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Thomas Mackay
01-24-2013, 23:58
I have not hiked the entire AT. I have hiked much of the middle of it however, the area that is considered "easiest".

Knowing full well that the miles at the northern and southern ends of the AT are harder, take longer and are perhaps more torturous, I need to develop the ability to gauge what an "average day's hike" will be in these places.

I plan on flip-flopping or whatever it's called, come summer. I have 5 months, that's 21 weeks, that's 100 miles a week, that's 16-17mi a day considering 0 days. Therefore, say, 17mi/day will eventually be my average for the whole trail.

Except 17 miles in NH is different then 17 of my Maryland miles, so that won't work... Everyone has different hiking abilities, but to understand the relative difficulties, the magnitude of ones "average day" matters less than the range within ones own trip. So here are some questions for those who have been there, done that-

What was an "average day" for you in.... (Tried to group places with similar geographic features....)

1) Georgia?
2) Smokies?
3) TN/NC?
4) South-Central VA?
5) Shenandoah?
6) PA/MD?
7) NY/NJ?
8) CT/MA?
9) Greens?
10) Whites?
11) Maine?
NoBo or SoBo or Other?
Overall average?

This is actually an interesting question even just from the "gee I wonder what the relationship really is" point of view. If you have thru hiked, please leave a quick response. I can tally them up and make a graph or something.

[NERD ALERT]


For your convenience, places in N-S order.
Maine?
Whites?
Greens?
CT/MA?
NY/NJ?
PA/MD?
Shenandoah?
South-Central VA?
TN/NC?
Smokies?
Georgia?


-Mackay.

Thomas Mackay
01-25-2013, 00:37
I FOUND THIS:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?12885-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section-%28AT-Data-and-Schedules%29

I think my questions are now answered. WB FTW.

map man
01-25-2013, 01:22
I'm glad you have found the article I wrote to be useful. It would be helpful to know the details of your "flip-flop." For instance, southbound thru-hikers cover a lot more ground per day in the last sections of their hike, from Damascus to Springer, than northbounders do in that stretch (while still getting their "trail legs") as shown in the second table in that article.

4shot
01-25-2013, 09:16
Your goal of 21 weeks is very doable. That's an average of just about 15 miles a day with 0 days included. 2200/147. Best advice imo is: don't push yourself too hard at the start trying to achieve your goal. The 20 - 25 mile days will come easily enough once you get your trail legs although you will be in the minority if you can do 20 miles/day in the upper NH/lower Maine portion of the trail.

I have no way of knowing this but most (75% - 80%) thru-hikers could do a 21 week thru if motivated to do so.

moldy
01-25-2013, 10:32
Thomas, You are over thinking this. You are 22 years old. When your hike is over your average mpd for the entire trail will be over 18. The only place on the trail that your mpd will drop off is the 150 mile section between Kinsman notch NH and Rangely Maine. On the rest of the over 2,000 miles of trail other factors out weigh the terrain in determining your mpd average. The 3 main other factors are, hours of daylight, your learning curve, and your motivation.

Thomas Mackay
01-25-2013, 11:04
Yes Map Man your article pretty much answers my question exactly, better even. My flip flop is NJ>ME NJ>GA

4shot, This is good advice. I am building a schedule, but it will have flexibility. I just need to have an idea where I am on any day so others from home can join in on section hikes if they like (like my dad.)

Moldy, The other 3 factors I will keep in mind. Hours of daylight shouldn't be limiting since it'll be from june-sept, my learning curve only slight in the beginning, I'll think about motivation later ;)

4shot
01-25-2013, 11:50
Thomas - do you backpack now? What is your average mpd (miles per day)? You are starting at a relatively "easy" part of the trail so your current pace should translate well. Many of us (well, maybe just me) trained but found that our 15 - 18 mile days at local trails turned into 10 - 12 mpd in the southern AT. I really don't know how well my local average would have translated to mpd if I had started in NJ but I suspect it would have been a lot closer pf not the same. Are your local trails similar to the NJ/NY parts of the trail? Again, keep your pace comfortable and don't get to caught up in trying to push too hard.

also, have you arranged your transportation back to NJ? If you don't have a good plan you can lose a couple of days in travel time.

Thomas Mackay
01-25-2013, 11:58
I have one question for Map Man though. In order to more perfectly model my planned hike, here is what I am going to do. Below is the chart from your study.

1) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)
2) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
7) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
12)12.9 miles........(14.7 miles).........The entire AT (2175.0 miles)

Because I will be starting in NJ, say DWG, I will swap the MPD from line 1, with line 7. Also line 2 with line 8. Primitive, yes, but a closer model right?

7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

And since these numbers are adjusted for a 168.8 day hike, I can weight them to my planned 5 month hike. Very crude, but I think it should be within my margin or error for my schedule.

Lyle
01-25-2013, 12:01
Another article to look at would be B. Jack's re-supply article. He also gives some pretty useful estimates of hiking times for individual sections of the trail.

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?15-resupply

Thomas Mackay
01-25-2013, 12:03
4Shot.

Yes I backpack now. I tend to manage about 17 mpd. In NJ, I've probably done about 15mpd although that was NJ and not the more rugged NY and CT. Out here in Western Maryland the mileages also tend to drop as well, even for shorter trips.

My dad is going to drive up to Katahdin and we're going to hike it together.Hopefully only lose 2 days, maybe 3. From Springer I'm taking the train home.

Thomas Mackay
01-25-2013, 14:28
Map Man

I ran the model I described above and found that for the northern third of the trail I consistently under estimated the time I would need by about 15%. I consistently overestimated the time I would need for the middle third by about 15%, and more or less estimated the southern third correctly. However, 15% compounded over the course of 50 days means my mail drop schedule would have been behind/ahead of myself by as much as a week.

So thank you for saving me that frustration.

BuckeyeBill
01-25-2013, 22:42
According to the latests guides, the trail is 2185.9 miles, so you need to adjust for this increase.

Blissful
01-25-2013, 22:59
I have one question for Map Man though. In order to more perfectly model my planned hike, here is what I am going to do. Below is the chart from your study.

1) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)
2) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
7) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
12)12.9 miles........(14.7 miles).........The entire AT (2175.0 miles)

Because I will be starting in NJ, say DWG, I will swap the MPD from line 1, with line 7. Also line 2 with line 8. Primitive, yes, but a closer model right?

7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

And since these numbers are adjusted for a 168.8 day hike, I can weight them to my planned 5 month hike. Very crude, but I think it should be within my margin or error for my schedule.



Nice to say it, but different to hike it.

Throw it all out the window. You won't know what you can do until you are out there. Hike it as you go.

Malto
01-26-2013, 09:15
I agree with moldy that you are probably over thinking this. (this coming from someone that way over thinks hiking schedules). Don't stress over the resupply schedule. Come up with one and adjust on the fly. I had a very constrained schedule AND a lot of mail drops. I had a schedule but I adjusted by telling my wife to adjust the ship day by whatever number of days that I was ahead or behind. Also since you will want to send the package to arrive a few days or even a full week ahead, it gives you a huge window to hit.

As far as total schedule, a properly motivated hiker and prepared hiker will no problem finishing in five months.

map man
01-26-2013, 10:46
7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

Thomas, since no hiker is exactly "average" you may hike more or less per day than the values in this modified table you made, but I do think it's a good approximation of the "relative" differences between sections for your flip-flop hike. My only small quibble with the proportions is I think that since your first two sections, the NJ-NY section and Kent-Glencliff section, have less severe ups and downs than the first couple southern sections for a beginning NOBO, that rather than taking 10 miles per hiking day in the first section, and 12 in the second, you could bump those values up a couple miles per hiking day for your hike in those first two sections, and then pro-rate the values for a five month hike from there.

I, like you, think this is a lot of fun as an intellectual exercise -- but clearly not for everybody;).

4shot
01-26-2013, 13:14
Map Man

However, 15% compounded over the course of 50 days means my mail drop schedule would have been behind/ahead of myself by as much as a week.

So thank you for saving me that frustration.

Just one opinion here...if I was hiking to a schedule or deadline (as you are), I wouldn't want to do too much in the way of maildrops. They are nice on occasion as you can get some items that are hard to find on the trail but they add a bit of logistics that can complicate things. No matter how much planning you do, you will always have a situation where you get to town 15 minutes after the post office closes. Or you have to sort out what you need/want with what is already in your pack and deal with bouncing it ahead.

I did get a few mail drops along the way but mostly it was in the later 1/2 when I wanted to add some variety to my diet. They were a bit of a hassle but I wasn't on a schedule. OTOH, you get to where you can walk into a convenience store or grocery store and buy 4 days worth of food in about 10 minutes.

brian039
01-26-2013, 14:27
I went through and broke down my averages not taking into account zero days through the sections you mentioned. I'll also give you a rating on a 0-10 scale with 10 being what I thought was hardest. I hiked north so I'll list it in that order:

1) Georgia - 9.6 mpd. I was out of shape and the days were short. 5/10

2) Smokies - 12.5 mpd. 6/10

3) NC/TN - 12.5 mpd. 5/10

4) South/Central VA - 14.4 mpd. I'd give south VA a 3/10 and Central VA a 6/10

5) Shennandoah - 16.9 mpd. 4/10

6) PA/MD - 16.5 mpd. 2/10

7) NY/NJ - 15.3 mpd. NJ gets a 4/10 and NY gets a 7/10.

8) CT/Mass - 16.1 mpd. 5/10

9) Greens - 15.2 mpd. Started hiking with a group here and it slowed me down. 5/10

10) Whites - 11.1 mpd. 9/10

11) Maine - 13.5 mpd. Southern Maine gets 10/10, Central Maine 5/10, Northern Maine 8/10

Datto
01-26-2013, 20:16
Something to keep in mind with your flip-flop -- if you run behind when you come back to NJ to head south after your flip back to New Jersey -- Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia (particularly southbounding down to about Waynesboro) are where you can make up a great deal of time if you have to do so. You'll be in great trail shape by then and you'll still be experiencing lots of daytime light hours in those states so the hiking length of time per day is better.

All of that "make-up" time/territory is true true for northbounder AT thru-hikers starting at Springer also. Once a northbounder gets to New York, available make up time may start disappearing.


Datto

prain4u
01-27-2013, 01:09
1) In my opinion, you are over-thinking and over planning this. In most instances, detailed hiking plans quickly become obsolete and pretty worthless the moment you start hiking and the realities of the trail set in. REMEMBER: It is just walking. Nothing more. Nothing less. Each day you will hike as far as you hike. If you are in reasonably good condition, hike a reasonable pace and have "long" hiking days--you should complete your hike within the time frame that you have available. Some days you will hike far. Some days you will hike not-so-far. It will all average out in the end.

2) If you read these forums long enough, you will see a large number of people who did mail drops on a thru hike who now say that they would not do mail drops on another thru hike. Many people find that it is a hassle to coordinate your hiking pace with your planned mail drops---and to work around the increasingly limited hours of small-town post offices. Buy your food and supplies in trail towns as you go.

3) I would concur with the idea that you should take it easy the first 2-4 weeks of your hike. Many hikers have tried to hike too far too soon and injured themselves in the process. This ends their hike--or causes them to take time out to recuperate.

prain4u
01-27-2013, 01:44
Hours of daylight shouldn't be limiting since it'll be from june-sept

Just a note: Near the end of June--the days start getting shorter again. Thus, August and September's daylight hours are pretty similar to those found in April and March. In Knoxville, Tennessee--on September 15th you will have 2 hours and 14 minutes LESS daylight than you had on June 22nd in Knoxville.

Thomas Mackay
01-28-2013, 10:54
Thank you for all your input and opinions. Everything here has really helped out.

I for sure originally wanted to just disappear onto the AT and figure out my schedule as I went but since that time I happened myself upon a dog and I adopted him, or, he adopted me.

And so, to bring him along, I already suffer from an increased amount of complication and logistics and therefore at this point don't see a schedule as that much of hindrance, especially if I don't use it incorrectly- (ie overly preoccupied with it) I only want to have a list of checkpoints and dates to see how I'm doing as I pass. Timely mail drops can save me lots of hassle trying to find more difficult items (like dog food) on a regular basis. Obviously, I'm not going to mail drop myself easily obtainable things like bread. Both methods have advantages that I want to exploit.

Also a schedule could be advantageous if friends want to join me on parts of my hike. They'll know where I (more likely) am, and can plan their busy lives around it.

prain4u
01-28-2013, 12:26
Thank you for all your input and opinions. Everything here has really helped out.

I for sure originally wanted to just disappear onto the AT and figure out my schedule as I went but since that time I happened myself upon a dog and I adopted him, or, he adopted me.

And so, to bring him along, I already suffer from an increased amount of complication and logistics and therefore at this point don't see a schedule as that much of hindrance, especially if I don't use it incorrectly- (ie overly preoccupied with it) I only want to have a list of checkpoints and dates to see how I'm doing as I pass. Timely mail drops can save me lots of hassle trying to find more difficult items (like dog food) on a regular basis. Obviously, I'm not going to mail drop myself easily obtainable things like bread. Both methods have advantages that I want to exploit.

Also a schedule could be advantageous if friends want to join me on parts of my hike. They'll know where I (more likely) am, and can plan their busy lives around it.


Best of luck to you--I hope you make it! You are definitely defying the conventional wisdom in so many ways. PERSONALLY, I think that you are (needlessly?) making some decisions which will significantly elevate the level of difficulty for your hike and greatly increase your chances of not completing. But, it is a matter of Hike Your Own Hike--and everyone has to do what they think is best for them---so I wish you well!

I am not saying that your hike can't be done successfully or that you won't have a good time. I'm just saying that you are making your hike a whole lot more difficult--and a whole lot more expensive that it needs to be.

Mailing yourself the dog food will probably cost you a whole lot more than the dog food itself.

Dogs can be a challenge on a thru hike. (They are not even allowed on some parts of the trail--so you have to figure out what to do with the dog for those sections. It is also more difficult to get a hitch into town with a dog).

A Flip Flop adds to your travel expenses. (And, unless you are traveling in a private vehicle--the dog adds to the complexity and cost of the flip-flop trip from Maine back to New Jersey).

Many people report that meeting up with family and friends CAN be logistically challenging and often slows down one's hike. (You either spend zero days meeting with family and friends--or if they hike with you--you will probably need to hike much slower than usual because your family/friends will not have "trail legs").

Mail drops add a degree of complexity and increased difficulty--especially as the postal service cuts hours at small post offices (or closes them altogether).

Bottom line: I hope you are not biting off more than you can chew. All that is left to say is good luck and best wishes! HYOH

Canyonero
01-28-2013, 12:47
Watch out for recumbents...they will take you out :sun

Good luck with your hike Tom!

Mountainsmike
01-29-2013, 03:06
If you are going to do mail drops look at the cooking links here on WB. You can make up a whole lot of mashed potato meals on your own for cost of one store bought package. Same goes for noodles & many other things 1st time hiker do for mail drops. If you are doing mail drops then make them worth while. Add some veggies & tvp, etc. PM if you want recipes I have a good selection ready to send & adding to it. Check out Sarbar's site. Research now will save you in the long run.

Other option is hybred approach. Buy bulk in bigger towns & send them where you need them. This works best for a lot of hikers. Plan your schedule (always loved doing it & dreaming about the trails I hike) THEN PRINT IT ON THE SOFTEST PAPER YOU CAN FIND. Once you hit the trail it all goes out the window & you can use it as TP. But it will stand as a general guide for your friends. -1 day off for this town or + one here...etc. Other than injury you can figure a rough pace if you have read some trail journals from people with relative experience.