View Full Version : How many people on the trail
hikerjohnd
08-23-2005, 21:40
A professor asked me an interesting question today - I didn't have a solid answer, but I have my own guess. I thought I'd throw it out to you all for opinions -
At the peak of hiking season (whenever you believe that is) how many people are on the trail over a 24 hour period? This question is targeted at hikers of all kinds (thru, day, people who stop to see what it looks like)
I was thinking closer to 8,786, give or take
gsingjane
08-24-2005, 08:47
Thanks for letting me answer an interesting question! In guidebooks, many times you will hear the authors warn day hikers to keep off the AT in Connecticut, using words like "crowded," "congested," "over-used" and the like. Unfortunately, however, if you want to do overnight hiking/backpacking, there is no other place in CT to do it. We have a great system of blue-blazed trails, but none of them permit camping. (I know people who have done it, but with my kids and all, I don't think it's a good idea.)
So, we headed out to the congested AT on three different trips this summer, one in early June, one in early July, and one in early August. There were days when we saw absolutely nobody! Over the Fourth of July weekend, when I would have thought it would be mobbed, my daughter and I saw 4 people all day long one day!
A few times we ran into groups, the Wilderness School once and a school group once, so I guess it increases the overall average. And one night at Pine Swamp it did seem like there were maybe 8-10 thru-hikers at the shelter. The next night, at Limestone Springs, we were all alone, and this was true at most shelters and campsites we stayed at... at most one or two other hikers.
But counting everybody, day hikers, regular hikers, groups, etc., I would say that the average number of hikers we encountered, per day, was 10-15. So much for crowded!
Jane in CT
The Solemates
08-24-2005, 09:27
Thanks for letting me answer an interesting question! In guidebooks, many times you will hear the authors warn day hikers to keep off the AT in Connecticut, using words like "crowded," "congested," "over-used" and the like. Unfortunately, however, if you want to do overnight hiking/backpacking, there is no other place in CT to do it. We have a great system of blue-blazed trails, but none of them permit camping. (I know people who have done it, but with my kids and all, I don't think it's a good idea.)
So, we headed out to the congested AT on three different trips this summer, one in early June, one in early July, and one in early August. There were days when we saw absolutely nobody! Over the Fourth of July weekend, when I would have thought it would be mobbed, my daughter and I saw 4 people all day long one day!
A few times we ran into groups, the Wilderness School once and a school group once, so I guess it increases the overall average. And one night at Pine Swamp it did seem like there were maybe 8-10 thru-hikers at the shelter. The next night, at Limestone Springs, we were all alone, and this was true at most shelters and campsites we stayed at... at most one or two other hikers.
But counting everybody, day hikers, regular hikers, groups, etc., I would say that the average number of hikers we encountered, per day, was 10-15. So much for crowded!
Jane in CT
it all depends on where you go. ..and he was talking about the whole trail.
my guess is on a sunny saturday in the summer, there may be 2500 people, or about 1 per mile, on the AT from GA to ME.
The answer is 2000, plus or minus a few to account for people with multiple personalities.
The ATC says that the Trail gets between 3 - 4 million visitors a year.
That's about 10,000 a day, average.
On a summer day, I's think you'd have many times the 365 day average.
On a holliday weekend, I'd think you'd have many times the summer day average.
Then the distribution for weekend summer days would own spike.
The answer is 122,001.
Lone Wolf
08-24-2005, 10:13
NOBODY really knows. Dumb question from a professor.
hikerjohnd
08-24-2005, 10:18
The ATC says that the Trail gets between 3 - 4 million visitors a year.
That's about 10,000 a day, average.
On a summer day, I's think you's have many times the 365 day average.
On a holliday weekend, I'd think you'd have many times the summer day average.
Then the distribution for weekend summer days would own spike.
The answer is 82,001.
This is more in tune with my theory - at peak season, on a weekend day, my guess was about 100,000. Probably a bit high, but since there is no official count, I used the AT estimate (4 million) and figured from there.
hikerjohnd
08-24-2005, 10:21
NOBODY really knows. Dumb question from a professor.
Not really - she was trying to grasp the concept of the hiking community (thru/section) as an independent subculture. As I discussed interactions between thrus and weekenders, she didn't understand how many people were actually out there at a given time. I gave her a guess, but was curious about what others would guess.
Rain Man
08-24-2005, 18:28
... how many people are on the trail over a 24 hour period?...
I'll add that it depends on which 24 hours, in my opinion. Are we talking noon-till-noon? Sunrise-to-sunrise? Sunset-to-sunset.
I've met as many as 86 people in one "day" over 15 miles. That is, sunrise to sunset of the same day. And not near some population center, for whatever that's worth.
Anyway, that would equal 12,470 over the whole trail, over about 12 hours.
A very scientific survey for your professor! LOL
Rain:sunMan
.
Daddy Longlegs
08-24-2005, 20:26
At every trail head I think that there should be a place that you swipe a card so that the ATC could keep tab. :D
MisterSweetie
08-25-2005, 08:06
......42......
The Old Fhart
08-25-2005, 10:19
......42......Actually that's the answer to life, the universe, and everything.
The ATC says that the Trail gets between 3 - 4 million visitors a year.
That's about 10,000 a day, average.
On a summer day, I's think you'd have many times the 365 day average.
On a holliday weekend, I'd think you'd have many times the summer day average.
Then the distribution for weekend summer days would own spike.
The answer is 122,001.
122,001 people over 2,174 miles = 56 people per mile. :-? Never feels that crowded to me and I day hike on the AT in CT quite a bit.
122,001 people over 2,174 miles = 56 people per mile. :-? Never feels that crowded to me and I day hike on the AT in CT quite a bit.
Yes, but what you have not done is sat in one place and counted people going by. Assuming 56 people go by in an 8 hour span, then that's only 7 people per hour, or one person every 9 minutes or so. And, if you are hiking, you see only a very few of the hikers going the same direction as you.
Location, location, location. Some popular places get several hundred hikers on a good weekend day. Other locations get very few.
Now I am confused.
Wouldn't the the fact that the people passing by are probably walking around 2MPH alter the equation, Peaks?
I got to say, Bimmer has got me rethinking my guess.
Rick
The Solemates
08-25-2005, 16:43
Yes, but what you have not done is sat in one place and counted people going by. Assuming 56 people go by in an 8 hour span, then that's only 7 people per hour, or one person every 9 minutes or so. And, if you are hiking, you see only a very few of the hikers going the same direction as you.
Location, location, location. Some popular places get several hundred hikers on a good weekend day. Other locations get very few.
I think we've all done this many times. I know I have sat for an hour or two for a long lunch, and there is never 1 person every 9 minutes that walks by, no matter what day of the year it is. I think the estimate is exponentially too high.
How about this:
If you figure that there are 500 thu hikers on the AT on a busy summer day (a reasonable assumption?), and that there must be at least 200 day hikers and dog walkers and weekenders for every thru hiker, then....
100,000 total ===> 50 per mile avg.
D'Artagnan
08-26-2005, 09:40
Whatever the number is, if there's that one person (I think we've all run into them before) who insists on talking their head off while I'm just trying to find peace and solace in the great outdoors or who thinks they know more about why my gear is wrong for me than I know it's right for me, well, that's one too many. I don't want to come across as anti-social, it's just that there are times when quiet is appreciated more than banal conversation. And nobody appreciates a know-it-all when it comes to their gear choices.:eek:
How about this:
If you figure that there are 500 thu hikers on the AT on a busy summer day (a reasonable assumption?), and that there must be at least 200 day hikers and dog walkers and weekenders for every thru hiker, then....
100,000 total ===> 50 per mile avg.
Still sounds high. When considering 50 per mile average, we should also consider that many miles are not readily accessible to day hikers - 100 mile wilderness and wide stretches in many other areas. So the 50 average could mean 4-5 or more times that in other areas. Does the number still sound reasonable?
I have always thought the 3-4 million visitor estimate as high, but without knowing how that number was derived it is really difficult to comment. I suspect the numbers are generous estimates to help justify continued public funding of AT projects. At any rate, what really matters is not how many, but how they behave.
MisterSweetie
08-26-2005, 17:33
Actually that's the answer to life, the universe, and everything. Exactly. ;)
greymane
08-29-2005, 15:51
I think you would find, if you go to easily accessed points and stay within 1 mile of that access on a weekend, you would be surprised how many people you see. The numbers get exponentially smaller as you get away from the access area. But, in certain areas, on weekends and holidays....huge traffic.
SnakebiteSurvivor
08-30-2005, 05:43
The count of people on the trail gets skewed by a bunch of places that get a lot of foot traffic from people who aren't really "AT hikers". For example (trivia question).... what's the busiest spot on the AT, in terms of number of people walking on it in a 24-hour period?
Hands down, it's the block adjacent to the Dartmouth campus in Hanover. I'm sure this gets thousands of people walking on it on any given day (I hiked this section on a weekday summer afternoon and the streets were jammed... no doubt on a busy football weekend it's wall-to-wall people). If you add to this the crowds of tourists on the streets of Harpers Ferry, and the people who visit the top of Mt. Washington (of course, not all of these actually touch the AT treadway, but a lot do), plus the folks walking down the main streets of Damascus and Hot Springs, you probably end up with more people in these few blocks than in the whole rest of the trail put together!
The count of people on the trail gets skewed by a bunch of places that get a lot of foot traffic from people who aren't really "AT hikers". For example (trivia question).... what's the busiest spot on the AT, in terms of number of people walking on it in a 24-hour period?
Hands down, it's the block adjacent to the Dartmouth campus in Hanover. I'm sure this gets thousands of people walking on it on any given day (I hiked this section on a weekday summer afternoon and the streets were jammed... no doubt on a busy football weekend it's wall-to-wall people). If you add to this the crowds of tourists on the streets of Harpers Ferry, and the people who visit the top of Mt. Washington (of course, not all of these actually touch the AT treadway, but a lot do), plus the folks walking down the main streets of Damascus and Hot Springs, you probably end up with more people in these few blocks than in the whole rest of the trail put together!
If the estimates include that kind of traffic, then the estimates are indeed silly and pointless.