Colorado snowpack

[Hosh]

We're at 144th & I25.

I always wanted to live on 285 corridor back in the days when it was one of the most dangerous 2 lane highways in country. A good friend lived in Shaffer's Crossing and would risk his life to drive home in a storm like we just experienced.

I have been spending more time in your neck of the woods since the bad floods took out the Big Thompson fishery. I am back to fishing at Deckers, its about the same drive as Poudre Canyon and the fish are bigger.

We did a family backpacking trip in LCW last summer. It's an amazing place, the granite formations are like the sandstone in Moab.

[dudeijuststarted]

It could be time for your nieces and nephews to learn about disappointment . I wouldn't can a thru-hike for someone's wedding.

[colorado_rob]

Call me optimistic, but I still think a mid-late June start is fine. Four critical snotel sites for early on in a CT SWBO thru:

Michagan Creek, section 6, currently 102% of average
Hoosier Pass (just south of Breckenridge, section 7-ish), 104%
Copper Mtn (section 8-ish), 106%
Freemont Pass (north of Leadville, section 9-ish), 99%

With a mid/late-June start, by the time you get past these sections, you'll be into early July, life is good, unless we get something really radical.

So, even with latest storm, just about average. STILL, big snow season for a while yet, stay tuned....

[archie]

Im trying to NOT stay tuned. Checking twice a day is driving me crazy. I will start on June 20 unless snow gets way over 100%. As you noted Colorado Rob most of the sites still have snow near average and they have pretty much been that way since I started this thread on Feb 7. They were about the same then as they are now, but they dropped off in between.

I have a question for you guys. The Copper Mtn. snow report seems to read relatively consistent with the Surrounding snotel sites but the Breck snow report consistently show WAY more snow fall than the surrounding snotel sites. Is Breck in a different weather pattern, is there reporting station located in a micro climate where it shows more snowfall(would make sense for a resort to locate it someplace like that) or do they misreport?

[Hosh]

Lot of variables, the ski areas will place their measurement stations in places that are conducive to high daily totals, ie sheltered trees, north facing, with little wind. The Snotel site can be anywhere, sheltered, wind blown, north facing, south facing or in open meadows. Mountain weather is very inconsistent, 2 feet of snow in a location, 10 miles away 6"'s.

[Hosh]

There is a decent long term forecast at WP Ski Area's site:

http://www.winterparkresort.com/

Click on the far right green circle with today's temperature
Scroll down on the green daily forecast to "snow and weather report"
Scroll down to "view alternative forecast" click "snowforecast.com"

[Hosh]

This is what you get when you scroll down below the six day forecast:

Long Range Forecast Discussion:
Spring into Summer - The El Nino SST pattern is weakening, and expected to transition to a La Nina as we move into early summer. What we are expecting for ski resort regions is this;

Northwest US/ Southwest Canada/ WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY, and AB/ BC - Milder than average temperatures with average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, good enough to build snow pack and keep resorts happy), then wetter and cooler than usual for May/ June (even some additional snow pack in the mountains mainly above 5,000 feet), dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm...

Southwest US/ SoCal to Mammoth/ Arizona/ New Mexico/ southern Utah/ southwest Colorado - Cooler than average temperatures with above average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, more than usual additional snow pack), and continued wetter/ cooler than usual for May/ June (additional snow pack for the Sierra Nevada Mountains mainly above 7,000 feet), then dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm (north), but a possibly stronger than usual monsoon pattern (more thunderstorms/ rain) for eastern CA deserts/ mountains (incl. Big Bear) through New Mexico...

Colorado/ northern New Mexico - Near average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow with slightly above average temperatures for March but mainly April, then near average precip + near average temperatures for May/ June. Cooler and wetter than usual conditions are expected (north) in July/ August with greater amounts of monsoon pattern rains/ storms, near average temps and precip (south)...CM

[archie]

Well that sounds like an OK forecast for everyone involved. Near average precip and slightly above average temps for CO in March and mainly April. March is about done and that seems like it was fairly accurate. I am always skeptical of forecasts but Im hopeful for possible June 20 start.

Thank you guys for keeping me updated.

[postholer.com]

While not the CT, you can stay on top of CDT snow conditions at the postholer snow page:
http://www.postholer.com/snow/Contin...Divide-Trail/2

This is not snow pack, it's on trail snow conditions, which is far more detailed and accurate than relying on a handful of SnoTel sensors, which we did previously.

Here's an up close of southern/central Colorado on the CDT:

[archie]

That's great Postholer, thanks. I am primarily concerned with the earlier sections like 6-8 around Breck as that will be where I first encounter snow. By the time I reach twin lakes I think I will be in much better shape regarding snow.

I am guessing your site does not have information on those sections as they are not concurrent with the CDT. Is that right?

Thanks for the input though, I appreciate it and will keep an eye on that info for later in the hike.

[postholer.com]

I am primarily concerned with the earlier sections like 6-8 around Breck as that will be where I first encounter snow. By the time I reach twin lakes I think I will be in much better shape regarding snow.

The CDT/CT coincide from section 6+ to 12 or from Georgia Pass to Twin Lakes. So the CDT snow chart will cover you through your area of interest, including Breckenridge.

-postholer

[archie]

Oh yeah I see that now. thanks for the info

[colorado_rob]

That's great Postholer, thanks. I am primarily concerned with the earlier sections like 6-8 around Breck as that will be where I first encounter snow. By the time I reach twin lakes I think I will be in much better shape regarding snow.

I am guessing your site does not have information on those sections as they are not concurrent with the CDT. Is that right?

Thanks for the input though, I appreciate it and will keep an eye on that info for later in the hike.

So, clicking the link, look at the Leadville to Silverthorn segment for a good idea (around mile 1217) for conditions in the CO trail 6-10 or so. Note that the green line (current) and black line (averages) are very close. Same as what the snotel sites say (the four I posted earlier). Certainly, information on the postholer site trumps what the snotel sites say, but as of right now, they agree.

Really Archie, you'll be fine unless we really start getting some big and regular dumps in April.

[archie]

I know I will be fine, I just bought my ticket. June 20.

[Hosh]

Well, just drove back from Moab UT a day early. Got chased by a large storm with snow at 8500' and above.

Vail Pass had wet roads, large flakes at noon, closed the pass at 4:00PM.

San Juans looking at 1 to 3 feet.

This a very slow moving storm with lots of water content.

Stay tuned

[archie]

Thanks for the update. Keep me updated after the storm if you can.

I am still hopeful as I have changed my ticket to June 18.

[hikeandbike5]

the mountains are getting pounded with snow today. like 3-4 feet.

[Hosh]

http://www.sierratradingpost.com/snowshoes~d~218/

[archie]

HaHa I've got them ready!

[Hosh]

I see, but will they work at altitude? You may need to re-jet them.

Knowing Colorado weather, it will switch to a super hot, dry early summer.