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  1. #1
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    Default The answer to the bear worries

    Not sure if this has been posted yet, but it does give some perspective:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...u-this-summer/

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    It is more fun to displace worries onto something more dramatic.
    The most dangerous thing on the AT is ticks.

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    ME => GA 19AT3 rickb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    It is more fun to displace worries onto something more dramatic.
    The most dangerous thing on the AT is ticks.
    I will let that one go ...

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    It is more fun to displace worries onto something more dramatic.
    The most dangerous thing on the AT is ticks.
    Tick bites are not fatal in the short term, although some victims might wish they were.
    "It's fun to have fun, but you have to know how." ---Dr. Seuss

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    Humans are biologically members of the Animal Kingdom specifically mammals. Minus all the Religionist's and philosophical ideas of humans not being animals the most likeliest animal the human animal is going to die from this summer is another human animal. :eek

    If one reason can be traced back to why there is so much fear of wild animals and destruction of the environment and loss of life, including other human life, it is the underLYING belief that humans are all separate from one another and everything else including the environment.

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    Cool I did the calculations

    Because I have no life, because I'm fascinated by relative risk factors, and because I wish people would stop being scared of bears; I sat down one time and did some rough calculations.

    I reached the conclusion that, if you drive 100 miles to a place in the east with black bears, you're more likely to die from a collision with a left-handed driver of a Yugo than from a bear attack.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenBear View Post
    Because I have no life, because I'm fascinated by relative risk factors, and because I wish people would stop being scared of bears; I sat down one time and did some rough calculations.

    I reached the conclusion that, if you drive 100 miles to a place in the east with black bears, you're more likely to die from a collision with a left-handed driver of a Yugo than from a bear attack.
    I'm skeptical of your claim that there is still a drivable Yugo to be found in the US.
    Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    Humans are biologically members of the Animal Kingdom specifically mammals. Minus all the Religionist's and philosophical ideas of humans not being animals the most likeliest animal the human animal is going to die from this summer is another human animal. :eek

    If one reason can be traced back to why there is so much fear of wild animals and destruction of the environment and loss of life, including other human life, it is the underLYING belief that humans are all separate from one another and everything else including the environment.
    This applies to all facets of our lives including "legislation" meant to somehow instantly dispel centuries of evolution, and human nature in general, with arbitrary laws that place arbitrary standards upon standards otherwise set by mother nature herself for millenniums. It's a big part of the corruption of the human race as a species by people with agendas to manipulate and control others. The world today is glaring proof of it's failure.

  9. #9

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    ON another note: Bears have moved into the Piedmont of SC - as a trail runner I guess I should start carrying pepper spray?

    http://www.heraldonline.com/news/loc...e24798634.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Feral Bill View Post
    Tick bites are not fatal in the short term, although some victims might wish they were.
    Doesnt need to be fatal to be dangerous.

    Extremely common from va to me, and untreated creates serious health issues long term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenBear View Post
    Because I have no life, because I'm fascinated by relative risk factors, and because I wish people would stop being scared of bears; I sat down one time and did some rough calculations.

    I reached the conclusion that, if you drive 100 miles to a place in the east with black bears, you're more likely to die from a collision with a left-handed driver of a Yugo than from a bear attack.
    Hehehe. Hahaha.

  12. #12

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    Perspective is the operative word! Just a casual look at deaths on the AT over the past few years, personal health issues (heart failure, etc) appears to be near or at the top of the list. This is closely followed by drowning and falls. Death by the hand of others or animals is still rare by comparison.

    Dangerous is another story, as MuddyWaters points out. Ticks, spiders, and bees can be very dangerous. Pit vipers are another danger. Weather is high on the list of things to worry about killing you, never mind one's own inability to recognize a dangerous circumstance when they stumble into one. These may not prove to be lethal, but do have that potential for those who are not prepared.

    I have been hiking around southern New England most of my life without any problems from insects until last weekend. I got a spider bite that swelled up to the size of a golfball on my hip, very quickly and could have been a real problem had I not gotten medical treatment. It was startling to say the least and gave me a renewed appreciation for just how many things can affect ones life and health.

  13. #13
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    If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.
    Marcus Aurelius


    Renew your mind. Embrace knowledge, love, truth, and wisdom and the ignorance that breeds fear will no longer keep you in a delusional state of undue fear.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    Humans are biologically members of the Animal Kingdom specifically mammals.
    More specifically, because mammals are a dime a dozen, we are primates

    Good article and I agree, it's the cars that will kill you -- safe driving is another one of my pet peeves. So many unsafe drivers out there and EVERYONE breaks the law, i.e. they go faster than the speed limit. Bears don't scare me, that's why I keep my food in my tent with me, I'll just kick that overgrown dog's face in, but cars have me concerned. And it's mostly because of idiots and their driving, that's why flying is so much safer, actually it's even safer than walking, according to statistics -- that's crazy.


    I was surprised the article didn't mention the third deadliest activity --- Doctor visits
    http://www.healthcareitnews.com/news...es-hit-records

    P.S. Those gifs were great especially the kitty shuffleboard

  15. #15
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    I'd have to put ticks much higher on the list of dangers than your average black bear......
    I set out in 2010 to thru hike the AT, figured I was going to 'hoofit' all the way to Maine.
    Well, I slept amongst all kinds of spiders, dodged my share of lethal snakes and came upon many black bears, one a mother with her cubs but the lil' bugger that took me off the trail was a tick up around Pennsylvania, some 1300 miles into my hike..
    I went from climbing mountains with thirty pounds on my back to not even being able to climb the one set of stairs here at my house in Florida.I'd have to stop half way up and take a rest...
    It took a couple of years and loads of antibiotics to get back to normal and I still have episodes where for no apparent reason, I just have zero energy.
    So, to all you newbies, take precautions, none of us are immune to the deer tick and they are everywhere, especially up north.
    Next year I head back to where I left off and I will finish up this amazing journey that started several years ago.
    I am already counting the weeks!

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Doesnt need to be fatal to be dangerous.

    Extremely common from va to me, and untreated creates serious health issues long term.
    Yeah, ticks are to be feared; you can't just kick them in the face

    I got lyme disease in 2006 and I'm still dealing with the consequences. I've given up on doctors and I'm taking it on myself. Those doctor visits were just too scary

  17. #17
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    Ticks are surely in the top 10, but my biggest worries on the trail are:
    • Medical emergencies. My medical profile doesn't look too bad for a guy my age, but I'm no longer young.
    • Automobiles.
    • Falls.
    • Drowning.
    • Hypothermia.


    By contrast, black bears don't even make the list of "things to worry about" for personal safety, except that they could conceivably increase the risk of hypothermia by shredding my gear.

    Even about the issue of shredded gear, I worry more about mini-bears. I've had gear dragged away by smaller omnivores. Once was by a porcupine. He got my skivvies, and I never got them back. The other time was by a raccoon. He woke me by dragging my pack out from under my feet in a shelter while I was sleeping. At -3F or so, so it took longer than usual to undo the sleeping bag, get boots on (Frozen! Ouch!) and give chase. I got everything back except my TP - which got shredded.

    General rule: "If you hear about it on the evening news, you needn't worry about it, because the news reports incidents that are vanishingly rare. Common things like car crashes and falls aren't newsworthy unless they're unusually gory."
    I always know where I am. I'm right here.

  18. #18

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    I guess this reporter couldn't think of anything to write for the week so he spun off from the article in the OP. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/afraid-...181712526.html


    BTW, I almost stepped on a rattlesnake today, been hiking the trails around Washington D.C. -- they're kind of cool, like a microcosm of the AT. The snake was directly in the middle of the path and coiled, ready to strike. I picked up a stick and showed him the way off the trail.

    I wasn't too scared, mainly because I was too occupied in trying to remember how much of their body length then can move when they strike... Is it a 1/2 or maybe 1-1/2... ...all well, he moved off. I'm sure if I keep messin' with the snakes I'll figure it out

  19. #19
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    Smile You are correct

    > I'm skeptical of your claim that there is still a drivable Yugo to be found in the US.

    My original work used data from WAY long ago.
    Because I have no life... oh, to heck with it; I'll just redo the data.

    The most recent (2010) information I could find
    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=124631334
    states that there are about 1000 Yugos still on the road.

    That's out of 253 million cars.
    http://www.latimes.com/business/auto...609-story.html
    Meaning the odds that a vehicle accident will involve a Yugo is about 250,000 to one.

    In 2013 there were 1.1 deaths per 100 million miles driven.
    http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/ge...state-overview
    Which means the odds of a fatal accident after driving 110 miles is about 1,000,000 to one.
    Meaning the odds of dying in an accident with a Yugo under those circumstances is about 2.5 x 10^11 to one.

    One fatality amongst visitors to Great Smoky Mountains NP and Shenandoah NP (heaviest concentration of black bears in NP on East coast) since 1960.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._North_America

    Recreational visits to each park, since 1960
    https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/SSRSRepor...r%29?Park=SHEN
    on the order of 85 million.
    https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/SSRSRepor...r%29?Park=GRSM
    on the order of 350 million.

    Thus the odds of visiting a place with black bears, and then being killed by one of them, is about 435 million to one.


    Hmmmm. Looks like I'll have to change my statement.

    Either to driving 52,000 miles and getting killed by a Yugo,
    or driving 250 miles and getting killed in an accident involving one of the 250,000 electric cars on the American road.
    http://www.hybridcars.com/global-plu...w-over-600000/

    At least based on order of magnitude estimates.

    Obviously, I've done a lot of assumptions (some not so justified), estimates, rounding off, and quick additions.
    But the basic message is this: if you drive to a place where there's bears, you're in FAR more danger from your driving than from bears.

    Based on what some people fear, it seems they think that, if their death won't be the lead story on the TV news, then they won't die.

  20. #20
    Registered User canoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenBear View Post
    > I'm skeptical of your claim that there is still a drivable Yugo to be found in the US.

    My original work used data from WAY long ago.
    Because I have no life... oh, to heck with it; I'll just redo the data.

    The most recent (2010) information I could find
    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=124631334
    states that there are about 1000 Yugos still on the road.

    That's out of 253 million cars.
    http://www.latimes.com/business/auto...609-story.html
    Meaning the odds that a vehicle accident will involve a Yugo is about 250,000 to one.

    In 2013 there were 1.1 deaths per 100 million miles driven.
    http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/ge...state-overview
    Which means the odds of a fatal accident after driving 110 miles is about 1,000,000 to one.
    Meaning the odds of dying in an accident with a Yugo under those circumstances is about 2.5 x 10^11 to one.

    One fatality amongst visitors to Great Smoky Mountains NP and Shenandoah NP (heaviest concentration of black bears in NP on East coast) since 1960.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._North_America

    Recreational visits to each park, since 1960
    https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/SSRSRepor...r%29?Park=SHEN
    on the order of 85 million.
    https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/SSRSRepor...r%29?Park=GRSM
    on the order of 350 million.

    Thus the odds of visiting a place with black bears, and then being killed by one of them, is about 435 million to one.


    Hmmmm. Looks like I'll have to change my statement.

    Either to driving 52,000 miles and getting killed by a Yugo,
    or driving 250 miles and getting killed in an accident involving one of the 250,000 electric cars on the American road.
    http://www.hybridcars.com/global-plu...w-over-600000/

    At least based on order of magnitude estimates.

    Obviously, I've done a lot of assumptions (some not so justified), estimates, rounding off, and quick additions.
    But the basic message is this: if you drive to a place where there's bears, you're in FAR more danger from your driving than from bears.

    Based on what some people fear, it seems they think that, if their death won't be the lead story on the TV news, then they won't die.
    Dang, there are a lot more killed than I would have thought. Need to stay on my toes when out there

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