View Full Version : Where's the thru-hiker bubble right now?
pafarmboy
06-08-2013, 17:31
Just wondering......
Odd Man Out
06-08-2013, 17:41
Based on historic data, people should be around HF. Not sure about this year.
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?44
TABLE 3 -- Date Landmarks Were Reached
MEDIAN DAY ~~ MEAN DAY ~~~ LANDMARK
March 17............March 20...........Springer
March 25............March 28...........Georgia Border
April 1................April 5...............Fontana
April 28..............April 29..............Damascus
May 29..............May 28..............Waynesboro
June 9...............June 8...............Harpers Ferry
June 29.............June 27..............DWG
July 12..............July 10...............Kent
Aug. 5...............Aug. 2...............Glencliff
Aug. 15.............Aug. 12..............Gorham
Aug. 26.............Aug. 22..............Stratton
Sept. 9..............Sept. 4..............Katahdin!
johnnybgood
06-08-2013, 18:20
Lot's of hikers at Big Meadows Wayside last Saturday. So my guess is someone between SNP and Harper's Ferry.
Not much of a bubble this year due to weather and sickness. The are spread out even more than normal. I would guess that the bubble is in or approaching the SNP. I think that the drop out rate will be higher than ever this year.
Slo-go'en
06-08-2013, 20:32
Due to the weather, there were quite a few late starters this year. Every thing is running about 2 weeks behind normal. The tail end of the "bubble" is probably just getting into Virginia about now. A little over a week ago when I was in Damascus, there was a pretty big crowd there and still more coming in.
Southerner
06-09-2013, 13:26
I was at Troutville Trail Days yesterday, and the organizers said they had 50 through-hikers register. Later in the day, I stopped by Wilson Creek Shelter, and the place was as crowded as I have ever seen it, mostly with through-hikers. So I am guessing the center of the bubble is around Daleville now.
Met four fast thrus in the CT/MA borderlands yesterday. The front end of the bubble.
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 14:06
Met four fast thrus in the CT/MA borderlands yesterday. The front end of the bubble.
they are 3 states ahead of the bubble.bubbles around no va, getting close to harpers ferry
I met a Southbound section hiker on his last AT Section at the Garfeild Ridge trail in New Hampshire who said he's met two AT Northbound thrus already.
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 14:30
I met a Southbound section hiker on his last AT Section at the Garfeild Ridge trail in New Hampshire who said he's met two AT Northbound thrus already.
probably aquablazed the whole way.wait until they find out they have to go back and rehike it.
probably aquablazed the whole way.wait until they find out they have to go back and rehike it.
There was a few January starters besides Rifleman
The thrus I met yesterday, two of them at least, started early March. They had a helluva March, they said. Said they loved Grayson Highlands, not only b/c of the beauty and the ponies, but because it welcomed them, one and for all, into spring.
I hike in Vermont, i've read of at least 7 nobo thru hikers that have passed through VT, and 2 sobo's...
they are 3 states ahead of the bubble.bubbles around no va, getting close to harpers ferry
Depends on how you define bubble. I consider four thrus in 3 hours on the A.T. a pretty good count. The faster end of the mass of thrus is massing, for the most part, in Mass, so to speak.
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 15:09
Depends on how you define bubble. I consider four thrus in 3 hours on the A.T. a pretty good count. The faster end of the mass of thrus is massing, for the most part, in Mass, so to speak.
just check trail journals.the bulk of the people i hiked with that started mid march are still in virginia. thats the bubble.
darn attorneys love to play semantics
Deer Hunter
06-09-2013, 15:16
Not much of a bubble this year due to weather and sickness. They are spread out even more than normal. I would guess that the bubble is in or approaching the SNP. I think that the drop out rate will be higher than ever this year.
I believe you are right about this. In years past, I would see them eveywhere here (Buena Vista and Glasgow) for a couple weeks and then almost nothing.
just check trail journals.the bulk of the people i hiked with that started mid march are still in virginia. thats the bubble.
darn attorneys love to play semantics
Wouldn't the "Fast" Bubble if it existed not have time to keep up with a trail journal? Or are fast hikers also illiterate and therfore have little presence on the internet?
My understanding as part of the mix is that due to weather, norovirus etc many of the early starters have dropped back into the "pack" somewhat.
There is a significant bubble in the Shenandoah but I believe the biggest bubble is between Daleville and Waynesboro.
Slo-go'en
06-09-2013, 16:43
I saw what looked to be thru-hiker at the chinese buffet in Gorham, NH today but didn't have a chance to go over and find out his story.
One thing I noticed on my little hike this year was there was always a lot more hikers in town and at the hostels then on the trail.
da fungo
06-09-2013, 17:19
Saw two self-identified thru-hikers around two this afternoon, in t.NJ. between the Vernon suspension bridge and the Rt 94 parking lot:
Raider: slackpacking to meet his wife at Rt 94.
Mousetrap: taking a smoke break, looked beat.
just check trail journals.the bulk of the people i hiked with that started mid march are still in virginia. thats the bubble.
darn attorneys love to play semantics
Love you, too! :sun And I don't see a need to obsess over the bubble's precise parameters, though it's such good fun. Carry on if you please. ...
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 19:57
Love you, too! :sun And I don't see a need to obsess over the bubble's precise parameters, though it's such good fun. Carry on if you please. ...
hey dont stop me while im carrying on!!
darn attorneys.
oh alright :)
Wouldn't the "Fast" Bubble if it existed not have time to keep up with a trail journal? Or are fast hikers also illiterate and therfore have little presence on the internet?
Mmm, two of the four fast, bubbly hikers I met yesterday are keeping journals: http://ejhorrocks.wordpress.com/ and http://www.sidewaysgaze.com/.
Pedaling Fool
06-09-2013, 20:07
Saw two self-identified thru-hikers around two this afternoon, in t.NJ. between the Vernon suspension bridge and the Rt 94 parking lot:
Raider: slackpacking to meet his wife at Rt 94.
Mousetrap: taking a smoke break, looked beat.Looked beat :confused: :-? Hmmm, kind of curious how a thru-hiker could be looking rough in NJ in the afternoon.
hey dont stop me while im carrying on!!
darn attorneys.
oh alright :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X_2IdybTV0
da fungo
06-09-2013, 20:49
Just reporting what I saw.
Whack-a-mole
06-09-2013, 20:56
I did Fontana Dam to NOC last weekend. I was surprised at how many NB thru's that I talked to. There were a lot of kids that wanted to finish college and then put in a good hike before they get caught up in the real world. All of them were well aware of how late they were starting, and most commented that they might have to do a flip flop depending on how far and fast they went. One little girl I met was totally B.A. She is knocking down 20 miles per day. Traveling pretty light. My hat is off to her. I hope she makes it. Of all the kids I met, she had her act together the best. I know this post doesn't fit into the "bubble" category, but maybe these are those last little "bubbles" on the tail end of the big one.
Wouldn't the "Fast" Bubble if it existed not have time to keep up with a trail journal? Or are fast hikers also illiterate and therfore have little presence on the internet?
Mmm, two of the four fast, bubbly hikers I met yesterday are keeping journals: http://ejhorrocks.wordpress.com/ and http://www.sidewaysgaze.com/.
So 50% of fast hikers are illiterate? :)
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 21:06
So 50% of fast hikers are illiterate? :)
whats that last word?
So 50% of fast hikers are illiterate? :)
And four out of five dentists recommend Crest to their patients.
Now here's a toughie: what percentage of PoHo's and Thrus are innumerate? And who is there to do the calculation?
And four out of five dentists recommend Crest to their patients.
Now here's a toughie: what percentage of PoHo's and Thrus are innumerate? And who is there to do the calculation?
42% is the answer
hikerboy57
06-09-2013, 21:12
And four out of five dentists recommend Crest to their patients.
Now here's a toughie: what percentage of PoHo's and Thrus are innumerate? And who is there to do the calculation?
pohos, by nature cannot be innumerate.number games have become the norem in the cafe.
whats innumerate?
coach lou
06-09-2013, 23:42
The thrus I met yesterday, two of them at least, started early March. They had a helluva March, they said. Said they loved Grayson Highlands, not only b/c of the beauty and the ponies, but because it welcomed them, one and for all, into spring. It was not very spring like when we were up there!
hikernutcasey
06-10-2013, 10:24
For what it's worth I am following 4 different hikers this year through journals or blogs and they are in the following locations:
Acorn - just entered SNP
Chin Music - just north of Boiling Springs PA
Sparky - in SNP
Kaboose and Sassafrass - Harpers Ferry
hikerboy57
06-10-2013, 10:40
man , sassafras is making miles.13 yrs old.
man , sassafras is making miles.13 yrs old.
She'd be further if wasn't slowed down by her father.
That kid skips down the trail I think.:)
hikerboy57
06-10-2013, 14:00
this guys already in nh:http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=418933
Jack Tarlin
06-10-2013, 15:01
Original question was "Where's the thru-hiker bubble?" From what I've seen in the last week, it's between Glasgow and Duncannon, or to narrow it down a bit, say Waynesboro to Boiling Springs. Number of sign-ins in Harpers Ferry is slightly up from lasy year, but not by that much; general concensus is there are still a great many people heading their way, with 15 June to 10 July being the crazy time in HF. If I wanted to find a whole lotta people in the Class of 2013 right now, I'd check out the YMCA campsite or the Ming Garden in Waynesboro, my guess is you'll have plenty of company.
stillatit
06-10-2013, 16:01
For what it's worth, I day-hiked the 7.5 miles from Elk Pen to Seven Lakes Road near Tiorati Circle in S NY state yesterday and ran into 12 thrus, 3 lunching at Fingerboard Shelter and the rest on the trail.
:rolleyes:
hikernutcasey
06-10-2013, 16:05
this guys already in nh:http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=418933
I just skimmed through his journal and man is he getting it done! He retired from the military and he is hiking the trail to transition into civilian life. He must have been in super shape because he was doing 20+ days right out of the chute.
Joker4ink
06-18-2013, 22:47
I just skimmed through his journal and man is he getting it done! He retired from the military and he is hiking the trail to transition into civilian life. He must have been in super shape because he was doing 20+ days right out of the chute.
I met him the second week in March at the NOC while I was sectioning. He was doing 18+ miles or so at that point; he said he was a runner. He had such a positive attitude and is a very nice guy. Glad he's doing well!
stillatit
06-19-2013, 07:34
I chatted with Raider on Sunday 6/9 at the day pavilion along Sunrise Drive in NJ. His wife was meeting him later that day at the Deckertown Turnpike trailhead, just past Mashipacong Shelter. He takes frequent long breaks to counter his 25-30 mi./day. He took a week off to visit Washington, DC.
He's probably well into NY or Conn. by now. He was a great chap to talk to, indeed.
Alleghanian Orogeny
06-19-2013, 07:55
I chatted with Raider on Sunday 6/9 at the day pavilion along Sunrise Drive in NJ. His wife was meeting him later that day at the Deckertown Turnpike trailhead, just past Mashipacong Shelter. He takes frequent long breaks to counter his 25-30 mi./day. He took a week off to visit Washington, DC.
He's probably well into NY or Conn. by now. He was a great chap to talk to, indeed.
And I had a brief chat with Raider on Saturday, April 27, when I offered a group of hikers lunching at Trent's Grocery a ride back to the trailhead. Three took me up on it: Raider, Movie Star (who has since changed his trail name to Gonzo), and Rainbow Braid. Raider said he'd done 18 miles before lunch and wanted to do 11 more before calling it a day. It was clear he was military, as is one of my sons, by his incorporation of "yes, sir" and "no, sir" into even the briefest of conversations.
AO
Slo-go'en
06-19-2013, 11:13
Three took me up on it: Raider, Movie Star (who has since changed his trail name to Gonzo)
"Movie Star" tagged every shelter I saw down south in big letters with permanet marker :(
Alleghanian Orogeny
06-19-2013, 12:29
"Movie Star" tagged every shelter I saw down south in big letters with permanet marker :(
Yes, I'd noticed that post after having met that individual. Wonder if the resulting uproar is why he's "Gonzo" now?
AO
Been out on the trail twice in the past week and have run into about a dozen nobos each time here in DWG, PA/NJ border. Mott, Pumpkin Pie, Hiker Joe, Java Man, Rainbow Braid to mention a few.