View Full Version : Weather on Thru hike
First post on this great website. I'm considering a thru hike in the next few years. I read that only one in four thru hikes are completed. Who finishes depends alot on self motivation and staying healthy. However, weather has to play a huge part in the success rate also, right? This spring, the AT has been pounded with rain and storms which I think would make a horrible year for hiking. So how much does weather affect thru hike completions (not that you can control the weather). Does it make the hike more memorable to tell the grandkids or just miserable with the constant wet clothes? Just curious. Thanks!
Blissful
05-19-2011, 22:05
I suppose weather can affect the mental game of this hike which is what is boils down to anyway. As one hiker told me before my first hike, its 90% mental
It'll effect your thru-hike, but I honestly don't know if it'll change the success rate that much. I hiked in a really rainy year ('98), and the rain did one of two things to people... it either drove them mad, or it made them mad. In other words, they either let the rain get to them, or they became determined to not let the rain get to them.
While I haven't done an AT thru-hike, I have done an 11-month backpacking trip.
Good attitude and FLEXIBILITY is what will see you through.
It will NOT be as you expect, things will NOT go as you plan, planned schedules will NOT be met and will have to be altered.
The mountains will not flatten because you are having a tough day, so don't expect it, and don't get pissed when you have to climb them. The rain and cold will come, so accept that and always look for the silver lining - you will have plenty of water, and you will not sweat to death. Besides, cold weather means fewer bugs, rainy forests mean great photography weather, intensified colors, and the feeling of coziness when you finally do make it to the shelter or your tent.
You have the opportunity to learn and to alter your gear, depending on the conditions you are encountering - take advantage of both.
Finally, never decide that it is too much and you are going home on a miserable day. Promise yourself that you will only make that decision on a warm, sunny day. Then take a week or two to think about it. You took months or years to decide to attempt the hike, don't make the decision to quit in haste. That will be the only way that your decision will not be regretted.
Keep in mind that you have a fantastic opportunity when you start out. Many of us are very envious of you. Make it count!
Have fun!!!
Weather can have a huge impact if you are on a tight schedule. However, excess rain generally isn't a problem on the AT as most of the streams have bridges, but on other trails you might have to allow time to sit in one place for a day or two. Marching through snow every day can definitely impact your speed, but if you've allowed enough time weather shouldn't affect finishing. If it does, it's probably your attitude towards the weather, not the weather itself.
Many Walks
05-19-2011, 22:57
If you look at changing conditions on the trail from a positive light you'll realize when it rains water sources are plentiful, there are fewer bugs flying around you and it's cooler. Ya, there's always that part about everything being wet for days, mud is everywhere and the fording can be tricky to dangerous, but it's really no big deal.
Previous posters have it right. You'll get all sorts of weather and other conditions that are different every year. If you make the best of things and work through them with a positive outlook you'll be fine and enjoy your hike. If you try to fight it the trail will win, you'll be miserable and will most likely leave defeated. Enjoy your hike!
brian039
05-19-2011, 23:22
I hiked it in a dry, hot year. I got rained on maybe a dozen times and they were all on hot days except one day in the 100-mile wilderness and my climb up Katahdin (where it actually sleeted and snowed too!). I'd love to think I could finish it in a wet year but I honestly don't know if I could.
One weather phenomenon likely to derail a thru-hike are those times when monsoons set in in Maine. In high water some rivers and streams in Maine with no bridges become too dangerous to ford. In 2005 many NOBOs who normally would have completed a thru-hike ended up having to skip sections of trail when rivers and streams became un-fordable in large stretches of September and October that year because of way more rain than usual.
Does it(weather) make the hike more memorable to tell the grandkids or just miserable with the constant wet clothes? Just curious. Thanks! - Trail
Depends on your attitude/outlook/level of adaptability!
Every hike, I go in, knowing that my comfort zone will be tested! Once you know and accept that the better off you will be! After every new situation this is experienced and one adapts and learns to flow with it and overcome it it makes it that much easier next time to flow with it/adapt/overcome! My comfort zone expands on every hike! I can say this over and over but until you experience it and react you probably will not know the reality of this situation on a hike.
Bundle up in the blizzard. Stroll in the heat and humidity. Sidestep the rattlesnakes. Smile in the rain. Feel the rain on your face. Dance in the puddles. Never forget to dance. Know, that you are alive!
This topic was discussed amongst us last year - we had no rain but also no water in a lot of places which usually did so it's a bit of a trade off. Looking at recent data from ATC, back to 2004, the completion rate for NOBO'ers remains pretty constant at 26% -30%, However for SOBO'ers, it ranges from a low of 17% (2006) to a high of 27% (2008), a much broader gap (maybe due to a smaller sample size?). Data indicates that weather does not influence completion rates all that much especially for a NOBO hike. some question the validity of the ATC data but it's reasonable also to assume the error rate is constant year over year meaning that the completion rates ARE indeed very similar regardless of the year/weather.
Interestingly enough, I hiked a bit with Brian above and summitted with him. Although we were probably never 50 miles apart the whole trip, we had different experiences with the rain. I swear I got rained on every day in Va. by one of those "scattered isolated afternoon showers" and that SOB somehow missed them. that dude could stay dry in a rain forest.But he shared his Canadian Club in a plastic bottle with me at the Vermont state line so I let go of any hard feelings toward him at that point.:sun
While I haven't done an AT thru-hike, I have done an 11-month backpacking trip.
Good attitude and FLEXIBILITY is what will see you through.
It will NOT be as you expect, things will NOT go as you plan, planned schedules will NOT be met and will have to be altered.
The mountains will not flatten because you are having a tough day, so don't expect it, and don't get pissed when you have to climb them. The rain and cold will come, so accept that and always look for the silver lining - you will have plenty of water, and you will not sweat to death. Besides, cold weather means fewer bugs, rainy forests mean great photography weather, intensified colors, and the feeling of coziness when you finally do make it to the shelter or your tent.
You have the opportunity to learn and to alter your gear, depending on the conditions you are encountering - take advantage of both.
Finally, never decide that it is too much and you are going home on a miserable day. Promise yourself that you will only make that decision on a warm, sunny day. Then take a week or two to think about it. You took months or years to decide to attempt the hike, don't make the decision to quit in haste. That will be the only way that your decision will not be regretted.
Keep in mind that you have a fantastic opportunity when you start out. Many of us are very envious of you. Make it count!
Have fun!!!
That, sir, is well said. Definitely worth reading and pondering for all those considering a thru-hike.
long island bob
05-26-2011, 16:28
First post on this great website. I'm considering a thru hike in the next few years. I read that only one in four thru hikes are completed. Who finishes depends alot on self motivation and staying healthy. However, weather has to play a huge part in the success rate also, right? This spring, the AT has been pounded with rain and storms which I think would make a horrible year for hiking. So how much does weather affect thru hike completions (not that you can control the weather). Does it make the hike more memorable to tell the grandkids or just miserable with the constant wet clothes? Just curious. Thanks!
I am not a thru-hiker but I am a backpacker who has done a lot of research into thru-hiking.
The rule seems to be that it is about the hikers mentality, (attitude), mental toughness and willingness to pare-down weight, not about weather.
As a rule of thumb, if you can hike 2-3 weeks you will have experienced enough weather, blisters, re-supplying etc. that you're going to make it.
Nearly everyone who fails a thru-hike fails in the first 2-3 weeks.
Nearly everyone who is still hiking after 2-3 weeks makes it all the way unless money runs out or serious health issues occur.
depends on the temperatures. Wet and cold is the worst condition for anything, when hypothermia starts to creep into the picture, you want to be anywhere but on the trail. but there are many days on the AT later getting into the summer when being wet and hiking in the rain is very welcome, to give some relief from the heat.
but you are absolutely correct, the weather has a big impact on hiker's endurance. The heat and humidity can suck the life out of you on the trail.
i think where people get into trouble trying to thru hike, is feeling some kind of time or schedule pressure, worrying about x/miles per day, or trying to keep up with some other hikers... and not just enjoying the experience day by day. Hike your own hike, and take it one day at a time. Enjoy the experience!
Nearly everyone who fails a thru-hike fails in the first 2-3 weeks.
Nearly everyone who is still hiking after 2-3 weeks makes it all the way unless money runs out or serious health issues occur.
I think that may be overstating it a bit. According to the ATC, (http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:MptSUfLqKoMJ:www.appalachiantrail.o rg/about-the-trail/2000-milers+2004+2005+2006+2007+2008+2009+Katahdin,+Mai ne+233+217+200+184+241+252+Kennebec+Ferry,+Maine+% 28150+miles%29+163+161+154+141+N/A+N/A+Harpers+Ferry,+W.Va.+%281,170+miles%29+102+95+90 +94+122+124+Springer+Mountain,+Ga.+%282,100%2B+mil es%29+54+52+33+48+64+56&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com) in recent years about half the people who make it to Harpers Ferry leave the trail before Katahdin. Stated another way, about 1/4 of the people who start a northbound thru-hike will leave the trail between Harpers and Katahdin.
There are any number of reasons to leave the trail. I know of many cases of people leaving the trail because of excessive rain or snow or humidity (including within 100 miles of completing the trail,) so I think it's fairly common.
Blissful
05-26-2011, 20:51
In '07 I wanted to quit at Grafton Notch. All the way in Maine, having come from GA
The AT is a big mental game once must play to win :)
In '07 I wanted to quit at Grafton Notch. All the way in Maine, having come from GA
The AT is a big mental game once must play to win :)
year of a guy who quit (not injured) in Rangely. Not sure if that is a fact or not. Kind of reminded me of the people who leave college 10 credits shy of their degree.Getting off trail in Rangely is, to use the old AT cliche, definetly hiking your own hike.
Cookerhiker
05-27-2011, 08:28
One weather phenomenon likely to derail a thru-hike are those times when monsoons set in in Maine. In high water some rivers and streams in Maine with no bridges become too dangerous to ford. In 2005 many NOBOs who normally would have completed a thru-hike ended up having to skip sections of trail when rivers and streams became un-fordable in large stretches of September and October that year because of way more rain than usual.
Hmmm - I section hiked Gorham/Rt. 2-to-Katahdin from mid-August to mid-September in '05 and generally had good weather. I did zero one day (August 31) in Stratton when Hurricane Katrina hit. Sure, not every day was clear & sunny but I had great weather for the Gooses, Baldpates, Saddleback Range, Bigalows, Pleasant Pond & Moxie Bald, and the 100 mile wilderness. All the fords were manageable.
Summited a day ahead of schedule because of the forecast so my last day of AT hiking was between Abol Bridge and Katahdin Stream CG in the pouring stead rain. Perhaps that's when the excessively rainy weather began.
peakbagger
05-27-2011, 08:53
I am surprised the rainy hikers mantra didnt come up "no rain/no maine" ;)
Not everyday is going to be perfect and once in the "green tunnel" what does it matter if it rains on occasion. Granted it adds some challenge to ultralight tarp tenting and cooking dinner, but worse case there are shelters. I do agree after a few days of steady rain, its nice to get dried out, but realisitically, there arent many stretches with more than 3 days between hostels or towns (until you get up in NH and ME) if you need to dry out.
Slo-go'en
05-27-2011, 09:29
This spring, the AT has been pounded with rain and storms which I think would make a horrible year for hiking.
Actually, the hiking was pretty pleasent this spring. All in all, the weather seemed to be somewhat warmer with less rainy days this spring then usual. The storms which did come by (about once a week) blew by quickly and usually came and went overnight. In the 45 days I was on the trail this spring, I only had to hike in a light rain or fog a hand full of times.
Personally, I can deal with the usual spring time weather of lots of cool, drizzlely days better then I can deal with the heat and humidity of summer.
When your stummbling through PA, nearly passing out from heat stroke, you really start to appreciate those cold, rainy days of spring in NC!
LIhikers
05-27-2011, 10:11
I was out for several weeks earlier this year, on a different trail, and it rained every day except 2. Once I became resigned to the fact of being wet it wasn't too bad. Like so many other things you have no control over you either put up and deal with it, or not. Of course the "or not" makes some people leave the trail and go home.
For me, the most important thing about hiking in rain is to make sure I stay warm enough.
kayak karl
05-27-2011, 10:32
your an idiot, don't even try
When I was taking kids out on trips during the summer in the Whites, weather was always a consideration. We used to do a 3-day Presidential traverse, and I have probably done that trip close do a dozen times. We never had 3 days without rain, sometimes having to make a mad dash below tree-line to get out of a sudden thunderstorm. Once we retreated to the long-since-gone Edmonds Col Emergency Shelter, which saved our bacon. Unfortunately, the AMC took it down because a bunch of fools were using it as a planned shelter.