2014 Snow levels chatter

[leaftye]

I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?

It's a good question, and one that will be easier to answer in the future if Halfmile continues to keep archives of the PCT water report. Keep checking the water report for updates, talk to trail angels, and adjust accordingly.

[Dogwood]

This is for you 10-K. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VbI5zcB8Ac

[Sasquatch!]

Yes, water sources dry up. This will be the third low precipitation year in a row. Possibly the lowest on record.

As I hiked through SoCal last year I saw as sources stopped flowing, became trickles, stagnant, etc. Most water is from tanks, caches, in town, etc. It seems less than half of the water I utilized was natural. A few times my several day old water report would indicate flowing well, and when I arrive its stagnant.

It will be dryer and hotter than average. Count on it. I wouldnt worry about water as much as fires closing the trail.

Just be ready to carry 4-6 liters.

[Sasquatch!]

Looks like Cali might get some precipitation Jan
28th. Heres hoping a lot more follows.

[singing wind]

Too early to tell. Quite a group talking about of planning on starting between April 1-8. Hope for the best!

[leaftye]

Looks like Cali might get some precipitation Jan
28th. Heres hoping a lot more follows.

I knew it! I should be camping at that time.

[juma]

If much of the PCT remains a tinder box, I'd be packing a couple of industrial strength dust masks just in case you get caught in some thick smoke from a big burn. I've pretty much lost any interest in hiking out west due to this worsening problem. I'd really hate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Be really careful out there !

ditto. wouldn't surprise me a bit if SOCAL closed the trail for the year south of KM.

[Dogwood]

A few times my several day old water report would indicate flowing well, and when I arrive its stagnant.

That happens to some degree even in so called avg or even higher precipitation yrs. Wter sources dry up. It is called the Mojave Desert for a reason.

...wouldn't surprise me a bit if SOCAL closed the trail for the year south of KM.

That's really jumping the gun. Before they did that they would put an open fire ban in effect. Forest Service may even show up at the KO or post info along the way or on the net warning of a high fire danger and how that specific level of fire danger relates to hikers.

Leaftye, don't you have some decent lower elev hiking alternatives in your region of SoCal?

[Dogwood]

With all this fire danger/low water level chit chat NO ONE has said anything about how that relates to PCTers and other hikers entering these areas having to be conscientious of their own hiking behavior in starting forest fires.

On Fredmug's Paradise Cafe thread he started today I spoke about a fire detour PCTers had to negotiate in 2008 over San Jacinto due to a forest fire. That fire was later determined to have been started by a hiker leaving behind a lit ember from a cigarette. Two other forest fires in 2008 that PCTers had to negotiate strongly pointed to hikers possibly having started them. In 2008 I had about 155 miles of PCT trail reroutes due to fires MOST of which were started by lightning or static electricity.

[Slo-go'en]

With all this fire danger/low water level chit chat NO ONE has said anything about how that relates to PCTers and other hikers entering these areas having to be conscientious of their own hiking behavior in starting forest fires.

It would be prudent for everyone to go stoveless this season, forgo camp fires and if you gotta smoke, use a pipe.

[leaftye]

I don't understand why a dry early to mid winter would result in a high likelihood of fire in the summer. Because it's dry right now, it means less growth at 5000 feet and below. I haven't seen anything die yet, so as long as this stretch of dry weather doesn't get to that point, I don't see a problem yet. Now if this unusual extreme dryness doesn't stop, then the trail is screwed. As of now, I don't see a major fire issue. We should always be using safe fire practices, so there's nothing we can do but react should a fire sprout up.

Dogwood, I'll probably be at low elevation for my next trip. I actually welcome the rain so long as it's not severe.

[Miner]

A dry winter/early spring does mean less new growth of possible fuel in the lower elevations. However, the fuel from previous years is still there. A dry year means that the brush dries out earlier in the year and the potential fire season is much longer since it starts earlier meaning more chances of a fire starting. In higher elevations, it means that trees are more susceptible to the the pine beatle which can and has killed off large sections of forests and leaves a giant tinderbox just waiting to go up. The forests near Big Bear already has a huge issue with this.

Why this affects thru-hikers? Because in a normal year, the fire danger is usually rated by the forest service as a medium risk (low risk in a wet year) as the brush still has some moisture during the spring period thru-hikers are hiking north through Southern California. In a dry year and particularly in a very dry year, the fire danger is rated high or extremely high as all the brush is already dried out and is a tinderbox waiting for a spark during the same period. So to conclude, a thru-hiker in a dry year has a higher chance of experiencing a fire or starting a fire then in a normal to wet year.

[ChinMusic]

They have gotten a decent amount of snow in the Sierras over the last week with more in the forecast. It's a good sign.

[Sasquatch!]

It could snow every day till April and it still wont be anything close to a normal snow year. December and January are the highest precipitation months, and we got pretty much nothing during that span.

Currently at about 13 percent in the Sierra.

[Slo-go'en]

Anything is got to be better then nothing. Here's hopeing it will be a wet spring for you guys.

[frisbeefreek]

According to the Postholer snow report, Donner Pass is at 2% of historical averages. As I write this now, CBS is telling be 2015 will be an El Nino year (aka massive amounts of snow).

[ChinMusic]

According to the Postholer snow report, Donner Pass is at 2% of historical averages. As I write this now, CBS is telling be 2015 will be an El Nino year (aka massive amounts of snow).

Oh, great.........

[bigboots]

Getting back to the snow ammounts (original post topic). With smaller volumes of snow in Sierras, is an ice ax really neccisary? Is it needed at all for a standard hike?

[Miner]

Getting back to the snow ammounts (original post topic). With smaller volumes of snow in Sierras, is an ice ax really neccisary? Is it needed at all for a standard hike?

The need for an ice axe is dependent on the amount of snow there is when you enter the High Sierra. The amount of winter snow, the temperatures (how fast it melts off), and how late you enter are all part of the equation. As an example, 2009 was a below average year, but due to unstable weather in late May/early June, more snow fell and the melt off was delayed so the conditions turned out to be like a more typical June. Those who entered in early June needed one, but when I entered later on June 24, I didn't.

I suspect that hikers this year won't need one unless they are trying to enter in early to mid May, but I wouldn't finalize my plans until it was time to leave for the Mexican border. Though its unlikely, occasionally spring turns out to be wet and can make up for a dry winter.

[bigboots]

Is there aconveinient place to rent an axe in the area if the snow levels require?