View Full Version : pack weight as a thru-completion predictor?
Glory Bound
04-01-2005, 17:05
Is it me, or do more of those that start the trail with a lightweight pack finish a contiguous thru than those that have heavier packs?
can it be seen as a predictor of mental preparedness for real conditions?
I'm just curious if others feel this way too, or are there better predictors that you can think of?
Glory Bound
NOBO '05
can't wait till MAY 1!!!
I don't think there is a tried and true correlation between packweight and completing a thru. Getting from one terminus to the other is mostly about mental conditioning that most people have in them and develop further over the course of their walk. A light pack will not help you when your walking thru 3 weeks of rain nor will it benefit you when you've grown so tired of Lipton noodles, you'd rather eat tree bark.
I do believe that it indirectly correlates though. A lighter pack means being more comfortable while hiking, helping you get up that hill more easily and that can help your mental outlook. Then again going lite may force folks to be more uncomfortable in camp and may lead to less sleep, more aches and pains and a bad mental outlook for the next day.
A lighter pack can often help your chances against getting injured or overly fatigued, which will not increase your chances for sucess, but will help to limit factors that will take you off the trail.
When it comes down to it, its about what your carrying in your head and heart, not in your pack
"ME & U"
04-01-2005, 18:10
Agreed!
I feel the more you know the less you have to carry!
I started my thru with way more than I needed and ended up blowing out a knee on the third day. I crept along for bout 15 days in agony and in my mind I pressed through the pain. The only thing that saved my trip was my stuborness! (and "ME")
I believe in my body! And my mind! The rest is extra weight and I constantly work on ways to lose more of it.
Humbling is the thought nothingness... the greatest predictor is you man!
What do you predict?
Stoke yourself bro and go for the gusto! Just remember to take the lightest load you can and yourself will thank you.
Spirit Walker
04-01-2005, 18:17
Nope - it MAY make for a more comfortable hike, and it MAY reduce your chance of injury -- but there are still a lot of folks with 50-70 pound packs who make it all the way and people with 20 pound packs who go home before Fontana. The mental aspect is most important. And there are other things that affect comfort and injury besides pack weight (i.e. knees, feet, tendons etc. can go out for a lot of other reasons). Even the preparation aspect that would seem to predict success -- that is, a hiker who packs lighter is someone who has spent some time preparing for the trail -- doesn't necessarily mean success. I've known several people who spent months getting the 'perfect' gear - and they still went home by Hot Springs. It's a head game. Gear is really pretty irrelevant in terms of predicting who will go all the way or not.
Nope - it MAY make for a more comfortable hike, and it MAY reduce your chance of injury -- but there are still a lot of folks with 50-70 pound packs who make it all the way and people with 20 pound packs who go home before Fontana. The mental aspect is most important. And there are other things that affect comfort and injury besides pack weight (i.e. knees, feet, tendons etc. can go out for a lot of other reasons). Even the preparation aspect that would seem to predict success -- that is, a hiker who packs lighter is someone who has spent some time preparing for the trail -- doesn't necessarily mean success. I've known several people who spent months getting the 'perfect' gear - and they still went home by Hot Springs. It's a head game. Gear is really pretty irrelevant in terms of predicting who will go all the way or not.
I have seen someone with a sub 20 Lb pack leave the trail before Hot Springs, and I transcribed a journal for someone who hiked with a 45+ Lb pack who made it all the way.
#1 stated that they were "simply tired of hiking EVERYDAY"
#2 stated they were "sad the hiking had ended"
While it seems to be true that a lighter pack will help you have a better hike, without a proper mental attitude you ain't gonna make it.
I quit a section hike because of a "bad attitude", hiked all of 30 miles of a planned 100 mile hike because I "couldn't get into the hike". The pack was 20 Lbs lighter than the previous 80 mile hike, made no difference.
Doctari.
i started in georgia with a 60 lb alice combat packin may 2001 .my pack is usaully no more than 22 llbs now,half of that is water,fuel and food, i resupply average every 4 days,take it from me,60 lb packs suck,i met hungry howie my first night on the trail in may 2001,i went by the trail name lone wolf,ditched that name to many lone wolfs,grey wolfs and so forth,lighter is easier,ulttra light options have really improved last couple of years,lots of ultra light gear made by ultra light hikers,my personal favorites are,jacksrbetter,dancing light gear,antigravity gear,ultra light adventers,fanatic fringe.ed speer,:cool: neo
Mountain Dew
04-01-2005, 20:35
I started with 73 lbs. in 2003 and finished with around 50+.
jmaclennan
04-02-2005, 21:10
of course, there are those with heavy packs who make it and those with light packs who don't. however, i'd say that all else being equal (motivation/attitude, luck, preparedness, etc.), the lighter a person's pack (to a point, obviously) the greater their chance.
Of course there are people whose toughness overcomes their choice of gear. However, I would assert that those who carry a lightweight rig have an easier time of hiking than those who carry a heavyweight rig. Personally, I have come to accept that I am a soft hiker and that in order to do certain things I just can't make the trip harder than it must be. Therefore, I cut gearweight as much as I (reasonably) can.
If you look upon the AT as a sort of merit badge or trophy to be put upon your wall (next to the the plasma TV), then carrying a light pack will be very advantageous and will help you gain those 10 pieces of silver. I carry a light pack because it is less work than a heavy pack. Cheaper as well. And hikers that carry a light pack smell better, and hence get more chicks, than those that carry pigs on their backs.
Footslogger
04-03-2005, 11:55
I started at around 44 lbs and ended right at 26 lbs. Was that drop in pack weight the reason I finished ?? Probably not. Finishing things I start is just something I am wired to do. Truth be told, by the time that pack weight made any real difference I was in good enough shape to carry the heavier load.
NOW ...did carrying the lighter pack make my hike a tad easier and more enjoyable ...OH HELL YES !! So, I'm still really glad that I lightened up along the way.
These old muscles and bones have been through a lot in 55 years and anything I can do these days to give them a break is welcome relief. The wife and I are planning another AT thru-hike in the not to distant future. Just as in 2003, I believe I will finish that hike. Injuries aside, I believe that hikers who finish the trail most likely go all the way regardless of pack weight.
'Slogger
AT 2003
The Old Fhart
04-03-2005, 12:10
Footslogger-"So, I'm still really glad that I lightened up along the way."I think it would help a lot of hikers to lighten up a little. :D
As with Chris, I am a bit of a wimp. The less weight I carry, the easier it is for me. Being lazy, I like the idea of less weight! To heck with being tough, I just want to enjoy my hike. :)
(As for as attracting woman...I don't know about that. At least it has never worked for me. Then again, maybe Chris has a better looking mug than me? :) )
Thats the only reason I switched to ultralight gear, but it hasn't paid off yet.
Damn SOBO's get all the girls
Its not the weight its the "baggage"!
a lightweight pack & a HEAVYWEIGHT DOSE of determination...probably gets most to Mt. K...
i've "lightened uP" each year about 5lbs or so....
started with almost 50lbs...down to 35lbs (including food & water)
but, i'm a SECTION-HIKER...so, i'm sure i'm gonna make it to Katahdin....only....15 more years to go! hehehehehehe! :p
clubswingerUG
06-19-2005, 15:31
any thing less than 30 lbs your slackin
Tha Wookie
06-19-2005, 15:50
There are just too many factors to rely on packweight as a strong predictor, however, I do think it could be used if you sampled enough hikers. Certainly, less weight enables a body to move better under its own force.
I do suspect if you used a regression model to plot the completed hikes against the packweights, then you would find a high-end threshold, where at an approximate high weight you would see a significant drop in completions, like for instance, at 50 lbs.
But you have so many confounding variables, like the frame, build, and fat ratio of the person, their age, their gumption.... i don't think they've figured out a way to measure gumption yet.
It would get messy real fast. Trust your heart, drink a lot of water, and packweight will not make a significant difference....
by the way, my pack weighs about 13 lbs. dry weight with 4 lbs of camera gear included. When I first started thru-hiking it weighed almost 19 lbs. For me personally, I might have been able to hike with a monsterous load all the way, but why?
Leave behind the possessions that possess you.
Alligator
06-19-2005, 16:05
Pack weight as a percentage of body weight. Use logistic regression, Complete Yes/Complete No.
Bolivershagnasty
06-19-2005, 16:56
geez guys,, to tell you the truth if you packing more than 30 lbs these days you havent been to the outfitter is years! good lord people you would have to be packing in winter to get a pack over 15 base weight. why the hell could you be carrying a 50+ pack? I think pack weight is the clue. If I were going to do a thru I would plan on the ligthest weight I could without being told. :You cant get ;heavy gear any more can you? hell I'm like 10 lbs plus food/ water and I havvent cared..anything more than 30 s ridiculas
Blue Jay
06-19-2005, 17:08
geez guys,, to tell you the truth if you packing more than 30 lbs these days you havent been to the outfitter is years! good lord people you would have to be packing in winter to get a pack over 15 base weight. why the hell could you be carrying a 50+ pack? I think pack weight is the clue. If I were going to do a thru I would plan on the ligthest weight I could without being told. :You cant get ;heavy gear any more can you? hell I'm like 10 lbs plus food/ water and I havvent cared..anything more than 30 s ridiculas
One things for sure, this guy does not carry a book or pen or paper.
Bolivershagnasty
06-19-2005, 20:48
No I don't carry a "book or pen or paper", I don't carry anything more than I need other than a Glock 29. Which weighs less than a lb.
justusryans
06-19-2005, 21:14
You don't need that either. guns are for people who are scared.
Tha Wookie
06-19-2005, 23:39
No I don't carry a "book or pen or paper", I don't carry anything more than I need other than a Glock 29. Which weighs less than a lb.
yes, but doesn't the ammo add up?
Or are you the kind of guy who carries just one bullet?
I guess hollow points are kind of minimalist... i never thought of it that way.
squirrel bait
06-19-2005, 23:50
LOL that's a good one. I too never thought of hollow points that way. Doesn't the freedom of having extra food/water allow for a greater range of options (where to camp/how long to hike)?
Programbo
07-18-2005, 19:53
Sorry I`m late getting in here..I used to carry a rather heavy pack but I "trained" with a much heavier pack than that so that the "heavy" pack actually felt light compared to the weight I trained with ..By training I mean all through my teens I had a huge newspaper route..Like 525 papers and it was about 7 miles of walking..Lots of ups and down..I`d start at 3:00AM..I`d serve my route wearing a 70 pound pack so the 50 pounds I`d have in my pack when hiking seemed light..But that was way way way back in the 70`s and maybe food stops were more spaced out and equipment in general was heavier
Many good points, and a couple of funny ones too. I must admit my gear is mostly 10years and older and these days collecting dust, but what I remember is weight and comfort are 2 different things. I'd rather carry 35 in my old pack, than 25 in some; BTDT. And I don't carry 35 'cause I'm tough either. I love my camping comforts, makes the trip just that more enjoyable. Different body types, degree of fitness, attitude, etc., mean more than a number on the scale.
Jester2000
07-19-2005, 20:43
Started my AT hike in 2000 with a pack that weighed 50-60 lbs. Finished with a pack that weighed 50-60 pounds. I remember fondly the bitching in the first register in the 100 Mile Wilderness, as hikers added extra food and whatnot for the endrun.
I wonder if this question of a link between packweight and completion is just a none-too-subtle attempt to suggest that lighter is better, and that lighter packs = more experience = smarter hiker.
But of course there's no way to get any meaningful data on the subject, for reasons already mentioned by others. And I don't know why someone would think, as mentioned in another post, that lighter equals cheaper. I would think it's the opposite, unless you're making your own gear.
Of course, a lighter pack will most likely make the hiking easier and more comfortable. Then again, it will most likely make the camping less comfortable, an important consideration when hiking for six months, particularly when your mental state is as important as your physical state.
In the end, I guess everyone should choose gear that is best for them, though I will say that looking for a balance, rather that the extreme, should be a guiding principle.
Another guiding principle for lightweight folks should be: don't expect to borrow my stuff. Don't expect to look at my maps or guidebooks, don't expect to use my duct tape, stove, neosporin, kite, first aid kit, headlamp, or anything else YOU obviously decided before the trip that you did not need. That may sound mean, but I'm not getting paid to be a sherpa, and it kind of galls to hear someone brag about their packweight and then want to use the things I carry.
And don't expect me to be happy about the constant noise from your emergency blanket.
Another guiding principle for lightweight folks should be: don't expect to borrow my stuff. Don't expect to look at my maps or guidebooks, don't expect to use my duct tape, stove, neosporin, kite,
Kite?!! I think I would just enjoy watching you flying it. :rolleyes:
dougmeredith
07-20-2005, 09:55
And I don't know why someone would think, as mentioned in another post, that lighter equals cheaper. I would think it's the opposite, unless you're making your own gear
I agree. Getting lighter gear sure hasn't been cheaper for me. I replaced $100 bag with $300 bag.
Doug
A kite? :-? A kite! :) It all makes sense now- I must get a kite! :jump Thanks Jester
Jack Tarlin
07-20-2005, 13:13
People should carry whatever they feel they need and whatever they're comfortable with. I've met guys who were forced off the Trail early partly because of their monster packs and subsequent fatigue/injury; I've met guys who quite early who left Springer with 25 pounds. Likewise, I've met folks who are perfectly happy to carry huge packs and don't want to give anything up.
Just about everyone carries something that other folks would question or laught at. People should carry whatever they please and make up their own minds about what is important or "vital."
Is there a realtion between pack size and one's chances of completing a thru-hike? Maybe. Are lightweight hikers better prepared and more likely to stick things out? Maybe. But then again, maybe the lack of some creature comforts (or such things as extra clothes, etc.) causes some of these folks to quit earlier, too. In the end, what's in your head matters a helluva lot more than what's on your back. People should pack whatever they damned please and not give a whole lot of thought to what other folks may think.....the same folks who make fun of your camp chair or extra-thick sleping pad probably wish to hell they had one of their own, and would, in all likelihood, borrow or use yours in a heartbeat if it was offerred.
Lots of guys with 60 pound packs don't make it to Maine.
Neither do lots of guys with 27 pound packs.
Carry what you like and like what you carry, it'll all work out.