The big snow year, what you should do, what I'm doing

olgav100

Nice link.

But...where HLMG talks about the CA snowpacks in the 3 sections of north, middle and south it gives a bit of a understated view.

For instance the high areas in between Kennedy Meadows and the Lone Pine intersection at Trail Pass were absolutely BURIED with snow. From the Postholer site which has better snow data than was used by HLMG the new record Apr 1 snow pack there was about 50% higher than the old record and is about TRIPLE the normal Apr 1 amount (some 5 1/2 ft of water is sitting there in the form of snow. North of there there are other specific locations where there is 70 inches of water equivalent, 80, 85, 90 and even 100 inches of water sitting there in the form of snow and ice. Postholer had the PCT snow average right at 200% on Apr 1 - which shows the difference in using the snow data right at the trail as opposed to what CA reports - but that masks the extreme locations a bit also.

While averages are helpful of course, having data on specific locations and the potential at them for extreme conditions is also very useful.

We are also not done with the snow season. For instance the central Sierra is forecast to have heavy snow Fri and Sat.

http://www.postholer.com/snow/Pacific-Crest-Trail/1

http://www.postholer.com/postholer/c...rent_large.png

Thanks, Wyoming. I am aware of those links too, and am watching it (or, rather, my husband is. I am not much a data person, more of a visual and doing:)). Appreciate it. I sort of just know it's going to be bad. Like, really bad. Unless we hit a serious warming out of the blue. So, we shall see.

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Originally Posted by Wyoming

olgav100

Nice link.

But...where HLMG talks about the CA snowpacks in the 3 sections of north, middle and south it gives a bit of a understated view.

For instance the high areas in between Kennedy Meadows and the Lone Pine intersection at Trail Pass were absolutely BURIED with snow. From the Postholer site which has better snow data than was used by HLMG the new record Apr 1 snow pack there was about 50% higher than the old record and is about TRIPLE the normal Apr 1 amount (some 5 1/2 ft of water is sitting there in the form of snow. North of there there are other specific locations where there is 70 inches of water equivalent, 80, 85, 90 and even 100 inches of water sitting there in the form of snow and ice. Postholer had the PCT snow average right at 200% on Apr 1 - which shows the difference in using the snow data right at the trail as opposed to what CA reports - but that masks the extreme locations a bit also.

While averages are helpful of course, having data on specific locations and the potential at them for extreme conditions is also very useful.

We are also not done with the snow season. For instance the central Sierra is forecast to have heavy snow Fri and Sat.

http://www.postholer.com/snow/Pacific-Crest-Trail/1

http://www.postholer.com/postholer/c...rent_large.png

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More snow porn!

I draw your attention to the latest from Postholers site (Apr 10). It shows that the recent heavy snows in the high sierra have been substantial. There are now numerous places in between Kennedy Meadows and Sierra City where the snow totals exceed the Apr 1 records. Near Benson Pass it looks like they added about 4 water inches to the Apr 1 record and now are almost to 100 water inches (8.3 feet of water) sitting on the ground (that has to be somewhere near 40ft of snow).

http://www.postholer.com/snow/Pacific-Crest-Trail/1

Mammoth ski resort has 27.5 feet packed base at the summit.

Four days in the next week are forecast for snow in the high Sierra.

What a year!

Thinking of skipping the spikes and going full crampon.

Or flipping to OR.

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Originally Posted by Miner

As Burger noted, in 2009 (which wasn't nearly as bad as this year is turning out to be), there were people who tried flipping in early June, to avoid the unsettled air that was bringing fresh snow and delaying the melt off, found it didn't work out. I hiked with a woman in northern Washington who referred to her groups attempt at flipping as the ill fated Donner Party as they tried flipping from KM to Donner Pass (just north of Tahoe). Did not work at all due to the deep snow covering the trail so they couldn't find it and struggled to make any miles. Flipping on the PCT only works if only half the trail gets hammered by snow. Some years when the southern part gets a lot of snow, the northern part doesn't, and vice versa. That doesn't seem to be the case this year.

If you want to extend the hiking season as late as possible this year. Save Northern California for last as you normally can hike there later in the fall than you can in Oregon and Washington. I mention this as one of the smart choices may end up being to take some time off in June to let the snow melt more which gives less time to finish.

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Originally Posted by ImAfraidOfBears

Where exactly would be a good spot to jump back on in early june on the trail? Ashland? Trying to formulate some rough idea of a plan.

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Originally Posted by AllDownhillFromHere

I think the problem with flipping or bouncing around this year is that at _some_ point you have to tackle the Sierra. When do the snows normally return? It might suck the entire summer into fall.

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There's lots of talk as there is most yrs about snow levels but few possible solutions offered. Much of the snow talk centers on the Sierras. That's a MISTAKE this yr! That's where it's getting hit hard in relation to when PCT NOBOers are typically going through. THINK DIFFERENTLY FOR THIS YR'S DIFFERENT CONDITIONS! That's what LD hikers do!

I'd start late this yr in late May about third wk giving me more time to be in really good PCT thru-hiker condition from the get go. It would be hotter no doubt but still should experience left over water from this yrs snowmelt into May. I'd go NOBO from Campo to KM or better yet Crabtree Meadows(go over Trail Pass and take buses north). Gonna be other PCTers at KM late this yr so perhaps hooking up with others leapfrogging is a good option. Say better because getting to KM in the fall can be harder. KM is only open to Columbus Day. You're more public transportation able if you head out at Crabtree Meadows. This is about 750 miles. This takes a PCT NOBOer about 5 wks avg 150 miles/wk or at least that's what I'd plan. If the melt wasn't on in earnest and well into it in central and northern Cali which is, as Miner says holds snow into July particularly this very high snowfall yr, and since the Sierra is NOT REPEAT NOT the only place of high snowpack in Cali that holds snow late, as it likely will this yr into mid July at the 8k Ft + elevations in shaded forest, SKIP IT. Come back to it in Fall for the reasons Miner stated. Jump from Crabtree Meadows to Old Station(near the Subway right before Hat Creek Rim, PCT trail Angels did live here so they might be able to help!), Burney Falls SP, Mt Shasta(taking bus here and over to Dunsimir), or Ashland around the first wk of July. Personally I like the Old Station(Cali Sect N) with trail angel help or Burney Falls SP option but I've only hitched into these areas on two occasions so don't know of public transportation available. Jumping to BF SP at this time the falls should be pumping and the elevation north will be appreciated.

Cali Sect O is below 6k ft which shouldn't pose any great difficulty in July. Sect P is largely below 7 k. One could see some snow in Sect P(Trinity Alps Wilderness for example) but not like doing a straight NOBOer experiences it through the Sierra during typical or later PCT NOBO bubblers will through the Desolation Wilderness into Belden/Chester/Quincy Cali. Between Sect O and P you can time Etna Summit for 2nd wk of July. You should be good to go at mid July NOBO from there BUT NOT totally clear tread everywhere. Cali Sect Q stays under 7K ft. Snow shouldn't be a game changer descending into Seiad valley and onto Ashland OR. More lower elevation PCT tread heading NOBO out of Ashland. If meeting up in 3rd or 4th wk of July with snow in OR it shouldn't be difficult and you still have some lower elevation alternates as a back up.

Come back and do a SOBO for the northern Cali sections skipped and the Sierras in early fall to Crabtree Meadows. Northern Cali and the Sierra is great in the fall! Mt Whitney is your southern PCT thru hike celebration pt!

Should be some leeway about PCT Thru permits and Thru agendas this yr so it's not like you have to be saddled with what's given to you. PCT Trail Angels will be out there assisting as well. They are some of the best trail angels around!

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Originally Posted by AllDownhillFromHere

Thinking of skipping the spikes and going full crampon.

Or flipping to OR.

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Yeah, I have already gone full crampon, im final on my plans now, skipping from KM to seattle, will hang out there relaxing until whenever the window opens at harts pass to go sobo.

Hoping that is somewhere around late june early july, but we will see.

More porn - High Sierra webcam feed from Yosemite:

https://www.yosemiteconservancy.org/webcams/high-sierra

At least it looks sunny and warm!!

It is amazing to watch the PCT hikers get caught
up in a tizzy over the snow. It doesn't help that a bunch of cyberhikers that haven't experienced anything remotely similar to this snow weigh in with their doom and gloom.

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Originally Posted by ImAfraidOfBears

Yeah, I have already gone full crampon, im final on my plans now, skipping from KM to seattle, will hang out there relaxing until whenever the window opens at harts pass to go sobo.

Hoping that is somewhere around late june early july, but we will see.

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Interesting thought from listening/watching the PCT Snow Report that going earlier might be better than later because of the increase snow/snow melt would increase the dangerous of the river crossings.

It was proposed by Ned Tibbets (spelling?). Also reduce postholing and sun cups. I only listened to the first 30 minutes or so.

https://pctwater.com

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BTW I haven't hiked the PCT but I did through hike the JMT June 29-July 18 2016 which was a low snow year but there was still plenty of snow on some of the bigger passes.


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Originally Posted by Malto

It is amazing to watch the PCT hikers get caught
up in a tizzy over the snow. It doesn't help that a bunch of cyberhikers that haven't experienced anything remotely similar to this snow weigh in with their doom and gloom.

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Its not a boot-size contest.

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Originally Posted by AllDownhillFromHere

Its not a boot-size contest.

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Who said it was. There are a bunch of folks that have never stepped foot in the Sierra snow adding to the doom and gloom. No boot size contest in that comment at all. However, if the boot fits.....

April 23, 2017.
NOBO HOBOS Day 12
Snow on the ridge north of Idyllwild.
https://nobohobos.wordpress.com
New micro spikes replace the ones they left at home.
Wayne


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The Piutes are snow free right now, with just small isolated patches that are melting quickly. Still plenty of snow on Olancha.

Tioga Pass still is not open. Here is an article. Be sure to watch the video to get an idea of the conditions...

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/S...r-11221528.php

But highway 108 over Sonora Pass is open as of 2 days ago, so hikers can resupply after Yosemite to break up the leg to Lake Tahoe. Whats incredible is this is the latest the road over Sonora Pass has opened in the last 13 years if not longer. News Article Link

Folks are crossing Forester Pass. Someone ran out of food just past Forester. People are bound for Bishop to resupply.
Wayne


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