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  1. #1

    Default Smoky Mountain - weather forecasting website?

    Say I wanted to know the weather forecast for this weekend in the higher elevations of the Smokey's.

    What sites would you recommend to figure this out?
    I'm not personally planning on going but I know somebody who might be.

    I'm trying to determine if it's a one or two blow torch forecast (couldn't resist).

  2. #2
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    To find some historical data, check out the NOAA website: What's so great about this site is you can find out what the actual weather reading were at various weather stations around the park.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by HooKooDooKu View Post
    To find some historical data, check out the NOAA website: What's so great about this site is you can find out what the actual weather reading were at various weather stations around the park.
    Good to know. But I'm looking specifically for this weekend.

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    Using the NOAA information, you can get some good ideas based on many of what I would call "general" weather forecasts.

    The site I usually use the most is Intellicast for Great Smoky Mountains. But you can also look for weather forecasts for Gatlinburg and Cherokee. Gatlinburg is practically the Sugarland's visitor's center, and you use historical data to see that forecasts for GSMNP at Intellicast roughly matches what has been recorded for Sugarland's Visitors Center.

    Using the NOAA information, you can see that temperatures are about 10 degrees as higher elevations (5000' for Newfound Gap) and day time highs about 15 degrees colder with night time lows about 10 degrees colder at extreme elevations.

    Taken all together, if you are going to be at upper elevations on Friday night, you have to expect temperatures to get down to near 0. If you wait until Saturday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer. There is currently no snow depth recorded at any of the NOAA locations, with what appears to be only light snow during the week. So you might have to worry about a light snow on the ground in some places.

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  6. #6

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    Thank you both

  7. #7

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    From the weather maps I've been seeing, it looks like a three blow torch weekend for sure. Snow should be at least waist deep in a day or two up there and it's not going to warm up much. At least that's what the optimistic model is showing...
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    Probably gonna need a 1/4 cord of socks as well.

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    IMG_1424.JPG.........

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    http://www.mountain-forecast.com/

    I like & have used this one.

  11. #11
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    Another useful resource is the NOAA 'Higher Summits' or 'Recreation' forecasts. I did a post on them earlier.
    I always know where I am. I'm right here.

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    My best guesses come from taking area weather data and watching weather fronts using a radar app. As mentioned, subtract a few degrees for every 1000' of altitude. That's actually how I got my trail name.....I was able to call rain storms and temperature drops, within 20 min or so, using the above techniques.

    Of course that was all luck, to include having a cell signal, but I'll never admit that in public!

    My favorite apps are Wunderground and Radar Pro.
    Last edited by Weather-man; 02-11-2014 at 10:05.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4eyedbuzzard View Post
    Probably gonna need a 1/4 cord of socks as well.
    some areas down the bottom end of the trail could get anywhere from a half inch to an inch of ice outta this storm. if that rings true, that will mean alot of tree damage and downed branches. I wouldn't want to be on the trail. That much ice healthy tree branches of good size come down without warning

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southeast View Post
    Say I wanted to know the weather forecast for this weekend in the higher elevations of the Smokey's.

    What sites would you recommend to figure this out?
    I'm not personally planning on going but I know somebody who might be.

    I'm trying to determine if it's a one or two blow torch forecast (couldn't resist).
    what a low blow174176ba.jpg

  15. #15

    Default Highly localized mountain forecasting

    I normally rely on Ray's Weather (www.raysweather.com) for localized forecasting for the common border areas of NC-TN-VA. They're headquartered in Boone, NC but offer forecasting locations and real-time stations as far southwest as Haywood, Buncombe, and Madison Counties, NC.

    I have not been in the Smokies during severe weather so can't vouch for Rays' accuracy down there, but they pretty much nail it in Watauga, Avery, Ashe, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties.

    One niggling issue: during weather events, such as while I'm typing this, the Ray's server gets pretty slow.

    AO

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrcoffeect View Post
    some areas down the bottom end of the trail could get anywhere from a half inch to an inch of ice outta this storm. if that rings true, that will mean alot of tree damage and downed branches. I wouldn't want to be on the trail. That much ice healthy tree branches of good size come down without warning
    That could be exciting, listening to the branches crack and trees explode. Sounds like gun shots going off. If your starting soon, bring a saw, preferably a chain saw That much ice can do a lot of damage.
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    Well, it would be an adventure... I live about 15 miles away... The road to Newfound Gap (441) has been closed for starters... There is snow already on the ground and much more predicted on Wed.

  18. #18

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    [QUOTE=urbansix;1847090]http://www.mountain-forecast.com/

    Yes, this one is good. I have used it for trips in the Wind River Range and southern Sierras.

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by lissersmith View Post
    Well, it would be an adventure... I live about 15 miles away... The road to Newfound Gap (441) has been closed for starters... There is snow already on the ground and much more predicted on Wed.
    I'm goin with this forecast for the weekend

    ...but all those websites have been noted and book marked...thanks all

  20. #20

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    Here are all the links provided so far.
    NOAA website - historical data (HooKooDooKu)
    Intellicast for Great Smoky Mountains - (HooKooDooKu)
    http://www.outragegis.com/weather/grsm/ (Rainman)
    Kevin's post on NOAA 'Higher Summits' or 'Recreation' forecasts (Another Kevin)
    National Weather Service Recreational forecast (direct link to the GSMNP info from Another Kevin)
    www.raysweather.com (Alleghanian Orogeny)

    And thanks @lissersmith for giving us the live outside-the-window forecast

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