I'd go with group. All it takes is one person that accidently steps of trail and then the lemming effect kicks in
I'd go with group. All it takes is one person that accidently steps of trail and then the lemming effect kicks in
No doubt, when with a group, or even with a single companion. Distracted by conversation. Did it several times the last two days on trails I know really well.
Pennsylvania State Game Lands are marked with, of all things, a white blob. If you follow those, you'll find yourself off the AT. Similar to this:
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The AT goes through a number of SGLs in PA.
Actual SGL boundary marker:
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Definitely group. I've stepped over logs, placed there so that someone paying attention would not continue down that path, like they were rocks in the middle of the trail because I was focused on a conversation. Also get farther off trail in a group. I may miss a turn while zoned out by myself but catch that I'm off trail within five minutes.
That's definitely the one...so dang confusing. As I recall there was a blaze about every 20 feet in that stretch and on either side of the trail. After a while they just all looked the same...someone left a funny note at the trail head berating the creators of this confusing system, I wish I had taken a picture, it was pretty spot on funny.
The statistical reality is this:
If hikers chose the correct path 98% per choice (arbitrary number), then a second present hiker also chooses the correct path 98% per choice. Together, the two of them will choose the correct path .98 x .98 = 96% per choice.
A third present hiker, also choosing the correct path 98% per choice, causes the entire group to choose the correct path
.9604 x .98 = 94.12% per choice.
Each additional hiker present in the group further reduces the chance of the group selecting the correct path.
Sorry - no!
If you like to do some mathematical calculations, the result should be that the likeness of error would decrease with each hiker added to the group - assuming that each hiker has the same error factor but would make the error on different places. When having more and more hikers in the group the statistical number of errors would tend to zero.
Something that doesn't happen, as most hikers here know by own experience.
In reality, there are so many issues that irritate the members of a group that in fact most if not all groups have a higher error rate than individuals.
Group members get distracted, followers strictly rely on the foregoers, group members way back in the cue have less chance to read signes provided by nature or the trail itself (it even may happen that a huge gruppe going off-track is forming a new trail).
I think, the error factor is lowest for a couple (same or lower than for a single hiker), but groups sure have a higher error factor than singles, unless its a military-like organized group, which usually put one or very few individual in front leading the rest.
Copy that!