Where would the NOBOs be in May
Where on the trail are the NOBOs in May, assuming a mid March thru hike?
Trail Days
Most of em be back home by then I expect.Originally Posted by tarantolk
lol. to the op, for a mid March start date most will be 100 - 300 miles (approximately) north of Damascus. of course there will be exceptions .
Near and around Damascus, VA
Somewhere in Virginia if still hiking.
Getting lost is a way to find yourself.
Started 4/4 I was at Partnership Shelter May 15 . I'm an old guy.
Everything is in Walking Distance
Partying they're behinds off at Trail Days even if they gotta hitch to get there.Near and around Damascus, VA
"Hiking is as close to God as you can get without going to Church." - BobbyJo Sargent aka milkman Sometimes it's nice to take a long walk in THE FOG.
trail days
When in May?
With an April 1 start, I was in Damascus a week before Trail Days, and I was in the Shenandoahs by Memorial Day.
I started 3/21/13 @ Springer. On 5/18/13 (Saturday of Trail Days weekend), I was in Waynesboro VA. I didn't even think about trying to get back to Trail Days. Too far up the trail.
This table shows completing NOBO thru-hiker progress in a typical year (so a typical "middle of the pack" mid-March starter would be at the beginning of Virginia on the first of May and near the end of Virginia by the end of May):
MEDIAN DAY ~~ MEAN DAY ~~~ LANDMARK
March 17............March 20...........Springer
March 25............March 28...........Georgia Border
April 1................April 5...............Fontana
April 28..............April 29..............Damascus
May 29..............May 28..............Waynesboro
June 9...............June 8...............Harpers Ferry
June 29.............June 27..............DWG
July 12..............July 10...............Kent
Aug. 5...............Aug. 2...............Glencliff
Aug. 15.............Aug. 12..............Gorham
Aug. 26.............Aug. 22..............Stratton
Sept. 9..............Sept. 4..............Katahdin!
Last edited by map man; 02-05-2014 at 11:15.
I would guesstimate it like this:
Start mid March, end mid October. That's 7 months to go 2000 miles. That's 285 miles per month (just under 10 miles per day).
Two months in, they should be about 570 miles along.
Look at the AT by State:
GA: 76 miles
NC: 96 miles (172 total)
TN: 288 miles (460 total)
VA: 550 miles (1010 total)
So they should be roughly 1/4 of the way through VA.
Looking at the AT map and eyeballing 1/4 of the way through VA, you'll find Roanoke VA.
The other way to look at it is that an AT thru hiker might be averaging around 15 miles per day. In two months, that's 900 miles. That would put them about 4/5 of the way through VA. Again, eyeballing the map, that should put them just about finishing up SNP just outside of Washington DC.
Finally, you could say they have planned to take 6 months to hike the trail. In two months, that should put them about 1/3 of the way there, or about 670 miles. Based on the prior observations, that should put them about mid-VA, or about the enter SNP.
So VERY roughly speaking, the NOBO's should be around SNP in mid-May.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
