View Full Version : Where do you think I'll be on July 9th?
If I leave going NOBO on April 1st where do you think I'll be at July 9th? I might have to fly to Costa Rica for a wedding and would be returning to the trail July 19th. April 1st to July 9th would be 100 days on the trail. I'm not sure what I'll average, I'm a 27/m who is in okay shape, have done weekend backpacking trips, nothing close to a thru. Not sure if i'll average 13-14 or or 18-24, just looking for a guesstimate based on other peoples experience. If everything goes well and there are no major setbacks I would assume I'd be about 1500 miles into the trip? Way off?
Magic_Rat
01-29-2013, 20:53
I am thru hiking this summer for the first time, so I can't speak from personal experience but AWOL of The A.T. Guide has basic plans on his website according to average miles a day.
According to this link, for an average 12 mile/day hiker,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-12.html
day 100 would put you around Duncannon, PA.
For a 15 mile/day average,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-15.html
day 100 would put you around Salisbury, CT.
And for an 18 mile/day average,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-18.html
you'd be around Gorham, NH.
Those would be pretty rough estimates, and I don't think he factors in any zero days. Hope this helps!
I am thru hiking this summer for the first time, so I can't speak from personal experience but AWOL of The A.T. Guide has basic plans on his website according to average miles a day.
According to this link, for an average 12 mile/day hiker,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-12.html
day 100 would put you around Duncannon, PA.
For a 15 mile/day average,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-15.html
day 100 would put you around Salisbury, CT.
And for an 18 mile/day average,
http://theatguide.com/PlanNobo2010-18.html
you'd be around Gorham, NH.
Those would be pretty rough estimates, and I don't think he factors in any zero days. Hope this helps!
Thanks for that, when people say there averages per day is that generally per hiking day or per day with zeros and neros included?
Spirit Walker
01-29-2013, 21:14
I started both AT thruhikes on April 1. On the first I was at Wawayanda on July 4th (northern NJ/NY border), on my second I was at Del. Water Gap on July 4th. You could probably catch the train in to NY before the 9th. I finished my first hike Sept. 10th and my second Sept. 23rd, so was about a 12 mpd hiker.
I started both AT thruhikes on April 1. On the first I was at Wawayanda on July 4th (northern NJ/NY border), on my second I was at Del. Water Gap on July 4th. You could probably catch the train in to NY before the 9th. I finished my first hike Sept. 10th and my second Sept. 23rd, so was about a 12 mpd hiker.
Yea I was thinking I would probably fly out of JFK or Newark, probably get the cheapest flights out of there too.
Leanthree
01-29-2013, 21:35
If you are anywhere between Delaware Water Gap and Hanover, NH it is pretty easy to get to New York City in half a day or so by public transportation to fly out.
If you are anywhere between Delaware Water Gap and Hanover, NH it is pretty easy to get to New York City in half a day or so by public transportation to fly out.
Good to know, I'm thinking I'll be somewhere in the middle of the two so this will work out perfectly.
Leanthree
01-29-2013, 22:58
Good to know, I'm thinking I'll be somewhere in the middle of the two so this will work out perfectly.
See http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?79769-Public-Transportation-to-the-AT-from-NYC&highlight=public+transportation+new+york which I posted a year or so ago.
See http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?79769-Public-Transportation-to-the-AT-from-NYC&highlight=public+transportation+new+york which I posted a year or so ago.
Great list you have put together, thank you!
If you are still on the trail after 100 days (and fewer than half of aspiring thru-hikers are), if you make progress like the overall "average" completing thru-hiker you would be around Delaware Water Gap PA, and if you make progress like the "average" completing male thru-hiker under the age of 30 you would be around Kent CT. I got these estimates from the hiker database featured in this article:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?44
Of course most hikers vary significantly from the "average." To give you an idea of the broad range, the "middle" 80% of completing NOBO thru-hikers (excluding the 10% fastest and 10% slowest) after 100 days would be anywhere from southern PA to northern MA.
]If I leave going NOBO on April 1st where do you think I'll be at July 9th? [/SIZE]
If you are still on the trail after 100 days (and fewer than half of aspiring thru-hikers are)......
The Appalachian Trail Conservancy website states: "Each year, thousands of hikers attempt a thru-hike; only about one in four make it all the way".
The Laughing Dog Blog http://www.laughingdog.com/2012/02/appalachian-trail-completion-rates.html looked at completion rates at various milestones on the trail in the years 2005-2011. Of those who started at Springer--48% had dropped out by Harper's Ferry. And, 72% did not make it to Katahdin.
So, statistically speaking, there is a very good chance that you will be at home on July 9th! :)
on my 2006 and 2012 thru's i was at the Delaware Water Gap in 2.5 months thats doing 20-25 MPD, if you do 18 MPD in 100 days you should be around the NY- Conneticute area, Good luck and have lots of fun. RED-DOG