predicting weather relating to start date

[Megapixel]

If you were going to head out on a NOBO thru and wanted to base your start date on the recent snowfall as well as the predicted upcoming weather patterns to maximize your chances for a decent start weather and temperature wise, what source or sources would you use? I'm not looking for someone to tell me what date to start on here, just what you deem a reliable source for gathering accurate data. I thought as far as a weather report on the winter, I could ask on whiteblaze or call a hostel in GA. Thoughts, other sources?

Thanks in advance.

[Ironbelly]

Not sure exactly what your trying to find out here. Just pick a date and plan to start that day, don't let the weather be a deciding factor as soon enough you will be hiking in it anyway.

But weatherunderground.net has a snow depth map if that is what you were looking for.

[JAK]

I think he is asking for available sources of information on things like...

1. Long term climate norms and extremes - now. temperatures, precipitation, snow accumulation
2. 14 day outlook - 0-2 weeks prior to start date. temperatures, precipitation, snow accumulation
3. Trail conditions - 0-2 weeks prior to start date. snow, ice, mud, water, trees, washouts.

With this data he can make possible revisions to his plan in terms of, expected rate of travel, days and food between resupply points, alternate resupply points, alternate exit points, and possible last minute gear changes, one way or the other. Even without changes, good stuff to know.

Best sources?

[Pedaling Fool]

You just gotta hope for the best, there's really no good source of weather info, especially for the mountains. So many times I remember experiencing bad weather and walking DOWN into town (it's always a long down hill walk) and being much nicer, weather wise. The best you can do is not leave during a major large scale storm.

[Slo-go'en]

If you want to maximize your chances of good weather and mild temps, plan to leave in mid April. Then fine tune your exact start date depending on the forcast at that time.

Since forcasts are only reasonably accruate for maybe 5 days in advance, you could pick a 7 day window of when you want to start and then be ready to start out at the begining of the best weather window during that week.

I like to try and time the start of a hike when there will be at least a couple of nice days to start. I think that worked out maybe once...

[mdp9]

Megapixel- I have been looking for the same thing for the past several months, to no avail. I'm taking the tactic of planning leaving in early April, and staying open to pushing it back a week or so if it looks like it will be cold and snowy at that time.

If anyone knows of a website that tracks temperature and precip for the trail in Georgia, I will award you with a gold star and 50 points.

[hikerboy57]

just watch the goundhog. hes just as reliable as any ling term weather prediction

[Stir Fry]

I have done Springer to Fontana 2X one start was March 6th and the second time April 3. April was a lot nicer. It was only about 10* warmer at night, but 15*-20* during the day. The days also warm up a lot faster in April. Cold was gone by about 10 am. March stayed cold most of the day. March nights went into the teens, with days in the 30. April nights were arround freezing about 28* or so with April days around 45* or so, even saw some 50's.
Rain, sleet or snow, at any time in early spring, but it does not last long.

Plan for some bad weather in the Smokies I have done it 3 Xs but its was May all three times. Even then I had Ice and Snow at some time during the hike.

[johnnybgood]

Here's a up-to-date weather source not mentioned ; www.sophiaknows.com/atdb/weather.php (http://www.sophiaknows.com/atdb/weather.php)

[One Half]

I use this one. Saw a woolly Bear caterpillar with a long brown center, almost the whole thing. Mild winter.


Do Woolly Bear Caterpillars Forecast Winter Weather?
According to legend, the wider that middle brown section is (i.e., the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. Conversely, a narrow brown band is said to predict a harsh winter.


or you can use this one

http://www.presspubs.com/kanabec/opinion/columns/article_a8f6f724-e568-11e0-be73-001cc4c03286.html

Hardly seen any acorns in our area this year and we have a tree or 20 that love to shed them!

or my favorite, the old farmers almanac!
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/08/29/2012-us-winter-forecast/


I think you just have to pick a date, prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and be ready to be flexible if the weather gets really bad.

[stranger]

It's not a weekend hike...the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do. I don't care what anyone tells you, your best chance of decent weather is a start date at Springer after the 15th of April, all things considered, generally speaking. However I left Springer on March 2nd 1995 and other than the first week, had very little rain, but a few real cold nights. I left Springer on April 9th 2008 and ran into snow two weeks later in the Smokies. The earlier the start date, the more unsettled the weather - on average.

[Mike2012]

Not sure exactly what your trying to find out here. Just pick a date and plan to start that day, don't let the weather be a deciding factor as soon enough you will be hiking in it anyway.

But weatherunderground.net has a snow depth map if that is what you were looking for.

I use that site alot but also NOAA.gov has maps that are good for a few days to a week in advance. Accuweather has some interesting video blogs. On WU you can also watch the GFS, NAM and other model maps and get some idea of a week or so into the future. Sometimes the meteorologists at these sites can see a pattern change indicating a switch of the over all weather patterns. I've used information gleaned from these sites to help me plan my outdoor activities for years.

[postholer.com]

Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters, senior meteorologist at weatherunderground.com:


"I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I usually shrug and ask them to catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a random forecast. Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as there is too much that we don't know."

The point is, if you're trying to attempt to do what every forecaster is unable to do, you might be in for a formidable task! :)

However, if you want to follow along and see how the winter unfolds, here are all the NOAA overlays on the postholer google map, with trail trace.

(hint: these are always yesterdays date. If you change the the '1' in the url to a date, ie, ...depth=20100401, you'll get the overlay for that date.)

Snow Water Equivalence (SWE):
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&swe=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&swe=1)

Snow depth:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&depth=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&depth=1)

Snow coverage:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&cover=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&cover=1)

24 hour snow precip:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&sday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&sday=1)

24 hour non-snow precip:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&rday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&rday=1)

24 hour snow melt:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&meltday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&meltday=1)

24 hour average snow pack temp:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&tmpday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&tmpday=1)

Snow density:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&density=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&density=1)

24 hour SWE change:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&sweday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&sweday=1)

24 hour surface snow sublimation:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&subday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&subday=1)

24 hour blowing snow sublimation:
http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=3&bsubday=1 (http://postholer.com/gmap/gmap.php?trail_id=1&bsubday=1)

-postholer

[Megapixel]

thanks all for the links, i will check them out. this was exactly what i was looking for, thanks JAK. indeed, i have hiked some distance before and am well aware of the unpredictability of the weather... just hoping to maximize the the opening week as my start date is somewhat flexible. aiming towards late march, early april.