Once again, nice job with the numbers Odd Man Out. This guy has flown under the radar so far. He's got a shot!
Well, had to take a peek- plugged Odd Man's data into my sheet for fun.
Joey had a bit of a "slow start" per the law of averages but seems quite on track relative to the difficulty of each section after reaching Fontana. Suppose a week (12 days officially) to settle in can be expected.
So- he hasn't finished the Kent to Glencliff section- and to make things work smoother I averaged his mileage from Waynesboro to Harpers for the calculator (it only uses one known section to project) and that number best matched his known times to date. 56.9 days says the calculator.
We'll see how it goes- in theory he should be tapering his mileage towards Glencliff- his latest posts show he is fighting for his 40, I show he only needs to average 37 to Kent.
Well done fella!
Going to try to pass this info on; but if any have the means please let Joey see this info if possible- 27 in the whites would be plenty- hate to see him come so far and get hurt pushing for a mileage he doesn't need to hit.
Last edited by Just Bill; 06-25-2014 at 12:39. Reason: mixed up kent and glencliff
I feel a graph coming forth. When I get some free time....
at least he's attempting the traditional way
Class Act
Seems Matt caught word of Joey's efforts and true to form remains a "Grand" Gentleman- Bravo to Matt Kirk
Matt's post-
"Dang, Ward gets 23 years and I won't even get one!?!? I just learned about your attempt. Your ability to improvise resupply and keep your feet healthy given wetness and day-to-day pounding at such a fast clip is unbelievable! It's been entertaining to read what you've shared on this blog. Thank you for your efforts. I'm impressed that you've been able to share so much while on the trail! You are living life. Enjoy the sweet dessert of NH and ME! Safe and happy trails to the end, Go Joe, go!"
little late, but I'll say....
56 days 12 hours and 17 min
Go Joey Go!
NOBO- so at least it will "count"Originally Posted by Lone Wolf
and not a damn RV, functioning or otherwise in sight.
It will be fun to watch the last couple of weeks of this play out. Clearly a very strong and determined hiker. I'm rooting for him.
I wanted to correct my link. This is the correct link to Right Here's Trailjournal's entry from June 14th where he runs into Joey just north of Port Clinton PA and Joey tells him his goal is to reach Katahdin on July 6 & Joey lets Right Here take a photo of him.
Here's some more numbers. We can compare to Camp's progress to Map Man's analysis of a typical thru hike by section. You can see he got off to a fast start, relative to a typical thru hiker, but after Fontana he has been remarkably consistent, hiking 2.59 times faster than an typical thru hiker over that distance. Let's assume this is the point where typical thru hikers get the "tail legs". If we use this scale factor to project the expected MPD for Camp over the last 4 sections and then use this to project the number of days to hike these sections, and then use this to project a total number of days, we get a 56.23 day hike. See Sheet 2 of the spreadsheet in dropbox.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7svq4goupry54z7/Camps.xlsx
Capture.JPG
Matt is a real class guy. He did say last year that he was sure that someone would break his record. I dont think he thought it would be this year. If Flash stays healthy looks like he will be the record holder. Good luck Flash. Stay strongSeems Matt caught word of Joey's efforts and true to form remains a "Grand" Gentleman- Bravo to Matt Kirk
Matt's post-
"Dang, Ward gets 23 years and I won't even get one!?!? I just learned about your attempt. Your ability to improvise resupply and keep your feet healthy given wetness and day-to-day pounding at such a fast clip is unbelievable! It's been entertaining to read what you've shared on this blog. Thank you for your efforts. I'm impressed that you've been able to share so much while on the trail! You are living life. Enjoy the sweet dessert of NH and ME! Safe and happy trails to the end, Go Joe, go!"
Poaching Odd Man Out's numbers, through June 23.
THANKS! I was too lazy to make the graph.Poaching Odd Man Out's numbers, through June 23.
This man is definitely cranking it out! Go Joey Go!!!! You Got This !!!... Wonder if Ward Leonard is aware & following? It would be interesting to hear his perspective....
Thinking of Ward, has anyone ever bested his Flip-Flop feat? I'm pretty sure he did 3 Thrus in less than a calendar year.
* Not Flip-Flop, meant Yo-yo 's.......
Slo-go'en,
Going off of your definition, wouldn’t the record still be retained by Ward Leonard? During his hike Matt had purchase food from other hikers while on the trail. Up to that point of purchase, that food weight was carried by other hikers. So he was supported. Ward on the other hand, had to get off trail, go into town and purchase his own food. All this takes time.
Wolf
No worries. I would be happy to update 2-3x per week if you grab the numbers.
Appreciate you boys doing that/this, it's fun to follow along.
Jeff- as an amatuer but curious fella at the numbers game-Poaching Odd Man Out's numbers, through June 23.
What is the point of the cumulative miles being displayed? Doesn't it always (more or less) graph out as a simple triangle? On a typical hike I suppose it would show zero's or slow sections better, but on a hike of (relatively) constant velocity I don't get it. Or is it just a question of scale not showing the variations?
Or do I simply show my ignorance of the science in seeing it's value?
Also- if available when there is time- the graphic I would like to see would be the miles per day(y) against the location on the trail(x), ideally with a line for Jen, Matt, Joey and the average hiker from Map Man's data sets.
Likely a big project- but I appreciate the skill and clarity with which you make these charts and would find that one very compelling- showing performance vs trail difficulty as well as hiker vs. hiker.
Thank you again for your efforts regardless.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
