Karl Meltzer, 2016 AT record attempt

[Odd Man Out]

Odd Man Out..
Thanks for doing all the math on the spread sheet.

Love Hanover. Wish my hometown had a CoOp to shop at. Even if there selection of pop tarts was rather lacking.

We shopped at the Co-op to get the ingredients for Turkmen palaw. They had a shelf marked "hiker suppliers" but there wasn't much on it. But it is a nice grocery store for resupply except at Hanover prices. I was pumping gas as the gas station and noticed someone put a cardboard sign on a stick to point hikers in the right direction.

[Water Rat]

Who knows, maybe I jump the gun, and a book, a report, a something is coming.
Maybe I forget my own words and if the hike was truly more important than the numbers maybe I shouldn't care at all.

A while back, Anish did mention (I think it was last winter, on Facebook) she was working on a book. I don't know if it was a book that covers her PCT hike, AT hike, or both. Perhaps she is planning on releasing information with the publishing of that book? It has been a bit since she last mentioned the book to her audience, but she has also been out having many other adventures. Maybe she plans on writing the book during winter when she isn't outdoors quite as much.

[JEBjr]

Day 17 he is South of the Dover Oak. Seems to be sleeping more than I recall Jurek sleeping at the later parts of his hike when I was following it closely.

[lemon b]

Is a shame that the discussion sometimes focuses on tracking the hiker. We all know the trail changes each year for various reasons. We should also all know that electronics is not perfect and is subject to human error and sadly manipulation. All comes down to self-respect, honesty, and honor. My feeling is that anyone who puts in the work to reach the mental and physical state to undertake such a mind boggling endeavor is the type of individual who has self respect, honesty, and honor. Enjoy following these individuals. Let them Hike there own hike. No need for us to ruin things by having our eyes up their behind the whole way.

[TJ aka Teej]

Is a shame that the discussion sometimes focuses on tracking the hiker.

The tracking device was one of Jurek's sponsors, and tracking him was encouraged as a demonstration of the product.
I tuned in late, around Hanover I think, and was completely unimpressed with both the gadget and how his team was using it.

No need for us to ruin things by having our eyes up their behind the whole way.

Do you believe the folks putting on these Hey Watch Me! events are "ruining things" by inviting folks to have their eyes on them the whole way?

[MuddyWaters]

Is a shame that the discussion sometimes focuses on tracking the hiker. We all know the trail changes each year for various reasons. We should also all know that electronics is not perfect and is subject to human error and sadly manipulation. All comes down to self-respect, honesty, and honor. My feeling is that anyone who puts in the work to reach the mental and physical state to undertake such a mind boggling endeavor is the type of individual who has self respect, honesty, and honor. Enjoy following these individuals. Let them Hike there own hike. No need for us to ruin things by having our eyes up their behind the whole way.

I agree.
For the most part, there's two kinds of attempters
Very respected people with resumes, and dreamer/fools.
The latter is actually funner to watch.

I helped crew a fkt attempt once. I was basically only there to keep real crew member company and hike to location I could text other coordinating party from if needed. But...I saw first hand the problem that inaccurate spot track creates for everyone involved.

[Odd Man Out]

FYI, this is what my spreadsheet has for his daily targets. The locations are not necessarily logical stopping points. I just took the closest location from the THG for reference.

Day	Adjusted Jurek MPD	Target Total Miles	Target Location
0	0.0	0.0	Katahdin ME
1	46.4	46.4	Pemadumcook Lake ME
2	49.5	95.9	Barren Mountain ME
3	46.6	142.5	Pleasant Pond Mtn ME
4	43.2	185.7	Cranberry Stream Camp ME
5	43.9	229.6	Sabbath Day Pond Lean-to ME
6	35.8	265.4	Grafton Notch ME
7	29.7	295.1	Mt. Hayes NH
8	31.4	326.5	Mt. Madison NH
9	25.5	352.0	Zeacliff Trail NH
10	38.0	390.1	Beaver Brook Cascades NH
11	47.4	437.5	Trescott Road NH
12	49.0	486.5	Sherburne Pass Trail VT
13	50.1	536.5	Manchester Center VT
14	48.3	584.8	Roaring Branch VT
15	49.7	634.5	Finerty Pond MA
16	50.5	685.1	Brassie Brook Shelter CT
17	49.9	734.9	Leather Hill Road NY
18	50.9	785.8	Bear Mountain Inn NY
19	48.4	834.2	Glenwood NJ
20	54.5	888.7	Camp Road NJ
21	50.8	939.5	Bake Oven Knob PA
22	49.4	988.9	Shuberts Gap PA
23	56.4	1045.3	Cove Mountain Shelter PA
24	56.2	1101.5	Stillhouse Road PA
25	51.6	1153.1	White Rocks Cliff MD
26	54.3	1207.4	Manassas Gap Shelter VA
27	55.3	1262.7	Fishers Gap VA
28	52.0	1314.7	Turk Gap VA
29	49.5	1364.2	Cash Hollow Rock VA
30	49.7	1413.9	Petites Gap VA
31	48.9	1462.8	Tinker Creek VA
32	46.7	1509.6	Sarver Hollow Shelter VA
33	49.4	1559.0	Pearis Mountain VA
34	49.6	1608.6	Brushy Mountain VA
35	50.5	1659.1	Partnership Shelter VA
36	45.2	1704.3	Grassy Ridge Road VA
37	47.0	1751.3	Vandeventer Shelter TN
38	43.7	1795.0	Bear Branch Road TN
39	37.3	1832.4	Unaka Mountain TN
40	34.2	1866.6	Low Gap NC
41	43.5	1910.0	Tanyard Gap NC
42	51.6	1961.7	Snake Den Ridge Trail NC
43	50.4	2012.1	Mollies Ridge Shelter NC
44	51.0	2063.1	Copper Ridge Bald NC
45	52.8	2115.9	Bull Gap GA
46	53.0	2168.9	Ramrock Mountain GA
46.38	20.2	2189.1	Springer Mountain GA

[Odd Man Out]

And his progress to date:

Day	Adjusted Jurek MPD	Target Total Miles	Actual Total Miles	Deviation From Pace	Actual Location	Miles from Springer
0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	Katahdin	2189.2
1	46.4	46.4			Maine
2	49.5	95.9			Maine
3	46.6	142.5	151.5	9.00	Kennebec River	2037.7
4	43.2	185.7			Maine
5	43.9	229.6			Maine
6	35.8	265.4	267.2	1.80	Grafton Notch	1922.0
7	29.7	295.1	298.3	3.23	Gorham	1890.9
8	31.4	326.5	345.4	18.89	Crawford Notch	1843.8
9	25.5	352.0	373.1	21.06	Flume Gorge	1816.1
10	38.0	390.1			New Hampshire
11	47.4	437.5			Vermont
12	49.0	486.5	512.0	25.55	Wallingford	1677.2
13	50.1	536.5	555.6	19.06	Stratton	1633.6
14	48.3	584.8	602.9	18.07	Mt Greylock	1586.3
15	49.7	634.5	654.1	19.56	Beartown Mtn Rd	1535.1
16	50.5	685.1			Connecticut
17	49.9	734.9	750.3	15.38	Depot Hill Rd	1438.9

[Odd Man Out]

Or if you like a graph. For the missing days I do a linear extrapolation between known points.

Capture.JPG

[Engine]

Thanks for sharing the results of all the effort. It helps to have a visual when comparing efforts.

[Just Bill]

Or if you like a graph. For the missing days I do a linear extrapolation between known points.

Capture.JPG

Uh-oh, no room on that graph for a negative value on the Y Axis...
Poor Karl is out already?

He's definitely going to need a linear extrapolation or two between upcoming known points for sure to pull it off.

[brianober]

Can anybody help me sync the day numbers to actual dates? For instance is "Day 18" yesterday, Aug 21? Or do you think the trail journal entries on the Red Bull site might be delayed - perhaps to throw people off. I'm a little surprised very few if any of the people on this thread have actually seen him on the trail recently. In any case, I'd like to cheer him on the day he comes through my neck of the woods - if I can figure it out.

[Angle]

Can anybody help me sync the day numbers to actual dates? For instance is "Day 18" yesterday, Aug 21? Or do you think the trail journal entries on the Red Bull site might be delayed - perhaps to throw people off. I'm a little surprised very few if any of the people on this thread have actually seen him on the trail recently. In any case, I'd like to cheer him on the day he comes through my neck of the woods - if I can figure it out.

He started on the 3rd, so tomorrow will be day 21. I saw him in NJ yesterday. Add around 48-50 miles per day to his latest post and you will have a pretty good guess as to his location. Iceman

[Odd Man Out]

BTW, I found you can use this URL to read his daily updates without having to go through that annoying high bandwidth web site:

http://view.ceros.com/redbull/notes-...e-trail/1/p/17

Change the last number to go right to any day you want.

[Odd Man Out]

Uh-oh, no room on that graph for a negative value on the Y Axis...
Poor Karl is out already?

He's definitely going to need a linear extrapolation or two between upcoming known points for sure to pull it off.

No positive numbers means he is ahead of schedule. I'll change the scale for negative numbers if he falls behind.

[JEBjr]

Anybody following this lady's hike?
http://www.hikeforourlives.org/#!mission/ceu8

I met her friend while hiking between Hanover and Rutland and have been following their Instagram accounts for updates. She is moving along pretty fast.

[Just Bill]

No positive numbers means he is ahead of schedule. I'll change the scale for negative numbers if he falls behind.

oh my... I just did a quick check against linear and saw he was behind and assumed you found the same. Not so!
DOH! I should know better, lol.

Excuse the sloppiness and quick spin through via the online version of excel... (not sure about day 18 miles and trying to float in 19/20 didn't seem to work)
Karl, Jen, Linear.pdf

I pulled up Jen's hike (better baseline I think and we can toss the three hour difference between her and Scott for a spreadsheet) Pretty sure that's the hike he's been pacing himself against as well.
Also saves all the flipping of Scott's hike which is where I assumed was tossing your sheet off a bit. He was pretty erratic (for him) at the beginning with his injury and towards the end.

Anywho- If I float in a few days as you did to fill his out and go
Against the linear pace- he's about a day behind.
However in the much more realistic against JPD- he's a full day ahead!

That "day" was the one he identified as the one critical spot he identified as possible through days 1-15 to improve on Jen's hike.
That takes the edge of some of her monster days on the final half that he didn't think he could better.

Fantastic news for Karl! We've got a race for sure.

[CalebJ]

So he spent Saturday night (8/20) at Arden Valley Road, 805.3. Anybody know the stats for Sunday and Monday yet?

[Odd Man Out]

I pulled up Jen's hike (better baseline I think and we can toss the three hour difference between her and Scott for a spreadsheet) Pretty sure that's the hike he's been pacing himself against as well.

Do you have a link for Jen's data. It would be easy to clone my spreadsheet to use her data. Against Scott, he can make up ground after VA. That is where Scott struggled. Until then he will be doing well to just stay even.

So he spent Saturday night (8/20) at Arden Valley Road, 805.3. Anybody know the stats for Sunday and Monday yet?

I have Arden Valley Rd at the end of day 18 based on the "nearly 55 miles" comment which is +19.3 on Scott. I have nothing after that other than he made it to somewhere in NJ on day 19. I choose to only use info that is publicly shared on Karl's site.

[Angle]

So he spent Saturday night (8/20) at Arden Valley Road, 805.3. Anybody know the stats for Sunday and Monday yet?

Where did you find out that he was at mile 805.3 Sat. night? Eric had said at Arden Valley Rd., but I wasn't sure if at mile 805.3 or 800.3.