Early starters should have an emergency egress plan for the Smokies.

[moldy]

Don't get trapped in the Smokies by deep snow. Have a plan, A, B and C that does no include a rescue or a trip to the hospital or worse. This is one Thru-hikers plan. She had a 3 season tent, 20 degree bag and a warm coat and no special snow walking equipment. Bring extra food just in case. Have a cell phone. Don't go alone. Never leave the AT. Tell someone at home when you start and when to expect a call from you again. Take the trouble of calling the ranger station.

Plan A, Get a good weather report while in Fontana Village. If less than 1 foot of snow is reported by the Park Rangers along the trail inside the park and there 4 clear days ahead....hit the trail and re-look at conditions at Newfound gap in 3 or 4 days. If everything is good for 2 or 3 days...keep hiking and finish the park.

Plan B, If the snow is deeper than one foot and the weather looks good for melting in the next day.....take a zero or 2 zeros or 3 zeros.

Plan C, If the snow is deeper than 3 feet or a big snow producing weather system is coming in the next 3 days....get a shuttle to Standing Bear in Davenport gap and hike North to Hot Springs. When weather conditions improve or the deep snow melts get a shuttle back to Fontana and do the park.

Plan D, The weatherman got it wrong, Day 1 at Mollies Ridge or Russel Field or Spence Field and there is 2 feet of snow....head South back to Fontana. If more than 2 feet of snow...stay put and wait however many days it takes. If you are North of Newfound gap this will apply to Crosby Knob and Tri-Corner Shelters.

3 feet of snow will make drifts 5 or 6 feet deep. Only a fool walks blindly into a trap.

[max patch]

Plan E, Start April 1-15 and hike with the seasons, finishing up in the Fall. Starting in Jan or Feb gives you the possibility of lousy weather at the start, and the high probability of finishing up in the summer, thus missing hiking in NE in the fall.

[Grampie]

Plan E, Start April 1-15 and hike with the seasons, finishing up in the Fall. Starting in Jan or Feb gives you the possibility of lousy weather at the start, and the high probability of finishing up in the summer, thus missing hiking in NE in the fall.

I agree. Don't put yourself in a position where others have to bail you out.

[Malto]

I think there has to be a distinction between a consolidated snowpack and fresh snow. Using your criteria almost nobody could hike the PCT since you are often walking on several feet of snow. But this isn't a problem since it has hardened into the famous Sierra Cement. I think the same would be true in GSMNP. There would be like problem hiking on a couple of feet of consolidated snow. I know that major snow depths can be a problem in areas where the green tunnel loses its height.

Overall, agree on the need to read conditions, prepare for them and have contingency plans. I'm not sure your definitions of when to bail or precede are accurate.

[Malto]

Little not like problem. Can't type.

[BrianLe]

Ditto gg-man, said just what I was thinking. I went through the Smokies in March of 2010; at some point there's enough snow that if it's consolidated enough, or others have broken it down enough and it's re-consolidated, depth doesn't matter. Well, unless you have a warm afternoon and are post-holing, which can happen.

I went through there with a "3 season tent, 20 degree bag and a warm coat and no special snow walking equipment" and didn't reckon that I was doing anything outrageously foolish. My bailout plan was to walk out --- what else? Staying in shelters every night helped, particularly the plastic sheeting that covered the open sides at that time and place(s). And the ridge runner I met in there (who I had first met hiking the PCT a couple of years before) didn't seem to think that any of my ad hoc group was being stupid.

We did all end up road walking from Clingman's Dome to Newfound Gap, and even then we were postholing somewhat on the road. I certainly do agree that you have to adapt to conditions and be responsible (!). I think we might disagree on just where the boundaries of that are, however (which IMO is going to vary somewhat by the individual).
Certainly issues like a warmup that makes for deep postholing requires adjustment where possible, as does any clue that new snow is coming in significant quantity. And I certainly agree that you need to carry a fair bit of food into the Smokies --- because you can't know whether the road will even be open to get to Gatlinburg if you're on the early side. But I think it's difficult to come up with any universally applicable rules of when it's time to hunker down, or turn back (or to the side), vs. okay to continue on.

[Drybones]

Plan E, Start April 1-15 and hike with the seasons, finishing up in the Fall. Starting in Jan or Feb gives you the possibility of lousy weather at the start, and the high probability of finishing up in the summer, thus missing hiking in NE in the fall.

The best way to win a fight is to not get into one.

[Don H]

What do you consider an early start?
I left Fontana on 3/29 and walked into Standing Bear on 4/3/11. Hit some snow and ice (which was worse than the snow).

[yellowsirocco]

The best thing is to carry maps. There are over 900 miles of trails in the park and you don't necessarily have to only go forwards and back on the AT. If you need to blue blaze then maps give you that option. If you get up on the ridge and things turn bad it a maps can point you to an easier exit.

[Lone Wolf]

Don't get trapped in the Smokies by deep snow. Have a plan, A, B and C that does no include a rescue or a trip to the hospital or worse. This is one Thru-hikers plan. She had a 3 season tent, 20 degree bag and a warm coat and no special snow walking equipment. Bring extra food just in case. Have a cell phone. Don't go alone. Never leave the AT. Tell someone at home when you start and when to expect a call from you again. Take the trouble of calling the ranger station.

Plan A, Get a good weather report while in Fontana Village. If less than 1 foot of snow is reported by the Park Rangers along the trail inside the park and there 4 clear days ahead....hit the trail and re-look at conditions at Newfound gap in 3 or 4 days. If everything is good for 2 or 3 days...keep hiking and finish the park.

Plan B, If the snow is deeper than one foot and the weather looks good for melting in the next day.....take a zero or 2 zeros or 3 zeros.

Plan C, If the snow is deeper than 3 feet or a big snow producing weather system is coming in the next 3 days....get a shuttle to Standing Bear in Davenport gap and hike North to Hot Springs. When weather conditions improve or the deep snow melts get a shuttle back to Fontana and do the park.

Plan D, The weatherman got it wrong, Day 1 at Mollies Ridge or Russel Field or Spence Field and there is 2 feet of snow....head South back to Fontana. If more than 2 feet of snow...stay put and wait however many days it takes. If you are North of Newfound gap this will apply to Crosby Knob and Tri-Corner Shelters.

3 feet of snow will make drifts 5 or 6 feet deep. Only a fool walks blindly into a trap.
plan D wrong. side trail to cades cove. it ain't just about "early" startersplenty of snow march - may in the smokys

[TheBigHiker]

Is a March 15th start date an "early start"?

[Lone Wolf]

no. not at all

[TheBigHiker]

I didn't think so... thanks wolf.

[joshuasdad]

I think there has to be a distinction between a consolidated snowpack and fresh snow. Using your criteria almost nobody could hike the PCT since you are often walking on several feet of snow. But this isn't a problem since it has hardened into the famous Sierra Cement. I think the same would be true in GSMNP. There would be like problem hiking on a couple of feet of consolidated snow. I know that major snow depths can be a problem in areas where the green tunnel loses its height.

Overall, agree on the need to read conditions, prepare for them and have contingency plans. I'm not sure your definitions of when to bail or precede are accurate.

Climbing up to Tricorner on Thanksgiving, a 4 foot drift had hardened pretty much into cement. The next day (S from Tricorner), the section where Solo was recently rescued from was very firm and icy, with likely 2-3 feet snow. Snow deposition varied according to the mountain location. Southern slopes were dry, while northern slopes were snow covered.

As to Plan D, best bailout in Northern Smokies is to Cosby Campground, only 2.5 miles from Low Gap, or a bit longer from Tricorner area. The lower you get, the less snow you will have, that is, unless there is a north slope/south slope difference, which is what happened to Solo. He descended off of Tricorner into a north facing slope and became trapped.

[TNjed]

JP is on Leconte at the lodge. I'm sure he would help out in a pinch IF you were to happen to get jammed up in that area.

[SassyWindsor]

The GSMNP toll free number gives a week in advance weather forecast, (how accurate is questionable). Making it to Hwy 441(Newfound Gap) doesn't assure an open road, so you must be prepared to take the risk. The walk out from Newfound Gap by road would be a tough option, probably just as good to turn around and backtrack. Plan wisely.

[yellowsirocco]

JP is on Leconte at the lodge. I'm sure he would help out in a pinch IF you were to happen to get jammed up in that area.

But that is really only a ***** hitting the fan kind of option. He can't handle every idiot NOBO who didn't check the weather report.

And is he even on 7 days a week? If the weather is that bad it would suck to do several miles through it just to get to an empty lodge on his days off.

[Jcmyers78]

How early is early?

[SassyWindsor]

NOBO's arriving at Fontana anytime between Christmas and the latter part of March could hit bad winter weather in the GSMNP.