will be protected land and greatly valued by the people. The greatest protection will come from the love for the trail by people who live by it, not by legal means. It will be watched over and cared for as people wouod do so their own lands, as it is their own lands. The difference is they will know it in their hearts that it is theirs and ours and our children's, not some national park services land. It will help people learn and grow and it's influence will help society prosper.

How do i know it will happen by then, because it has already started. The great influx of people to travel the AT (and many other trails) that so many people are concerned about is not something negative but a great positive. It is a return to a synergistic relationship of humanity and nature, valuing and respecting others and nature.

The trail as always will be a combination of natural and man made. Some places will be kept natural and considered sacred , other places such as the 'rock garden' just south of VT 103 (basically a rock cairn 'village' - natural art work) will find their homes and be likewise honored as places for us to interact with nature, to stop and play on our journey, or to wander thru in amazement and wonder.

Will there be a hostel bed every night, I do not know, but it doesn't matter as those who don't want that does not have to stay there. There will be long sections however that can be done bed to bed as the trail will welcome her children home for who they are. In this even some form of LD handicap sections will exist.

And the AT will merge into the greater network of hiking trails, not standing out as it does now. Alternate routes for different purposes will be seen as the individuals journey. And yes I do see in that a deep woods trail, loved, cherished and preserved for what it is and for those who wish to travel there.

[Pedaling Fool]

Thru-hiking the AT will not happen as a physical reality. Humans continuing to procreate at exponential rates will result in it's demise. The AT will be experienced as a Total Recall experience or the Euthanasia experience of Edward G. Robinson in Soylent Green.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOV8mBjHHYgI never really paid much attention to Soylent Green, but that video seemed like a really nice way to be put down.

Much better than my idea for when I get old and decrepit, which is to go pick a fight with a grizzly.

[Traveler]

I agree, trail hasn't changed as much as our gear.

The more things change, the more they stay the same, as the adage goes. The trail remains the trail in its varied complexities. Our gear changes, our ages change, or reasons for doing what we do change, our mode of transportations change, but as technology changes around us we remain essentially the same much like the trail.

In 2051 the AT will vary from being too wet, too dry, icy, leaf covered, sun dappled, easy walking, difficult climbing, great views, limited views, seeing other people here and there, not seeing a soul for miles, venturing into town even with food in the pack because you have a hankering for a snickers, avoiding towns without much in your pack because you distain contact that day, wildlife sightings, not seeing a squirrel for 67 miles, looking forward to starting, looking forward to ending, sampling different foods along the way, avoiding different foods along the way, and sometimes getting sunburned.

The trail will be all these things in 2051, much as it is today. We as a species will be similar in how we embrace the trail with some defacing it, some embracing every foot, some helping to maintain it, some loathing that maintenance as being "impure", and all points in-between. The bottom line will remain. The trail will be there and so will we.

[Odd Man Out]

Thanks to climate change, my thru hike will start in February, giving me more time to finish which I will need since due to the miracle of modern medicine, I will be the 158th person to thru hike at the age of 90 or older. On my first night, at the 10 km markers, someone will see me eating diner and ask, "so how long will that cheese last before it spoils?"

[Odd Man Out]

Thanks to climate change, my thru hike will start in February, giving me more time to finish which I will need since due to the miracle of modern medicine, I will be the 158th person to thru hike at the age of 90 or older. On my first night, at the 10 km markers, someone will see me eating diner and ask, "so how long will that cheese last before it spoils?"

And one other thing, someone on Whiteblaze will resurrect a very old thread for a good laugh about how lame our prognostications were on future hiking.