So far I only have a single outing to go by and my next one will be the similar-food and clothing for up to a week. Based on using an Arc Haul, new FC UL2, new pad and stove it calculates to 33lbs. I know better than to go that heavy but I'm restricted to 6-7 days out because my ride(wife) works.
This next outing is a good example, I wont have an ARC haul so I"m going to be +2lbs minus some food. Trying to make taking the train to Harpers Ferry NOBO work. Want to end a couple miles north of PenMar, where I started the last hike. Problem is 42 miles/6 days = half day segments. That was actually about the pace I did at first with 40+ pounds(one day was truly at 50lbs) but even then, by day 5 my legs had acclimated and I did 9 miles with the 50lbs with no strain. Day 7 saw me jogging on the highway with a food lightened pack, albeit motivated by thoughts of Twisty Top food and soft serve
Yes I came home with 4-5days food but that is less than a pound of MH.
So the way I roll, I just dont see less than 30lbs skin out in my future. I'm fine with that.