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Slo-go'en
08-31-2012, 10:06
Once I got to the "Maine Junction" on the Long Trail on 8/20, I started to run into a lot of AT NOBO's. And as I finished the LT the other day, there were still some just getting into Vermont.

I noticed that most of these guys are the ones who like to sleep in and are rarely on the trail before 10 AM. More often then not, when I left a shelter in the morning all the "thru hikers" were still in the bag snoring.

I try telling them they need to get thier act in gear if they expect to finish, but no, they all think they have pleanty of time left. Oh yeah, good luck!

max patch
08-31-2012, 10:29
If an average hiker isn't in Hanover by now they need to think about a flip.

Cookerhiker
08-31-2012, 10:31
I wondered the same thing on my '07 LT thruhike (http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=204988) and I hit the AT/LT portion even later than you did; started hiking SOBO from Rt. 4 on Sept. 3. I remember one guy in particular saying he had calculated he "only" had to average 17 mpd to reach Katahdin. Trying to remain non-judgemental, all I advised was that the Whites & early Maine were rather difficult at that pace, even for thruhikers, and that planning on 20 mpd in the "easier" sections would be wise.

I have no idea how many of them made it.

HikerMom58
08-31-2012, 10:33
Ahhh.... I can't imagine how tired they must be by now....so close tho!!

jakedatc
08-31-2012, 10:36
well you figure they have all of sept and call it half of oct.. so 6 weeks.. 500mi or so they still have to crank out 11-12mpd with no zero's. that group sounds like the kind that will hut hop across the whites which will slow that down. a few good cold days might wake them up a bit. or they don't make it... that's what happens.

max patch
08-31-2012, 10:46
well you figure they have all of sept and call it half of oct..

They shouldn't plan on arriving at Baxter 10/15 and expect to hike up K -- trails may be closed due to weather. 10/5 would be the latest I'd want to reach Baxter -- if trails are closed then they have a good week+ for conditions to change.

jakedatc
08-31-2012, 10:53
well yea.. i was thinking best case.. no early weather etc. they definitely need to get in gear or flip

10-K
08-31-2012, 11:07
I saw the same thing. I guess if after hiking that far they can't plan the last 500 miles whatever happens is what happens.

tdoczi
08-31-2012, 11:18
i cant help but wonder if some of these people arent the same hikers who were in harpers ferry in july and allegedly had nothing to worry about time wise.

WingedMonkey
08-31-2012, 11:45
Even when other hikers mean well, it can become very irritating to be told you ain't gonna make it. Hell I had someone telling me that as early as Pearisburg (he was wrong). An "old timer" that I now get a kick out of posting to WB that he would never tell anyone how to hike.

:sun

Jeff
08-31-2012, 12:27
It's typically 5 to 6 weeks from Manchester, VT to Katahdin...so folks in Vermont can reasonably do it. There are reports of dozens of NOBO's south of here.

The one issue that could ruin a thruhike for these folks so far away is injury or sickness. There are still reports of that Noro-vlrus in Andover and Rangeley. For hikers cutting it close, spending a week fighting a bug and regaining strength would make it tough to finish this year.

10-K
08-31-2012, 12:37
Even when other hikers mean well, it can become very irritating to be told you ain't gonna make it. Hell I had someone telling me that as early as Pearisburg (he was wrong). An "old timer" that I now get a kick out of posting to WB that he would never tell anyone how to hike.

:sun

I would never tell someone they weren't going to make it....

DavidNH
08-31-2012, 14:13
slo goen... if a north bound through hiker is still in Vermont as of the end of August, he isn't going to make it to Katahdin in time, unless he's a very fast hiker (in which case why would he be still in Vermont)? Just getting through Maine (281 miles) can take upwards of a month, and New Hampshire is worth near two weeks. That puts the hiker in Baxter in Mid-October.. a time when winter conditions are often fast approaching or perhaps already present over 5,000 feet. You don't mess with the weather conditions in the Whites or in the northern Maine Mountains.

it seems really odd to me that by the time one is in northern New England some folks still sleep till 10 am? That's crazy and indicates to me a lot of laziness or fatigue. Such a late start FORCES one to hike fast and long to make up for lost time. What will they do with the decreasing hours of daylight in September? Major problem!

10-K
08-31-2012, 14:31
David, do you really think it would take someone who has hiked from Springer to Maine a month to hike 281 miles? That's less than 10 miles a day..

Not trying to be argumentative or anything but that seems very slow.

<I went from Bear Mt., NY to Katahdin in exactly 42 days.>

HikerMom58
08-31-2012, 15:50
I really hope they can make it, it would be so disappointing for them not to make it b/c they ran out of time without realizing it before it was too late.

BTW... 10-K.. I hope you don't mind me saying this but you and a few others on this site stand out to me as being able to express your opinion and thoughts without being argumentative or rude. It's refreshing to say the least.:D It looks like you have completed a lot of trails, as well, so you also have a lot of solid first hand knowledge to share with everyone on this site. It's great!!

pyroman53
08-31-2012, 16:14
10-K.. I hope you don't mind me saying this but you and a few others on this site stand out to me as being able to express your opinion and thoughts without being argumentative or rude. It's refreshing to say the least.:D It looks like you have completed a lot of trails, as well, so you also have a lot of solid first hand knowledge to share with everyone on this site. It's great!!

+1 true dat

SCRUB HIKER
08-31-2012, 16:22
I saw the same thing. I guess if after hiking that far they can't plan the last 500 miles whatever happens is what happens.

Exactly. It doesn't matter. You can start a WB thread about how stupid all of these people are and preach to the choir, or you can say nothing. In this case, since their behavior is of so little consequence to anyone else, it's probably better to say nothing.

For the record, I know someone who was still in Vermont at this time last year who fits your description perfectly--lackadaisical and a late riser, and she plodded along and made it. It's still possible. And for the people who don't make it, so what? I bet they had some serious fun and made some great friends along the way. It's not like fast hikers and finishers don't also experience the same, but I'm just saying--they probably had as good a time on the Trail as the rest of us.

10-K
08-31-2012, 16:36
Some of these people still in Vermont also probably didn't start till some time in April or May so they are moving along pretty good clip if that's the case.

500 miles in 30 days should be nothing to a thru who has made it that far if they decide that they do want to finish.

Ps thanks for the kind words..

10-K
08-31-2012, 16:40
500 miles in 27 days with three zeros is 18 1/2 miles a day.

I averaged 20 miles a day from New York to Maine and didn't feel rushed at all. Took 4 or 5 zeros and several short days on top of that. And I'm old:)

10-K
08-31-2012, 16:42
Should read 500 miles in 30 days with 3 zeros, sorry.

map man
08-31-2012, 21:32
A "typical" hiker on a pace to do the AT in 6 months takes about 40 days to get from Hanover NH to Katahdin. A "typical" hiker on a pace to do the AT in 5 months takes about 40 days to get from Manchester Center VT to Katahdin. So for a NOBO aspiring thru-hiker somewhere in Vermont on August 31 a lot depends on the kind of sustained pace they've been keeping up so far since that's the best predictor of the kind of pace they will keep up from here to the end.

Datto
08-31-2012, 21:42
I was at the Inn at the Long Trail this day in Year 2000 and I finished -- they might want to get a move on though.


Datto

Captain Blue
08-31-2012, 21:56
I try telling them they need to get thier act in gear if they expect to finish, but no, they all think they have pleanty of time left.

I am sure they have been hearing the same message for over 1,000 miles. I think one thing late NOBOs overlook is how fast they are losing daylight this time of the year. Yes, they may have the days but not the daylight. Yellow blazing is always an option.

IrishBASTARD
08-31-2012, 22:43
Personally I don't know if they will make it...but wish them ALL THE LUCK win loose or draw.

Datto
08-31-2012, 23:11
I saw a few thru-hikers completely run out of steam in this area of the Trail and just before this area. Had to do some with diet on the Trail I think as well as people starting/or had run out of money and people from other lands running out of time on their 6 month visa.

Still, I was here at the same time (August 31st) and I, as well as many of the people behind me also finished their thru-hikes.

There's still plenty of time for them to finish if they get a move-on.

Also, reaching the wooden sign at the Maine state line during the time the leaves have already turned sure does put a sense of urgency into a thru-hiker. There was a day during my AT thru-hike when I noticed I was hiking through colorful fallen leaves on the Trail when I realized a sense of urgency was needed.


Datto

max patch
09-01-2012, 10:39
I was at the Inn at the Long Trail this day in Year 2000 and I finished -- they might want to get a move on though.


Datto

Thats misleading. You told us a couple days ago you finished on Oct 21 -- which means for almost everyone else that they WON'T finish based on your experience.

RED-DOG
09-01-2012, 10:52
Yeah they can make it, they will have start before 10 am. and it all depends how bad they want it.

Jack Tarlin
09-01-2012, 13:23
I have to disagree with several posters who gave out some rather gloomy news, especially as regards people still in VT or only just getting to Hanover. Today is 1 September. It takes most thru-hikers 11-12 days to traverse the state of New Hampshire, and 22-27 for Maine. This means that a hiker who doesn't get to Hanover til next week still has plenty of time to get to Katahdin by 15 October. My friends who run the hostel in Glencliff tell me that it takes most folks a bit more than a month to finish from there, i.e. their figures seem to agree with mine. So while a hiker obviously doesn't want to finish right at the tail end because of the risk of poor weather, there's still plenty of time for these folks that we're talking about today, assuming they stay healthy and don't tarry over-long in towns. And keep in mind....after a certain point, there's not much point in flipping, as the weather in Maine in the first half of October is generally much milder than the weather at that time in the White Mountains. The idea of flipping is to get the tough parts out of the way BEFORE you hit really bad weather......flipping so you're guaranteed to experience bad weather kinda defeats the purpose. Assuming a hiker is in Rutland by now, I'd tell them to get serious about their miles and schedule, but to keep heading North.

Marta
09-01-2012, 21:38
Just a comment... I started SOBO in early July. The NOBOs who were finishing then were very Type A--early risers, hike long days, focusing on the finish. As I moved south, the character of the NOBOs I crossed paths with changed--more social, later starts in the morning and later bedtimes at night, building campfires... Yet most of them still finished. The very last NOBOs I met who were planning to reach the end were late-starting, multi-hike veterans, No Pain and Freebird.

Everybody needs to hike their own hike.

Datto
09-01-2012, 22:24
Ha, well misleading it isn't. People finish northbound AT thru-hikes into November -- but of course, that isn't the norm nor, from a planning standpoint, the wisest course of action.

I consider myself fortunate to have been one of the one's who completed my AT thru-hike in the "warm" weather of October 21st. Ha.

To be honest, I don't think there was anything that could have stopped me from completing my AT thru-hike. It was just something I was going to make happen regardless of the challenges I might face. I wasn't alone in that viewpoint -- pretty much everyone around me was convinced they would be completing their AT thru-hikes and nothing would stand in their way.

For me, it wasn't the first time in my life, nor the second time nor even the third, where I had taken on a considerable challenge and had told myself "This will happen and it will be done. This is important and I will make this happen." At the time I had known from previous successes there were things that become more than mildly important and must occur, must be accomplished regardless of the hurdles and difficulties laid down on the course ahead.

It's a commonality rampant in an AT thru-hiker.

I can tell you this -- what may have been most worrisome, from conversations I had with other thru-hikers, was what would come afterward? How each be able to adapt back to life before the Trail after most had gone through the life-bending and awakening experience of an AT thru-hike?

So -- many of those AT thru-hikers mentioned earlier in this thread will finish and be joyful about their experiences and delight in having completed their journey. There is still plenty of time for each of them to finish.

A very few may not want such an experience to come to an end. And so they will stop just before the climb to Katahdin in order to carry the experience ahead and to not call the experience over.

But for most, it will be a turning point and they know that and have been trying to avoid thinking about it for hundreds of miles. Each is convinced they will complete their thru-hike.

It's what comes afterward that is the part of the equation that it seemed to me that AT thru-hikers purposely put aside.


Datto

4shot
09-02-2012, 09:26
some of them won't. In 2010 there were people who quit in various places in Maine and NH.

Its like college. There are plenty of people walking around who lack a course or two from completing their degree.And will probably never finish.

Some people just don't like "closure" for lack of a better term. But as Jerry said, "not that there's anything wrong with that".

10-K
09-02-2012, 09:54
When I got to the birches in Baxter State Park I had it to myself and I spent a good part of the night contemplating whether or not I really wanted to go up Katahdin in the morning.

I remember thinking that I knew without a doubt I could do it so what was the point.

So I guess what I'm saying is that the mental attitude of someone after they've hiked hundreds of miles is probably not the same as somebody sitting at home behind their keyboard.

10-K
09-02-2012, 09:54
I don't mean that in a bad way just that things change when you're hiking.

4shot
09-02-2012, 10:09
I remember thinking that I knew without a doubt I could do it so what was the point.

So I guess what I'm saying is that the mental attitude of someone after they've hiked hundreds of miles is probably not the same as somebody sitting at home behind their keyboard.

That is when the hike does become a real grind (for some, certainly not all). After you have completed 1000? 1250? 1500 miles? then you realize that the only thing that would stop you from finishing is injury or illness. Of course you want to see the Whites because you have heard so much about them and you want to hike in southern Maine because you have heard how difficult it is. But deep down you know that you can handle whatever is in front of you that day. So there are no more mental challenges left, which becomes a new challenge to deal with...i.e. the novelty has worn off.

10-K
09-02-2012, 10:25
You captured exactly what I was saying perfectly.

To me that night Katahdin was just another mountain not much different than all the others and I no longer had anything to prove to myself or anyone else.

I can't imagine buying into that enough to quit though. By morning that illusion was gone and I was on my way up the mountain.

Driver8
09-02-2012, 10:56
You captured exactly what I was saying perfectly.

To me that night Katahdin was just another mountain not much different than all the others and I no longer had anything to prove to myself or anyone else.

I can't imagine buying into that enough to quit though. By morning that illusion was gone and I was on my way up the mountain.

Yeah, it's an interesting place to get to mentally. I'm pretty well past the "proving I can do it" phase of hiking, and it's not so much the novelty to me, though that can come with new terrain and different parts of the world. Now it's just down to doing it b/c I enjoy it. Sometimes, before a hike now, I have a bit of crankiness, a sort of Winnie the Pooh "Oh, bother," but that evaporates ones these legs get churning, lungs bellowing the air in and out, eyes, ears and nose taking in the sights, sounds and scents. Doesn't take long.