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  1. #61
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    considering a switch to CDT if this continues.....

  2. #62
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImAfraidOfBears View Post
    considering a switch to CDT if this continues.....
    Southern Colorado & northern New Mexico got dumped on again earlier this week.
    Perhaps this year will spawn a new hiking scheme: Hopscotch.
    I'm hoping that the CDT through Glacier NP is clear by mid August or early September. With my luck, the park will be snow free for a few minutes before next winter's storms arrive.
    Good luck!
    Wayne
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  3. #63
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    The last six years have been one big outlier. If you want to thruhike the PCT you have to realize you'll be entering some big mountains in spring. If people don't like snow, they should find something else to do.

  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by Venchka View Post
    Southern Colorado & northern New Mexico got dumped on again earlier this week.
    Wayne
    The CDT is fine. Look at all the snowfalls at all the ski resorts along the CDT. Like 270" compared to 650" in the Sierras. Rockies are having a normal year which is almost half what a normal Pacific Crest year is like.

  5. #65
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    I hope you're right. There is a lot of trail nowhere near any ski areas. Winter won't be over for awhile.
    Enough pessimism. I'll be on the CDT somewhere this year.
    Good luck to you!
    Wayne


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  6. #66
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Another viewpoint. Still too early to know for sure.
    Posted at BackcountryPost.com.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kmatjhwy, post: 78488, member: 3770
    Now thought I would give you an update on the winter and snow conditions here in NW Wyoming. After a record breaking February, the snowpack up high above Teton Village in the Teton's has never been deeper at this point in all of the JH Resort's 40 year history. The settled snow depth at Rendezvous Bowl passed the 150 inches depth mark on February 21st. Also now at the end of February, almost 500 inches of snow has fallen and we haven't even come to the wet spring as of yet. The wettest month here is always May. Right now we are even surpassing the big record year of 1996-97. If this continues like this we one will need snowshoes if one wants to hike in the High Country even in July, and maybe maybe even into August.

    As of February, it has been the fourth wettest month ever in the history of Jackson Hole period. And then add to this that last October was the fifth wettest month ever. And also December was so wet and snowy. And now with today, March 1st with even more snow in town and up high ... the snow just keeps on coming and coming. And personally for this coming summer, I don't think that all of the snow we have received and will receive will all melt this coming summer. And that is IF we even have a summer with the way it is going. The local meteorologist Jim Woodmancy had a good article in the local weekly paper today called "February Breaks Record For Snow, Moisture. And at the end says this ... This year I don't expect all that snow at the higher elevations to melt until late July or even August. Or, perhaps sometime after this next Ice Age is over.

    Also in the article, Jim Woodmancy says that at the resort, before this year the biggest year was 1996-97, the snow did not reach the 150 inches depth mark until Mid-March. Also some of the local Snotel - Backcountry Snow Monitoring Sites, are recording the current snow pack to be 200% plus or near 200% which is double the amount then normal. Deer Park Snotel Site in the Wind Rivers has now 257% for their snowpack - snow water equivalent as of this morning. This will mean for sure flooding in areas downstream, and sad for the fisherman with muddle waters probably all summer, and to add thousands upon thousands and upon thousands of mosquitoes when it does melt and flood.

    Wishing Everyone the Best!
    I'm


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  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by gwschenk View Post
    The last six years have been one big outlier. If you want to thruhike the PCT you have to realize you'll be entering some big mountains in spring. If people don't like snow, they should find something else to do.
    Couldn't agree more. Not sure the southern CDT is going to be much better. On Postholer southern Co is nearly the 4/1 max for the last dozen or so years.
    enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry

  8. #68

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    March 1 depths many places are record level in CA
    But a week of really really warm dry weather is here. Maybe 2.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 03-02-2017 at 21:24.

  9. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by Malto View Post
    Not sure the southern CDT is going to be much better. On Postholer southern Co is nearly the 4/1 max for the last dozen or so years.
    Telluride is Southern CO. They have 259". Durango is even more southern. They have 231". (As opposed to the 600"+ of the Sierra resorts now). These are good numbers for them but CO resorts averages are almost HALF as much as Sierra averages. As a lifelong skier I can tell you CO average snowfall doesn't come anywhere close to CA, OR, WA or UT averages so even if they are doing above average (or even like the best winter ever) it is still nothing compared to just an average Sierra (let alone a super duper monster one like this year). I've never been on the CDT or researched it but just knowing as a skier how little snow CO gets compared to the Sierra I think it's safe to say that the CDT will be a much much safer bet as far as snow goes.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlpineKevin View Post
    Telluride is Southern CO. They have 259". Durango is even more southern. They have 231". (As opposed to the 600"+ of the Sierra resorts now). These are good numbers for them but CO resorts averages are almost HALF as much as Sierra averages. As a lifelong skier I can tell you CO average snowfall doesn't come anywhere close to CA, OR, WA or UT averages so even if they are doing above average (or even like the best winter ever) it is still nothing compared to just an average Sierra (let alone a super duper monster one like this year). I've never been on the CDT or researched it but just knowing as a skier how little snow CO gets compared to the Sierra I think it's safe to say that the CDT will be a much much safer bet as far as snow goes.
    I hear what you're saying but I also know that every year of above average snow, the CDT hikers start to flip, skip and talk about snowshoes just like the PCT. Keep in mind the CDT is on average a higher elevation in S. CO than the Sierra so the snow will hold longer. There are almost 400 miles of continuous 10k+ elevation on the CDT in CO vs. just 10k+ on passes. (Take a look at the elevations on Postholer's snow pages for each trail.) The number of inches of snowfall is not the whole story.
    enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry

  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlpineKevin View Post
    Telluride is Southern CO. They have 259". Durango is even more southern. They have 231". (As opposed to the 600"+ of the Sierra resorts now). These are good numbers for them but CO resorts averages are almost HALF as much as Sierra averages. As a lifelong skier I can tell you CO average snowfall doesn't come anywhere close to CA, OR, WA or UT averages so even if they are doing above average (or even like the best winter ever) it is still nothing compared to just an average Sierra (let alone a super duper monster one like this year). I've never been on the CDT or researched it but just knowing as a skier how little snow CO gets compared to the Sierra I think it's safe to say that the CDT will be a much much safer bet as far as snow goes.
    san juans are at ~150% of normal year snowpack, with the snowiest months still to come.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Malto View Post
    I hear what you're saying but I also know that every year of above average snow, the CDT hikers start to flip, skip and talk about snowshoes just like the PCT. Keep in mind the CDT is on average a higher elevation in S. CO than the Sierra so the snow will hold longer. There are almost 400 miles of continuous 10k+ elevation on the CDT in CO vs. just 10k+ on passes. (Take a look at the elevations on Postholer's snow pages for each trail.) The number of inches of snowfall is not the whole story.
    Practically word for word what I was going to write.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    March 1 depths many places are record level in CA
    But a week of really really warm dry weather is here. Maybe 2.
    With this yrs snowpack levels it's going to take more than a couple of wks of warmer weather before a PCTer sees pay dirt in more places than was common over the past several lower snowfall yrs. As said it's not just the Sierra that a NOBO or flip flopper PCTer can/will see snow travel this yr. Good yr to start a NOBO late with the intent to hit the TH ready to crush it.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by hikeandbike5 View Post
    san juans are at ~150% of normal year snowpack, with the snowiest months still to come.
    This is true in a couple places, but a fair bit of the SJ's (and where the CDT passes) are more like in the 110-120 percent range, and sure, the snowiest months are to come, but that information is already baked in to the current information, meaning that if March/April have less than normal snow (even though still very snowy), things could shape up nicely for the huge throng of snow-o-phobes out there.

    Also not sure why cities like Durango (in a CO banana belt) and Telluride are being quoted for comparative snowpack... Wolf Creek Pass is running about 400 inches.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    With this yrs snowpack levels it's going to take more than a couple of wks of warmer weather before a PCTer sees pay dirt in more places than was common over the past several lower snowfall yrs. As said it's not just the Sierra that a NOBO or flip flopper PCTer can/will see snow travel this yr. Good yr to start a NOBO late with the intent to hit the TH ready to crush it.
    The Sierra snow pack also has a higher than normal water content. More like Sierra sludge than cement. Spring melt, re-freeze, melt cycles will take longer.

    As CA nears the end of the drought, all this bonus water will flow to the ocean sans any new reservoirs. Seven years from now, they'll be bitch'in that they need more share from the Colorado basin.

  16. #76
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    snow o phobes

    CO banana belt

    feel like we're getting CO insider talk

  17. #77

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    Costa Rica should be a low snow year this year. I think they allow people to walk around there too..... If you want to play it even safer go to the Alps. Those guys never get any snow.

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  19. #79
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    The top two posters have great perspectives, each for their own expectations. A very nice contrast of valid, but different approaches.

    Expectations are very important. Having them balance with reality, our skills, and fitness is crucial.


    OK, First, Trail conditions from Tahoe to Whitney. I track all the High Sierra watersheds H2O pages, and list the real-time snow depth and temp reporting stations within them over the Winter and Spring of 2017 here:

    https://tahoetowhitney.com/2017-high...alendar.html#4


    Find the latest snow status and temps, or links to them above.


    Scroll up to see the local progress of Winter into Spring.



    Second, what does that information mean as of April 1?

    I cover current and upcoming conditions here:

    http://tahoetowhitney.org/content/ba...t-april-1-2017



    Third, Malto Spoke of the Difficulty of Sonora Pass in Snow. Actually crossing Leavitt is a BALL (NB into Sonora Pass) for an experienced snow traveler, but climbing the South Face of Sonora Peak hiking N out of Sonora Pass is a bear in snow. I have a Winter Trip up the E Carson from Antelope Valley that is always turned around by that South Face of Sonora Peak.

    So, I made a map that shows the route that PCT hikers use through Leavitt Meadow to the Marine Base to Wolf Creek Lake & the PCT here;


    30 minute

    https://tahoetowhitney.com/Sonora%20...g-map.html#map


    15 minute

    https://tahoetowhitney.com/Sonora%20...k-map.html#map


    I have a complete set of 30 & 15 minute maps covering the Sierra from Meeks Bay to Mount Whitney that many PCT hikers may find informative.

    https://tahoetowhitney.com/maps/Maps_Index.html


    I see a window for the Transport of Tropical Moisture opening up in four or five days.

    Track Sierra Weather:

    http://tahoetowhitney.org/content/fa...itions-reports



    Good Luck and Happy Trails,

    Alex from Tahoe to Whitney

  20. #80

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    First of all, I want to say big thanks to Alex from Tahoe to Whitney website as that's the section I am shooting for in mid-July (I am merely a section hiker, but Oregon in 15 days last year was a great jump for me). I had found his website through search engines a long while back. I picked the section out of various logistics with family and work and other, and only then learned how treacherous it is on a good year - yet along this year. I am not backing off (my second section for this year is first 250 miles of WA in August).
    Secondly, my husband, big on web-browsing (and generally freaking out for me) just sent me this, thought I'd share just in case: https://blog.hyperlitemountaingear.c...igh-snow-year/
    ​Hopelessly Lost

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