Colorado snowpack

[archie]

My 2016 CT hike might be evaporating in front of my eyes. 3 of my nieces and nephews have decided to get married this summer, at the worst times. July23, Aug.27 and Sept 17.

My options look to be finish before July 23 or squeeze it in between july23 and aug 27.

I would prefer earlier if possible, so naturally I am wondering how the snowpack is looking now, knowing full well that the conditions on Feb 6 have little to do with when the trail will be passable.

Just looking for hope I guess!

[HeartFire]

Colorado Trail Segment 22

February 3 at 5:58pm ·





The snow in the San Juan Mountains is now WELL above average with Red Mountain Pass and Beartown SNOTEL sites at 6 feet. Anyone planning on thru hiking the San Juan's this May or June in Colorado -- you have been warned!
The snow in the San Juan Mountains is now WELL above average with Red Mountain Pass and Beartown SNOTEL sites at 6 feet. Anyone planning on thru hiking the San Juan's this May or June in Colorado -- you have been warned!

I copied this from facebook. The earliest starts are July 1 and it looks like that may be early. You could do it between July 23 - Aug 27. It took me 35 days, a lot of people go faster.

[garlic08]

I've long held that you will never have time for a thru-hike--you have to make time for a thru hike. Can you imagine having over a month with nothing planned? I wouldn't want that life. You will always miss something if you make the commitment for a long hike.

As far as weddings go, I've missed some pretty important ones while hiking and at other times in my life (I have eight siblings and nearly thirty nieces and nephews!). And you know what? The betrothed still got married and they somehow managed to enjoy the day without me. I would hazard a guess that they probably didn't even notice I wasn't there, you know?

And you will provide a good story, maybe even some dreams, at the wedding. "Uncle Archie is out hiking 500 miles in the Rockies. How cool is that?" You can be the mysterious, adventurous guy who's not always where he should be--every family needs one.

[HooKooDooKu]

I'm planning a hike of the JMT this summer and I've already seen a lot of what I would call online fear mongering. If you have seen "Mile... Mile & a Half", they were doing a JMT hike the year of a 200% snow pack. While they did face some difficulties, they managed a mid-July trip without any special gear. So far, this year has been trending at a 110% - 120% snow year. Obviously a bunch of storms could happen and a lot more snow than the typical "trend" might fall. But at this point so early in the year, I would only use the snow reports/warnings as a key that I should plan a later hike in the year than an early one.

[colorado_rob]

Well, it will be well into July when you hit the San Juans, assuming you're going SWBO and starting in mid-June, so that FB statement is really not applicable.

Here's a good snowpack site, my favorite:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/...=6&monthPart=E

The first thing you see is that Yay, verily, we're at 100-140% or so of average. But play around with it. For example, look at June 2015; it ran 200% or so of average, yet tons of folks successfully completed the CT starting in mid June last year. As Hookoodooku says, lots of fear mongering abounds for potential thru hikers, most of which just simply messes up completely successful hikes because folks are afraid of a little annoying leftover snow.

June through mid-July is easily my favorite time of year in CO, usually fairly stable weather, infinite daylight, distant snowcapped peaks, glorious! I'd make a plan to just do it, starting around mid-June, giving you 5 weeks or more before your July 23 deadline.

That being said, what really counts is the snow we get in March and April (and even May), our snowiest months. If we have epic snowfall those two months, it will interfere with your progress when you hit mile 80 or so. Your first 80 miles will be essentially snow free, at least. Need some snowshoes? I have an extra pair I could loan you, some old MSR Denali classics. Let me know. Many times if you hit the trail at first light, the old deep snow is firm enough to support you even w/o snowshoes.

I say go for it in mid-June, or at least, plan for it. SW airlines has direct flights from MSP and a no-change-fee policy, you could always make a call in May or so and skip forward to your later window.

[colorado_rob]

Woops, that snow link is already set to June 2015, here's the current Feb 2016 showing the 100-140% or so:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/...=6&monthPart=E

[San Juan Ron]

The past two years, the earliest that you could "reasonably" get through Segment 7 (near the crest of Tenmile Range) and Segment 8 (Searle and Kokomo Pass areas) was around July 1. The Fremont Pass SNOTEL is a good indicator for these areas. Once the Fremont Pass SNOTEL site zeroes out, it typically is passable within a week although there will still be some snow to maneuver through. http://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=485

I went through in 2014 on July 3rd and the north side of 7-8.0 was the biggest challenge. Segment 8-9.0-14.0 was also challenging due to the snow. After that you should be okay. Keep watching the SNOTEL sites as March and April are the key months.

[colorado_rob]

The past two years, the earliest that you could "reasonably" get through Segment 7 (near the crest of Tenmile Range) and Segment 8 (Searle and Kokomo Pass areas) was around July 1. The Fremont Pass SNOTEL is a good indicator for these areas. Once the Fremont Pass SNOTEL site zeroes out, it typically is passable within a week although there will still be some snow to maneuver through. http://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=485

I went through in 2014 on July 3rd and the north side of 7-8.0 was the biggest challenge. Segment 8-9.0-14.0 was also challenging due to the snow. After that you should be okay. Keep watching the SNOTEL sites as March and April are the key months.

Excellent info, but definitions of "reasonably" vary widely, as last year this test would have failed, yet plenty of people got past this area just fine. Go for it, unless March/April yield epic snowfalls. And again, there is always the snowshoe option for a section or two. Mail them to Breckenridge, then back from Twin lakes or wherever. 4 pounds weight, equivalent to about 2 quarts of water and you can carry less water in these snowy sections. I just hate to see anyone not try a CO thru starting mid-June because of snow phobias.

[StubbleJumper]

My 2016 CT hike might be evaporating in front of my eyes. 3 of my nieces and nephews have decided to get married this summer, at the worst times. July23, Aug.27 and Sept 17.

My options look to be finish before July 23 or squeeze it in between july23 and aug 27.

I would prefer earlier if possible, so naturally I am wondering how the snowpack is looking now, knowing full well that the conditions on Feb 6 have little to do with when the trail will be passable.

Just looking for hope I guess!

I don't see much of a problem with your scheduling constraints. Assuming that you can actually begin hiking first thing in the morning on July 24 and that you need to finish by supper-time on Aug 25 (so that you can catch a flight on Aug 26, get a haircut, shave and attend the wedding on Aug 27), that's 33 days. From my perspective, 485 miles / 33 days = ~15 miles per day which is a relatively modest pace. You could bump your speed up to ~16 mpd, and you'd be done in a month (ie, 485 mi / 16 mpd = ~30 days). I've hiked the trail twice and on both occasions I took my time, but it still only took about 33 days, including some zero-days.

As far as I'm concerned, you're golden!

[StubbleJumper]

Oh, I forgot one thing:

If you are a typical guy, you might be planning to wear the same suit to each of the three weddings because most guys hate shopping for clothes and some of us are cheap (you might swap out different ties so that the photos from the weddings don't all look the same!). I would caution you to keep in mind that you might lose 15 or 20 lbs over the course of a CT hike. A suit which fits perfectly well before your hike will hang on you after your hike. If you rent a tux, that's not a problem because usually the pants can be synched up.

In 2009 I encountered a triple-crown hiker who was doing a quick jaunt across Vermont on the Long Trail before attending a wedding somewhere in New England. Well, after hiking the LT and arriving at the wedding, she put on her dress and discovered that she her boobs had shrunk significantly over the course of a thru-hike and the dress didn't quite fit as expected!

[Hosh]

This is a strong El Nino year, a late spring massive storm(s) are very likely.

[archie]

Thanks for the advice all, I am going to do the CT this year for sure. I mistyped my original post, I meant to say my fall hike is disappearing. I wanted to start just before Sept 1.

Garlic, I agree that they would not miss me and you always miss something for a LD hike. I just don't want to miss these three, especially the one in Sept. I love hiking, but some other things are just as important to me, like my family.

I expect no problems in being able to finish between my July and Aug conflicts, I just didn't want to hike then if possible. If I cant go in Sept, I would prefer to start mid-late June. July1 start would be pushing it time wise. I have no fear of the snow, I have decades of back country skiing exp. and was a patroller in Montana for many years. I just don't want a winter vacation in July. I have not seen much of the mnts in the summer and living in MN I get enough winter in the winter.

As for the issue of the suit-OMG I never had thought of that. I especially might have a problem as I am more than a bit portly at the moment! HAHA maybe it turns out that my one and only suit actually will fit after the hike.

Thanks for the hope, the advice and the links! Ill be out there sometime this year

[colorado_rob]

... I just don't want a winter vacation in July. I have not seen much of the mnts in the summer and living in MN I get enough winter in the winter.... Ill be out there sometime this year

Zero chance of "winter" in early July** (or even late June). Zero. High summer, spectacular time of year, much better than late July/August which is rainier and has higher incidence of lightning, most years.

Yet another small benefit of a mid-June start is that it can and probably will be very hot in the first couple sections. June is usually a tad cooler than July, making your first few days statistically more comfortable.

Footnotes: ** It can snow in July at high elevations, but it's rare, and it melts instantly and it will still be summer and will feel nothing at all like winter, even with flurries or graupel (bean-bag chair filling type snow) falling on you.

[archie]

CR,

I love summer graupel storms. I spent 24 hours in one this July on the Teton Crest Trail and it was the best day. Way better than the eighty something degree day when I climbed 5k from the valley to the crest!

Mid June is sounding good, I will keep an eye on the late storms and the spring melt and give you guys a holler as the date grows closer to check on the snow.

Thanks WB !

[archie]

I am curious about the areas that may be "challenging" if mid June snow conditions are problematic. What does challenging mean? Postholing? Exposure? additional navigation challenges? I am just thinking ahead to make sure I have access to whatever I might need as far as equipment is concerned.

Thanks.

[colorado_rob]

I am curious about the areas that may be "challenging" if mid June snow conditions are problematic. What does challenging mean? Postholing? Exposure? additional navigation challenges? I am just thinking ahead to make sure I have access to whatever I might need as far as equipment is concerned.

Thanks.

No exposure really (if you mean falling exposure) if going SWBO starting in mid-June, just some probable postholing starting in section 6, about a week into your hike. Got snowshoes? Might not need them much or at all, too early to tell.

There may be some additional navigation challenges, meaning easier to lose the trail, hard to say. There are a lot of trails that have winter traffic zig-zagging around the CT, might be easy to make a wrong turn. I'd consider a GPS with waypoints or a track (bearcreek's site has detailed waypoints, just google "Colorado trail GPS waypoints") if you start in early June, can't really hurt, won't need it until section 6 at the earliest, then in another week or two you won't need it anymore.

Stay tuned! We just today drove right through the mid-CT areas (returning to Denver from Ouray), it has been way warm and dry lately, snow looking thin in a lot of areas, though summit county (sections 6-8) still has a healthy amount. Keep checking those snow level sites.

[Venchka]

New snow on the way west of Denver.

Wayne

[archie]

New snow on the way west of Denver.

Wayne

That's not a very nice thing to say!

[gravityman]

Colorado is at or above the median snow pack for this date. Check out snowtel: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/...105.870&zoom=8

[Hosh]

That's not a very nice thing to say!

It is if you're a skier