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  1. #1
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    Default Anish's split mileposts to theoretical "days"

    I took Anish's split mileposts from the Matt Kirk communal spreadsheet and converted them to "days." I created theoretical "days" by averaging the miles where multiple "days" elapsed between split timestamps.

    I'd love it if somebody better at math and smarter than me could take a look this. Do you days 3-8 look reasonable? Is the arithmetic correct? What about day 18?

    Is it valid? Is it useful? Does anybody care? Is it better than the linear Anish theoretical model (where we just divide days hiked by total miles)?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

  2. #2
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    This might have to wait... but careful as it's easy to fall into spreadsheet magic.

    Here's a thought. During very recent similar recreation of such a data dump...
    I added a column to create hours between points. (two or three actually to get it to work)
    It required a bit of manual overriding for periods greater than 24 hours. A bit more manual over riding when times go negative.
    Spreadsheets seem to handle time minus time (sorta)- but not days+ time if that makes sense. So you end up having to add a separate days column.

    But the purpose of creating hours between points was to see miles per hour.
    Unless you have lots of points... it's hard to extrapolate start/stop times... and thus create realistic days. So you are pushing the data you got there on a quick look.

    On the flipside if you happen to have a person who doesn't sleep on any kind of reasonable schedule- days don't matter much.
    So if you can create miles between pings....
    And time between pings...

    Then you can get a reasonable MPH covered including rests.
    That can be useful to look for unreasonable leaps, or blips, or problems that might require extra attention on the high side.
    On the lowside... you might identify a sleep spot for this data set as the hiker you are looking at tended to sleep on a more traditional schedule as far as we know.

    So in theory- your MPH will smooth out in this case- or ideally show a more typical speed curve overall with pace going from say 2ish to up to 3ish as she goes south.
    But... it's a tool in the toolbox really and I feel too much spreadsheet magic to create something to hang your hat on.

  3. #3

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    JustBill - I've been following the story of the recent FKT that was deemed as inconclusive or non verifiable. I think I read your post on it last night but can no longer see it and the young man's name escapes me. I'm curious if there isn't any discussion about a system to track hikers from GA to ME for certification purposes. I'm confused because there seems to be a honor system and a confirmation system also. The ATC uses the honor system. Are you a member of a group or agency that confirms hikes? Are your rulings official or suggestions and what is the position of the hiker who's claim was recently rejected is he accepting of this or do you think that FKT hikers accept each others claims? Not looking for a controversial pursuit but I am curious again mostly if there isn't a way to place for example electronic way points along the trail so really every hiker might track their progress and demonstrate a legit completion. Like the chips now worn by marathoners for example - they have a watchdog group too that tracks times and race vids to ensure qual times for runners looking to fudge their way into big name races they otherwise couldn't run in like the Boston or NY for example.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
    This might have to wait... but careful as it's easy to fall into spreadsheet magic.

    Here's a thought. During very recent similar recreation of such a data dump...
    I added a column to create hours between points. (two or three actually to get it to work)
    It required a bit of manual overriding for periods greater than 24 hours. A bit more manual over riding when times go negative.
    Spreadsheets seem to handle time minus time (sorta)- but not days+ time if that makes sense. So you end up having to add a separate days column.

    But the purpose of creating hours between points was to see miles per hour.
    Unless you have lots of points... it's hard to extrapolate start/stop times... and thus create realistic days. So you are pushing the data you got there on a quick look.

    On the flipside if you happen to have a person who doesn't sleep on any kind of reasonable schedule- days don't matter much.
    So if you can create miles between pings....
    And time between pings...

    Then you can get a reasonable MPH covered including rests.
    That can be useful to look for unreasonable leaps, or blips, or problems that might require extra attention on the high side.
    On the lowside... you might identify a sleep spot for this data set as the hiker you are looking at tended to sleep on a more traditional schedule as far as we know.

    So in theory- your MPH will smooth out in this case- or ideally show a more typical speed curve overall with pace going from say 2ish to up to 3ish as she goes south.
    But... it's a tool in the toolbox really and I feel too much spreadsheet magic to create something to hang your hat on.
    I agree on all points. To clarify, THIS SPREADSHEET WAS NOT IN ANY WAY AN ATTEMPT TO VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE Anish's hike. Personally, I 100% believe her hike to be completely valid. I was more interested in an MPH and a comparison between her and other FKTers. About MPH: I think total overall MPH is actually a more interesting metric than MPH-while-not-resting. Certainly much easier to quantify and calculate.... I have come to use overall-MPH as my speed metric on my own hikes.

  5. #5
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
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    Working on overall MPH is the better metric for personal use for sure. Many can whip off a short stretch to impress, or even sustain it for a day or three.
    But given the distances involved efficiently putting up overall MPH matters most.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Curious G View Post
    JustBill - I've been following the story of the recent FKT that was deemed as inconclusive or non verifiable. I think I read your post on it last night but can no longer see it and the young man's name escapes me. I'm curious if there isn't any discussion about a system to track hikers from GA to ME for certification purposes. I'm confused because there seems to be a honor system and a confirmation system also. The ATC uses the honor system. Are you a member of a group or agency that confirms hikes? Are your rulings official or suggestions and what is the position of the hiker who's claim was recently rejected is he accepting of this or do you think that FKT hikers accept each others claims? Not looking for a controversial pursuit but I am curious again mostly if there isn't a way to place for example electronic way points along the trail so really every hiker might track their progress and demonstrate a legit completion. Like the chips now worn by marathoners for example - they have a watchdog group too that tracks times and race vids to ensure qual times for runners looking to fudge their way into big name races they otherwise couldn't run in like the Boston or NY for example.
    https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthr...on-Knots-Claim

    That's the one you want. Peter Bakwin chimed in as well.

    One thing to remember... There are perhaps a few hundred rabid fans of this in the long distance hiking world. The overall FKT community is made up of runners of various flavors and hikers are a relatively small part.
    There are perhaps a few thousand casual fans... there are also several rabid detractors who do not wish FKT's to take place at all on hiking trails.

    So it is very early days and best thought of perhaps as a hobby that has taken a few baby steps.
    A decade or two ago at most... nearly everyone of these folks literally knew each other. A competition among peers that grew a bit. Many of these people trained together or at worst had a good idea what each other could do.

    Matt Kirk pioneered the first modern self-supported FKT on the AT (using current standards of documentation and guidelines) Doyle was one of the first in 1973. Ward Leonard around 1990. Matt in 2013. 20 year gaps in FKT's.
    There is of course a group of folks who did fully supported hikes on the AT starting with Horton and more recently Jurek and Meltzer, but that group is not exactly massive either.

    That's literally it for self-supported history on the Appalachian Trail... So everything going on now has been post 2013 on the bulk of this stuff.

    The question now is if this little toddler can figure out how to stand on it's own two feet and move forward.
    Some things in the larger world of FKT's transfer over just fine... some things don't work as well for a solo backpacking trip that lasts several weeks in a remote location.

    So even if there were a few attempts a year... it's not enough to justify any of the things that would make sense for a sanctioned athletic event.
    There is no real money, fame, fortune, etc involved. And it can be years between legitimate attempts.

    Most importantly- if these are going to survive- they need to do so without altering, impacting, or interfering with the trail itself.
    So any solution must have zero impact on the trail.

    At the end of the day this isn't like other events, and that is where the original spirit of the FKT world and pushing things for backpackers overlaps.
    Part of the charm is that there is no 'official course', no aide, no help, no babysitting. You take yourself, you go to the woods, you see what you can do.
    So any solution should not impact the feel of that type of event either.

    I think most of the legit FKT contenders would agree- they would rather their efforts go unclaimed than damage the trail. After all- those who really love them will just do them anyway and keep their mouth shut.

    It is very hard to get folks who are only casually interested or trying without research to do one properly.
    But on the other hand it is not hard at all for those who put the least amount of effort into doing it properly.

    There was a line used in the outside article- guilty until proven innocent. If we are past a gentleman's handshake and honor system.
    FKT's have long had a simple tradition- the burden of proof is on you. If you want anyone to believe you, then it is your responsibility to provide enough evidence to overcome skepticism.
    In that regard there is nothing different when you do this on a longer trail or as a backpacker...

  7. #7

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    Thanks JustBill for your detailed response and fascinating report which is impressively forensic. I have to say that I can see why the FKT thing is a small community it really sounds like it totally double sucks as a pastime but hey some people jump out of planes and off cliffs too so whatev I guess.

    I'd need a rocket to get to Standing bear in 6 days.

    It's kinda sad that there actually isn't a non-invasive tool that protects FKT data during attempts and could serve as a dual purpose gizmo for regular slow hiker types like me track your progress, safety checks, and hey I actually this section or the whole thing.

    Thanks again man!

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
    FKT's have long had a simple tradition- the burden of proof is on you. If you want anyone to believe you, then it is your responsibility to provide enough evidence to overcome skepticism.
    In that regard there is nothing different when you do this on a longer trail or as a backpacker...
    Yeah
    But what constitutes "acceptable" level of proof is evolving with available technology and some recent events.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Yeah
    But what constitutes "acceptable" level of proof is evolving with available technology and some recent events.
    Nah... bottom line really... this is easier than ever before. The only thing missing is that people don't do the homework, can't manage to read a whopping few pages of info on the FKT they mean to claim, and don't do anything to document their hike. Hate to say it, but 'kids these days' sort of applies. There have been several attempts now of people claiming to pursue 'Anish's time' who didn't even read the guidelines she put out. Kathryn Jones thought she could hitch, Dan doesn't understand support, and I'm mildly convinced that Ninja thought it was 'thru-hiker style' to yellow blaze.

    Thru-hiker style doesn't mean what it used to anymore... adventure along the trail from Georgia to Maine seems to be just as valid a 'thru' for many. I seriously have no issue with how you want to spend your vacation or use the trail... but quite a bit of 'trail grapevine' and outright BS rumors getting shared around the campfire on the topic. And some folks have a different understanding of what 'hiking the trail' means. Campfire talk is just that... best to find out the facts yourself in the cold light of day.

    Now we have GPS devices... even if you simply sent 3-5 'okay' messages out when ever you stopped for a break or hit an area you thought you'd have a signal that would go a long way. Putting one out as you pack up in the morning records your start time, and one at night when you go to bed records your finish. A spot is a very powerful tool, and even in the long green tunnel it's not that hard to manage battery life, get messages out, and verify your claim. At current FKT speed the odds are pretty darn good you're hitting an overlook, powerline cut, road crossing, open meadow, or just plain old sleeping. Spot's are not good for continuous tracking yet, some may even argue they are not that great for a critical SOS message. But your FKT doesn't hinge on one single ping making it at one specific time. You make 5-10 attempts a day from cherry picked locations or rest points and you'll get quite a few pings. Even something as simple as leaving your spot outside the shelter when you stop as opposed to still in your pack, laying on the floor, next to you makes a difference. Talking to Peter about it a bit... It was a no-brainer to him- don't use the continuous tracking mode it just sucks the juice.

    Our most recent gent... he had an 'app for that'. Two photos, and only two, were screen shots of guthook apps. I don't own a guthook app but sounds like they tell you exactly where you are with gps. So how hard is it to simply look at your damn app and figure out where you stayed? Or take a screen shot of it. How could you possibly not know where you slept, stopped, or rested each night. Not everyone has it, but most outdoorsfolks have eerily accurate recall on where they were on the trail.

    The AT is perhaps the most heavily documented trail around. AWOL now publishes his guide in PDF format. So you can literally record your miles to the nearest tenth with little or no effort. Brew Davis recorded Jen's exact location, start time, stop time, and a short description. Both Joe's are delaying their posts but still putting down the daily progress they make in 'close enough' to real time. Matt Kirk had a flip phone and still shot daily videos, kept accurate splits, enlisted a close friend at home to document his notes, voice memos/video as he went and took plenty of photos.

    The biggest thing though that blows my mind... we are all walking around with computers in our hands. You don't need Doyle's paper and pen. You don't need to worry about memory, you don't even need to worry about loss of info as it all goes right to the cloud next time you got a signal. Hikers now carry a pound or more of electronics in their pack. If you can post to social media- you can use that computer to fill out spreadsheets, read PDF's, take notes, shoot emails, take screenshots, and a thousand other simple things.

    Being a dirtbag is admirable, but if you're really that poor why are you going for an FKT? Why are you on trail at all really? Yar, a spot is going to run you $300 to get going, or you can rent one if you're poor. Or borrow one. If you got a phone why don't you have a lifeproof case or other means of protecting it like every other hiker seems to have. Spring for one. Or as someone on FB commented- A .25 cent ziplock baggie makes a pretty sweet waterproof case too. Lithium batteries are expensive. Tough tits... just because you can literally step on the trail with zero planning, knowledge or experience doesn't mean it might not take a bit of planning, time, and funds to set an FKT. You can't hitch, you can't take a zero and figure it out, you have to have your stuff dialed in. Fail to plan, plan to fail.

    You can even turn on metadata now so each photo you take is a 'GPS' point. Even if you don't have GPS... a simple date/time stamp with you standing next to a sign or notable point is plenty. I have a few hundred photos from my LT trip and I busted out early. Half of them are pictures of my stupid face standing next to signs, or in the case of the signs that are high up in the air, just signs. They don't have GPS, but anyone who would care to review my hike could pull out a map and tell you exactly where I was standing when I took this photo. You look a bit more and you could at worst ascertain it was daylight. If you really knew the spot you might even be able to tell the time of day based on the shadows.

    You string 10 or 20 pictures in a row and you could get a pretty decent feel for where I was, at what time of day. If I took 15-20 pictures a day like this from start to finish:

    If you know this trail, know how to read a map and mileage sheet you could probably recreate and validate this hike with photos alone. Not even a single line of text from me but the overall time I claimed. You don't need to take my word. My GPS could fail. I could only have a simple camera with date/time with bleeding edge circa 2000 technology. I had a sony "sport' walkman with mix tapes and a 35 mm olympus "water resistant" camera from my first hike on the AT in 2000. I could probably write a detailed split sheet and trip report just from my box of photos and maps. There's no real wizardry involved... if'n this idjut can figure it out so can anybody.
    signs and signs.JPG

    I think it's pretty simple- people will take you as seriously as you take yourself.
    It's a free country, still a free trail. Hike your own hike... even an FKT.
    But if you want to just half ass it and post on social media about your trip... I'm sure your friends and family will enjoy it and you'll have a nice collection of likes to hang on your "wall"
    If you mean to make a serious claim then make one.
    If you have zero reputation, resume, or past experience- figure nobody will take you seriously at all and you better put the most impressive application together you can if you mean to get the job.
    If you have a long resume, great reputation, and past experience- then hold yourself to a even higher standard and show the way.
    This is still the woods. You're a backpacker. Take personal responsibility.

    It's easier than ever before to do so.

  10. #10
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    I can't help but imagine phones will eventually replace Spots. A GPS ping and a picture several times throughout the day (combined with the metadata from the pics). Saves some good weight that way but maybe that isn't secure enough from being manipulated.

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    The technology is definitely already here. Here is a garmin track of someone hiking the PCT. There is little ambiguity and you can even see where he scouted stream crossings in the Sierra.

    https://share.garmin.com/DanielWinsor?doMobile=1
    enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Malto View Post
    The technology is definitely already here. Here is a garmin track of someone hiking the PCT. There is little ambiguity and you can even see where he scouted stream crossings in the Sierra.

    https://share.garmin.com/DanielWinsor?doMobile=1
    What is this witch craft!?!? This is why these FKTs with no GPS tracks are ridiculous. Phones, Spots, watches, etc. So many ways to track a hike with little effort.

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