2014 Thru hikers starting later than usual becuase of snow/cold?

[TheYoungOne]

Follow last years trail journals, it seems 2013 was a bit brutal than previous years. The southern states got hit with late snow storms. Looking at this years weather and the so called "polar vortex" are some of you 2014 thru hikers bumping up your start times to a later date?

[Gus9890]

I'm still planning on starting my hike within the first couple weeks of March, but I also grew up in Northwest PA and I have a strong outdoors background.

[TurboPants]

I wondered when this topic was going to pop up hehe.

Here in Ohio we've been breaking cold records weekly for the last month. My 2014 got pushed to 2015, but had I still intended on doing it this year I'd definitely be starting later than March 20. Even the 2nd week of April it was in the high 30s in the gatlinburg area at lower elevations. All I can say is for those on the fence regarding sleeping gear, consider adding a liner of some sort for a few more degrees or even a space blanket, and MAYBE even going to a 0* down bag instead of a 20-30* bag. You almost have to wait until March to see if this jet stream will change. I expect folks to be hanging on to their cold gear a bit longer if this continues.

[moldy]

It's foolish to walk into this crap at the start of a thru hike. Today is the 7th of Feb and about 25 people have signed in as thru hikers at Springer. Most have tumbled right back home. The rest are still in Georgia. It's not possible to see what March will look like at this point. Everyone out there who can push the start later in the month will be better for it and increase their odds at success.

[Jeff]

Keep in mind the weather on the AT at an elevation of 4000-5000 foot is sharply different than those forecasts of towns like Hiawassee, Franklin, etc.

[sadlowskiadam]

Started last your at Springer on April 28th, and I'm glad I did due to the severe weather in March and April. I really never felt rushed and reached Katahdin on Oct. 12th. A LOT of early starters got off the trail last year due to bad weather and most did not return to the trail. For those starting in 2014 who are not used to hiking in winter conditions, I would recommend starting no earlier than April 15. Just my 2 cents. Best of luck to the Class of 2014. Wish I could do it again!

[kayak karl]

2014 thru hikers bumping up your start times to a later date?

will this incease the success percentage ?

[Happy44]

i start march 1st, lets see if thats a good choice!

[moldy]

will this incease the success percentage ?

For several years some hiking buddies and myself had a NOBO thru hike "fantasy hiking league". We went on Trail Journals and each picked a 10 person team and we tracked them on TJ. We each kicked in a hundred bucks. 1 point per mile. After a few years we each developed a system for winning. Even though I pretty much sucked at it. Others figured it out, and early starters were not a safe bet no matter how strong, motivated, young etc. a hiker looked. Early starters were right up there with fat and old as far as odds making went. That does not mean that old, fat early starters don't make it every year. It's just that if Las Vegas odds makers were handicapping this stuff, early starters won't have great odds. One of the problems was Trail Journals itself, some people walk and some people talk......

[4shot]

For several years some hiking buddies and myself had a NOBO thru hike "fantasy hiking league". We went on Trail Journals and each picked a 10 person team and we tracked them on TJ. We each kicked in a hundred bucks. 1 point per mile. After a few years we each developed a system for winning. Even though I pretty much sucked at it. Others figured it out, and early starters were not a safe bet no matter how strong, motivated, young etc. a hiker looked. Early starters were right up there with fat and old as far as odds making went. That does not mean that old, fat early starters don't make it every year. It's just that if Las Vegas odds makers were handicapping this stuff, early starters won't have great odds. One of the problems was Trail Journals itself, some people walk and some people talk......

I have always wondered if there was a way to sit atop the summit of Springer each spring and to identify who would finish and who would not. Interestingly enough, I think that I have heard/read that a higher % of "old" hikers finish than younger ones (of course the definition of what is 'old" varies).Everyone is full of hope and enthusiasm at the start. One thing I would look for is the hiker who says that he/she is going to thruhike OR just hike until the trail is no longer fun.
BTE, the idea of 'fantasy league" is funny.

[rickb]

For several years some hiking buddies and myself had a NOBO thru hike "fantasy hiking league". We went on Trail Journals and each picked a 10 person team and we tracked them on TJ. We each kicked in a hundred bucks. 1 point per mile. After a few years we each developed a system for winning. Even though I pretty much sucked at it. Others figured it out, and early starters were not a safe bet no matter how strong, motivated, young etc. a hiker looked. Early starters were right up there with fat and old as far as odds making went. That does not mean that old, fat early starters don't make it every year. It's just that if Las Vegas odds makers were handicapping this stuff, early starters won't have great odds. One of the problems was Trail Journals itself, some people walk and some people talk......

I find this hard to believe.

(The part about having buddies, I mean)

[4shot]

I find this hard to believe.

(The part about having buddies, I mean)

your comment is either TIC and very funny OR the petty comments of another anonymous internet tough guy. If it's the former, good job and well done. if it's the latter, why post it? Regards,

[rickb]

Post deleted -- Meriadoc's post below makes a good point

[Meriadoc]

Gentlemen and gentlewomen, let's remember to discuss what was said and not the person saying them!

Cheers and a merry morning to all.
-Merry

[rickb]

Best not to bet real money on the success or failure of a fellow hiker, though. Just one person's opinion.

[lonehiker]

Appears to me that they were betting on success (at least for their team). What is wrong with that?

[4shot]

The bets are an example of an observational study - data is collected without altering the outcomes of each's hikers chance of success or failure. Success in this case being used in the statistical sense of the word. I think that would be an ethical study (providing that modest sums were being wagered for entertainment purposes only. had to get that legal disclaimer in there). An unethical bet would be an experiment where something was being done to alter the outcomes of the hikes. The hikers are unaware of the study so their hikes are unaltered and data collection is unobtrusive. The data is available as a public record.I have had some background in statistics and design of experiments and don't see anything wrong with it. perhaps if moldy's group was making the results of their wager public but I doubt that they are doing so.

[Sly]

I find this hard to believe.

(The part about having buddies, I mean)

your comment is either TIC and very funny....,

That's how I took it.

[Theosus]

Best not to bet real money on the success or failure of a fellow hiker, though. Just one person's opinion.

Why not? They are all just building a team and hoping their own team succeeds, and having fun in the process. But even if they are betting the other team fails... it's not going to affect the outcome of what happens in the real world.
A hiker who is going to fail, is going to fail, no matter what someone sitting at a computer 500 miles away is hoping for. A hiker who is going to complete the task, also will not be influenced by any hopes or prayers on the part of some desk jockey he's never heard of.

This is the first "fantasy sport league" I have ever found interesting. All the other ones seem like thinly veiled Dungeons and Dragons for jocks...but this is something that could be fun. Although I limit my bets to about 5 bucks... so this wouldn't pay well for me for the work involved.

[4eyedbuzzard]

. . . Interestingly enough, I think that I have heard/read that a higher % of "old" hikers finish than younger ones (of course the definition of what is 'old" varies).

I would think money and hiking experience and physical fitness all also factor into this.
Many young hikers have not done a lot of backpacking and/or long distance hiking. Some are out there as a coming of age experience, etc. Some also run out of money. Some have school or job pressures/commitments that they must return to. But as a group they tend to have less health/physical problems.
Many "old" hikers are probably more seasoned hikers that have waited many years for their chance to thru-hike. They are as a group probably more experienced hikers and know they want this challenge/experience, more financially secure and/or retired, and don't face as many time restraints. But, physically, older hikers probably drop out more due to injury/illness or just physical tiredness.
I can see where it would be an interesting "fantasy league" to some.