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Blissful
06-01-2011, 12:01
Well we've pretty much made the decision to punt this to next year. The long term weather is not looking favorable right now for any significant melting for some time, and since we don't have high altitude experience under our belt, let alone in high snow and high river crossings, we will hope for next year. I mean it can't get any worse. :) We'll probably use the airline ticket we could lose to see people in FL this fall and go do the Long Trail instead this July.

Many, many thanks for all the great advice and support and will see you all next year.

:):)

Helmuth.Fishmonger
06-01-2011, 15:10
Wise decision - the mountains will be there another year.

Things could get much worse: just have one of the Mono Craters become active again, or have Mammoth Mountain blow off some steam with a big old caldera blowout like Mono Lake was... but then that's all rather unlikely ;-)

Sly
06-01-2011, 15:25
You could probably hike it in September with no problem. Great weather, fewer bugs, easier fords and a lot less hikers.

WingedMonkey
06-01-2011, 15:51
I'm not hiking the JMT this year either.

Helmuth.Fishmonger
06-01-2011, 15:53
You could probably hike it in September with no problem. Great weather, fewer bugs, easier fords and a lot less hikers.


almost correct, but the "a lot less hikers" is not always true. In fact, last time I was out in September (2008 started 9-12 northbound) was the busiest I have ever seen the trail. Everyone was thinking the same - fewer bugs, stable weather, less hikers, gotta get the hike in before the last resupply dates at MTR, which that year was a very early date due to Florence Lake being totally drained that fall. Perhaps that was the primary reason for meeting 50 hikers a day. I've hiked entire days in mid July wihtout meeting a single hiker on the JMT...

ChinMusic
06-01-2011, 16:26
I'm still on for my section between Tuolumne and the Valley with my daughter starting 7/18. Haven't purchased the plane tickets yet. Only come close to 10K (not that one) a couple times and don't mind a little section of snow. I'm hoping for a little "curiosity snow" for my daughter.

Good call Blissful. You got next year.

Blissful
06-01-2011, 18:33
You could probably hike it in September with no problem. Great weather, fewer bugs, easier fords and a lot less hikers.

Can't. :) Hubby can only do it in July as that is his vacation time

Blissful
06-01-2011, 18:37
Iand don't mind a little section of snow. I'm hoping for a little "curiosity snow" for my daughter.

Good call Blissful. You got next year.

Thanks. From what I am seeing on other forums, looks like the place is gonna be covered well into July. Hopefully by the time you hike there it will be better. Like to hear the report of your hike afterwards. Good luck :)

>>Oops just saw where you are going. You should be fine to go I'd think, in that area. For us it was everything south from Tuolumne.

Blissful
06-01-2011, 19:58
Saw on a PCT journal reports of sleet in the Mojave desert all day. Shows how weird it is out there this year.

Phreak
06-01-2011, 21:14
I'm starting the JMT SOBO on August 12th. Sounds like there will be quite a bit of snow on the passes this year.

Dogwood
06-01-2011, 21:47
I'm going to make a prediction. Things, trail conditions included, will get better not worse! We will experience a rapid switching of gears in weather sometime soon in June from the rather long cold/cool spring weather we have been having to consistently much warmer weather where the days are constantly getting longer and significantly warmer resulting in the typical Sierra melt off starting around mid June. This will have consequences such as higher snowmelt runoff resulting in some higher stream/creek fords on the JMT and longer snow travel distances likely early in the JMT thru-hiking season but decreasing as the warmer weather continues and increases. This year's additional snow accumulations will last longer on northern, eastern, and shady slopes, passes, and chutes, but exactly how long the snow lasts or how extensive the snow travel will be is, again, dependent on consistely warm weather and how warm it gets.

JMT trail conditions will significantly change during the month of June. Vastly different trail conditions will be experienced in the Sierras/JMT when comparing late May/early June conditions with early July/mid July conditions. You heard it from me!

Big Daddy D
06-01-2011, 22:08
I am going to start SOBO from YNP o/a 2 August so that I can climb Mt Whitney this year. During my section hike in 2009, I didn't have enough food to divert to Whitney without having to go to Lone Pine, etc.

My hike plan was to hike from KMS to Mammoth without re-supply.

I also am looking forward to VVR, Red's Meadow, Mammoth Lake, and KMS.

Since I hiked all the JMT in July 09, I don't think it will be any real problem in August. However, I am bringing my Katoola Mini Spikes!

Blissful
06-01-2011, 22:47
I'm going to make a prediction. Things, trail conditions included, will get better not worse! We will experience a rapid switching of gears in weather sometime soon in June from the rather long cold/cool spring weather we have been having to consistently much warmer weather where the days are constantly getting longer and significantly warmer resulting in the typical Sierra melt off starting around mid June. This will have consequences such as higher snowmelt runoff resulting in some higher stream/creek fords on the JMT and longer snow travel distances likely early in the JMT thru-hiking season but decreasing as the warmer weather continues and increases. This year's additional snow accumulations will last longer on northern, eastern, and shady slopes, passes, and chutes, but exactly how long the snow lasts or how extensive the snow travel will be is, again, dependent on consistely warm weather and how warm it gets.

JMT trail conditions will significantly change during the month of June. Vastly different trail conditions will be experienced in the Sierras/JMT when comparing late May/early June conditions with early July/mid July conditions. You heard it from me!

Helmuth posted on another thread a weather update with more snow predicted next week for higher elevations, like 8 inches. No real significant warm-up I see through June 15, and with the amt of snow, it's too slow a real melt for our start July 7th. Hence our punt. If there had been warmer weather earlier on instead of the cold spring and further snows, it would have been different. And I just don't want to hike my only JMT in miles upon miles of snow. Worrying about self arresting. Snow cups. Life and limb. I don't mind some snow. But not 40 feet. I want to enjoy this. Not worry that I won't come home.

Oh well. Better luck next year for us. But I'd stay optimistic for those mid July on.

wythekari
06-02-2011, 01:13
Not predicting what it will be like later in the summer but it snowed in the Sierras today and storms still rolling in this weekend.

mweinstone
06-02-2011, 08:40
this was a hike i had popcorn made for. dammit! i had planned to live vicariusly thru you while on your hike as a cheap alternative to the rising costs of springer feaver inoculations and there associated lack of insurance coverage. salavi. i am...le, sad.

Buffalo Skipper
06-02-2011, 08:53
Blissful, sorry to hear you had to make the call, but given your time constraints, it was probably the good one.

Let us know if you plan to firm up your plans for the LT or anywhere else. I'll look for your journals. :)

sbhikes
06-02-2011, 10:27
Saw on a PCT journal reports of sleet in the Mojave desert all day. Shows how weird it is out there this year.

Also shows how ignorant most people are about the desert, too. It's damn cold in the desert. Sometimes it's damn cold and broiling hot at the same time.

Cookerhiker
06-02-2011, 11:17
Also shows how ignorant most people are about the desert, too. It's damn cold in the desert. Sometimes it's damn cold and broiling hot at the same time.

A friend of mine on a motorcycling trip experienced sleet through Death Valley 3 days ago.

ChinMusic
06-02-2011, 11:43
Sometimes it's damn cold and broiling hot at the same time.
That's how I am in a hammock.

Living in a high humidity environment all my life, I'm not used to the low humidity out there. I remember getting out of a pool in 100+ weather and suddenly feeling cold like a cold front had just blown through. I look up the the sky in reflex only to feel the blast of the sun again as the water evaporated.

sbhikes
06-02-2011, 20:53
Yeah. I call that being freezing hot.

Dogwood
06-03-2011, 00:36
You are absolutely right Sbhikes. Deserts are not always hot. Some are low elevation. Some are relatively high elevation. Some experience exterme temp and weather ranges. Some are relatively cold like the Gobi Desert.