Snow and COLD on the AT

[Venchka]

My daughter was at Ray's (Ray's Weather) and got the week's forecast directly from Ray.
Snow Monday through Thursday. Bitter cold by Thursday.
Tipi Walter, and everyone else out there, Y'all be safe and warm.

Wayne


Sent from somewhere around here.

[Traveler]

"I knew I should have looked at Rays Weather before I left"

[Decibel]

Love that picture

[rocketsocks]

"I knew I should have looked at Rays Weather before I left"

can I have your Hawken?

[Venchka]

LOL! Hatchet Jack in the bathroom scene.
But seriously, in addition to 6"-12" of snow at the higher elevations and single digit temperatures, + or - 0, it will also be windy.
Fun stuff. Or don't venture out.

Wayne

[Venchka]

Snow, cold, more snow and colder. Pay attention to the mountain top conditions. It is 12 degrees and the wind is blowing at 20 mph at 8 am in Boone, NC, elevation 3,400 feet. Translate that to the high ridges and 0 degrees and 30 mph winds would not be unexpected.
I heard the phrase "Polar Vortex" on the weather channel this morning. Yikes!

File this under: "I'm starting NOBO in early February. Will I need a tent or can I just use the shelters? Will my 2 season sleeping bag and a liner be ok? Do I really need a down jacket?"

From Ray's Weather:

http://www.booneweather.com/Forecast/Boone

It's Day 3 of snow showers and flurries. Snow accumulations are nearing the forecast totals we have been advertising since Sunday. If anything they are nearing the top end of our Accumulations Graphic in the western half of the Appalachians. You'll hear a few mountaintop reports of over one foot tomorrow, I'm sure. In spite of snow showers and flurries continuing off and on through tonight, most of the region will pick up no more than 1" (dusting at most on the eastern edge of the mountains). However, higher elevations along the western escarpment could see another 1"-3" by tonight. Thursday has decreasing clouds after early flurries end.

Temperatures are very cold and with gusty winds. Wind chills are below 0 for most of the region, but in the -20s on mountaintops. Tonight, windchills will be in the minus teens for most, -20s again on mountaintops. Friday has a return of snow showers and flurries lasting into Saturday morning. An even colder blast of Arctic air arrives Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be at sunrise then fall to brutally cold levels Saturday night.

Today we reach the peak of cold with the current arctic blast. But an even colder blast arrives Saturday. With gusty winds today, negative windchills are common (-20s on mountaintops). Tonight with even stronger winds, windchills will be even a bit colder. Saturday, temperatures will fall from sunrise highs. Saturday night and Sunday morning will be the coldest of the season. If you will be outside, prepare accordingly.

And snow showers/flurries continue... With the wind, totals will be nearly impossible to measure. But expect another 1" or less for most of the Appalachian region (no more than a dusting eastern edge); however, the western escarpment (near the TN/NC border) will pick up another 1"-3" before it ends. And it will end... Early Thursday morning as flurries.

We get a 24-hour break Thursday with cold temperatures. Winds will settle Thursday afternoon and night. Skies become cloudy again early Friday with another round of snow showers and flurries lasting into Saturday.

Sunday starts bitterly cold but temperatures moderate slightly in the afternoon. Clouds return Sunday night. Low pressure develops in Texas Sunday moving across the Southeast Monday. It's too early to clearly characterize the Monday event... could be a snow to mix (even briefly to rain) to snow showers event, but nobody knows yet. Stay tuned. Tuesday has lots of clouds with less cold temperatures; however, light precipitation cannot be ruled out even Tuesday.

Stay warm Y'all.

Wayne

[grizzlyadam]

Current air temp on Grandfather: 0.0* with a windchill of -28*

http://www.grandfather.com/current-conditions/

[4eyedbuzzard]

File this under: "I'm starting NOBO in early February. Will I need a tent or can I just use the shelters? Will my 2 season sleeping bag and a liner be ok? Do I really need a down jacket?

Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts. A dozen people here on WB tell them and even spoon feed them the actual historical weather data and they say, "Well, so and so hiked one year and said it was okay. So if I add a liner to my bag will I then be okay - maybe? I'd could get a warmer bag, I guess, but I'm really trying to keep my pack weight down, or, I don't have much money . . ." Sigh.

[Venchka]

Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts. A dozen people here on WB tell them and even spoon feed them the actual historical weather data and they say, "Well, so and so hiked one year and said it was okay. So if I add a liner to my bag will I then be okay - maybe? I'd could get a warmer bag, I guess, but I'm really trying to keep my pack weight down, or, I don't have much money . . ." Sigh.

Yup! Coupled with "I'm from Flatland Coastal City. The Smokies are close to Charlotte or Atlanta. Same weather right?" Very few people have a clue when it comes to changes in elevation and latitude affecting local weather. Even fewer folks know that the southern Appalachians support the same/similar vegetation as Nova Scotia and Labrador. In their defense, they don't have a clue where Nova Scotia and Labrador are. Grinning & scratching my head.
But I digress.
Winter was slow to arrive, but arrive it has. It may be just as slow going this year. Hang on to your winter gear until somewhere in Virginia. If you have winter gear.
Standing by for the Tipi Walter Earth Mother of all Trip Reports.

Wayne

[Venchka]

Current air temp on Grandfather: 0.0* with a windchill of -28*

http://www.grandfather.com/current-conditions/

Thanks Adam. I trust the wedding went great! Caty, my granddaughter, knew that Y'all were getting married.
All the best to both of you.
Cheers!

Wayne

[Snowleopard]

Colder and windier on Grandfather Mt. than on Mt. Washington right now (11:21am, 2/10/2016). Saturday at my house in Mass. will be as nice (or bad if you don't like cold) as both mountains have today. Of course Mt. W. will be brutal on Saturday, probably not survivable conditions there.

[bemental]

I was just looking at the weather as well, and it's warmer here in Maine right now than it is in all of the trail towns along the AT to Damascus.

You know it's even colder up in the hills.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Colder and windier on Grandfather Mt. than on Mt. Washington right now (11:21am, 2/10/2016). Saturday at my house in Mass. will be as nice (or bad if you don't like cold) as both mountains have today. Of course Mt. W. will be brutal on Saturday, probably not survivable conditions there.

Excerpt from the Mt. Washington Higher Summits Forecast at https://www.mountwashington.org/expe...n-weather.aspx

"Over the weekend, the second arctic air mass drops in plunging air temperatures to 35 below. With hurricane force winds expected over the weekend forecast period, wind chill values will drop to as low as 90 below."


Yeah, definitely "Not Without Peril" conditions.

[Coffee]

Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts.

It's like the six foot tall man who drowns in a river with an average depth of five feet.

[Gonecampn]

image.jpeg
The reason I postponed my section hike on the BMT scheduled for this weekend!

[4eyedbuzzard]

Just a sobering and scary thought regarding dangerous winter weather in the Whites as this cold front approaches - Almost exactly one year ago, on Sunday Feb 15, also on Presidents Day weekend, Kate Matrosova climbed into a similar situation . Not a time to test oneself against the elements. RIP Kate.

[peakbagger]

As I noted on VFTT, the forecast for the weekend in the whites is lining up to be sunny but cold with high winds. Its a three day weekend plus college week off so lots of folks have made their reservations and are going to be heading up after reading several weekends of past trail reports which were above normal temps. They may see the latest forecast but figure what the heck "we already made our plans so we will drive up and hope the forecast improves". It may not and then they will decide, "we are already up here so lets head up and if it gets too bad we will turn around". Add in some hypothermia which clouds their thinking and its a recipe for someone getting hurt or killed.

Last weekend was the anniversary for Guy Waterman's last hike up Lafayette.

[Trance]

It's colder here on the East Coast right now than it is at 7000+ feet in Mammoth CA, Sierra Nevadas PCT.

[JohnHuth]

Space suit weather....and here I am scheduled to go into the Flagstaff Lake area of Maine on Sunday, high temp of 1 deg F. Sheeesh....

[WILLIAM HAYES]

carry a LW tent get a 15-20 degree bag dont depend on staying in only shelters