SOBO Late July Start

[10-K]

My gut tells me that a smart hiker with some experience who plans a 4 month thru from the beginning has a good chance of success. The OP is a smart guy if you've read his posts.

Now, an inexperienced hiker trying to figure out pacing, gear, etcetera as they hike... Not so much.

A 4 month thru is not an Olympian feat.

[rafe]

I would hope somebody's got better (more current) statistics by now. Roland Mueser's book (Long Distance Hiking, ISBN 0-97-044458-7) is based on statistics from the early to mid 1990s. Here for example is Table 12-1 from that book:

Average Miles Hiked Per Day (Percent of ultimately successful thru-hikers)
10-12: 6%
13-15: 60%
16-18: 27%
19-21: 5%
22+: 2%

[10-K]

...............

[10-K]

The only meaningful stats would be if you had a data set of hikers who specifically set out from day 1 to do a 4 month thru.

For the purpose of this thread, Map Man's stats don't don't apply because it's not the data you need to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion.

[rafe]

Intent can have an impact, when it's aligned with reality and luck and all sorts of other goodness. Like they used to say in New York, "That, and a token, will get you a ride on the subway."

Every spring thousands of folks show up at Springer intending to hike to Katahdin, but the vast majority fail. I wish the OP the best of luck regardless. Even if he can't finish the whole trail in the time allowed, it's bound to be a heck of a trip.

[Coffee]

Thanks again for all the feedback. I think that I'm going to stick with the CT for this summer which I know I can finish and leave an AT thru for a future year when I have more long distance hiking experience and a better sense of my pace over long periods. I might even be able to get up to NH or Maine this fall to check out a small section and go for some scenic drives once I get back from Colorado.

[colorado_rob]

Thanks again for all the feedback. I think that I'm going to stick with the CT for this summer which I know I can finish and leave an AT thru for a future year ....

One thing to think about; a double-crown buddy of mine (AT, PCT) told me once to "Make sure I hiked the AT before the PCT". I didn't quite get what he was saying then, but I do now, having hiked half the AT and a bit of the PCT. It would be really tough to hike the AT after the PCT, IMHO.

[Coffee]

One thing to think about; a double-crown buddy of mine (AT, PCT) told me once to "Make sure I hiked the AT before the PCT". I didn't quite get what he was saying then, but I do now, having hiked half the AT and a bit of the PCT. It would be really tough to hike the AT after the PCT, IMHO.

I have to admit that after hiking the JMT last year, the sections of the AT and other eastern trails I'm familiar with cannot compare in terms of scenery. But I still appreciate these trails for what they offer which is very different from the west, and I've read that the Maine and New Hampshire sections of the AT can compare to the PCT in terms of scenery although of course it is different and subjective.

[colorado_rob]

I have to admit that after hiking the JMT last year, the sections of the AT and other eastern trails I'm familiar with cannot compare in terms of scenery. But I still appreciate these trails for what they offer which is very different from the west, and I've read that the Maine and New Hampshire sections of the AT can compare to the PCT in terms of scenery although of course it is different and subjective.

Yeah, I hear ya, the thing that keeps me going on the AT (almost out of VA) is what it finally becomes up north. I cannot wait to hike through VT, NH and ME.

[Jeff]

Many SOBO thruhikers who stay at Green Mountain House average about 8 weeks from Katahdin to Manchester, VT....538 miles.

[10-K]

8 weeks = 56 days / 538 miles = 9.6 miles a day.

That just seems low to me for hiking during the time of year when there are more 12 hours of daylight each day.

I wonder if people going off trail into hostels are a self-selecting group of slower hikers in general? When I hike one of the primary things I look for when I stay in a town is how fast and easy is it to get back to the trail when I'm ready to go - which is pretty early.

[colorado_rob]

8 weeks = 56 days / 538 miles = 9.6 miles a day.

That just seems low to me for hiking during the time of year when there are more 12 hours of daylight each day.

.

I agree, but Jeff did say "many", not "most". One thing that I see over and over on WB is the wide difference in MPD among us all. There are tons of 8-10 MPD folks, and lots of us 20+ MPDers (I'm not claiming I'll be doing 20+ in NH and ME, more like 15 on average or a tad less even). RN seems to me to be much more in the high end of MPD, but the low end MPD folks just don't see how folks do such mileage. I don't think a 18 week SOBO thru is really any big deal and entirely doable, but sure, you gotta keep pickin' 'em up and puttin' 'em down!

[flemdawg1]

8 weeks = 56 days / 538 miles = 9.6 miles a day.

That just seems low to me for hiking during the time of year when there are more 12 hours of daylight each day.

I wonder if people going off trail into hostels are a self-selecting group of slower hikers in general? When I hike one of the primary things I look for when I stay in a town is how fast and easy is it to get back to the trail when I'm ready to go - which is pretty early.

Of course it seems low to YOU. You get up at the butt-crack of dawn and bust out 10 miles before lunch. YOU ARE NOT NORMAL.

[Coffee]

I am quite sure that a low mile per day pace (like 10-12) would drive me nuts very quickly since I generally enjoy hiking and moving along much more than hanging out in camp.

I have found that in varied terrain, I seem to cover about 2 miles per hour including the type of typical short breaks I might take such as a quick snack, hanging around/taking photos at a peak or pass, drying out gear, etc. Obviously this depends on terrain, but as an average I think it is correct. So a 10-12 mile per day pace would imply five to six hours on the trail and lots of time in camp. I get bored pretty quickly in camp in the evenings and like to hit the trail relatively early in the morning. My ideal day would be hitting the trail soon after sunrise, maybe a one hour break mid-day, and hiking until late afternoon in time to set up camp and have dinner before dark.

So in theory, moving along for ten hours per day for a 20 mile per day average seems entirely doable given the amount of daylight available in the summer and early fall, my personality, and preferences regarding how I like spending my time. What I cannot say is how my body will react to doing that kind of mileage for 18 weeks since my longest hike to date was the JMT, and at a slower pace compared to what I now prefer. That's the hike where I discovered that I was much more happy with 18 mile days than 12 mile days, and not all that happy with a couple of unplanned zero days where I was pretty bored and didn't feel worn out enough to justify not hiking at all. (I had to take the zeros or the hike would have ended way too early for my scheduled/reserved flight home - even so, I arrived at Lone Pine a day earlier than planned).

I know that my body recovers pretty quickly from hiking and running. One school of thought is that sustained effort will "harden" the body over time and increase fitness. But I've read plenty of accounts of people who just wore themselves out over time. So after much consideration, I don't think that I want to risk finding out how my body reacts to these conditions in a situation where I must make those kind of miles, like a 4 month SOBO AT ending by Thanksgiving. And for whatever reason, I do attach a priority on finishing and wouldn't be happy just hiking until the four months are up and ending short of the finish (I recognize that this isn't necessarily logical).

I think that the Colorado Trail will be a good way to test how my body reacts to sustained high mileage over a one month period. At this point, my tentative plan for the CT includes 28 full hiking days, 2 full zeros, and 2 near zeros. With a few side trips, the hike should be around 520 miles for an average of 17 mpd including neros and close to 19 including only full hiking days. If I get to the end of the CT, still enjoying it, and feeling like I could keep going indefinitely, I'll know that I'm ready for the PCT at my desired five month pace or for a future four month SOBO AT.

[rafe]

The percentage of folks (among successful AT through hikers) who can manage a 20 MPD average is quite small. 5% or less, is my guess. In Maine and New Hampshire, it's smaller still.

At 55, I could still do 18 MPD per day for three or four days running, but after figuring an occasional nero, that average was back down to 15. And that was in the easy parts of the AT.

What do we know of RN's hiking ability? From what I think I've read, he's hiked the JMT, but has never hiked in New England. What reason have we to believe that he might be in the elite 5%?

[colorado_rob]

The percentage of folks (among successful AT through hikers) who can manage a 20 MPD average is quite small. 5% or less, is my guess. In Maine and New Hampshire, it's smaller still.

At 55, I could still do 18 MPD per day for three or four days running, but after figuring an occasional nero, that average was back down to 15. And that was in the easy parts of the AT.

What do we know of RN's hiking ability? From what I think I've read, he's hiked the JMT, but has never hiked in New England. What reason have we to believe that he might be in the elite 5%?

I don't have any reason to believe him except HE believes him, and who are we to doubt? I'm nearly 58 and I easily averaged 18 MPD, including all neros/zeros and lots of days in the easy parts were 22-25 miles. Your response is exactly what I was saying before: people project what THEY can do into others and poo-poo them for what they want and think they can do because they themselves cannot. I personally like to cautiously encourage rather than cynically discourage.

Of course the MPD is much less in New England, but lets not forget a good part of VT through MD (SOBO) where big mile days are common and relatively easy. And some of us are not in the least bothered or intimidated by extreme up/down/scrambling because we do it all the time.

In any case, sounds like RN has a good plan: get his long-distance legs on him with the OUTSTANDING CO trail (just ask me!), then the PCT. I still maintain he will have somewhat of a hard mental time trying the AT after the PCT, but that's just me projecting into him, exactly what I say we shouldn't do.

[rafe]

CR: Yes, I'm projecting but I'm also looking at long term statistics from two separate studies. 20 MPD average -- over the entire AT -- is exceedingly rare, on the order of 5% of all finishers. And we can be pretty certain that one's average in, say, Virginia, is going to be a good deal better than one's average in the Whites.

You say I'm being cynical. I say: telling a stranger that he's likely to do 20 MPD in the Whites is likely to sow false hopes and expectations.

It's all moot anyway, with regard to the OP -- he's going to do another trail -- so I'll say no more.

[colorado_rob]

CR: Yes, I'm projecting but I'm also looking at long term statistics from two separate studies. 20 MPD average -- over the entire AT -- is exceedingly rare, on the order of 5% of all finishers. And we can be pretty certain that one's average in, say, Virginia, is going to be a good deal better than one's average in the Whites.

You say I'm being cynical. I say: telling a stranger that he's likely to do 20 MPD in the Whites is likely to sow false hopes and expectations.

It's all moot anyway, with regard to the OP -- he's going to do another trail -- so I'll say no more.

I hear ya, but again, I don't think the OP ever dreamed he'd be doing 20MPD (or even close) in the whites. And by the way, his 20MPD average overall included one full zero day per week. Without those zero days, he would only need to average 17 MPD over the entire trail, meaning 17 MPD with all zeros figured in. Very doable by some, including my 58 year old body. You say 5% and I don't doubt your numbers, but for actually experienced hikers, as RN is (even only having done the JMT) that number would be higher.

And what's the downside of optimistic encouragement???? None. It's not like climbing a big dangerous mountain where optimistic encouragement can lead to danger. It's just walking! (well, admittedly a bit more than that in the Whites!).