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  1. Replies
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    As one who has contended that the trail is...

    As one who has contended that the trail is slightly more dangerous than big cities, I wouldn't suggest any other approach.

    I'll see you on the trail.
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    I wasn't even considering not hiking on the AT. ...

    I wasn't even considering not hiking on the AT.

    One of my hobbies is hiking.

    Another of my hobbies is mathematics. I've enjoyed making these estimations more than many other things I do each...
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    Interesting. But if I were on a boat in the...

    Interesting. But if I were on a boat in the ocean considering going swimming, I'd only care about the risk of shark attack.
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    Reply to colorado_rob: Sorry, I just don't get...

    Reply to colorado_rob:

    Sorry, I just don't get it. I just don't understand why you separate the small number of thru hikers from the huge population of hikers, it seems to be this totally skews...
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    Obviously all calculations start with some known...

    Obviously all calculations start with some known numbers and some estimations (e.g. how long on the trail does each thru-hiker spend). Everyone familiar with the trail can join in and debate the...
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    I agree that most people I see on the trail are...

    I agree that most people I see on the trail are decent. However, I don't see why we would need to consider the distribution of bad people when we know incontrovertibly that people have been murdered...
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    I agree that there is no evidence that...

    I agree that there is no evidence that section/thru/day hikers have a different risk profile. I think I posted my most recent post while you were writing your post. I would guess that spending the...
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    Sorry for the insults. The goal is to...

    Sorry for the insults.

    The goal is to compare the danger of life on the trail by converting to a form used for typical US cities (murders per 100,000 per year). I think we're on the same page...
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    I stand by my analysis. Also, while I didn't...

    I stand by my analysis.

    Also, while I didn't mention "hiker hours", I did mention "person-years". For my purposes, "person" and "hiker" would be interchangeable. And if you need help converting...
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    Would love to hear your more correct analysis.

    Would love to hear your more correct analysis.
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    As I think of this more, most people murdered in...

    As I think of this more, most people murdered in the US are murdered by people they know. Perhaps estranged lovers, a drug deal gone bad, gang turf wars, etc. Since my ordinary life in...
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    Simple analysis since most won't read longer...

    Simple analysis since most won't read longer posts:

    If there have been 90,000 attempts at a thru-hike and we assume the average thru-hike attempt results in a person spending 3 months on the trail...
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    I believe 4eyebuzzard made a pretty solid case...

    I believe 4eyebuzzard made a pretty solid case that the AT is in fact not substantially safer than the rest of the US. You've dismissed it with nothing more than religious conviction. Obviously...
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    I think it is important to start by estimating...

    I think it is important to start by estimating how many "person-years" are spent on the trail. If you live in Baltimore, you probably spend 350+ days a year in Baltimore. If you leave Baltimore for...
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    This thread has just turned fun. People are at...

    This thread has just turned fun. People are at least attempting to make valid apples to apples comparisons about trail safety. It is not as easy to do as one would think. It is a lot more complex...
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    You say... " as if they are not, the thru hike is...

    You say... " as if they are not, the thru hike is not a vacation, but something more meaningful." Why am I required to keep my thoughts to myself, but you are free to share your thoughts on this...
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    Great point. People's belief that the AT is...

    Great point. People's belief that the AT is safer than civilization is held to with religious zeal. Safer than a grocery store? Well, if we only visit grocery stores that are at least 1 mile from...
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    The argument that the AT is a place for soul...

    The argument that the AT is a place for soul searching could also be said of playing video games in your parent's basement. One is free to hike their own hike, but not at my expense (and I would not...
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    Keep in mind that Thru-Hiking is recreation and a...

    Keep in mind that Thru-Hiking is recreation and a vacation. It is not a service to mankind (although there are many ways to service mankind that are not as difficult as thru-hiking).

    One should...
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    One other thing I'll mention. On my most recent...

    One other thing I'll mention. On my most recent hike in PA, there had been no recent rain, but the dew point seemed to be just right so that the cool rocks were surprisingly wet.

    Wet can be bad,...
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    One thing I've learned that applies especially...

    One thing I've learned that applies especially when rocks are wet is to always ask yourself "what will happen if my foot slips?" In most cases this will be a downhill slide. A foot slipping...
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    This video helped me a lot. I've always had bad...

    This video helped me a lot. I've always had bad knees, but this video helped me begin to understand that my hips were a big part of the challenge of hiking. My daily life involves mostly sitting...
  23. If a person hikes 5 miles per day and sleeps each...

    If a person hikes 5 miles per day and sleeps each night on the trail, that person can make a serious claim to be a thru-hiker. That person is intuitively more of a thru-hiker than most thru-hikers....
  24. I don't think it is a matter of one way being the...

    I don't think it is a matter of one way being the right way to hike or not, it is about whether using the word will be considered dishonest. No one is criticizing another person's choice of how to...
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    How many times have you fallen?

    I'm sure I "stumble" at least every day on the trail and likely look kind of goofy as I recover, but rarely has this let to my actually completely falling onto the ground. My memory might be...
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