PDA

View Full Version : 2013 may be the worst thru-hike season in a very long time.



moldy
11-19-2013, 09:41
A record number of thru-hikers started North from Springer this year. 2700. Early starters fared the worst. Winter would not go away. Some had ice and snow all the way to Virginia. Then the stomach virus hit. Then the heavy rains in New England caused one of the worst crops for mosquitoes in years. In normal years almost a third would have finished. This year it will be about 12%. Yellow blazers are inside the 12% and there was an abnormal amount of yellow blazing this year. My hat is off those early starters who made it. They should get 2 thru-hiker patches. Every year is a crapshoot of troubles on the trail from droughts to washouts, this could be a record year.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers

Nooga
11-19-2013, 10:06
and I groused about the lack of water in 2012......

Kookork
11-19-2013, 10:08
ChinMusic has the bragging right . He started early and strong and finished even stronger. The statistics shows that 2013 was a specially tough year to hike.

HikerMom58
11-19-2013, 10:33
It's amazing!!!! ^^^^ I hope the Class of 2014 has it much better!

atmilkman
11-19-2013, 10:40
I know of one still out there. Karma. As of Sunday 11/17 she was on day 242 with 41.2 miles to go.

Cro-Mag
11-19-2013, 10:59
I am not superstitious, but I questioned my start date of March 13, 2013 almost the entire 5 months figuring I jinxed myself haha

I am glad I hiked this year though, it made for some great stories.

WingedMonkey
11-19-2013, 11:09
According to the ATC all you have to is try.

WingedMonkey
11-19-2013, 11:10
According to the ATC all you have to is try.

All you have to do, is try.

imscotty
11-19-2013, 12:46
I really question the wisdom of the trend for earlier and earlier start dates. These Jan - March starts are fine as long as you know what you are getting into, but many do not. Patience Grasshopper!

max patch
11-19-2013, 12:56
No such thing as a "thru hiker" patch.

Perhaps you're thinking of a Man Patch.

rickb
11-19-2013, 17:31
I really question the wisdom of the trend for earlier and earlier start dates. These Jan - March starts are fine as long as you know what you are getting into, but many do not. Patience Grasshopper!

Is it really possible that 2700 people started a Northbound hike this year?

i know that is what the ATC website says but if true, why the spike? Did the southern service providers see a business bonanza?

If that number of people were spread out evenly over 90 days, you'd have an average of 30 people starting every day. And some days would have to be double or triple that or more, right?

I am thinking something might be off-- I hope so.

hikerboy57
11-19-2013, 19:35
you had start days from February to May.I started March 23rdand yes in the beginning I'd say there were upwards of 30 people at some of the sites, thinned out a bit after Neels gap.by the time I got to the Smokies I would say was around 20and when I hit damascus it dropped to between 10 and15. i think early on when you had 20 or so people staying at the shelters/sites, you also had 50+ in town, keeping out of the weather. from what i saw the number is believable

Tuckahoe
11-19-2013, 20:04
Just looking at the numbers what I see is a fairly normal number finishing, a fairly normal number reaching Harpers Ferry, but an unusually high number starting out north bound.

I would be interested to know why there was an increase of 1000 potential thru-hikers starting out over that of 2011, when in years past the increase has been 100 to 200 more hikers over previous years. Maybe my math is wrong but isnt that a 62% increase?

hikerboy57
11-19-2013, 20:07
what was the number for 2012. i remember that was a record year as well.

4shot
11-19-2013, 20:14
the very best year to thru hike is the first year that you can. Perhaps the low % of finishers this year may have been caused by the high % of starters.

Nuggz
11-19-2013, 20:41
Makes me very weary of starting next year, I assume there will be more than 2700.

moldy
11-19-2013, 21:14
2700 in 2013, 1700 in 2012, 14xx in 2011. Up a thousand in one year. Perhaps this was not a spike but the start of a ever increasing trend. 2013 also had a record number of hikers who signed up for a 2013 AT Trail Journal account, 510. It will be interesting see how many thru-hikers make there way up the trail next year. If the trail gets any more crowded they will have to make 2 lanes. Should we all buy REI stock now?

Tuckahoe
11-19-2013, 21:29
2700 in 2013, 1700 in 2012, 14xx in 2011. Up a thousand in one year. Perhaps this was not a spike but the start of a ever increasing trend. 2013 also had a record number of hikers who signed up for a 2013 AT Trail Journal account, 510. It will be interesting see how many thru-hikers make there way up the trail next year. If the trail gets any more crowded they will have to make 2 lanes. Should we all buy REI stock now?

How can this be a trend? Without some other data to support it, one must really question that 2700 number. All other numbers are nearly similar to previous years, along with similar growth, but suddenly there is an increase of 1000 attempted thru-hikers over that reported for 2011.

steve0423
11-19-2013, 21:29
I started Feb 17th this year... finished July 25! It was an absolutely brutal year. Snow a couple times a week up through the first week of April. 2+ feet in places in the smokies and 3-6 on Roan mtn. 30-40 days straight in the rain up north. In retrospect I'm very proud to have made it on such a tough year. But I was interested in starting early based in part off the ever increasing number of March first starters, as were several folks I met early on. Seems starting early to avoid the crowd has caused a negative feedback loop of sorts. I was experienced, prepared and knowledgeable about what I was getting myself into, many were not and dropped out or otherwise paid dearly. No crowd was awesome for us socially challenged types and I'd do it all over again. But better weather sure would have been nice!

imscotty
11-19-2013, 21:30
Wait until the Bill Bryson "A Walk in the Woods" movie comes out. Every Yahoo and his brother will be queuing up at Springer Mountain.

rickb
11-19-2013, 21:32
I am thinking the data was collected differently, or there was a typo.

A 60% year to year increase would have been felt and remarked upon, rather than pass without much comment.

imscotty
11-19-2013, 21:38
From what I recall of Mt. Squid and Map Man's number crunching, later in April would be a better time to start if you want to avoid the thru-hiker crowds than earlier in March. Start in Mid-April and you will probably experience better weather and will still have 6 months to finish.

rickb
11-19-2013, 21:42
The number of AT Journals on trailjournals.com increased from 423 in 2012 to 511 this year-- an increase of about 21%.

No way the number of hikers increased 60% this past year.

Alligator
11-19-2013, 21:43
Moldy you are not looking at the numbers correctly on the page. There are no 2012 numbers listed on the page. I am not sure if they have simply not updated for 2012 or perhaps they lag those numbers when they compare within years on the table while waiting for completion reports. Also, the 2013 completions are not all reported. I don't know how preliminary they are but they will continue to get completion reports.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers

Carbo
11-19-2013, 21:56
I think the large number of baby boomers reaching retirement age will have something to do with an increase in the starters at Springer.

ChinMusic
11-19-2013, 22:04
I am glad I hiked this year though, it made for some great stories.

Me too. The sucky times seem so fulfilling in some twisted way.


ChinMusic has the bragging right . He started early and strong and finished even stronger. The statistics shows that 2013 was a specially tough year to hike.

I was too stubborn to quit. Curmudgeons rule.........

Since I had never thruhiked before it was just another year, to me. I was thinking, "I don't recall all this stuff in all the Trail Journals I have read. Oh well."

The OP left out "dodging Cadillacs"

Del Q
11-19-2013, 22:07
Agreed, the movie will EXPLODE AT hikers.

Robin2013AT
11-20-2013, 08:34
I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?

hikerboy57
11-20-2013, 08:35
I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?
yes you are.even norovirus couldnt keep up with you.

moldy
11-20-2013, 08:36
The ATC web page is clear about the number of hikers starting North. I wonder if they have a new counting method. Perhaps they have added the names of people who skipped the Approach Trail by including the additional names from the log book kept at the top of Springer. That would take extra effort and introduce the possibility of bogus data. If the web page data were wrong they would have taken it down by now. And where is 2012's numbers?

hikerboy57
11-20-2013, 08:43
2377 should have registered as section hikers.
that would have produced a 100% success rate

Robin2013AT
11-20-2013, 08:43
where did 12% come from? Based on the ATC #s my math shows it lower...

jj2044
11-20-2013, 09:42
I think its possible for the increase. I think people are forgetting how nice the "normal" at hiking season was in 2012, it was beautiful I only remember getting snowed on 1 time and it didn't even stick. I think seeing the success rate and wonderful weather we had in 2012, I think a lot of people threw in for 2013 because of 2012, I also think a lot of young people just out of high school or college unable to find jobs said screw it (maybe not the smartest thing) im going hiking. the data it says 1700 started in 2011.... so I figure 2000 +/-100 in 2012. once the Bill Bryson move comes out I wouldn't be surprised to see 4000 a year start. I liked the book, thought it was funny, but I kind of hope the move sucks, the more popular the more people are going to be out there. oh and started March 10th and there was EASY 30 people at hawk shelter, but it thinned out fairly quick.

Deacon
11-20-2013, 09:51
Just looking at the numbers what I see is a fairly normal number finishing, a fairly normal number reaching Harpers Ferry, but an unusually high number starting out north bound.

I would be interested to know why there was an increase of 1000 potential thru-hikers starting out over that of 2011, when in years past the increase has been 100 to 200 more hikers over previous years. Maybe my math is wrong but isnt that a 62% increase?

Part of the reason for the increased numbers this year is there was a large influx of hikers from Europe, especially Germany. While on the AT portion of the Long Trail this summer, when the bubble was passing thru, I would estimate that a quarter of the NOBO hikers I met were from Germany.

From what the Germans tell me, there was a video presented on there National television about the AT. That enticed many to do the trail.

sadlowskiadam
11-20-2013, 10:21
I started this year on April 28 and had no problems with overcrowding, snow, or finishing on time in Maine. The weather on the trail this season was particularly wet (each year is different and you cannot control it). If you are concerned about bad weather and crowded trails, then I suggest that you start in late April or early May. There will still be plenty of thru hikers starting at this time and you will eventually catch up to the bubble anyway.

fredmugs
11-20-2013, 10:50
Wait until the Bill Bryson "A Walk in the Woods" movie comes out. Every Yahoo and his brother will be queuing up at Springer Mountain.

I agree. It's going to be ugly. Mountain Crossings is going to make a fortune.

Paul the Brit
11-20-2013, 10:53
I would be interested to see the start numbers and completion rates based on age brackets (20's, 30's, 40's etc.). I would guess the higher numbers starting are in the younger age ranges but would be interesting to see this as a relationship to completion rates.

HikerMom58
11-20-2013, 11:03
I would love to know if the female completion percentage is higher than the males.

Paul the Brit
11-20-2013, 11:09
I see a potential research study for someone ;)

map man
11-20-2013, 11:25
Moldy you are not looking at the numbers correctly on the page. There are no 2012 numbers listed on the page. I am not sure if they have simply not updated for 2012 or perhaps they lag those numbers when they compare within years on the table while waiting for completion reports. Also, the 2013 completions are not all reported. I don't know how preliminary they are but they will continue to get completion reports.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers

I think Alligator has this right. And I don't know why the stats for 2012 have gone away but I remember the NOBO start numbers for that year were 2500, and that was a big jump from the 1700 estimated starters in 2011. I don't believe there has been a real life big jump like that. If you look at the database that Mouintain Squid maintains here at WB for members reporting thru-hike attempts, the numbers haven't changed that much in recent years -- it's been between 550 and 650 for each class from 2010 to 2013. Also, the number of journalers at TJ and Postholer has not seen that dramatic jump.

I think instead that it's likely the ATC came to the conclusion, for some reason, that starters in the past had been undercounted and starting in 2012 they changed their methodologies for estimating starters (and that in turn means if they really were underestimating in the past that projections of around 30% completion rates in those years previous to 2012 would be an overestimate).

Having said that, it is undoubtedly true that the wet weather in 2013 made a thru-hike more difficult than in an average year. But we've seen awful weather years in the past (2003 comes to mind) and that cut down on completers, but not drastically. If this year is like other years hikers will report completions to ATC in trickles that will continue into early 2014, and then it will be easier to judge.

Malto
11-20-2013, 11:39
I would be interested to see the start numbers and completion rates based on age brackets (20's, 30's, 40's etc.). I would guess the higher numbers starting are in the younger age ranges but would be interesting to see this as a relationship to completion rates.

i suspect that 30-50 would have the highest finish rate. Too many of the youngsters run out of money or have no clue what they are getting into. The same will happen to the older folks but I would hope it is less likely. I would also guess that the rate drops with age above 50 due to injuries. Mapman, what say you?

map man
11-20-2013, 12:07
i suspect that 30-50 would have the highest finish rate. Too many of the youngsters run out of money or have no clue what they are getting into. The same will happen to the older folks but I would hope it is less likely. I would also guess that the rate drops with age above 50 due to injuries. Mapman, what say you?

I just don't know. Looking at trail journals, like I've done for other purposes, just won't yield good objective data whether it's trying to figure out overall completion rates or completion rates by age group because so many people discontinue journaling somewhere along the trail with no explanation for why -- so it's unknown whether the hike stopped or the person just got tired of on-line journaling.

This stuff does interest me, though, as you know. Maybe when I retire in a few years I could stand at Springer all day long from February through May and persuade people to fill out surveys and then do the same thing at Katahdin from late June through October:rolleyes:. I wonder if I could find some grant money to pay me to do that? It would probably be a severe test for my already high tolerance for statistics tedium;).

Que Sera
11-20-2013, 12:12
If anything, I think the completion rate might be higher this year than previous years, and that the number posted on the ATC website might be way off (I know it says they're still awaiting more completion reports).

One thru-hiker who's trail journal I followed had her summitting Katahdin on October 6th and she says she was hiker #677 for that year. She started at Springer as #411.

Also, not that this necessarily means anything, but all of the thru-hikers whose blogs and journals I followed somewhat regularly (about 10...so a small sample) ended up completing their thru-hikes. Something I've wondered for a while is if there's a correlation between those who keep an online journal and the rate of those who complete their hikes. I would imagine that accountability might play some role in keeping people pushing forward.

map man
11-20-2013, 12:29
One thru-hiker who's trail journal I followed had her summitting Katahdin on October 6th and she says she was hiker #677 for that year. She started at Springer as #411.

People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

danil411
11-20-2013, 12:44
People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

The form they fill out includes starting point, so Baxter could separate categories. Having said that I was surprised to be hiker #772 on my summit day...especially since rumor has it that the park does keep separate section, nobo, sobo figures. For reference I was #880 at ATC in Harper's Ferry.

Haven't submitted my paperwork yet.

Dimples

Que Sera
11-20-2013, 13:10
People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

Ah okay. I did not know that

Robin2013AT
11-20-2013, 13:30
Has anybody ever checked with the ATC for how they gather their numbers?

max patch
11-20-2013, 13:34
NO ONE KNOWS how many hikers start each year. Its an educated guess. There is no requirement to "sign in". All thrus do not sign in anywhere. And some section hikers sign in. I don't believe the 2,700 reported number, but my guess is no more valid than anyone elses.

For what its worth (not much):

At 3/31 AFSP reported 789 thruhikers, which was 144 or 22% over 3/31/12.

At 4/3 Mountain Crossings reported 612 thruhikers.

At 4/10 Mountain Crossings reported "over 700" thruhikers but stated that many had not signed in. They estimated the true number as over 1,000.

Coffee
11-20-2013, 13:47
As a potential future southbound AT thru hiker, I'm very intrigued by the low numbers attempting the hike in that direction. To me it offers a better experience in terms of at least some solitude on the trail and I think that the weather would be more enjoyable overall with hiking in New England during the hottest months of summer, Virginia during leaf season, and late fall in the Smokies and to the finish. July 1 to November 15 or thereabouts.

CarlZ993
11-20-2013, 14:15
I was surprised about the small NoBo completion rate (around 12.7%, if my math is right; 2700 start, 343 finish). That number will change as more people submit their paperwork. From my personal perspective, the weather did suck & the hiker plague hit a bunch of people. Many of the people I hiked with in the beginning, however, did in fact finish. One guy had an injury that knocked him off the trail for 43 days. He returned & finished (way to go, Trucker!).

Of course, I'm sure that some finishers don't even bother to file the completion paperwork. I know of one Austin hiker (trail name 'Austin') who completed the AT last year & she isn't listed on the ATC database.

Don's Brother
11-20-2013, 20:03
I signed in at Amicalola as number 590 on March 22. Started from Springer on March 23. Arrived in Harper's Ferry on June 4 as number 318. Summited Katahdin on Sept. 2 as number 277 according to the Ranger Station. There were several days when I saw few other thru-hikers in parts of VA, MD, and PA. A couple of days I saw none. After the Smokies the numbers seemed to thin out considerably. I was fortunate to hike with a number of other thru-hikers, (some for only a day; others for weeks) who were determined to finish and did. In New Hampshire and Maine the 2013 thru-hikers I was around were a tough bunch. I don't know what the statistics really say. I'm just glad that I stayed healthy, reasonably injury free, and had the good fortune to walk every mile from Springer to Katahdin.

Paul the Brit
11-20-2013, 20:31
Would the GSMNP have the number of those filling in permits as thru-hikers?

hikerboy57
11-20-2013, 20:36
Would the GSMNP have the number of those filling in permits as thru-hikers?
gsmnp's definition of " thru hiker" is one who starts and finishes at least 50 miles before and after the smokies.

evyck da fleet
11-20-2013, 23:51
In 2012 I was the 941st hiker to leave Amicalola Falls on 4/19 and I believe the number of attempts was around 2,500 per the ATC site when the 2012 data was listed. I also think almost 700 hikers 'finished' that year NB. Seeing that about the same number of hikers reached HF in '13 as '12 I would expect the final number of finishers to be similar. If the class of '13 made it through what they had to early in the year I wouldn't expect a larger dropout rate after HF.

Cro-Mag
11-21-2013, 10:58
I signed in at Amicalola as number 590 on March 22. Started from Springer on March 23. Arrived in Harper's Ferry on June 4 as number 318. Summited Katahdin on Sept. 2 as number 277 according to the Ranger Station. There were several days when I saw few other thru-hikers in parts of VA, MD, and PA. A couple of days I saw none. After the Smokies the numbers seemed to thin out considerably. I was fortunate to hike with a number of other thru-hikers, (some for only a day; others for weeks) who were determined to finish and did. In New Hampshire and Maine the 2013 thru-hikers I was around were a tough bunch. I don't know what the statistics really say. I'm just glad that I stayed healthy, reasonably injury free, and had the good fortune to walk every mile from Springer to Katahdin.
Hey Don's Brother!! I hope you're doing well. Congrats on finishing!

-Salad Days

fins1838
11-21-2013, 14:59
Agreed, the movie will EXPLODE AT hikers.A
Agree also, but just for a year, maybe 2. Then it'll fade.

Tuckahoe
11-21-2013, 15:41
A
Agree also, but just for a year, maybe 2. Then it'll fade.

This!

Much like the effect Ken Burns, Gettysburg, Saving Private Ryan or Band of Brothers had on Civil War or WW2 reenacting. Short term jumps in participants that quickly get disinterested and fade away. But then again, while the book was popular, the portrayal of folks and life on the trail may cause those not previously acquainted with the trail to not take an interest.

Nooga
11-21-2013, 16:10
Wait until the Bill Bryson "A Walk in the Woods" movie comes out. Every Yahoo and his brother will be queuing up at Springer Mountain.

I agree. I think the book had a huge influence on the number of hikers and the movie will probably have an even greater impact. Just look at the number of German hikers resulting from the documentary that aired a few years ago.

ChinMusic
11-21-2013, 16:26
I agree. I think the book had a huge influence on the number of hikers and the movie will probably have an even greater impact. Just look at the number of German hikers resulting from the documentary that aired a few years ago.

The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

imscotty
11-21-2013, 17:27
The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

The movie based on Cheryl Strayed's book 'Wild' is in production right now. If that movie entices flocks of promiscuous women to hike the PCT, I just may have to rethink which trail I want to hike first :)

Stink Bug
11-21-2013, 17:48
The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

Talking with Lost and Rolling R, at the Peter's Mountain Shelter, they said that a lot of Germans had also quit the trail as it was too hard and nothing like the documentary they had seen!

jcheil
11-21-2013, 17:54
Is it really possible that 2700 people started a Northbound hike this year?

i know that is what the ATC website says but if true, why the spike? Did the southern service providers see a business bonanza?

If that number of people were spread out evenly over 90 days, you'd have an average of 30 people starting every day. And some days would have to be double or triple that or more, right?

I am thinking something might be off-- I hope so.

I was #939 when I checked in on April 10th

Stink Bug
11-21-2013, 17:58
I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?

Violet, I was under the same impression. Of the massive bubble I left Springer with and hiked with, only 2 dropped off the trail. Like you, I assumed this year would be a bonanza year for NOBO finishers.

Oh and yes, you are badass - totally!

Grampie
11-22-2013, 11:11
I was amazed at the number of AT hikers that I met during my thru that said they were "thru-hikers" but only were planing to spend a month or two on the trail. When folks asked me if I was thru-hiking I would reply; "I don't know. I'm just going for as long as I can."
Many AT hikers claim to be thru_hikers but have no intention of staying out for the long haul.

ALLEGHENY
11-22-2013, 13:04
I never was given a number on Springer Mt. 02/29/2012 and I never asked for one. Going through the GSMNP I forgot to turn in the permit. At the ATC Office in Harpers Ferry WV I got my photo and given a number 250 something 06/01/2012. After the 176 days from Springer, I night hiked into Baxter making it to the Ranger station about 2am (No one home to give me a stinking number) I hung my hammock for a few hours and made it to the summit before noon 08/23/2012. I know I "thru hiked" touching every white blaze. I did it for me and nobody else. I'm sorry if my hike screwed up your numbers. P-Squared

Stink Bug
11-22-2013, 14:28
I was amazed at the number of AT hikers that I met during my thru that said they were "thru-hikers" but only were planing to spend a month or two on the trail. When folks asked me if I was thru-hiking I would reply; "I don't know. I'm just going for as long as I can."
Many AT hikers claim to be thru_hikers but have no intention of staying out for the long haul.

No matter where I was along the trail, and even when I arrived at Abol Bridge, whenever I was asked if I was a thru hiker, I would reply, "Hoping to be!"

ALLEGHENY
11-22-2013, 14:44
No matter where I was along the trail, and even when I arrived at Abol Bridge, whenever I was asked if I was a thru hiker, I would reply, "Hoping to be!"

I always replied, no I'm not done hiking when asked if I was through hiking.

1234
11-22-2013, 23:44
I took my daughter to springer and she started Mar 23, she signed the register at springer, not amacola, I hiked with her to neels gap, it was cold we went in to warm up and no one said anything about signing in. She got to harpers ferry at 8 they were closed, I met her at Katadhin and I hiked up the hunt trail with her, we signed the register on the post on the board number 2 and 3 for the day. So she went the whole way and never got a number anywhere. So I wonder how she is counted or not counted. She sent in the paperwork. Not much accuracy to the current system. On the 23 I would say an easy 25 started, 10 stayed at the springer mt shelter of those 10 we know of 2 that went all the way and 2 more made it at least to the whites, then we lost track. I have started at springer 6 times and this was by far the most busy I have seen. I will say there are big groups and then nothing, sort of like waves of hikers that move up the trail. And I agree with all of you after 2 hiking movies hit the big screen I have no doubt 10,000 will start the next year. I also think that less than 10% will complete the trail if 10k start. Reason being the trail is not la la land like the TV make everything out to be.

Son Driven
11-23-2013, 01:21
At 56 I was clueless, of what I was getting into. Suffered hypothermia and minor frost bite. Several episodes of poison ivy. 3/7/13 Springer, made it 1,177 to Swatara Gap. On 7/4/13 doctor ordered me off trail. Took train, bus, and private shuttle to Baxter park. Katahdin summit on 7/7/13. Made it back to Swatara gap on 10/7/13. Seven months to the day from when I started. Best seven months of my life, and can hardly wait to do it again. The hardest part of the trail is PA, the poison plants rocks suck.

4shot
11-24-2013, 14:18
And I agree with all of you after 2 hiking movies hit the big screen I have no doubt 10,000 will start the next year. I also think that less than 10% will complete the trail if 10k start. Reason being the trail is not la la land like the TV make everything out to be.
2 thoughts: 1)if I made gear for a living, whether I was a big corporation or a 1-man shop, I would be looking forward to the release of these 2 movies. I think someone else said it above, Mountain Crossings will also benefit greatly. 2) there is a going to be a surplus of good, slightly used gear the spring after the movies are released. A glut of inventory will drive prices of the used gear well below normal levels.

Lady Grey
11-24-2013, 15:56
Son Driven - so glad to see you finished!!

I think the stats are difficult to manage. I started at Springer on March 8 and signed the log, but I was never assigned any kind of number. When I reached Harper's Ferry on May 21 I was number 155. I "jumped" MA and VT, two states I'd hiked already, picked the trail up again at the VT/NH border, and summited Katahdin on July 28. I told the ranger that I'd jumped 242 miles of the trail that I'd already completed, but he still assigned me a number, saying I was the 66th to report in.

I think every year must be tough on the AT. If it isn't one thing, I'm sure it's another. Yes, we had snow in the Smokies, the norovirus around Erwin, TN, and rain through the Whites, but all of this "stuff" sure makes for great stories! I wouldn't have traded my relatively early start for a later start because I loved walking the trail down south with the leaves off the trees. The views on the clear days were spectacular!

Lady Grey (www.trailjournals.com/LadyGrey)

fishfeet
11-24-2013, 17:50
Youre not a thru-hiker until you have THRU-HIKED. You wouldnt call yourself a tri-athlete because you were out for a bike ride.
I was #800 i believe from Amicalola on April 2nd.
At HF i was #844. Late June.
At Katahdin i was #444. Sept 21.

At Hawk Mountain shelter i recall 60-70 people in the immediate area camping that night. Yeah, there was alot of people. Then came a Horrific freezing rain storm the next day that i almost died in.....there were ALOT LESS hikers a day or two later.

Malto
11-24-2013, 19:14
At Hawk Mountain shelter i recall 60-70 people in the immediate area camping that night. Yeah, there was alot of people. Then came a Horrific freezing rain storm the next day that i almost died in.....there were ALOT LESS hikers a day or two later.

just curious what makes you think you almost died? Challenged, uncomfortable maybe, but almost dying???

hikerboy57
11-24-2013, 20:10
just curious what makes you think you almost died? Challenged, uncomfortable maybe, but almost dying???i was in that ice storm, and trees and branches were crashing down pretty much everywhere. i remember laughing thinking "i could die out here!" it was a little hairy,but i survived. i attribute it to my wearing a lucky survival bracelet.and heck, i would have died happy anyway..i dont think anyone got hurt during the storm though it did chase a lot of people off the trail.

Pressure D
11-24-2013, 21:13
I started on April 8th, had a great hike and summited on Oct 9th. I have not applied to the ATC for my 2000 miler certificate yet. I bet many finishers are just like me.

Zmaidment
11-25-2013, 22:11
Got a snowplow patch from my man fresh grounds

takethisbread
11-29-2013, 05:49
I think most folks don't check in at amicoala falls. I think all check in at HF. that explains that discrepency . I was friends with a few hikers this year, and they all left the trail . injuries, and miserable weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)

prain4u
12-15-2013, 02:00
Reason for the high numbers? Bad economy for several years. High unemployment rates (and the ability to get unemployment benefits for a year or more). College grads who can't get good jobs or any job at all (and parents willing to support them). People retiring early when their job suddenly came to an end (or when their jobs became unbearable). The WWII generation dying off and leaving modest inheritances to their kids and grandkids.

For many decades, countless people have dreamed of hiking the AT. Many of them never find a way of getting around to it.

If these same persons are unemployed, have very few job prospects, and have at least a few thousand dollars at their disposal--the chances are increased that they might start pursuing their dreams and hike the AT.