Benefits of an Earlier Start Date...

[Engine]

I have a question for the experienced thru-hikers among us.

Caboose and I are currently scheduled to step off from Springer on March 8th. Looking at current registration numbers, realizing they'll only get higher and represent maybe 50% of the actual numbers, we're starting to rethink our decision. From the bell curve that's becoming obvious on the registration charts, March 8th is much closer to the middle of the bubble than I would have thought when we chose that date.

I'm guessing more hikers are choosing to start earlier in March in order to avoid the crowd. With all of that in mind we're seriously looking at moving our start date to February 26th. I know it's only 10 days earlier, but it seems to move us out of the peak of the bubble. Looking at historical weather averages for both dates, we're only talking about 2-3 degrees difference on average. But, it would expose Caboose to almost 2 more weeks of cold weather and while she'll tolerate it, she's NOT a fan.

We have winter gear, microspikes, and I grew up in Northern Michigan, so winter weather activities are not a new experience.

Looking for pros, cons, and brutal honesty. Any reasons not I've already mentioned why this would be a particularly bad idea?

[Venchka]

You could attempt a search for Map Man's summary of start dates and successful finishes.
My recollection is May 1, plus or minus a week, was the optimal starting time.
If you have scheduling difficulties with May 1, then February it is.
Good luck.
Wayne


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[fastfoxengineering]

I'm not going to say it dangerous. But do the research, carry adequate insulation, and be able to handle being cold and wet without the opportunity to get in the car at the end of the day. I've been planning an AT thru hike. I would like to start early. Changes to gear I would make. I would bring my xtherm and 0 degree bag for starters. Plus a winter down jacket. I probably wouldn't want to to hike in trail runners either. Typically the weather slows you down and the bubble can catch up to you anyways cause your moving slowly in the begining. There's a lot to think about if starting an early thru hike and you still wanna be comfortable. Most will tell you, an early thru hike means proper winter gear.

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[booney_1]

With the weather patterns in the South East, starting this early is partly a gamble. You are more likely to be forced off the trail for a few days, or put together a number of low mileage days. But than you might miss any bad weather and get a great start.

Note that hiking in the Appalachians in the winter is different than the North. Bad weather in the South is likely to be much wetter than you are used to. It's really hard to stay warm when it's 33 and drizzling.

I'd suggest reading some Trail Journals from other years. You might convince Caboose easier, if you promise if a winter storm comes you bail and put her up and the local motel/hostel.

[Venchka]

Add extra funds to the list. You might be in towns more often to escape the crap weather. A multi day rain event in the North Carolina mountains is uncomfortable in July. They can be brutal in February and March.
The herd clustered around the March 8 date you quoted aren't the brightest bulbs in the room either.
Good luck to you all!
Wayne


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[booney_1]

saw the above post about not hiking in trail runners....If I was hiking this time of year i'd wear boots, or trail runners with overboots.

[bamboo bob]

My sense is that people who start early get slowed by weather. NOBO I started 4/4 and 4/24 and i passed a lot of people who started in March. SOBO I started 5/31 and after a week saw very few people at all.

[Spirit Walker]

I would start later rather than earlier. End of April or early May will allow you to enjoy the trip more than a February start. Both my thruhikes were April 1 starts and I had snow on both but for the most part I was walking with spring. I did a section hike a few years ago starting March 1. We had snow and ice on the trail for the 11 days we were on the trail. It wasn't that cold, but hiking up and down on icy trail was not fun. Hiking in winter, with no leaves, no flowers and no birds or squirrels was also depressing.

[Turk6177]

I wouldn't let a "bubble" affect my start date. There are so many non-shelter camping sites between Springer and the Smokeys that I don't know why you wouldn't be able to avoid the hiker train I have heard of.


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[Slo-go'en]

Starting the first week of March is a toss of the dice. Might go good, might go bad. It's been a mild winter, even up here in NH, but it has been a stormy one too. You got about 4 weeks to guess what the weather might do in March. If it's a stormy February down south, starting early March might not be a good idea.

The only advantage of a real early start is you get into northern VA and PA when the weather is still cool and damp. That can be much better then wicked hot and humid, like if you get there in late June or July. But then, you might have to deal with horrid conditions in New England if you get there too early.

[Slo-go'en]

I wouldn't let a "bubble" affect my start date. There are so many non-shelter camping sites between Springer and the Smokeys that I don't know why you wouldn't be able to avoid the hiker train I have heard of.

There are a finite number of those "non-shelter" camping sites and during the peak of the season, there are can be as many people looking for those spots as there are spots available. When you have 50 hikers all moving more or less at the same rate, they all end up more or less in the same place at the end of the day, even if many are camping somewhere between shelters. Consider that some 2000 hikers started in a window of 6 weeks last year, which means an average of 47 hikers started every day for 6 weeks.

[map man]

You could attempt a search for Map Man's summary of start dates and successful finishes.
My recollection is May 1, plus or minus a week, was the optimal starting time.
If you have scheduling difficulties with May 1, then February it is.
Good luck.
Wayne


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This is a link to the post Venchka mentions:

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthr...ons?highlight=

Venchka's memory of the start dates with highest completion percentages is a little off. It's March 21 to April 7 that have the highest completion percentages. Furthermore, in another article I find that male/female completing couples keeping a journal at trailjournals.com take an average of around 180 days to complete. If engine and Caboose turned out to be "average" completers then starting in late April or around May 1 would be a bad idea -- it wouldn't leave them enough time.

[Engine]

...You might convince Caboose easier, if you promise if a winter storm comes you bail and put her up and the local motel/hostel.

It's definitely part of the overall strategy. She's one tough lady, but at 108 pounds there's not much insulation.

[Engine]

My sense is that people who start early get slowed by weather. NOBO I started 4/4 and 4/24 and i passed a lot of people who started in March. SOBO I started 5/31 and after a week saw very few people at all.

I've seen that factor discussed often and we're taking it into consideration. Starting out in the cold, only to eventually be swallowed by a slow moving herd really defeats the purpose...but in the end it's kind of a gamble.

[Engine]

I would start later rather than earlier. End of April or early May will allow you to enjoy the trip more than a February start. Both my thruhikes were April 1 starts and I had snow on both but for the most part I was walking with spring. I did a section hike a few years ago starting March 1. We had snow and ice on the trail for the 11 days we were on the trail. It wasn't that cold, but hiking up and down on icy trail was not fun. Hiking in winter, with no leaves, no flowers and no birds or squirrels was also depressing.

As much as I love the mountains that time of year, we are constrained somewhat by the availability of our dog sitters...

[Engine]

There are a finite number of those "non-shelter" camping sites and during the peak of the season, there are can be as many people looking for those spots as there are spots available. When you have 50 hikers all moving more or less at the same rate, they all end up more or less in the same place at the end of the day, even if many are camping somewhere between shelters. Consider that some 2000 hikers started in a window of 6 weeks last year, which means an average of 47 hikers started every day for 6 weeks.

This is exactly our concern. There are already nearly 600 hikers registered (maybe almost that many not registered?) in the 20 day stretch centered on March 8th, and that number will only grow. Even if weather slows us down some, by the time we get caught the numbers will have decreased at least to some degree.

[renais]

I've started about March 1 in the three previous years I've been on the trail. In 2012 I saw a few snow flakes coming down at one point, and one day I saw snow on the distant mountains. Other than those events, I never hiked on or in snow. The weather was wet, and really cold for a bit, but the trail was nice and exposed. In 2013 I did not hike on exposed trail for the first 22 days. There were successive snow storms that kept the trail snowy and were deep enough in the higher mountains that I was postholing a fair bit there. Going over Roan in a blizzard was an experience I'll not forget. In 2015 there was some significant snow for a short while, but it wasn't all that bad. Waiting a few days, or taking slow days was a good practice. This year I plan to start at Springer 2/26, and hole up if the weather is really bad. I'm not in a big rush, and have made the discovery that taking my zeros or neros during the bad weather intervals makes my hikes so much more pleasant and enjoyable.

I agree that there are a lot of people on the trail early in the season, and some of the camping spots away from shelters might have multiple people camped, but I don't recall being at any camping spot early in the season where there was not room for another tent. Some of the nicer spots would have perhaps 5 or 6 other tents, but many of the spots are quite spacious.

[ScareBear]

I think that the earlier start date would be a "last resort" option if you couldn't wait until the last week of April. Although, it also depends on what you feel your best daily MPH will be. Starting May 1, you only have 5 months for certain to get to K. October is your crap shoot there. So, if your confidence factor in bagging big mile days is low, I'd say go with the earlier start. But, be prepared to be prepared. Two ways at looking at a February start. One, you will bring all the gear you need, i.e. 0 degree bag, spikes, maybe MSR snow shoes, tall gaiters, full-on hardshell top and bottom and extra food. Or, two, you will bring your normal kit, hope for the best, and just have a bail-to-town plan in place in case the weather goes FUBAR on ya. IMHO, the first option is partner-dependent. How does the Caboose feel about the potential hardships of a February start? Also, the second option is finance-dependent. You can spend a lot of time in town in motels waiting out winter crap until you get past Hot Springs...

[garlic08]

It sounds like experienced hikers here agree to start later, and I'll add my voice to the chorus. I started Apr 4, my wife started Apr 15 on her thru, we both agree we'd start in early May if we did it again.

I'd stress the above advice to not underestimate spring storms in the south--I spend a lot time in winter above treeline in the Rockies and the southern Appalachians seriously got my attention.

I'll also stress the additional time and cost of an early start, waiting out harsh conditions in town.

A late start may require a strong start, and some more attention to your pace.

[Bronk]

I started February 28th and we got lucky with the weather. Yes it was cold but we never got more than an inch or two of snow. I mostly remember it raining a lot. I started on a Thursday because I figured many people would be starting on Friday or Saturday. But honestly, there were still a lot of people. Not so much hiking during the day...lots of people hiking roughly the same pace will never see each other during the day unless one of them stops to take a break...but the shelters will be full. The first time I remember a shelter that wasn't full was the first shelter past the NOC. But once you get to the smokies they will be full again. As much as people talk about all of those who drop out early, there are still enough to fill the shelters at least until you get to Hot Springs. The first time I remember seeing an empty shelter was Erwin, and that was mainly because people slackpacked in and out of Erwin. But count on a lot of people being on the trail for the first four to six weeks of a thruhike.