SOBO Bubble passing through Elk Garden (VA600)

[rtfi]

6/20/2016 Start Date for SOBO
2,189.1 Miles Katahdin to Springer
12 Miles per day
182 Days
12/19/2016 End Date for SOBO

6/20/2016 Start Date for SOBO
1,696.1 Miles Katahdin to Elk Garden
12 Miles per day
141 Days
11/8/2016 Date SOBO arrives at Elk Garden

I am trying to choose a date to provide some trail magic at Elk Garden for SOBOs and came up with the above calculations to suggest November 8th would be a good date. I know SOBOs are advised to wait until the end of Black Fly season in Maine, and from what I have read it can last as late as early July. I think this would be too late to finish before Christmas, which I would think would be a goal. So the June 20th start date seems reasonable, as does the 182 day (6 month) total time. Anyone have any thoughts on when the SOBO bubble will pass through Elk Garden (VA600)?

[Berserker]

I don't know how much it helps your estimate, but I was up in the Whites a couple of weeks ago and there was a steady stream of SOBOs going through there then.

[egilbe]

Sobo's start hiking South as soon as Katahdin opens, which this year was May 27th, or close to it. In June, my GF and I met 15 or so hikers who had all started between June 1st and 9th, outside Andover. We were still meeting Sobo hikers farther North who had started later in June. It really depends on the hiker's speed, but there really isnt a Sobo bubble.

[rtfi]

I met some SOBOs while section hiking from Katahdin to Katahdin Ironworks Road from July 9th to July 16th (completing my 20 year section hike!), and they seemed to think they were the tail end. I think I will aim for a few weeks earlier than my calculation. I think you are right that there isn't as much of a SOBO bubble compared to the NOBOs.

[map man]

The average completing SOBO covers the trail in around five months, not six. Around October 20 is a better guess for the average completer reaching Elk Garden VA. Here is a link to the the study on SOBOs keeping journals at trailjournals.com:

http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content....T-Hiking-Rates

Here is some data pulled from that article:

1. 
   Med. Date.....Mean Date..........Landmark
   June 23.............June 24..............Katahdin
   July 8................July 10...............Stratton
   July 20..............July 21................Gorham
   Aug. 1...............July 31...............Glencliff
   Aug. 21.............Aug. 23...............Kent
   Aug. 31.............Sept. 4................Delaware Water Gap
   Sept. 14............Sept. 20..............Harpers Ferry
   Sept. 24............Sept. 30..............Waynesboro
   Oct. 17..............Oct. 23...............Damascus
   Nov. 11.............Nov. 12...............Fontana
   Nov. 21.............Nov. 23...............Springer

[MuddyWaters]

Unless they stack up due to weather, sometimes even if they do, your only looking at a couple sobo hikers per day. Some days, or for several days, you will have zero, especially after bad weather clears trail for a few days and they bunch up in town.

[TheCheek]

there really isnt a Sobo bubble.

True. All the calculations can't make up for thus fact. Either you will be lucky and run into one or two sobos still going or you'll be really bored sitting there all day.

[map man]

True. All the calculations can't make up for thus fact. Either you will be lucky and run into one or two sobos still going or you'll be really bored sitting there all day.

Agreed. Best to set up on a good weather day on a weekend to maximize the number of day and section hikers you will see and if you happen to see any SOBO thru-hikers that would be a nice bonus for you. Still, setting up in late October would give you the best chance of encountering any SOBOs, I think.

[HDLV]

I'm hiking sobo now and the first bubble of us are in NY/CT now.

[rtfi]

Thanks for the great info.

[egilbe]

And still ran into half a dozen sobos starting out in Maine, this week when the gf and I hiked. Quite a few flip floppers, too.