View Full Version : [NOBO] Feb17-June10 thru, doable?
Pretty simple question. Really just trying to get done before a summer employment, but really not wanting to die in the Smokies, like I was going to with my earlier Jan 1 start. Accounting for a zero day every seven days (seems pretty reasonable), the average miles per hiking day would be ~23. I think I can do that. But I'm admittedly a rookie at through hiking (though a trail-worker of three years, so I can haul).
Thoughts?
Also I should not I have yak traks, snow-basket treking poles, legit rain pants and boots and legit gaiters available if there is still snow in GSMNP, and know how to use a compass.
I think most will tell you that's not a practical goal but only you know your capabilities. I know for me I would be doing good to be halfway. BTW there is no rule that says you can't stop when you need to go to work and finish another year. Remember the only judge of your success is you. Whatever you decide to do I hope your trip is a success.
Do a google search for flyin Brian Robinson triple crown journal. He started jan 1st but I think you will get a good idea on what you could expect. Keep in mind that every year is different. The year Brian did the triple crown there was a lot of snow up north. Moytoy is dead on, you will be the only to know what you are capable of doing.
Anything is possible and similar hikes have been done. HOWEVER, you will potentially be having "less-than-optimal" conditions for almost all of your hike. Thus, keeping up a 23 mile per day average will be a real challenge. It will all come down to your abilities, your determination, and (more than anything) the weather and trail conditions. There are so many unpredictable seasonal and "weather-related" issues that could slow down your daily pace......
Down South, you will be impacted by short days and the POTENTIAL for snow, "crappy" weather and poor trail conditions in February and March. (Depending upon the winter storms--you could also face fallen trees blocking the trail and slowing your pace). It could also be a very mild winter with little snow and few downed trees.
April and May weather in the mid-Atlantic States is a crap shoot. Some years, it may be excellent hiking weather the whole way through Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey at that time of the year. On the other hand, you could also face a bunch of "rare" Spring snow storms and sleet in those States that could really slow your pace.
In the New England States, you could still face lots of accumulated snow and NEW snow that early. Some--or many--of the huts could be closed (depending upon when you get there). In Maine, you could face some REALLY flooded streams that might be a super challenge to ford and the black flies may eat you to death.
Frankly, a lot of things would all have to line up "just right" in order for you to do this on your proposed timetable. The odds (and the forces of nature) are potentially against you. But you will never know until you try. Go for it---but accept the fact that there is a good possibility that you might not be able to finish on that timetable. Hike as far as you can in the time available. If you get done in the allotted time--great! Otherwise, have a tentative plan for how to finish it up later in the same season or in another season. The trail will still be there. Good luck!
RWheeler
11-19-2012, 11:24
If you're ok with, say, only making it to like NY or so by then, then you can try it. It'd be a difficult try though. It's less than 4 months, and the first month will be potentially through snow and such the entire time. Keep in mind you may need to take zeroes because of weather too, not just for the sake of taking a day to recover from the miles.
Best of luck with it if you decide to go for it, though.
max patch
11-19-2012, 11:40
Is a 3 month, 3 week thru starting the first week in feb doable?
Yes.
By 1 person in a 100.
Maybe you're that 1.
"But I'm admittedly a rookie at through hiking (though a trail-worker of three years, so I can haul)."
Are you a rookie at cold weather/snow too? In any event, snow and to some lessor or greater degree blowdowns will slow you down until you get to Virginia. I suggest that if you want to average 23 mpd then expect to do less than that (high teens) until you get into Virginia, then *more* than 23 mpd from there until you hit the Whites. Expect to dial back mileage a bit in the Whites too, perhaps 20's or even high teens there. Do the math with that and see what the mpd comes out to.
Starting in late Feb on a high snow year, I finished at the end of July, but I took over two weeks off to get over Giardia and separately took a few days off to go back for Trail Days in Damascus. And I was over 50 when I hiked the trail, so better mileage certainly is do-able. But cutting something like 3+ weeks off of that would have either been not do-able for me, or at best would have been a less happy experience.
I would suggest that if you try this that you go in knowing there's an excellent chance that you won't be able to walk the whole trail in your time-frame. Despite other outdoor experience there are some thru-hiking learning curves to work through, and it's harder doing that when you're starting early in tougher conditions. But the real issue is the wild card issues. Stuff happens to make you have to and/or want to get off trail for a few days unexpectedly. It's happened to me on every hike, anyway. I think that for someone new to thru-hiking, it's just practical to expect one or more unanticipated time hits along the way.
The Green Mountain Club, the organization that looks after most of the AT in Vermont, doesn't like people hiking the trail in "mud season," which in a typical year they consider to be early April up to about Memorial Day weekend. Your schedule would put you in Vermont right in that time period. They don't prohibit hiking, mind you, but it's something for you to keep in mind.
In 2001, Brian "Flyin Brian" Robinson successfully thru hiked the AT, the PCT and CDT all in the same calendar year. He left Springer Mountain on January 1st and by March 26th--he quit the AT for a while and switched to the CDT because the AT was getting too hard to make any progress on due to snow. If I am reading his trail journal correctly, it appears that he had gotten as far a Congdon Shelter in Vermont (1601.7 miles). He had been on the trail 85 days. Thus, his per day average was 18.84 miles--zero days included. (By way of comparison, you plan to complete your hike in 114 days. You would have to average 19.16 miles per day--zero days included)
Yes, you are leaving 7 weeks later than "Flyin Brian"--and perhaps it was a harsh winter that year. However, "Flyin' Brian" is also a guy who trained and planed for three years and who completed all three major trails in that same calendar year. Thus, he is something of a "super hiker". If he achieved a slower pace than the pace that you will need to accomplish and if he had to come off of the AT in Vermont and switch to the CDT because the AT had become "too hard"--that might give you some indication of what you are potentially up against in a bad year.
This statement from March 27th in Brian's Trail Journal sums it up pretty well:
"By this time I had made up my mind that this was futile. I was not hiking the AT. It couldn't even be found much of the time. And my mileage total for three days since Cheshire was 32 miles!"
Glo-Worm
11-21-2012, 03:43
You have plenty of time for a successful long distance hike. Enough time for a thru-hike? Maybe. Logistically taking a zero every seven would be a challenge. Like others have stated, early weather would be a challenge. Maine or New York, sounds like an exciting trip. Good luck whatever you choose.
Glo-Worm
AT06 PCT08