Any theories regarding these trends?

[dje97001]

So, the ATC's website has stats on the recent numbers of thru-hikers starting and completing over the last few years. Note: As of May 10th, the ATC from Springer reports 1,193 NOBOs.

I'd love to hear theories and/or comments on the apparent trends. I have my own theories but I'd rather not bias the discussion.
NORTHBOUND 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Springer Mountain, Ga.
(southern end of A.T.) 2,900 2,375 1,875 1,750 1,535
Neels Gap, Ga.
(30 miles) 2,300 1,904 1,500 1,400 1,305
Fontana Dam, N.C.
(160 miles) 1,200 1,100 999 1,028 864
Harpers Ferry, W.Va.
(1,000 miles) 764 718 687 741 661
Katahdin, Maine
(northern end) 431 397 384 402 369
Completion rate 15% 17% 20% 23% 24%

[MOWGLI]

Lighter gear and more info increases the completion rate.

The millenium increased attempts - although it had nothing to do with my hike in 2000. The window of opportunity opened - and I took it.

[Tha Wookie]

I would theorize that except for the millineum year, which was spuriously impacted by the year, that any variation is due to a random assortment of factors, attributable only to chance.

[TJ aka Teej]

Katahdin, Maine
(northern end) 431 397 384 402 369
The numbers collected by the Ferryman at the Kennebec and by Rangers at Katahdin are always higher than the number of hikers that report to the ATC. If there is any actually trend, I'd venture a guess that fewer hikers seem to care about having the ATC validate their status as 2000 milers making the % of completion even higher than the provided stats seem to indicate.
The Ferryman's site, www.riversandtrails.com (http://www.riversandtrails.com) has his numbers from 2004:
http://www.riversandtrails.com/2004kennebecferry.html (http://www.riversandtrails.com/2004kennebecferry.html) where he reports 488 Georgia to Maine hikers, where the ATC has only 369.

[Moon Monster]

Regarding the starting count, there was another very recent thread like this (though it didn't get much response):
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=8928&highlight=millennial

Regarding completion rate, I agree that the number of folks who move in some fashion from Georgia to Maine is likely a lot higher than the reports to ATC, maybe a lot higher than those who call themselves GA-ME to the Ferryman. Perhaps many of the yellow blazers (and there are many) do not claim completion. Anecdotally, on my NOBO in 2003, I only witnessed or heard about fewer than 20 prospective NOBOs quitting. This is compared to well over 100 hikers that I confirmed in one way or another getting to Katahdin. I probably met about 200. So, at least 50% of those I knew made it by some means (quite often by skipping some sections).

[Alligator]

I think there's support for the millineum theory, with a bit of trickle over into 2001. Sort of an echo, maybe folks that couldn't quite get it together for 2000. What would be helpful is data for before 2000, to see if it was a spike. Otherwise, the numbers for 2002-2004 are very similar, with a lot parallelism to these three profiles. I would be very doubtful to find significant differences in the completion numbers (between years), but would certainly expect to see significant differences in the intial values. My unprofessional opinion is that there was an assload of people starting in 2000 and 2001 which, for some reason, were not really suited to make the trip. Then a core of folks with the potential to make it, similar to the more recent years.

I graphed these out and put into Word.

[Rain Man]

The numbers collected by the Ferryman at the Kennebec and by Rangers at Katahdin are always higher than the number of hikers that report to the ATC. If there is any actually trend, I'd venture a guess that fewer hikers seem to care about having the ATC validate their status as 2000 milers making the % of completion even higher than the provided stats seem to indicate.

I do wonder about the "garbage in, garbage out" issue with hike statistics. We can have no more assurance about trends than we have about the quality of the raw data, I suppose?

Still, I assume there is a trend of some proportion, as the data we have is so greatly changed from year to year? Even taking "polling error" into account.

Rain Man

.

[Colter]

To me, it looks like a trend that is likely to be attributable to a factor or factors other than random chance.

My guess is that the numbers reached a peak due to interest sparked by “A Walk in the Woods.” I’d also guess that there were a lot more relatively inexperienced people attempting the hike soon after the book became popular. A disproportionate number of these people may have liked the IDEA of hiking the AT better than they actually liked hiking.

Now, perhaps, the average experience level is higher.

I know, for example, in 2001 when I made the hike light gear was readily available and used, and information was readily available. I think what has changed is “the Bryson Effect.”
.

[Footslogger]

I haven't looked at this personally, and I don't have a good sense of what the weather conditions were over the past 4 - 5 years ...but I wonder if there is any correlation (direct or indirect) in terms of weather ??? I know that we lost a lot of hikers early in 2003 because of the seemingly endless rain and in 2001, when my wife hiked, they had severe heat and a shortage of water.

Dunno ....just a thought. But yeah, the trend is toward lighter weight gear/pack weights and that may have some impact on the number of hikers who otherwise may have gotten injured or just plain too exhausted to make it all the way. I know in my own case that dropping packweight from 43lbs at Springer to 24 - 25lbs by Pearisburg thru Katahdin made a huge difference in my ability to keep on keepin on.

'Slogger
AT 2003

[rickb]

I am thinking that the ATC figures for Katahdin might include not only thru hikers, but also section hikers completing the last of thier 2000 Miles.

If I am right about that, the completion rate might be skewed upwards. In theory, we could see completion rates exceed 100%.

Edit: Just checked the ATC page-- looks like figures are for thru hikers only. So much for my theory.

[dje97001]

The following numbers mean, Ex.: In 2004, while the overall completion rate was 24%, if you finished the first 30 miles you had a 28% chance of finishing. If you finished the first 160 miles, you had a 43% chance of finishing. If you walked all the way to harpers ferry you would then have a 56% chance of finishing. That means half of the people who make it half way don't finish.

What is really interesting, looking at these numbers, we would gather that in 2000, 2001 the only major differences compared to other years can be seen in the percentage that finished the hike from the group at the 30 mile mark. Clearly many people were up for a hike, but a disproportionate number of them (compared to other years) stopped between 30-159 miles.

2004
28% - 30 miles
43% - 160 miles
56% - Harpers Ferry

2003
29% - 30 miles
39% - 160 miles
54% - Harpers Ferry

2002
26% - 30 miles
38% - 160 miles
56% - Harpers Ferry

2001
21% - 30 miles
36% - 160 miles
55% - Harpers Ferry

2000
19% - 30 miles
36% - 160 miles
56% - Harpers Ferry

[MOWGLI]

Y'all can look at these numbers til the cows come home. IMO, unless your a statistician, it's not gonna tell you all that much. The trail is hiked by individuals, some of whom stick with the trail, most of whom drop out after deciding to hike 2100+ miles. You'd need to interview these individuals in order to ascertain their motivation for hiking.

If Colter's theory is correct, the AT is gonna get slammed if they make Bryson's book into a movie. Personally, I think the drop in AT thru-hiker numbers is a good thing. Good for the trail anyway. I hope they don't make that movie.

[Alligator]

Moooooo...

Anyway, consider the figure I posted. What you are looking for are parallel lines. Parallelism (not perfect either) would indicate that the rates are similar, but that the initial values are not. Roughly, the last three years are "parallel". All five years are roughly parallel between Fontana and Katahdin and between Springer and Neels Gap. However, the profiles are different for the grouping of 2000 & 2001 from Neels Gap to Fontana than they are for the grouping of 2002-2004. The case was made by dje97001 that it is only majorly different between Neels gap and Fontana. To me, that's pretty reasonable.

The amount and type of information to suggest why was not collected. Keep an eye out for cow pies.

[Tim Rich]

I think Bryson caused a bulge in total attempts.

I also think thruhike attempts are reported as successful at a higher rate for two reasons: the internet allows for an obnoxious amount of information to help prepare; and the opinion of what constitutes a 2,000 miler has become more lax in recent years.

Mooving along here, nothing to see...

[Alligator]

This is some squishy data though...
Northbound - Georgia to Maine

Springer Mountain, Ga. Calculated from the Neels Gap, Ga. count, using an estimated 15 percent drop-out rate* (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/hike/thru_hike/source.html#sub1) in the first 30 miles.

Neels Gap, Ga. Staff members from Mountain Crossings at the Walasi-Yi Center.

Fontana Dam, N.C. Fontana Dam caretaker.

Harpers Ferry, W.Va. Photographs at ATC headquarters.

Katahdin, Maine. Hiker reports received at ATC.

*prior to 2004, a 20% drop out rate was used.

[dje97001]

Now that is interesting Alligator... good call to look at measures used.

[Jack Tarlin]

Don't read too much into all this, the figures are wildly inaccurate.....

1. Nobody knows how many people start....not everyone checks in at Amicalola Falls, in fact 50% of the hikers never even SEE Amicalola Falls Park, choosing instead to start at USFS Road 42 near Springer. So there effectively is no official "sign-in" place, at least none that everyone uses. "Starting estimates" are pure speculation.

2. Starting figures are essentially based on the hiker register at Neels' Gap which is wildly innacurate, as many people never see or sign their book. (Plus dozens of folks have quite before they get there). How do I know their figures are inaccurate? It's pretty easy to see: This April, the day I was there, there were eight or nine hikers over-nighting (and many others that had passed thru that day without staying) but only four folks had "signed in" that day. This leads one to think that any figures gleaned from this book are nothing but guesswork. Lots of folks who get to Neels never see or sign their book.

3. "Completion" figures are a bigger joke than starting figures, as not everyone "signs in" at the Baxter State park Ranger station; likewise, some folks never report into the ATC at all to report a completed thru as they don't care about recognition or the patch, and most important of all, most of the folks who report in are completely full of s*** as regards the ""completed" status of their hike......there is NO WAY that 17-20% of all starters hike the entire trail, i.e., walk the whole way without skipping anything.

Actual "completion figures", i.e., the number of folks who report in to Harper's Ferry to report a completed thru-hike who have actually done so are, in fact, something like 1.5 to 3 per cent of those who start. The 17-20% completion figure is a joke; the 24% figure from 2004 is absurd. All this says is that with every passing year there are more and more hikers who wish to be publicly acknowledged and recognized for hiking the entire A.T. without the onerous and unpleasant task of actually having done so, and the number of spurious thru-hikes is going up every year. Yeah, people are better informed, better prepared, and are carrying smaller packs. But a 24% completion rate? Nonsense.

In short, these figures are interesting to see and speculate over, but there's very little substance here. Nobody really knows how many folks start every year, or how many finish. The only certainty is that there are more folks out there than official records indicate, and LOTS more completers, and lots more fake completers. How many folks who set out to do the entire Trail every year actually do so? In my estimation, maybe fifty, and perhaps less.

[Skyline]

I agree with just about everything Jack wrote above, and want to add:

Each year, in late June/early July, I and others listed as shuttle resources in the VA-WV-MD area can count on getting a slew of calls from alleged thru-hikers wanting shuttles from somewhere in SNP up to Harpers Ferry. The most common reasons are to catch up with friends and/or take the train into DC for the 4th of July fireworks/show. Very, very few of these folks ever come back to do the miles they missed (shuttlers in the region haven't driven them back, they aren't signed in at SNP shelter registers later on, and their own or others' online journals tell the story as well), but yet their names show up in the ATN the following May as having hiked the entire AT.

Likewise, we each get calls from NOBOs wanting shuttles to facilitate the "aqua blaze"--the taking of a canoe or group of canoes from somewhere in the SNP region to the VA/WV border or beyond to Harpers Ferry. These "hikers" routinely appear in the following year's ATN as if they hiked the Trail instead of taking the Shenandoah River. Some will actually argue that the River is a legit option that "counts" towards ATC's expectation that one will HIKE on the AT from Springer to Katahdin before applying for recognition. Rubbish!

Most people associated in any way with the AT, myself included, don't really care that hikers do any of this--UNTIL they go and sign that piece of paper and send it to ATC claiming they hiked the whole Trail. And so if the ATC percentages of completion are up, examples like these are significant reasons. It means you take that list printed in ATN with a large grain of salt, which is really a shame for those of us who actually did do all the white blazes.

[TJ aka Teej]

This is some squishy data though...

Katahdin, Maine. Hiker reports received at ATC.
And yet Baxter reports in detail to the ATC the data they collect about AT hikers. It's a wonder they don't use the data they have Baxter to collect.

[TJ aka Teej]

1. Nobody knows how many people start....not everyone checks in at Amicalola Falls, in fact 50% of the hikers never even SEE Amicalola Falls Park, choosing instead to start at USFS Road 42 near Springer. So there effectively is no official "sign-in" place, at least none that everyone uses. "Starting estimates" are pure speculation.
I'd speculate that the numbers recorded at Neels Gap are pretty close to the truth about how many have started a northbound thru. Where exactly does the ATC's "15%" drop out happen, though?

[Youngblood]

I'd speculate that the numbers recorded at Neels Gap are pretty close to the truth about how many have started a northbound thru. Where exactly does the ATC's "15%" drop out happen, though?
TJ, I don't thing that it exactly happens at one point, it would likely be spread out between Amacalola SP and Neels Gap. Some of them might turn around and hike back to the SP before they even make it to Springer or catch rides out at Woody Gap (20 miles from Springer on GA Hwy 60). Between Springer an Gooch Gap (16 miles from Springer), FSR42 crosses the AT about a half dozen times and basically parallel's it for several miles. There are plenty of places to bail in there if you were determined to and where patient or lucky enough to catch a ride. It would be pretty hard to bail out in the 10 miles or so between Woody Gap and Neels Gap.

What catches a lot of them off guard (other that blister problems) that start at Springer is that the first 5 miles or so doesn't have any real climbs and things are relatively tame until after Hawk Mtn Shelter (8.5 miles from Springer). Then they hit three serious climbs in the next six miles; sometimes they find out at that point that it is more than they can handle. Those starting out at Amicalola SP, on the other hand, have a couple of good climbs to even get to Springer... if it is more than you can handle it's best to find out there where it is easier to turn around and hike back to civilization.

Youngblood

[Bolivershagnasty]

Just from having an exstinsive investigative background more than a Backpacking background. My first thoughts to all of this is that yea lighter packs make a difference from "the start" due to ultra light equiptment easley obtained by even the novice, even me. We've all laughed at the endless stories about people who start at Springer with 90 lb packs! Going over Ga's straight up and down blazes. Who could have a pack like that these days! I can't carry a 36lb pack 6 miles without killing myself but the same trail 1 month later with a 28-30 lb pack, it was like I didn't have one on. Now I'm a stickler about weight. That little of a difference made "that much" of a difference. And those starting these days would just simply "get" lighter equiptment from just being "recomended" by "the dealer", without knowing it. (my weight was food that I didn't need) the cost really isn't that much anymore plus I bet you can't "shop" for "heavy gear" these days anyway. If you don't have "light" gear you just took off with uncle earl's Army pack and can spagetti sauce, and raw beans.. LOL,,kinda..If you shop at all you can get good light gear right off the shelf not knowing much.
I would guess that most starting would make a point of "getting" their name on something in the beggining to document and get at least "an acknolegment" that "they" were "doin" the AT. So Neels Gap is a better reading of "who's on trail". Of course you've lose some but not anyone worth noting. If it's that big of deal why doe'snt the ATC, or those who care, issue "permits" for lack of a better word, to be stamped by "reputibal" biz's along the trail at reconized dealers and hostils. Like hunting check stations or "pass ports". You could set up a discount plan for those on trail in sequence, that could be quite good." That would facilitate many great discounts for them even promote "sponsers" of "real thru hikers". If I owned a biz and support what 500 real people?, that attracts thousands to "my biz". Hell yea i'd support you just to get "the crowed" here to "see" you. What do you think those "trail days things days are for?" Now I'm sure the "anti goverment" establisment will bash me for this but if you think it's a "problem" then come up with a soulution. If you don't then don't care and bash the "soulutions". Just have a GREAT DAY on the trail and love everyone else who doe's too no matter if it's one day or 180 days to the big "K"!

[PROFILE]

FYI. New numbers just posted by ATC to the service providers. Springer count is 1360 as of 06/06/05.

Still down a little. About 9% according to Laurie at ATC.

[Northern Harrier]

I'm not quite as cynical about the numbers. Most of the people I got to know from the beginning and well into my thru hike - those I hilited in my issue of the AT News - I'm pretty sure hiked the whole thing. I know quite a few who dropped out and at least four people that made it past Harpers and dropped out for one reason or another. And their names are not on the list. I'm sure there are people that, like Bryson, took the short cut around Albert Mtn. So what percentage? Don't know. I do think that the tremendous amount of information on the Trail has helped people to prepare and pack better. I think it is probable that a higher percentage actually does the whole thing. But what percentage -who knows? Equipment is definitely lighter: My state of the art Pack ten years ago weighed 6 pounds - empty! The new one I bought in CT only weighs 3. Of course I learned the hard way! Only thing I think is fair to say is that there was a bump in interest after Bryson's book. FYI, I didn't sign in at Amicalola - shuttle went right to the hotel - and the Ranger Station at the bottom of the Hunt Trail wasn't open at 5:30 AM - but I did sign the Trail register! Can't get too worried about other peoples hikes though....NH

[Bolivershagnasty]

:datz My putor is crashing and not acting like a good boy here

[Alligator]

Like I said, I think the numbers are sort of squishy. The one concept that I see as somewhat reasonable is to look at the numbers across the years. At each point, there are counts taken. Disregard the Springer counts, as they are just estimated from the Neel's Gap counts. While inaccurate, if each count for a particular point is recorded in the same fashion, the error introduced into each could be random. Some noise in the data. Sure, you will miss counting people, but is the reason that they are being uncounted the same across years?

Another way to think about it is if I were to measure the weight of say apples of several varieties, but my scale is off, can I decide if one type of apple generally weighs more than another? Well, if the scale is just off, 15 grams too heavy, yes I can. Even if it is +/- something, we can, as long as the +/- is small compared to the difference in apple types.

I don't really have an opinion on the completion rates. But across years, I do think there was some difference for 2000, 2001 vs 2002-2004 from Neels Gap to Fontana Dam. Then at the remaining points it appears that across years, the trends were very similar. Please note, however, that this is a far cry from a peer reviewed publishable result and I just present it as a general response.

Now on the other hand, there could be bias at a point across years. Two-footed cow pie:jump .

[Alligator]

And yet Baxter reports in detail to the ATC the data they collect about AT hikers. It's a wonder they don't use the data they have Baxter to collect.
Offhand, I cannot think of a reason why they don't use the Baxter numbers, but I am not familiar with how they are collected either.

[Tha Wookie]

Offhand, I cannot think of a reason why they don't use the Baxter numbers, but I am not familiar with how they are collected either.

i think all the moose do the counting

[Alligator]

Moose pie? That's a load of dooky.

[Lone Wolf]

Bloated, falsified numbers are good for the ATC.

[Blue Jay]

Rubbish!

Most people associated in any way with the AT, myself included, don't really care that hikers do any of this--UNTIL they go and sign that piece of paper and send it to ATC claiming they hiked the whole Trail. And so if the ATC percentages of completion are up, examples like these are significant reasons. It means you take that list printed in ATN with a large grain of salt, which is really a shame for those of us who actually did do all the white blazes.

Rubbish is correct, clearly you do really care. Why, because in a warped sense of logic you somehow believe what someone else does or does not do has an effect on your hike or "accomplishment". It does not. Get over it.

[Jaybird]

Facts and Statistics

2005 Thru-Hiker Count: Northbounders As of
June 5
Springer Mtn., Ga.
(southern end of A.T.) 1,360
Neels Gap, Ga.
(30 miles) 1,156
Fontana Dam, N.C.
(160 miles) 1,123
Harpers Ferry, W.Va.
(1,000 miles) 195
Katahdin, Maine
(northern end) -

[MOWGLI]

The few. The proud. The purists. :D

Make a nice t-shirt, wouldn't it?

[Tha Wookie]

Bloated, falsified numbers are good for the ATC.
Here comes the right-wing website talking point of the week... everyone get ready...

[rickb]

because in a warped sense of logic you somehow believe what someone else does or does not do has an effect on your hike or "accomplishment". It does not. Get over it.

When my golfing partners get creative with their scorring, it doesn't affect my sense of accomplishment (or lack there of) in any way either. On the otherhand, even though I'm not a stickler for USGA rules, I tend to enjoy playing more with people who don't ask me to put down a "4" after they just dropped two shots in a pond. Actually that kind of bugs me, even if it shouldn't. Especially when my partners are people I know and respect. Warped thinking? You may be right.

That said, the ATC's definition of what constitutes a thru hike is anachronistic. Clearly, completion of the Trail now means more about enjoying all its many dimensions (on and off trail) than simply walking the White Blazes. That may have been most important in the past, but is clearly less so now.

I would encourage anyone attending the ATC meeting in July to put forth a motion ending the ATC's formal 2,000 miler listing. Its not accurate and a constant source of ill feeling. The ATC should focus on conservancy. The very idea of asking a hiker to sign anything regarding his accomplishment is no longer appropriate.

[A-Train]

I'm not speaking for them, but from what I've seen, the ATC doesn't care much either way about what thru-hikers are hiking the whole trail or are not. Only the thru-hikers care. Thru-hikers are an incredibly small insignificant percentage of the people who use the AT annually. Sure they want to know how many people are leaving Georgia, to get an idea of how to manage impact in the early going on areas in the south, but how many wind up in Maine is not a big deal to them.
I've seen letters sent from the ATC office after folks wrote, claiming they didn;t really finish. The responses were always the same, along the lines that they left it up to the individual hiker to decide whether they wanted to be granted as a 2000 miler.
I don't think the ATC should do away with the 2000 miler program, unless it really causes them a huge headache. It's a nice thing to recognize your accomplishment afterwards, but it is only that. I don't see why it gets people so crazy. The hike itself SHOULD mean much more to you than a piece of paper or a patch to boast with on your pack

[Youngblood]

There is often a difference between a purist and being an elitist. I don't have any problems with white blaze purists. Elitist... well that's another story.

Youngblood

[Skyline]

There is often a difference between a purist and being an elitist. I don't have any problems with white blaze purists. Elitist... well that's another story.

Youngblood


Exactly. There is a difference. I hope I'm not coming off as an elitist. I don't think I am but perception is 99% of reality sometime.

To Blue Jay: The way others hike have never affected the way I view how I hike. Nor do I believe it to be so for most who chose to follow the white blazes exclusively before applying to ATC for their recognition. However, because so many people fill out that ATC form when they have in fact skipped sections or done non-AT alternatives, I believe each year more and more people view the list of "completions" published every May with suspicion. That fact does tend to bother some of us--not as how we view our hikes ourselves, but as others may view our hikes. Not much we can do about it though.

[Skyline]

[QUOTE=rickboudrie]Clearly, completion of the Trail now means more about enjoying all its many dimensions (on and off trail) than simply walking the White Blazes. That may have been most important in the past, but is clearly less so now.[QUOTE]

Agree that things have changed somewhat, as today many hikers want to make up their own criteria as to what constitutes an end-to-end hike. All fine and good, but in order to legitimately apply for and receive ATC's official recognition, I think you should still do what they expect of you (it's in writing) in order to receive their cert, patch, publication in ATN.

Now, if you want to talk about getting ATC to change their definition of what they expect in order to send you the recognition, that may be a worthwhile debate. Not sure at this point where I'd side. I have an open mind about it, but would like to hear everyone's most compelling arguments.

But as it stands right now, I think hikers who apply to ATC should in fact do what ATC expects, or refrain from applying and rejoice in whatever their hike meant to them in other ways.

[TJ aka Teej]

...in order to legitimately apply for and receive ATC's official recognition, I think you should still do what they expect of you (it's in writing) in order to receive their cert, patch, publication in ATN.
Agreed. I think that's why I like the ALDHA approach on opening night of the Gathering. They'll simply ask that the class of 2005, etc. rise and be recognized. I wrote the ATC a few years back and suggested they evolve the system of report and recognition into accepting reports of all AT hikes and rewarding them with a choice of rockers: one with that year's date, or one that said 2000 miler.

[Mags]

But as it stands right now, I think hikers who apply to ATC should in fact do what ATC expects, or refrain from applying and rejoice in whatever their hike meant to them in other ways.


More than one AT hiker wrote the ATC, told them they took a blue blaze trail, and rec'd their 2000 miler badge anyway. A few yellow blazers wrote them as well. The ATC gave them the patch and politely urged them to go back and hike the sections they missed. [1]

In reality, it appears the ATC does what most trail orgs do now : they have the corridor approach. It is not just one trail, but a network of trails. The PCTA works like this as well, so does the Colorado Trail foundation. I wrote the CTF, said I took some alternate routes (which were higher, longer and harder anyway)...they sent me a certificate. (Did not even know they had one!) The CDT is truly a corrdior in name and fact.

So, the ATC does expect people to hike from Georgia to Maine. It is only on paper where they do not have the corridor approach to hiking the trail. Perhaps someday the ATC will offficially put down on paper what they do in practice. In reality, they have much more important things to worry about then handing out patches.

I was an Ivory Snow purist (99.4% pure) Missed a few blazes into and out of shelters and around blowdowns. IF I do the AT again, I'd be tainted by my time out West.
Would get a a set of maps and follow the trails that look good to me. Then again, I probably would not bother writing the ATC at this point as well.

YMMV.


[1] The blue blaze story I have heard first hand, seen written down on paper and heard from others. The yellow blaze story saw on a thread here on Whiteblaze a while ago.

[Skyline]

More than one AT hiker wrote the ATC, told them they took a blue blaze trail, and rec'd their 2000 miler badge anyway. A few yellow blazers wrote them as well. The ATC gave them the patch and politely urged them to go back and hike the sections they missed. . .

. . . I was an Ivory Snow purist (99.4% pure) Missed a few blazes into and out of shelters and around blowdowns. IF I do the AT again, I'd be tainted by my time out West.
Would get a a set of maps and follow the trails that look good to me. Then again, I probably would not bother writing the ATC at this point as well. .


I, too, have read these responses from ATC's Laurie Potteiger. It seems to me the most relevant part of Laurie's response is that ATC still expects one to go back and do the white blazes missed. I guess the alternative would be to rescind those hikers' certificates/patches/publication of names, which ATC doesn't seem anxious to get involved with.

And I agree, Mags, that if I was ever to hike from Georgia to Maine a second time (doubtful but ya never know), I would intentionally try to do alternate routes just for the diversity of it. But I would not make a claim to ATC that I had hiked the Appalachian Trail if I did that.

[Skyline]

Agreed. I think that's why I like the ALDHA approach on opening night of the Gathering. They'll simply ask that the class of 2005, etc. rise and be recognized.


Yes, ALDHA doesn't have a written criteria one is expected to adhere to in order to be recognized as part of the Class of 2005, etc. ATC does. No problem with either approach, and it's easy to understand what you need to do to qualify for either recognition.

[capehiker]

My guess is that the numbers reached a peak due to interest sparked by “A Walk in the Woods.” I’d also guess that there were a lot more relatively inexperienced people attempting the hike soon after the book became popular. A disproportionate number of these people may have liked the IDEA of hiking the AT better than they actually liked hiking.

That was my first thought as well. In the summer of 2000 I was a AT trail leader for a summer camp. When I told friends and family my plans I got the standard "Oh, did you read that book by that guy?". I think the "Bryson Effect" may have played more of a role.

On a lighter note, upon seeing the lesser starting numbers each year, by the time I get to thru hike in 2011, I'll be starting with 200 or so people. :D

[Mags]

I, too, have read these responses from ATC's Laurie Potteiger. It seems to me the most relevant part of Laurie's response is that ATC still expects one to go back and do the white blazes missed. I guess the alternative would be to rescind those hikers' certificates/patches/publication of names, which ATC doesn't seem anxious to get involved with.




Hmm.. I have heard and read differently. First hand and others. If the ATC can't give the same response all the time..then why worry about it? :)

[Skyline]

Hmm.. I have heard and read differently. First hand and others. If the ATC can't give the same response all the time..then why worry about it? :)


Actually, I was agreeing with you (at least in principle) when you earlier wrote: "The ATC gave them the patch and politely urged them to go back and hike the sections they missed. . ."

This is essentially what I've read on this and other forums when Laurie's response was republished. This was a case of someone writing to ATC >>>after<<< receiving recognition, in effect 'fessing up that they had missed some miles. She urged them (yes, politely) to go back and hike what they missed, and added that ATC wasn't in the business of "taking back" certificates of completion.

I have not heard or read that anyone ever signed the form, sent it in, and admitted on the form (BEFORE receiving anything from ATC) that they missed miles but still expected their cert/patch/publication. I honestly don't know what ATC's response would be in a situation like that. Knowing the heavy workload in Harpers Ferry, unless that "confession" was heavily emphasized on the form I could see it being overlooked.

[Mags]

[QUOTE=Skyline]Actually, I was agreeing with you (at least in principle) when you earlier wrote: "The ATC gave them the patch and politely urged them to go back and hike the sections they missed. . ." [QUOTE]

If you are going to quote me, at least quote me correctly, or at least not out of context. :) FOR YELLOW BLAZING they have done that. Bob Cuming gives the classic example of someone calling from Monson and said they took the old blue-blaze road walk. The person asked the ATC if they should go back. The ATC's response? They really didn't care! :) Just walk from GA to ME without yellow blazing, it seems.

Anyway, I am too lazy to search the various AT message board articles. But it seems the corridor approach is alive and well for the ATC. Just not on paper. C'est la vie.

[Ford Prefect]

Where exactly does the ATC's "15%" drop out happen, though?
My theory: The first (or perhaps the second) place that sells beer!

:banana

[Footslogger]

This post left intentionally blank (cuz I screwed up and thought I was on a different thread)

[Jack Tarlin]

In case anyone's interested:

For several months now (basicaly from Neel's Gap on) I've been hearing everyone talking about how the numbers are WAY down this year, with lots fewer hikers on the Trail.

I've been maintaining for quite awhile that I didn't think this was actually the case.

According to the ATC phographic albums in Harpers Ferry, as of 06-25-05 (yesterday) they've had exactly 10 fewer thru-hikers pass thru than on this date last year, i.e., if the numbers are down, they're down no more than 2%. Also, there are a lot of folks still coming; both Miss Janet in Erwin and Bob Peoples in Kincora were surprised that they were still busy (i.e. they had full hostels) well after Memorial Day weekend, which usually is the start of their "slow" period. I think there are plenty of folks still heading North, with the greatest concentration probably being between Waynesboro and here (Harpers Ferry).

I think ultimately the final numbers for 2005, i.e. reported complete thru-hikes will be very similar to last year's.

[wacocelt]

I'd speculate that the numbers recorded at Neels Gap are pretty close to the truth about how many have started a northbound thru.

Then you'de be speculating in the dark. The folks at Neel Gap do a terrific job of 'tuckerizing' potential Thru-Hikers packs, getting them into better foot wear, rain gear, or selling them Leki poles etc., which severely limits thier ability to take a roll call of every swinging pack that passes over blood mountain.
Until the ATC or some other concerned entity posts sentries to individually check the ID of each and every hiker that passes the 'percentage marks' mentioned above, then there won't be any way in H E double hockey sticks to know for sure. All these numbers and percentages are good for is to allow the internet(pack-sniffing) community to wring thier grubby little mitts together and giggle at the thought of people failing at a dream they don't have the time, money or balls to attempt.


And Wookie, you and I had a disussion a few months ago about disparaging comments towards groups of people we don't necessarily see eye to eye with. Practice what you preach Hippie! :D

[Burn]

Just a note to add, last year, I came over Hump Mt with one other guy....this year i past thru with count em 13 folks scattered 100 yards apart....it was actually rather horrifying....stop telling folks about the AT...if they find it on their own, they are welcome

[Blue Jay]

I think ultimately the final numbers for 2005, i.e. reported complete thru-hikes will be very similar to last year's.

I totally agree with this assessment. There are already more great thrus coming thru in my neck of the woods than usual. Many of them recent former military, who've come back from hell and are not inclined to be noticed or counted.

[wacocelt]

I counted 252 people in the Greyson Highlands in a 6 hour period, on a Tuesday. I also witnesses a disabled child get bit by a horse and a group of 6 old folks, huddled around a medic bag, waiting for rescue. Those two instances were within .1 miles of each other.
Thus my motivation to stop hiking north, wipe the slate and start a SoBo hike.

Did I also metion that I saw 4 different fire rings so piled with empty gatorade/soda bottles and snack wrappers that I could barely see the stones comprising the ring?

It is MY opinion that we should take a lesson from the Japanese (the American graphitti artist incident) and require Park Rangers and Ridge Runners to carry ratan canes and apply them to the hind quarters of the ignorant, slovenly masses that leave all that tripe in our public wildlands.

[SGT Rock]

Another alternative is to open up the trail and the trail systems around it as a corridor so if you find too much crowding on the trail in one section, you can take an alternate side trail or set of side trails so that you can go the road less traveled. Of course you can now if you want to, but there will be those that worry that they're not a thru-hiker anymore.

[Jack Tarlin]

The caning incident that Celt refers to took place in the spring of 1994, and it was in Singapore, not Japan.

But Celt's heart is in the right place, and on this matter, I agree with him. Public corporal punishment for vandals is a fine idea.

[wacocelt]

I apologize for sidetracking the original intent of this post. You folks can go back to tossing around meaningless numbers and frivolous statistics now. :D

Edit:: Thanks for settin' me straight B.Jack (hehe B.Jack, like Billy Jack... you could be the Tom Laughlin of the AT Jack! GRARR!)

Thanks also for the Blue-Blazing suggetion Top, but I don't carry maps and everytime I take a side trail it leads me to a road, which leads me to a town, which leads me to an AYCE and beer. If I'm ever gonna finish this dang trail I'de better keep my noe to the white blazes. :datz

[SGT Rock]

Thanks also for the Blue-Blazing suggetion Top, but I don't carry maps and everytime I take a side trail it leads me to a road, which leads me to a town, which leads me to an AYCE and beer. If I'm ever gonna finish this dang trail I'de better keep my noe to the white blazes. :datz]

I can't belive a good infantryman like you would go out without maps :eek:

Have a good hike, SOBO sounds good too :D

[wacocelt]

Hey now, that was a cheap shot! One of the few quality peices of equiptment I was supplied in Panama was maps. You send someone .1 off the trail, spin em around three times and give em an ATC map they're more likely to end up on the PCT or in the UK than back on the blazes.

Folks, I tried to get ya's back on topic, but the big cheese feels you've had enough fun. Everyone please report to your nearest trailhead and knock out 20!

[A-Train]

Not so sure I would go as far as desiring a cane, but it is awfully frustrating as a Ridgerunner when I have to pack out gallons (literally) of trash after a weekend on the Kitattiny Ridge. I even found a gas grill and coleman fuel can abandoned on the side of the trail yesterday. Oh and did I mention a waffle iron grill at Sunfish Pond? The impact the trail sees during this time of year is way too much for Rangers and Ridgerunners, especially when people blatantly don't follow rules, such as camping illegally and insisting on making fires.

Very frustrating, but not suprising

[SGT Rock]

I concur, I went out to my section yesterday and there was so much trash at a campsite along the Little Tennessee that I didn't have the ability to carry it all out, and I had forgot to bring a lighter, otherwise I would have just made a bonfire and toted the remainder of the trash out. Seems that people think a trash fairy will come and get it all up for them, and a perfectly nice campsite is ruined in the interim.

[Youngblood]

I concur, I went out to my section yesterday and there was so much trash at a campsite along the Little Tennessee that I didn't have the ability to carry it all out, and I had forgot to bring a lighter, otherwise I would have just made a bonfire and toted the remainder of the trash out. Seems that people think a trash fairy will come and get it all up for them, and a perfectly nice campsite is ruined in the interim.
Hmmmm.... Trash Fairy. That's kind of a catchy name. :) All kidding aside, everyone of us that hike the trails appreciate what you and the other trash fairies are doing.

Youngblood

[Jester2000]

Hey Rock, ATrain and other trash fairies -- I've got a question for ya. It's possible that this is just my perception and I'm completely wrong, but does it seem to you that you find the most trash in places closer to the roads? I've packed out a lot of other people's trash over the years, and yet it seems like I never have to carry it that far.

What I see (and again, I could be wrong here) is a lot of people heading in for an overnight and a bit of a party, but not too far. And then leaving behind stuff that was heavier when they packed it in, 'cause they don't need it anymore and they're lazy (and, it should be noted, they weren't really out there for the nature anyway, so who cares if you mess it up). The recent Billville cleanup trip to Whitetop seems to bear this out.

Or am I wrong, and long-distance folk are as much to blame as anyone else?

[Freighttrain]

i know i cant even count how many times ive found neat lil ziplocks full of what looked like, and i consider to be, LDH trash tossed neatly into firerings..... or mtn house wrappers in the firering w a pebble in it to keep wild animals and wind from moving it:D

it still dont add up to anywhere near the trash local drunks leave on trail ....... i say drunks because of the ammount of beer cans and broken/melted beer bottles.

[cutman11]

Getting back to the original topic of this thread.....I just finished the section into Harper's Ferry and went back to spend a nite at the Terrapin Station Hostel. Mike Evans felt his numbers were way down from previous years, but for some reason it seems that they just hadnt gotten as far as fast this year. When you look at the completion numbers, they are actually about the same from year to year, the % was lower in 2000 and 2001 mostly due to inept starters adding to the number at springer, but as they stumbled their way up the trail they dropped out leaving the "normal" number of folks destined to make it all the way.

The numbers are for sure "soft" but on average, are probably about the same amount "off" from year to year for a given site, so it may be more accurate to consider the number at a certain place from year to year more so than the % that complete hikes in a given year.

[TJ aka Teej]

Interesting trend towards topic drift :D



Or am I wrong, and long-distance folk are as much to blame as anyone else?
Two or three times a year I clean up the Long Distance Hiker site in Baxter Park. The Rangers clean there almost every day. The Daicey Pond lean-tos were pretty bad, but the Birches gets trashed even more. You'd think by the time LDHs get to Katahdin they'd "get it", but they still leave lots of garbage and litter behind.

[Jack Tarlin]

Cutman---

You're right. Specific places or locations may be down, but in point of fact, the Harpers Ferry figures for number of thru-hikers reaching the ATC office is now just AHEAD of last year.

Another interesting thing to think about: While the number of actual starters in Georgia may be down from previous years, more and more folks are making it thru the first critical weeks, and are lasting longer on the Trail----there may be fewer starters, but there's also fewer early dropouts, meaning people are sticking around longer. This inevitably means that if a greater percentage of them get to, say, Damascus, this means there'll be a greater percentage that go all the way. Thanx to the fact that most folks are now going out better prepared, better equipped, with lighter stuff, and are better informed (thanx perhaps to informational sites like this one), while there may indeed be fewer STARTERS, there are now more FINISHERS. Fewer early
dropouts means a greater percentage of each year's hiker class is likely to stick it out. Good weather this season (at least so far) didn't hurt, either.

I think that at season's end, what we're going to see is a big drop in reported (or estimated) starters, but about the same number/percentage of finishers. The rwo reasons for this:

*More folks are getting thru the critical early weeks and therefore have a greater chance of finishing.

*The number of folks who falsely report a finish grows every year as the "stigma" that was previously attached to such exaggerations no longer exists....there are folks in this year's "Thru-Hiker" photo album who essentially skipped Virginia.

[ARambler]

Jack, I have a couple of questions.
1) What is "good weather" this year? Are dropouts most affected by: snow, days of rain early, overall days of rain, or hot dry weather during the VA-MA grind?

Note, Bob reported the early hikers at Kinkora were way down this year due to the bad weather in Feb-March. This will not affect the yearly statistics, because many will just arrive with the pack and the small percentage, that start super early, wouldn't affect overall completions. I thought last year was better than this year through late May, then, much wetter the normal.

2) Do you think this lack of "stigma" is causing more people to skip miles of white blazes or just more of the people of who "skipped VA" are now taking credit for doing the whole trail? I know this is even harder to define than the difference between a purist and an ultra purist.

Most of the difference I have seen this year is due to being in the pack* versus an early finisher, but this year, I heard about lots of people skipping large sections in VA, especially, The Creeper Trail, Mah Har Trail, walking Blue Ridge Parkway/Skyline Drive, or Aqua Blazing. I doubt you get to Katahdin a day faster by doing all of these (not sure about Aqua Blazing). Hike your own hike seems to mean don't hike the whole AT. (I don't want to get into the purist debate here, but will disclose I'm not an ultra purist.)

* Currently, like the other rift-raft, I've hiked to Harpers Ferry. Tomorrow, I flip to the Whites.

3) Is there a better way to count?

I like the idea of everyone being encouraged to sign in the ATC photo album, even if they only have the slightest intention of going back and cleaning up their hike. It would have been great to see section hiker Rambler 77-87 in the book. I love to obsess over completion rate data. It would be great to see an upward trend in both starts and completion rate as the trail, equipment, hostels, trail magic, and information improve. I don't think it is too important that the trend will be slow and noisey.


4) You say "I think that at season's end, what we're going to see is a big drop in reported (or estimated) starters, but about the same number/percentage of finishers. "

From you discussion I assume you meant: "I think that at season's end, what we're going to see is a SIGNIFICANT drop in reported (or estimated) starters, but about the same number OF FINISHERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE/percentage of finishers.
Rambler

[Smile]

I may be going way out on a limb here, but here's a theory.... what about several of the documentaries now available?

Possilby referred to as the "Discovery Channel" syndrome.....why go to Africa to see a Lion or to Egypt to see the Pyramids, when you can sit on your hind end and get it all in glorious color with a free tour guide on TV or DVD? Tourism numbers are down in areas that have been hit by extreme weather, local uprisings, hardships etc. primarily because of the ability of TV to mass "advertise" world news. Perhaps the same trend affects those who hike.....

Documentaries are available and many discuss the hardships and difficulty of a TH, I had never personally seen a blackened toe and someone "flick" their toenail off until I saw the recent "Appalachian Impressions", not because I had never hiked, but just never saw it presented so clearly before. (Note: I do not intend to single out one DVD, just mention this one as an example, they all have something to offer!)

Perhaps lots of people who want to start a TH do what most of us do/did- get the books first, and whatever VIDs/DVD's that are out there to try to get a feel and a "taste" for what is to come. We all like to digest what we see and then decide whether we can do it or not - maybe some folks see that it's really hard and figure watching a DVD was just as good, and it's not worth actually doing.

HOWEVER - it goes both ways, and IMO they may ADD to future numbers who start a hike, but I also believe that the numbers on the finishing end will rise in the future. The reason being that perhaps those who start out will be more informed, realize it's not an easy hike in the woods, and get into it with the attitude that they can handle it - and a deeper desire to finish.

Just a thought.