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02-04-2013, 09:29
does anyone have any idea of how many people start a thru that don't declare it on whiteblaze.

just curious.

- pages

hikerboy57
02-04-2013, 09:31
does anyone have any idea of how many people start a thru that don't declare it on whiteblaze.

just curious.

- pages
certainly more than declare a triple yo yo attempt.
i have a feeling it would be more than half.

WingedMonkey
02-04-2013, 09:32
About 99 %

garlic08
02-04-2013, 09:37
I, for one, had never even heard of Whiteblaze until well after I'd completed my thru hike. Mags told me about it on a hike.

I suspect the 99% number is close to the truth.

yellowsirocco
02-04-2013, 09:43
I can see possibly not getting involved on here, but I cannot see not even having the knowledge of this place. I just did a google search on 'appalachian trail' and whiteblaze is the number 8 result. #4 for 'appalachian trail planning'. I guess some people don't mind taking off six months without proper planning.

RCBear
02-04-2013, 09:53
I'm guessing not as many as are on Whiteblaze that haven't.

.... including yours truly :)

RCBear
02-04-2013, 09:53
I'm guessing not as many as are on Whiteblaze that haven't.

.... including yours truly :)

Done a thru that is

moldy
02-04-2013, 09:55
In casual talking with hikers on the trail each year, I would say that 75% have never even accidently stumbled onto Whiteblaze. More people say that they got some hiking information from youtube.

coach lou
02-04-2013, 10:02
I can see possibly not getting involved on here, but I cannot see not even having the knowledge of this place. I just did a google search on 'appalachian trail' and whiteblaze is the number 8 result. #4 for 'appalachian trail planning'. I guess some people don't mind taking off six months without proper planning.

I did the same last September, getting back on the trail after an 11 year absence. I'm glad I did find it. It has helped get my pack weight down and I have found some great folks to walk with........although it has now made me obsess and my fishing gear has been neglected.:(

Train Wreck
02-04-2013, 10:11
I did the same last September, getting back on the trail after an 11 year absence. I'm glad I did find it. It has helped get my pack weight down and I have found some great folks to walk with........although it has now made me obsess and my fishing gear has been neglected.:(

Be careful, dynamite gets unstable after a long period of storage.

Cookerhiker
02-04-2013, 10:23
I'd guess at least the majority, probably more, have never heard of WhiteBlaze.

Astro
02-04-2013, 10:30
I can see possibly not getting involved on here, but I cannot see not even having the knowledge of this place. I just did a google search on 'appalachian trail' and whiteblaze is the number 8 result. #4 for 'appalachian trail planning'. I guess some people don't mind taking off six months without proper planning.

And a lot of those without the proper planning don't make it either. :(
Hated seeing guys drop off in GA, when I was more prepared for my Spring Break section hike than they were for a thru hike, Painful to watch them struggling to get down a mountain with "shredded" feet, so they could get off the trail.

Astro
02-04-2013, 10:33
It would interesting to know the completion rate of WB thru-hike attempts as opposed to non-WBers. :-?

Train Wreck
02-04-2013, 10:35
It would interesting to know the completion rate of WB thru-hike attempts as opposed to non-WBers. :-?
Oz will complete his cyber hike on March 23. Oh, that's not what you meant :o

WingedMonkey
02-04-2013, 10:38
It would interesting to know the completion rate of WB thru-hike attempts as opposed to non-WBers. :-?

Based on how many announce hikes on WB compared with how many are ever heard from again on WB, I'd say the odds are just as low.

BirdBrain
02-04-2013, 11:03
does anyone have any idea of how many people start a thru that don't declare it on whiteblaze.

just curious.

- pages

42. Take that MM.

Sly
02-04-2013, 11:08
I'd be willing to bet there's as many lurkers on Whiteblaze that are thru-hiking that wish to remain anonymous, as Whiteblaze members that have announced their thru-hike.

BirdBrain
02-04-2013, 11:18
I'd be willing to bet there's as many lurkers on Whiteblaze that are thru-hiking that wish to remain anonymous, as Whiteblaze members that have announced their thru-hike.

I have wondered about that. Is it prudent to announce your every move on the internet? I can understand those that don't... especially if they leave an empty place behind.

cliffdiver
02-04-2013, 12:02
I have wondered about that. Is it prudent to announce your every move on the internet? I can understand those that don't... especially if they leave an empty place behind.

My thoughts exactly. I decided not to announce on Facebook or other social media for that simple fact. However I do have lots of old, bitter retiree neighbors who would love to shoot a burglar if given the chance and opportunity, so I'm not too worried.

Astro
02-04-2013, 12:14
My thoughts exactly. I decided not to announce on Facebook or other social media for that simple fact. However I do have lots of old, bitter retiree neighbors who would love to shoot a burglar if given the chance and opportunity, so I'm not too worried.

Sounds like you have good neighbors. :)

BirdBrain
02-04-2013, 12:24
Sounds like you have good neighbors. :)

Fully agree. If you don't have "good neighbors", announce at on risk. If you do have "good neighbors", feel free to share. I have very good neighbors. They once chased my own mother out of my house when I was gone. I explained to them she was welcome. They said they were not taking any chances.

david_1
02-04-2013, 12:35
I know people who dont use computers ever...so there must be others and they wont of heard of WB

HikerMom58
02-04-2013, 12:40
Personally, I love WB and would get all my information on this site for any and all hiking endeavors. I would love the support of this site and wouldn't think twice about announcing my hike on here.

My daughter started her attempted thru hike in April of 2008. She had never heard of WB. She loves to read books. She learned a lot by READING BOOKS. She talked to knowledgeable people in person (she worked at Outdoor Trails in Daleville) She went to weekend backpacking workshops. She went on weekend backpacking trips with experienced people. She learned the MOST by actually hiking the trail. She learned things from other hikers within hours of setting her foot on the trail.

Here's her own account of how someone learned the ropes of being on the trail, for the very first time, without ever reading anything or announcing her hike on White Blaze......

" I began to think of arriving at the shelter with butterflies in my stomach. I hadn't seen anyone on the trail, so I had no idea who might be there. I felt like a little kid on their first day at a new school. Would the other "kids" like me? What would I say to them? Would they want to talk to me? I had no idea what to expect. I had never camped at a shelter before, and I had never been out camping on my own.


As I followed the short blue blaze up to the shelter, I could eventually see people moving around and smoke from a campfire. I got closer and people started greeting me, welcoming me to join them around the fire. They were all very friendly and began introducing themselves. Five of them were section hikers heading south, a group of three named Downhill Donna, Waterman, and Alf (who had just gotten his trail name the day before), all around my parents' age, and a pair of girls around my age named Wonder Woman (because of the WW shirt she wears) and Diana Prince (her alter ego). Both groups had been doing sections of the AT for years. The other two hikers were a college couple, thru-hiking northbound like me, and their names were Whiplash and Applecore.


Downhill asked me if I'd just come from town to which I said yes, then added that this was actually the first day of my thru-hike, feeling strangely awkward as I said it.


"This is your first day?!" she asked enthusiastically, "Congratulations!"


Then to my utter surprise the entire lot of them began clapping for me. I looked around in wonder as I was surounded by applause - Alf clapping for me leaning out of his tent, Whiplash doing so from in the shelter, everyone else around the fire and picnic table. Startled and touched, I found I had to fight to keep myself from tearing up. I suppose their reaction struck me as validation for what I was attempting to do out here. To get that kind of encouragement from others with so much experience, mere hours after I'd set out - well, it was amazing and very heartening.


Then they started fussing at me to take off my pack and wet shoes, encouraging me to relax at the table or in the shelter, and I felt as if I'd stumbled across a group of long-lost family members. Again I felt a little awkward as I tried to figure out what to do with myself and my stuff. Helping, they directed me to add my hiking poles to their collection and suggested a place for my shoes. Propping my bag up against a support beam I began going through my things to check for dampness, starting at the top, and was very pleased to discover that my pack, despite being dumped on with no rain cover, had resisted soaking through and most of my stuff was still bone dry, with only a few unimportant things being mildly damp.


The others told me that if I wanted to stay in the shelter there was still room, as Downhill, Waterman, and Alf were all tenting. I was torn because it would be nice to stay up on the wonderfully dry sleeping platform, but my tent felt more secure to me, keeping out the bugs and anything else that my be inclined to join me in my sleeping bag. Whiplash mentioned that I should try to avoid one spot that looked like it had a "rain hole" above it (Applecore later in the night suggested we might have better luck if we'd just quit refering to it as a "rain hole"), so I used that as my excuse to go check out my tent site options. Downhill helpfully pointed out some good places to consider, noting that one spot would be nice because the leaf cover on the ground would keep it from being muddy - something I hadn't yet thought of in my little bit of camping experience and yet immediately recognized as important to remember and consider in the future. So I chose that spot and began setting up my tent, and while doing so Alf and Wonder Woman alternately came out to chat with me about my tent and my plans for my trip. It was really nice.


I finished getting everything into my tent just as it was getting dark and the other tent dwellers were retreating into bed for the night. They said goodnight and disappeared and I returned to the shelter to see about dinner. It was very windy now and spitting rain, so I hunkered down in the shelter and talked to Wonder Woman, Diana Prince, Whiplash, and Applecore while making soup on my Jetboil.


As I'm writing this, it occurs to me how oddly disproportinate things were that night. Not only were there FOUR girls sitting in that shelter, which is an unusually high number of females by regular trail standards, but Whiplash was the only guy!


Anyway, I had a great time finding out why everyone else was doing the trail and having the chance to ask advice on things like how many days of food they usually carried and how often they went into towns. WW and Diana Prince shared funny stories about how little they'd known about backpacking the first time they went out, how they'd borrowed most of their gear initially, and how much unnecessary weight they'd carried. At one point Diana Price stared at me with interest and said, "We've never met someone on their first out day before - all the hikers we meet have already been broken in." I agreed that I was indeed a "newbie" and felt happy that I was a type of "first" for them. At some point Whiplash and Applecore began attempts to lash their tarp across the front of their side of the shelter, just in case the rain picked up again. (For those who don't know, trail shelters usually consist of a roof, a sleeping platform, and three walls - so one side is left completely open to the elements. I'm sure there are good reasons for this, but I haven't thought of what those might be yet.) They eventually succeeded, and by that time everyone had their headlamps on which lit the shelter surprisingly well. The open side in front of WW and DP had a nice, nighttime view of the city lights twinkling across the valley. Whiplash was mending some piece of equipment with needle and thread and Applecore had begun making a fancy Mountain House dessert for the two of them. I couldn't believe how cozy the shelter had become. Eventually I finished my soup and tea and reluctantly started gearing up to leave. They all offered once more for me to stay in the shelter, and I thanked them but declined and headed out.


In my tent I tried to stay up a little while to journal and look at my guidebooks, but I found myself too tired to do that for long. I don't think I had any trouble falling asleep."




-Strange Habit

She hiked 500 miles after this first journal entry

Slo-go'en
02-04-2013, 12:41
Somebody needs to do a survey. Sit at the FS42 parking lot from March to May with a clip board, then again from Sept until Oct 15 at Abol bridge. Lets get some hard numbers :)

Another fun thing to do would be to set up game camaras at the start of the trail, then at each state line and finally at Baxter. That could provide some interesting data.

WingedMonkey
02-04-2013, 12:44
Somebody needs to do a survey. Sit at the FS42 parking lot from March to May with a clip board, then again from Sept until Oct 15 at Abol bridge. Lets get some hard numbers :)

Another fun thing to do would be to set up game camaras at the start of the trail, then at each state line and finally at Baxter. That could provide some interesting data.

There you go. Hating on Yellow Blazers again.

:p

prain4u
02-04-2013, 12:54
When it comes to whether or not someone had ever checked out WhiteBlaze before starting their thru hike, I am guessing that one's age would make a difference as would the year when you started hiking (especially the year when they started seriously hiking the AT).

Many people in the younger generation rarely do ANYTHING without involving the internet somehow. And, today, it is pretty difficult to google "Appalachian Trail" without WhiteBlaze coming up in the search somehow. So, I am merely speculating that a larger number of younger hikers would have at least stumbled upon WhiteBlaze at sometime--but they may not have necessarily posted on WB or spent countless hours on WB.

atmilkman
02-04-2013, 13:18
I found WhiteBlaze and TrailJournals from a link on the ATC website years ago. I was one of the ones that lurked for a long time because it was going to be a long time before I was going to be able to hike. When it got within a couple of years and began to become a reality is when I started to interact and post. And, I'm glad I did. I've gotten some really good advice and suggestions and have met some really great people that I have already hiked with and some that I will be hiking with. I've met people on here that are going to help me resupply and with any luck spend some time with at Trail Days and elsewhere. I don't know if I'll succeed in completing my thru in one straight shot but I'm going at it like I will. I feel that being on and associating with the people on WhiteBlaze has done nothing but increase my chances.

hikerboy57
02-04-2013, 13:29
When it comes to whether or not someone had ever checked out WhiteBlaze before starting their thru hike, I am guessing that one's age would make a difference as would the year when you started hiking (especially the year when they started seriously hiking the AT).

Many people in the younger generation rarely do ANYTHING without involving the internet somehow. And, today, it is pretty difficult to google "Appalachian Trail" without WhiteBlaze coming up in the search somehow. So, I am merely speculating that a larger number of younger hikers would have at least stumbled upon WhiteBlaze at sometime--but they may not have necessarily posted on WB or spent countless hours on WB.

i can tell you that if you google appalachian trail cyber cafe, we're #1 on the list.

Giantsbane
02-04-2013, 13:39
It took me a long time to actually start posting on WB. And I know I still havn't done a lot of that. It can be intimidating at first.

The 2013 Thru Hiker thread on here already has sooo many claiming they are going and going to do the whole thing, I don't even want to imagine the amount of people that will be there in the first few weeks. I guess I just need to hike fast.

Slo-go'en
02-04-2013, 16:47
In a typical year about 1500 people start as "thru-hikers", mostly in March and April. Its safe to assume that many don't sign in on the "class" thread or start a trailjournals.

nitewalker
02-04-2013, 16:54
And a lot of those without the proper planning don't make it either. :(
Hated seeing guys drop off in GA, when I was more prepared for my Spring Break section hike than they were for a thru hike, Painful to watch them struggling to get down a mountain with "shredded" feet, so they could get off the trail.


im gonna lean toward the 99% figure.

painful to you watching them. i would have been laughing down the mtn behind them. i love watching the unprepared suffer. its very entertaining....:D

nitewalker
02-04-2013, 17:03
It took me a long time to actually start posting on WB. And I know I still havn't done a lot of that. It can be intimidating at first.

The 2013 Thru Hiker thread on here already has sooo many claiming they are going and going to do the whole thing, I don't even want to imagine the amount of people that will be there in the first few weeks. I guess I just need to hike fast.

i was the same way. it took me a year of lurking before i posted my 1st comment. u need to hike at a reasonable pace to have a better chance to complete the goal. some start out too fast and end up injured resulting in time off the trail. not telling you how to hike just reminding you about the overall goal to complete the trail..hike on

map man
02-04-2013, 21:45
Mountain Squid starts a thread here every year that gives WB members of each year's thru-hiker class a chance to declare themselves. He compiles a list from that broken down by start date. In both 2011 and 2012 the number for each class was a little over 600. The ATC every year estimates how many attempting thru-hikers there are -- NOBOs, SOBOs and flip floppers. For the years 2011 and 2012 the average for all thru-hikers came to around 2500. Assuming the ATC's numbers are fairly accurate that means that each year recently around 25% of AT thru-hike attempters declare themselves here at WB.

The ATC's estimate for thru-hike starters did take a dramatic jump up from 2011 to 2012. For instance, they estimated that there were around 1700 NOBO starters in 2011 and 2500 NOBO starters in 2012. That seems like a big jump when you consider that the number of reported completions didn't increase much and the number of reported starts from Mountain Squid's database didn't budge much either. That leads me to believe that folks at the ATC thought that in the past they were underestimating thru-hike attempters and changed their methodology for the 2012 class. Here's the ATC web page with this info (the pertinent numbers are toward the bottom of the page):

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers

Here's the WB page with links for each hiker class that Mountain Squid maintains:

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?28-whiteblaze-thru-hikers

So, to answer the poster's original question -- around 75% of thru-hike attempters DON'T declare themselves on WB.

moytoy
02-04-2013, 21:57
I have heard that there are a few WB members that, after completing their thru, went on to have normal productive lives. :)

WingedMonkey
02-04-2013, 22:23
Mountain Squid starts a thread here every year that gives WB members of each year's thru-hiker class a chance to declare themselves.

Are there any statistics of how many that "declare" actually even leave Springer or Katahdin?

OzJacko
02-05-2013, 05:05
Are there any statistics of how many that "declare" actually even leave Springer or Katahdin?
Just a guess but using trailjournals as a reference I would say about 20% declaring a thruhike attempt more than 2 months before they start, never start.
One of the reasons I have been holding back the commencement of my own TJ and just 'goofing off" in the cafe instead.

I have "lurked" for a few years, more on TJ's than WB to be honest, and my gut feeling was about 75-80% in response to the OP's question which I'm pleased to see is supported by Map Man's observations.

Now that it is getting close I can fully see why so many don't actually start.
It is amazing the little pressures that build up in resistance to you going.
Employers, friends and family that said "good on you" 6 months ago now start to, wittingly or unwittingly, present obstacles or drop comments that give you doubts, at least to the level of their support if not to your own mind.
Life doesn't stop so many things can change the whole scenario, e.g. job promotions, demotions, family illnesses or deaths, pregnancies (lots of variation on how/who that can cause issues), disasters (I cannot imagine going if I was one of the Australians whose house was flooded or burnt this last fortnight).

So while many brashly post an intention to thruhike, not all who don't follow it through were just shooting off.

WB is a great resource but in my humble opinion, it is determination and the luck of how things fall for you that determines success.
Starting at Springer with the right gear can help, but people learn and everyone who finishes had the right gear for them - at least by Katahdin they did.

BirdBrain
02-05-2013, 09:00
i can tell you that if you google appalachian trail cyber cafe, we're #1 on the list.

It has taken me about 3000 posts to find a character flaw on you HB, but I finally found one: Pride....
Okay... okay... I would be proud too.

hikerboy57
02-05-2013, 10:01
It has taken me about 3000 posts to find a character flaw on you HB, but I finally found one: Pride....
Okay... okay... I would be proud too.
t aint me thats made it great. i just started it is all'
its just posting

BirdBrain
02-05-2013, 10:05
t aint me thats made it great. i just started it is all'
its just posting

Gonna' have to start a new poll:
What makes a real POHO?

Seatbelt
02-05-2013, 10:22
[QUOTE=OzJacko;1409909]Now that it is getting close I can fully see why so many don't actually start.
It is amazing the little pressures that build up in resistance to you going.
So while many brashly post an intention to thruhike, not all who don't follow it through were just shooting off.

QUOTE]

The same is true for section hikers....I have been a part of arranged section hikes with others for years only to have each of them "drop out" one by one the closer the start date comes and I wound up hiking solo. I don't even ask anymore--just go.

S'more
02-05-2013, 20:43
42. Take that MM.
Hey -- that's my answer!

S'more
02-05-2013, 20:49
Somebody needs to do a survey. Sit at the FS42 parking lot from March to May with a clip board, then again from Sept until Oct 15 at Abol bridge. Lets get some hard numbers :)

Another fun thing to do would be to set up game camaras at the start of the trail, then at each state line and finally at Baxter. That could provide some interesting data.

Hmmm. File this under idea for dissertation -- if I were to ever be stupid enough to do that. But actually, a great idea for someone!

S'more
02-05-2013, 20:54
I found WhiteBlaze and TrailJournals from a link on the ATC website years ago. I was one of the ones that lurked for a long time because it was going to be a long time before I was going to be able to hike. When it got within a couple of years and began to become a reality is when I started to interact and post. And, I'm glad I did. I've gotten some really good advice and suggestions and have met some really great people that I have already hiked with and some that I will be hiking with. I've met people on here that are going to help me resupply and with any luck spend some time with at Trail Days and elsewhere. I don't know if I'll succeed in completing my thru in one straight shot but I'm going at it like I will. I feel that being on and associating with the people on WhiteBlaze has done nothing but increase my chances.
Since being here on WB, I've realized that the reality is that I will be doing the AT in spits and spats, not even 'sections' depending on ones viewpoint, before attempting a thru. A thru is on by bucket list but for, spits and spats (aka long weekends) will have to suffice. Luckily, I live in a spot that makes that possible. That is the half south of Harpers Ferry.

SassyWindsor
02-05-2013, 21:20
A high percentage of hikers, long distance or not, are not familiar with WB or just don't care. During an outing I could care less about the WWW except to check email or weather forecasts. To announce on WB, or any public forum. any of my trip itinerary is NOT happening.

Chaco Taco
02-06-2013, 00:51
I'd be willing to bet there's as many lurkers on Whiteblaze that are thru-hiking that wish to remain anonymous, as Whiteblaze members that have announced their thru-hike.
This was the case when I hiked in 08. Alot of people are familiar with WB and have been here and have found useful information.

Another Kevin
02-06-2013, 09:06
In a typical year about 1500 people start as "thru-hikers", mostly in March and April. Its safe to assume that many don't sign in on the "class" thread or start a trailjournals.

I seem to recall hearing that something like 20-30% of (NOBO) thru-hikers don't declare Maine as their intention when they sign in at Springer. They either make up their minds on the trail or keep their intentions to themselves. I think that it might be sort of cool to do a "stealth" thru: "Where are you coming from?" (name of last town stop). "Where are you going?" (name of next planned town stop) "Do you do this a lot?" "Been out a few times this summer." The big disadvantage would be that thrus who declare their intentions get a lot of help and support that you'd miss out on.

fredmugs
02-06-2013, 10:52
I can see possibly not getting involved on here, but I cannot see not even having the knowledge of this place. I just did a google search on 'appalachian trail' and whiteblaze is the number 8 result. #4 for 'appalachian trail planning'. I guess some people don't mind taking off six months without proper planning.

If you don't come to WB you did not conduct "proper planning?" I'm sure lots of hikers found the thru hikers guide on their own without someone on here telling them to get it.

88BlueGT
02-07-2013, 11:12
I would think there are many who are not members on WB who hike/attempt thru hikes.