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  1. #21
    Registered User canoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdoczi View Post
    you live in a state of over 3 million people where in 2014, 2360 of those people had confirmed or probable cases of lyme. lets see, thats .78% of the population who contracted an easily curable deive. sorry, i have much better things to worry about than that. good for any of you who's life is so devoid of any real concern that that is what you worry about.
    Man get with the program. 3mil are not hiking the trail. So I don't think you can use your stats the way you are using them.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by canoe View Post
    Man get with the program. 3mil are not hiking the trail. So I don't think you can use your stats the way you are using them.

    they arent **MY** stats. they are the Center for Disease Control's stats.

    if someone has stats for how many people hike the AT north of the mason dixon line and how many of those people get confirmed cases of lyme while hiking, id love to hear them. if it were 5% of AT hikers i'd be shocked, and even at a 5% i cant bring myself to worry about it in the least.

  3. #23

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    There are 30,000 deaths each year from car accidents.

    We do not consider that rare. In fact, we take every precaution we do not get killed in a car accident: we have traffic signs, stoplights, caution lights, road signs, seat belts, non-shattering windshield glass, standards for headlights, tires, etc. and etc.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdoczi View Post
    you live in a state of over 3 million people where in 2014, 2360 of those people had confirmed or probable cases of lyme. lets see, thats .78% of the population who contracted an easily curable deive. sorry, i have much better things to worry about than that. good for any of you who's life is so devoid of any real concern that that is what you worry about.
    You understand the concept of conditional risk, correct? To say only "x" number of people are infected is irrelevant when only a small percentage of the population is routinely exposed. I could tell you that less than 100 Americans die from lightning strikes each year, but that doesn't make hiking above treeline in a thunderstorm any safer.

    Most of my state lives in cities where there exposure to ticks hovers around zero, and most of those who live in the suburbs are fat and lazy and won't come in contact with a tick unless it is between their front door and their mailbox. Those of us who actually spend time in the woods are exponentially more at risk and given that people hiking the A.T. in southern New England are commonly bitten by deer ticks this is a very real concern. It's a horrible crappy disease which you clearly haven't experienced and it's sad to see you trying to downplay it by lying with statistics.

    Also, Lyme is not easily "curable" as you put it. If caught early then treatment with antibiotics is highly effective (the antibiotics themselves are loaded with side effects and suck to take), however if the disease is left undiagnosed it does lasting damage that is not reversed by treatment. Taking basic precautions such as permethrin treated pants and daily checks can prevent a lot of misery. Further every hiker should be familiar with both of the bullseye rash that accompanies some but not most infections as well as to know that if they are hit with sudden flu symptoms accompanied by joint pain then they need to get seen by a doctor quickly and tested.
    Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

  5. #25

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    tdoczi,

    I will say it:

    We have dear friends, members in this forum, who have tragic circumstances in their lives right in line with your line of thinking.. please refrain from promoting your point-of-view in a thru-hike long trail backpacking forum, where people have more exposure than most.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarcasm the elf View Post
    You understand the concept of conditional risk, correct? To say only "x" number of people are infected is irrelevant when only a small percentage of the population is routinely exposed. I could tell you that less than 100 Americans die from lightning strikes each year, but that doesn't make hiking above treeline in a thunderstorm any safer.

    Most of my state lives in cities where there exposure to ticks hovers around zero, and most of those who live in the suburbs are fat and lazy and won't come in contact with a tick unless it is between their front door and their mailbox. Those of us who actually spend time in the woods are exponentially more at risk and given that people hiking the A.T. in southern New England are commonly bitten by deer ticks this is a very real concern. It's a horrible crappy disease which you clearly haven't experienced and it's sad to see you trying to downplay it by lying with statistics.

    Also, Lyme is not easily "curable" as you put it. If caught early then treatment with antibiotics is highly effective (the antibiotics themselves are loaded with side effects and suck to take), however if the disease is left undiagnosed it does lasting damage that is not reversed by treatment. Taking basic precautions such as permethrin treated pants and daily checks can prevent a lot of misery. Further every hiker should be familiar with both of the bullseye rash that accompanies some but not most infections as well as to know that if they are hit with sudden flu symptoms accompanied by joint pain then they need to get seen by a doctor quickly and tested.
    knock yourself out, i'm not sweating it.

    again, anyone who has actual statistics related to prevalence among people who hike i'd seriously love to hear them. hearsay and fear spreading doesnt interest me.

    lets say every last case in CT in 2014 was contracted by people hiking. how many people do you think went hiking in the state of CT in 2014? give me your best guess

  7. #27

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    There is nothing wrong with precautions, or with prudence.

    I didn't see any fearmongering. I do see callousness.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Connie View Post
    tdoczi,

    I will say it:

    We have dear friends, members in this forum, who have tragic circumstances in their lives right in line with your line of thinking.. please refrain from promoting your point-of-view in a thru-hike long trail backpacking forum, where people have more exposure than most.
    my "point of view" is nothing more than statistics and my own personal response to them. the OP asked a question, he is getting a counter viewpoint. he will then make up his own mind on how he wants to proceed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Connie View Post
    There is nothing wrong with precautions, or with prudence.
    not always true. are you not aware of the ramifications of reckless overuse of antibiotics, and that some people in the hiking community carry the antibiotics for lyme disease with them in case of tick byte?

  10. #30

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    Really? I am a vet.

    There is "no way" I could get the VA to hand out antibiotics, and my private MD would never do it either.

    The fact is, hikers are atypical for the amount of exposure to ticks and thru-hikers more atypical.

    I would say that increases your chance of getting an infected tick and that statistic would be more than a random chance of death by car accident, much more so, of injury by car accident, because of the sample size: nearly every adult drives a car but hikers are a smaller sample and hikers have more exposure than the general public.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Mike View Post
    According to the CDC, there were 33,451 confirmed and probable Lyme cases in 2014. www.cdc.gov/lyme/stats/chartstables/reportedcases_statelocality.html.

    For perspective, that is a little more than the NHTSA's estimated number (32,000 plus change) of highway fatalities in 2014.

    Of course, it depends where you are. California had 73 cases. Connecticut had 2360.

    Hike your own hike, but as for me, it's Insect Shield from hat to long-sleeve shirt to long pants to socks.
    Since you mention the CDC, their actual estimation is 300,000 cases per year:

    http://www.cdc.gov/lyme/stats/humancases.html

    To improve public health, CDC wants to know how many people are actually diagnosed with Lyme disease each year and for this reason has conducted two studies:


    Results of these studies suggest that the number of people diagnosed with Lyme disease each year in the United States is around 300,000. Notably, these estimates do not affect our understanding of the geographic distribution of Lyme disease. Lyme disease cases are concentrated in the Northeast and upper Midwest, with 14 states accounting for over 96% of cases reported to CDC. The results obtained using the new estimation methods mirror the geographic distribution of cases that is shown by national surveillance.
    Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Connie View Post
    Really? I am a vet.

    There is "no way" I could get the VA to hand out antibiotics, and my private MD would never do it either.

    The fact is, hikers are atypical for the amount of exposure to ticks and thru-hikers more atypical.

    I would say that increases your chance of getting an infected tick and that statistic would be more than a random chance of death by car accident, much more so, of injury by car accident, because of the sample size: nearly every adult drives a car but hikers are a smaller sample and hikers have more exposure than the general public.

    yes, really. look around these boards you will see ample reference to it.

    for sake of argument, lets say youre right, that i have a better chance of getting infected by a tick than dying in a car accident. are you saying infection with lyme disease is in some way even remotely equivalent to death in a car accident? seriously? i'm sorry, its overwhelmingly a curable, flu-like disease. can it have long term consequences that are very unpleasant? sure, but now we're talking about something even rarer. i dont have stats for it, but out of those 2000 some odd cases, how many do you think show long term effects? even if it is half (it isnt, not even close) now we are down to 1000.

  13. #33
    Registered User soilman's Avatar
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    Do a google search of Appalachian Trail Conservancy lyme disease and you will find some good information including a study done along the AT. https://www.lymedisease.org/lyme-app...-trail-ford-2/
    More walking, less talking.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarcasm the elf View Post
    Since you mention the CDC, their actual estimation is 300,000 cases per year:

    http://www.cdc.gov/lyme/stats/humancases.html
    300,000? all hikers?

    but in all seriousness, ok, lets look at 300,000 cases. lets limit it to the populations of NJ, NY, CT, MA, VT, NH, and ME. thats 300,000 out of of about 29 million by my rough estimate.

    do people get lyme disease? obviously. its real, it exists. is it more common among people who actually go outside? absolutely. but that said, as someone else in this board has pointed out, outside can be in your backyard just as easily as in the woods. the truth is the odds are against you getting it. further, if you do happen to get it, in all likelihood you re going to take a course of antibiotics, be cured, and get on with your life without any repercussions. are there some unfortunate cases in which things dont go quite so smoothly? of course there are. but now we're down in an extremely low percentage. thats not to say it doesnt happen, but i just question the wisdom of whether or not its really something to worry about.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by soilman View Post
    Do a google search of Appalachian Trail Conservancy lyme disease and you will find some good information including a study done along the AT. https://www.lymedisease.org/lyme-app...-trail-ford-2/
    odd that this study seems to have included (i could be wrong, but im fairly sure im not) collection of ticks that dont carry lyme disease, and that there is no mention of how many collected ticks actually were carrying lyme. did he not test them? seems silly to have not done so.

  16. #36
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    I went to my Dr a month ago or so. I'm 62. He crunched some numbers into a formula, he told me my 10 year risk of a heart attack was 12%. I did not yell at him to prove his formula. I asked him if I could cut the risk in 1/2. He said no. maybe to 7% I asked him what do I need to do. I've been trying to do that stuff. And yea I feel better too.
    Until the big red S appears on your chest on it's own. I'm not going to believe you're Superman.
    Seriously, I wish you a long happy life. But you have to change your attitude for that to happen.
    Peace and prosperity to you.

  17. #37
    Registered User canoe's Avatar
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    Forget the screwball, he's gotta be trolling.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdoczi View Post
    not sure whether you're referring to untreated acute lyme or whats commonly known as "chronic" lyme disease.

    as for size. an adult female is less than 1/4" in size. and its common thinking that lyme disease is typically spread by the much smaller larval ticks.

    i hike in shorts and short sleeves and walk through tall grasses without batting an eye. percentage wise, to me, its just not even close to worth worrying about.
    If you don't know the difference between acute and long term consequences we can go there, but it might be easier if you go to your local kindergarten teacher and ask her to explain it to you.

  19. #39
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    Tdoczi,

    We arent running around our homes in a panic like our hair is on fire. but completely blowing it off is just foolish. Im confused as to why you are even present in this thread. The OP asked for lyme disease issues, not how much you dont care about your health.

  20. #40

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    If someone does not feel the risk of contracting Lyme disease is high or the consequences of failure when you do contract the disease is low, then there is really no need to minimize exposure. Others may feel mitigation is a better route and should take any precautions they feel are appropriate. This would be similar to treating/filtering water.

    Seems more like a silly conversation in search of an argument.

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