Seasonal trail conditions for thru-hikers

[GeekyHiker]

Hi everyone!

I'm working on a spreadsheet of the best and worst times to be on certain parts of the trail so that I can figure out what hike would work out best for me. Hopefully it's something that would be useful to others too! I've been doing a lot of research about temperatures, bugs, mud, etc, but it has been difficult to gather all the information. I have a rough draft below, can you all help me complete it?

Screenshot.png
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Note: I currently have it set with ideal hiking temperature ranging from 45-70F. I can run the script with other values if you'd like to see how it changes.

I have marked the busy NoBo start, VT mud season, New England black fly season, some hunting that I read was a concern, and tentatively marked when I thought the river crossings in Maine would be more difficult. I've also put in rough markers for where NoBo and SoBo could be, along with a flip-flop I'm considering that jumps from Damascus to Maine. Is there some time-dependent challenge I'm missing? Is my weather data not what you'd expect for some portion? When/where do the short-distance hikers swamp the trails? When are your favorite and least favorite times to be out on these segments?

The V-shape for the ideal temperatures is about what I'd expect based on time of year and latitude. The ideal Spring temperatures in the North are spoiled by bugs and mud, though, so early Fall looks like the best time to be there. From what I can tell the NoBo's have to suffer through more heat, while the SoBo's have to deal with more cold unless they can finish quickly.

Any feedback is appreciated - thanks in advance for your help!
-Brad

[JaketheFake]

Brad, by chance could you possibly be over thinking this?

[GeekyHiker]

Hike your own hike, right? This sort of thing isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I'm sure I'm not the only one either. After all, why would alternative hikes like flip-flops be gaining in popularity if people hadn't been doing some thinking and research into what's the right hike for them? I thought I might find some like-minded hikers here.

I'm an engineer and I actually find this kind of thing interesting and fun. If other people find it interesting or useful all the better.

[George]

IMO this is better approached as ideal times for sections, as you have more control over what parts to do at various times of the year - that being said I break up the AT for (reasonably) easy transport:
springer to davenport gap (interstate access and ashville airport) - I like this all winter, Nov through Feb - out of all the AT it is the easiest/ most practical for winter hiking
davenport gap to HF (amtrack access is sweet) April/May - beat the crowds/heat/ bugs, Laurel blooms
HF to Pawling NY (commuter train to NYC ) - my least favorite part, any time of year
Pawling to Gorham NH - it would be hard to beat Sept - early Oct / fall colors
Gorham to BSP (concord trailways to Boston Logan at each end is about as good as can be done) -august is ideal,then 2 weeks before/after

so to put it together in 1 year:
start mid Feb Springer to Pawling in mid/ end of May - take off 2 months - start at BSP in Aug, finish at Pawling in OCT
this would be a plan for pretty reasonable transportation at all legs

also enjoy hiking in every season, some variety of solitude/ company, minimal heat/ bugs/ mud conditions

[George]

ok , so after I did my plan/ post I ran it on your chart - almost ideal, only negative box it hits is the Nobo bubble in Maine, which by that time is depleted/ dispersed to be inconsequential

I like the scarcity of the ideal temp boxes - the temp for hiking is almost alway too hot, too cold or both in the same day

[4eyedbuzzard]

Well, as you chart points out, there exist some pretty definitive overall 6 month windows for a contiguous thru-hike that have been well known for decades: April to October NOBO, and July to December SOBO are historically the chosen times. But your chart doesn't take into account a lot of other variables. For example, while average temperatures in ME may be okay in late May, I think you've underestimated the effect of spring melt on stream fords, the fly hatch, and condition of the trail as maintenance crews likely would just be getting out. Some years you might get away with it, but most people would advise against planning a SOBO start much sooner than mid-June.

Your data for mile 1800 NH shows that it is warmer June to Sept than mile 1700 VT/NH. Mile 1700-1800 data is roughly Rutland, VT, to Glencliff, NH. Mile 1800-1900 roughly Glencliff to Gorham, NH. There is just no way the temperatures experienced on the trail are warmer in the section through the Whites than they are in section from Maine Junction to Glencliff at the same time. Somewhere, I think your raw data may be off.

While on the subject of temperatures, I would have to question: How recent is your data and what is the span/number of years covered? What locations are your data coming from? Are you using mean(average) or median temperatures? What is the nature of your data - daily high/lows, monthly, etc? Have you corrected for elevation if data taken nearby is not representative of the trail elevation?

I also think your chart omits how great an affect rain and humidity can have on hiking conditions as they relate to temperatures. This especially affects planning section hikes more IMO, as thru-hikers have much less choice in what they will experience. Your ideal temp range of 45° - 70°F is great under dry conditions. I don't know how you would work precipitation and relative humidity into the chart, but if you're a tech person, then you already understand the concept of thermal comfort zone and how this all factors in. And as you're also a hiker, you also understand the comfort level (lack thereof) of hiking for days in a cold rain, or heat and high humidity.

That all said, I'm just throwing out ideas and a mild critique. I think it's an interesting data set. If you haven't checked out many of the alternative itineraries of AT hikes, check them out here. I especially like "Cool Breeze's" alternate itinerary toward the bottom of the following linked page, which was designed around hiking the trail under the best possible combination of weather conditions http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home...ng/alternative


Now if we could only figure out a way to hike everywhere in perfect fall weather . . .

[Kjp]

I'm working on a spreadsheet of the best and worst times to be on certain parts of the trail so that I can figure out what hike would work out best for me. Hopefully it's something that would be useful to others too! I've been doing a lot of research about temperatures, bugs, mud, etc, but it has been difficult to gather all the information. I have a rough draft below, can you all help me complete it?

GeekyHiker

THANK YOU for putting these charts together. I am very interested in an alternative hike and this data will help me to build my plan. I don't have enough experience with the trail to help with the specific questions in your post, "When/where do short-distance hikers swap the trails? etc" Thanks again for the data.

K

[GeekyHiker]

George: Thanks for the suggestion! It'll make a copy of my spreadsheet to take a look at that hike more closely.

Buzzard: The actual linked google spreadsheet has more info than the screenshot, including the data that the chart is based on. My data comes from 31 weather stations within 20 miles of the trail. I have data on the min, max, and avg temps, and precipitation at each station, that I have averaged from 2000-2014. I'm using 3.5 degrees per 1000' as the temperature adjustment for elevation differences between the stations and the trail. I might need to bump that up. I only have one station near the trail in NH and it is 2200' different in elevation so my temperature adjustment is probably not aggressive enough, causing that unusual warmth in the chart.

I have swollen rivers and flies already on there - are you saying that those cover a larger span of time than I've marked? The coloring is only for temperatures; even though it is ideal temperature in ME in May the flies rule it out as a good time to go. I may make a new version of the sheet that makes it more clear how all the different factors come together. I have precipitation data, but I haven't factored that in yet. I don't have humidity info, I'd need to find another source to get that. My brother is working on a GIS master's degree, I might be able to convince him to get me some better data.

Kjp: You're very welcome! I'm glad you find it useful. Let me know if you think of anything that would make it more useful or easier to use and I'll see what I can do.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Hi everyone!

I'm working on a spreadsheet of the best and worst times to be on certain parts of the trail so that I can figure out what hike would work out best for me. Hopefully it's something that would be useful to others too! I've been doing a lot of research about temperatures, bugs, mud, etc, but it has been difficult to gather all the information. I have a rough draft below, can you all help me complete it?

Screenshot.png
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Note: I currently have it set with ideal hiking temperature ranging from 45-70F. I can run the script with other values if you'd like to see how it changes.

I have marked the busy NoBo start, VT mud season, New England black fly season, some hunting that I read was a concern, and tentatively marked when I thought the river crossings in Maine would be more difficult. I've also put in rough markers for where NoBo and SoBo could be, along with a flip-flop I'm considering that jumps from Damascus to Maine. Is there some time-dependent challenge I'm missing? Is my weather data not what you'd expect for some portion? When/where do the short-distance hikers swamp the trails? When are your favorite and least favorite times to be out on these segments?

The V-shape for the ideal temperatures is about what I'd expect based on time of year and latitude. The ideal Spring temperatures in the North are spoiled by bugs and mud, though, so early Fall looks like the best time to be there. From what I can tell the NoBo's have to suffer through more heat, while the SoBo's have to deal with more cold unless they can finish quickly.

Any feedback is appreciated - thanks in advance for your help!
-Brad

GeekyHiker

THANK YOU for putting these charts together. I am very interested in an alternative hike and this data will help me to build my plan. I don't have enough experience with the trail to help with the specific questions in your post, "When/where do short-distance hikers swap the trails? etc" Thanks again for the data.

K

I don't know if this web archive of a temperature chart that ATC used to have on their site would be of any help to either of you for research or planning, but here it is http://web.archive.org/web/200504091...plan/temp.html

[Datto]

I started my AT northbound thru-hike on April 10th and finished October 21st. That's way too late of a finish (I was lucky to get through the streams in Maine and then ran into a blizzard that I had to hunker down through for a 3.5 days -- I didn't have many bugs in Maine though but I did carry Deet to Katahdin). With a northbound AT thru-hike you would want to finish your thru-hike by October 1st or earlier.

As far as April 10th as a start date for a northbound AT thru-hike, that was ideal for me. I missed much of the winter weather and had more blue sky days than I had expected. Still, there were many, many days of rain, much of those in a row. I had a few days of snow to hike through but those weren't that bad for me (being from northern Indiana I had winter hiked and camped for days in a row during preparation for my AT thru-hike).

As far as bugs, I had massive gnats in North Carolina (all over) and Virginia (from Rockfish Gap/Wayesboro south). I had serious mosquitos in New Jersey and Connecticut (enough so that I had to wear a head-to-waist bug top as well as the no-see-um headnet that I too with me from the start at Springer Mountain, GA). Another thru-hiker wanted to buy my headnet from me for $30 in Virginia because he had become so berzerk with the gnats -- I had a spare that I was carrying and gave the spare headnet to him. I told hm the no-see-um headnet would raise the temps around his face by 5-10*F at the benefit of not having the gnats be so annoying -- he didn't care about the temp raise. When it's already 100*F in Virginia, that extra 5-10*F temperature increase from the headnet can seem severe and it was a big deal for me in Virginia. I had to remove the headnet periodically (and deal with the gnats covering my face) because the higher temps were making my mind swirl.


Datto

[GeekyHiker]

Wow, Datto, it sounds like you had more bug problems than anyone else I've heard from so far. How did you finish on Oct 21? I thought Baxter closed on the 15th?

To incorporate your info I need to have an idea of when you had these issues - I've estimated based on your start/end dates:

NC in May (gnats)
Southern VA in June (high temps + gnats)
NJ in August (mosquitoes)
CT in early September (mosquitoes)

Is that about right?

[GeekyHiker]

ok , so after I did my plan/ post I ran it on your chart - almost ideal, only negative box it hits is the Nobo bubble in Maine, which by that time is depleted/ dispersed to be inconsequential

I like the scarcity of the ideal temp boxes - the temp for hiking is almost alway too hot, too cold or both in the same day

I've been working on the next version of the sheet. I tried out your suggested route and it was almost ideal, like you said! According to this it would be a bit cold in GA, you'd have a bit too much precipitation in part of NC/TN, it would be kind of hot in NY, and there would be a little more precipitation in VT/CT/MA.

Screenshot2.png

This one summarizes the effects of temperature, precipitation, crowds, mud, bugs, and swollen rivers into a single chart. I'm not ready to give the link out for this sheet yet, but it's coming along. It's quite a bit more configurable, which has made it much more complex.

[Datto]

Wow, Datto, it sounds like you had more bug problems than anyone else I've heard from so far. How did you finish on Oct 21? I thought Baxter closed on the 15th?

When I came through Maine in Year 2000 there wasn't a closing of Baxter -- October 15th was just a suggestion. Good thing for me.

To incorporate your info I need to have an idea of when you had these issues - I've estimated based on your start/end dates:

NC in May (gnats)
Southern VA in June (high temps + gnats)
NJ in August (mosquitoes)
CT in early September (mosquitoes)

Is that about right?

Gnats -- The southern North Carolina line to Rockfish Gap/Waynesboro, VA for me was April 18th to June 24th -- that's where I had gnat problems
Excessive Heat -- I crossed the Virginia southern line and entered Damascus, VA on May 21st and I'd estimate the really bad heat for me started May 26th and went all the way through Connecticut (August 20th)
Mosquitos -- New Jersey (and the New Jersey swamps) for me was July 31st to August 5th
Mosquitos -- Connecticut for me was about August 14th to August 20th

My AT thru-hike journal was written daily while I was on the Trail and the start of my AT journal it's located here:

http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=162039



Datto

[BillyGr]

When I came through Maine in Year 2000 there wasn't a closing of Baxter -- October 15th was just a suggestion. Good thing for me.

Did you stay in the park? I thought the Oct 15th thing was a camping closure, not the park in general?