Number of Hikers Increasing, Stable or Decreasin?

[Dan Roper]

I've seen the thread regarding increased thru-hiker attempts and bigger bubbles on the AT the past few years. There seems to be a consensus that AT use is way up. But I haven't noticed an increase in use of the trails I frequent, including the AT (at least when I'm on it). The amount of use definitely hasn't kept pace with the increase in population. It seems to me that fewer and fewer young folks are comfortable in the woods, most of them growing up in an electronic age where the woods are far more alien than they are to those of us a bit older. And it seems to me far more common for folks who do get out to stay tethered to cars, pulling into overlooks, walking a few feet on a trail, and returning to their cars having enjoyed a magnificent day "outdoors."

If I'm right, then use of trails will actually decline in coming years. Perhaps we in our 40s, 50s, 60s and older are a bubble of our own. As we age, will there be fewer hikers to take our places? Is the electronic age breeding a new generation for whom the friction of distance, in Aldo Leopold's words, is insurmountable?

My 40 years of hiking and backpacking has been primarily in north Georgia, east Tennessee and western North Carolina. I've been in Georgia's Cohutta Wilderness Area regularly since the early '90s. The number of hikers on CWA trails doesn't seem to have increased, even though the population in the surrounding areas (Atlanta, north Georgia, Chattanooga) has boomed. Even the popular Jacks River Falls area seems about the same. Sometimes there will be several score people there (just as in the '90s) but other times I have it to myself for hours on a Friday afternoon.

I started section hiking the AT annually in 2007 at Springer and reached the Grayson Highlands in 2017. Most of my backpacking on the AT has been done in July, August, and September, with a scattering early or later. I haven't noticed greater use now than in the past.

I've section hiked the Pinhoti Trail in north Georgia in 2017-18 from High Point to Highway 52 (about 75 woods, non-road miles). I can't recall meeting another hiker on the Pinhoti, though I have encountered a couple of mountain bikers. A week ago I did a 15-mile stretch near Fort Mountain and didn't see another hiker but did meet one very overweight man in a pickup truck at a trail head and another on an ATV near a trail head. Other than that it was just woods and splashing creeks and sore feet.

What do you ladies and gents think? Is use of our hiking trails keeping pace with the population increase, holding steady or declining...or somewhere in between?

[Leo L.]

I can only speak fo my area (the Alps) and there definitely is an ever increasing use of outdoors.
By far the most of it is things that get advertised: Going up by cable car, (BC-)skiing, snowshoeing, MTBs, via ferrata, rock climbing and hiking.
The net of established pists, paths and tracks is dense and ever growing, up to a size that there is hardly any wilderness left.
That said, the increasing number of people use the developed ways exclusively. Go out of the way for a few km and you'll be alone.

I can't say that young people in general live an electronic life exclusively.
What I see watching our kids and their mates, they live that electronig part well, but at some point in their life just start doing sports and/or go outdoors.
They do bring all the electronics with them, just the same as you can read here at WB ("How to charge my phone when hiking?"), and they might have a different approach to nature than we old guys have. But hey, didn't we ourself have an approach different to the one our parents had, back then?

[peakbagger]

The popular areas of whites are a zoo of late. There was a peak in the late seventies and early eighties and then usage dropped quite a bit then gradually started climbing. Lots of new faces on the trails lately, unfortunately what has changed is they are not members of organized clubs so they tend to be somewhat more clueless. They also tend to be drawn to clicking off the "lists" so use is getting overly concentrated on the quickest way to get up mountain on their list. Far fewer backpackers except on the AT, head into the more remote backcountry areas away from the AT and usage is quite low to the point where Wilderness trails are growing in.

[Sarcasm the elf]

There was an interesting article posted here a couple of years ago looking at outdoor use. According to the figures presented in it, apparently participatiob in day use outdoor activities such as day hiking, climbing, and mountain biking are all increasing, however multiday activities such as camping and backpacking are showi declines in participation.

[egilbe]

I see alot of young people when I'm hiking. As peakbagger mentions, they seem clueless, but that just may be from my perspective of spending a lifetime out of doors. At one time, I was just as clueless.

I think Wilderness trails are growing in due to USFS refusal to maintain them. I very rarely see blowdowns removed. People won't walk on trails that aren't maintained. Bushwacking up a mountain is hard. Much easier following a trail.

It's predominantly young people that I see up here in New England on the AT. I'm not sure what the percentage by age starts and completes the trail, but I think the data is skewed to younger people.

[evyck da fleet]

I see an increase in older hikers. People who are trying to stay active as they age. There are still you people out there but they have more sporting options then those nearing retirement. They’ve grown up with electronics so they bring them with them just as your generation would have had they been as available.

Obviously the more popular hikes are going to be overcrowded and the ones newbies flock to first. The JMT is a prime example with the permits. Relatively new hikers will follow whatever recommendations they can find online.While some of the seasoned hikers on this site would have no problem incorporating High Sierra Route and other trails to natural hot springs. Like everything else there’s a learning curve. If most new hikers stay to the bucket list trails there’s a good chance your favorite local trail won’t change much.

[TX Aggie]

With the digital age now comes the AT Thru Hiker VLOGs, and they are piquing the interest of the 20s-30s crowd. I’m certain this will draw a lot more attention to the AT, the PCT to some extent, and maybe one or two other major trails, but I’m not convinced it will lead to an overall increase in the number of backpackers on the average Trail. I’m actually interested in how the completion rate will be affected in the coming years. Many of these VLOGGers make the AT look easier and almost stress free. I know there were several last year that took down their channels when they aborted their thru attempt so there are less failures for the kids to see, again adding to the perspective that it’s just a walk in the woods.
I’m also curious that of the younger ones that do end up completing a thru, if that was their entire intent, then will they stick with backpacking once they’re finished. It seems there are an awful lot of them that have never backpacked until 6-12 months before they start their attempt.

[Dan Roper]

There will always be a small percentage of youths (and people in general) that "march to the beat of a different drummer;" that "go Thoreau" and head to a Walden's Pond; that seek the wilderness. Always has been; always will be.

But does the generation that came of age in the 1950s, '60s, '70s, '80s and '90s form a bubble. These were the first that came of age in an era in which young people had free time; prior thereto, the young were needed or were marrying at 16 or 18 and already building a family. But the Baby Boom generation and the one that followed had some freedom to do things after high school or college and a certain percentage turned to the woods. That generation seems to represent an outsized percentage of people outdoors (and on Whiteblaze). But that generation is aging, the vanguard entering its 70s and 80s. They're still active but they won't be in ten or twenty years, in all likelihood. They are, in effect, a bubble.

What about the kids in their teens now? I know a small percentage will seek the outdoors, but will it be nearly as large as the Baby Boom Bubble? Or will the numbers decline, so that with the passing of the Boomers (and Generation X) there will be a decline in outdoorsmen and outdoorswomen.

I think so, but that's purely a hypothesis on my part. I'm interested in your thoughts and appreciate the replies thus far.

[Sarcasm the elf]

Mags wrote the following take on it, which includes a link to the article I mentioned earlier:

https://pmags.com/death-of-backpacking-a-response

[peakbagger]

The other big increase in the whites are trail runners. They are controversial as the state fish and game (responsible for rescues) requires every hiker to be equipped with appropriate gear and safety equipment which generally implies a backpack. The lists are located at this link http://hikesafe.com/index.php?page=full-gear-list. Few if any trail runners I encounter have any gear beyond a hydration pack that has space for possibly car keys and cell phone and a wallet at most. In some areas where the trail bed has been screed in and hardened with rocks, a small minority of runners are running on the outside of the scree walls on top of the alpine plants that were trying to reestablish the areas that the walls were intended to protect. Some of the trail runs like the Pemi loop are in the most remote areas (for the East) so the possibility of an unexpected overnight is possibility and nylon shorts and top with trail runners is not going to provide a lot of warmth when immobile. Luckily they are still a relative minority so I have not heard of any high profile rescues.

[soilman]

Back in the mid 70's when I did my first AT hike there seemed to be a large number of local shops that offered gear for backpacking and REI and EMS were more of a place to buy gear than attire. Interest in backpacking seemed to have increased. I attribute this to the increasing interest in the environment and popular culture. Remember the cover of the John Denver album "Rocky Mountain High" with John standing in the middle of a mountain stream wearing hiking boots? Hiking chic. Soon everyone wanted a puffy jacket and big leather hiking boots with red laces. It seemed that in the 80's trails were less crowded and the local shops were out of business. I thought backpacking was on the decline.


The ATC's numbers of completed hikes shows a doubling of reported completions every decade since 1970 so there has been a consistent increase of 2000 milers. It seems to me that there are an increasing number of novice backpackers who attempt a thru hike. For many this is the first time they have backpacked overnight. I have met people who had never set up their tent until they got to Springer. The AT has become a destination for many due to the increased awareness of the trail. Back in the 70's many people had never heard of the AT. There is a certain percentage that fall in love with the backpacking and go on to hike other trails. Others who were not successful go on to become section hikers. I wonder how many people who attempt a thru hike, successful or not return to the woods?


Increasing numbers can be good and bad. It can bring increased pressure on resources but can also lead to more people stepping up and volunteering to maintain the trails. A big concern I have is the graying of the trail clubs. It seems that most of the folks I have encountered doing trail maintenance are in their golden years.

[Mags]

I update this article every year or so because everytime the article is linked, I get told the stats are old, or NPS stats are suspect, anecdotes (!) say otherwise, etc. etc. etc. .. But the 2016 stats from various sources, published in 2017 and linked in my article, show the same trends consistent over the years:


* Be it raw numbers or as a percentage of a population, overall backcountry use is indeed going down esp from the peak of the 1970s or even the 1980s.

* Yes, thru-hiking numbers are up, but that is a drop in the statistical bucket. Also, thru-hiking is much different from backpacking. The allure is often the journey itself or the cultural aspects esp among the more well-known trails. How many thru-hikers backpack beyond thru-hikes? How many do the AT or PCT, call it good, and don't pick up a pack all that often after?

* Day use activities are increasing. More variety of activities to choose from (day hiking, trail running, mountain biking, etc), they are more accessible, and the activities seem to fit in better with the busy lifestyle we now have for various reasons.

(And, yes, I did copy and paste this text above into my article just now. )

[Dogwood]

As long as culture, such as in the modern U.S., is built on the belief man is separate from and above the environment - the Natural world - disconnected from it, there will be consequences such as might be true in Mag's article. Much of this belief in the U.S. is rooted in mis understood religious practices.

It's a sad plight for Nature when the profound respectful sustainable connectivity to it that previously existed is intentionally destroyed to replace it to a profound disrespectful self serving unsustainable connection to money.

[Starchild]

In the Hudson Valley of NY numbers are way up, so are the white mountains of NH, So much so that it makes the news several times, either trail overuse issues, maintance projects to accommodate the hiker number of hikers, parking lot expansion, illegal parking due to overflowing lots, bus shuttles from other lots, new parkign lot and spur trail construction.

I would say the numbers of hikers are about 10x or more then what they were 20 years ago.

And they are also the younger generation. Social media and Meetup in particular has really connected with them and pulled them out to the woods in large numbers.

[peakbagger]

When I am out bushwhacking in the whites I encounter old campsites way off from any major trails usually near a stream, waterfall or other attraction . They usually consist of an old fire ring some flat spots made by moving rocks and more often than not old beer cans from the seventies/early eighties. Around popular areas there may be 100s of old campsites radiating out into the woods. They haven't been used for years but the soil was compacted and are slowly growing in or covered with blowdowns but the fire rings and occasional hacked trees remain. Most of these areas were usually a half a day to day in from a trailhead. In general the evidence in the field is that there was whole lot more overnight backcountry usage in the past. I think a lot of the LNT principles were developed as result of that era as the woods were a mess. The Whites tried a permit system in at least one local wilderness area for few years at the tail end of the boom but the drop in usage in the mid eighties was fairly steep and they dropped them. I heard the comment that "yuppies didn't hike". I know of many folks who would establish semi permanent seasonal campsites, they would return weekend after weekend to head out in the woods to get stoned and party. Frequently they left their tents and other gear at the end of the season and occasionally we encounter it.

I was in high school for the tail end of the boom and basic backpacking gear could be bought in most department stores, I picked up a primus stove and lantern set at a WT Grant store when it was closing down and nylon Camel brand tents were sold at many stores. There were fewer outdoor retailers, the choice was basic catalog like campmor or REI. We used to make occasional trips to EMS in North Conway for the high end stuff and eventually there was store in my town. Beans had some backpacking gear but it was pricey and in general they really were not the supplier of choice for most backpackers. Frostline kits were popular, I know many folks who borrowed moms sewing machine and sewed their own.

[Wyoming]

I see alot of young people when I'm hiking. As peakbagger mentions, they seem clueless, but that just may be from my perspective of spending a lifetime out of doors. At one time, I was just as clueless.

I think Wilderness trails are growing in due to USFS refusal to maintain them. I very rarely see blowdowns removed. People won't walk on trails that aren't maintained. Bushwacking up a mountain is hard. Much easier following a trail.

It's predominantly young people that I see up here in New England on the AT. I'm not sure what the percentage by age starts and completes the trail, but I think the data is skewed to younger people.

Regarding the USFS (as one of their trail maintainers here in AZ) I can say that it is NOT a refusal. It is a huge lack of funds. The USFS over the last 20 years and especially the last 10 years is shifting into becoming a wildland fire fighting organization primarily. Out here in the west about 50% of the personnel have been moved to firefighting and there is literally almost no money for trail maintenance at all. Where I live about 80-90% of trail maintenance is performed by volunteers with minimal permanent employee oversight.

Trail maintenance is also concentrated on the trails which get the heaviest use - makes sense. There are lots of trails in AZ which are very seldom traveled which have seen no maintenance for 20+ years and there is no likelihood they will see any in the future. You want deep by yourself hiking we got it.

The same issue is happening to the National Park system. I am also a volunteer for trail work in the Grand Canyon. Last year they had the budget for trail work almost completely gutted. They only have resources for paying for trail work on the 3 main trails and not enough volunteers even to take care of all the toilet facilities below the rim. If this goes on for a few more years there are going to be big issues. Just fyi there are also trails in the Grand Canyon which have not had any trail maintenance in 15-20 years.

I saw some figures a few years ago that the frequency of backcounty backpacking is far below what it was in the mid-70's. It may have come up some but I really think the AT/PCT thru hiker publicity thing is making folks think it has grown a lot when in reality it has not. They are just mostly all at the same places. I do remember 12-14 years ago there was a lot of talk here on WB about the huge surge of AT hikers. Now we also talk about the 3500 starting the PCT every year. Not sure this is a bad thing overall. As long as you avoid the shelters and the towns there is little in the way of problems.

The age demographic is skewed towards the young (under 25) and the old (over 50) with few in between. A lot more young than old of course. As to percentages of age groups who finish - I have no idea.

[BillyGr]

In the Hudson Valley of NY numbers are way up, so are the white mountains of NH, So much so that it makes the news several times, either trail overuse issues, maintance projects to accommodate the hiker number of hikers, parking lot expansion, illegal parking due to overflowing lots, bus shuttles from other lots, new parkign lot and spur trail construction.

I would say the numbers of hikers are about 10x or more then what they were 20 years ago.

And they are also the younger generation. Social media and Meetup in particular has really connected with them and pulled them out to the woods in large numbers.

Perhaps those online methods you mention have something to do with the overloaded parking areas in some places?

Not just that there are more hikers overall, but that if people are deciding to go to some place on one of those sites they might be more likely to all drive to the site to meet, where in the past groups (where they more likely knew each other beforehand) would have met at an offsite location (say, someone's house) and then driven to the trail in one or two vehicles?

So now you have maybe 2x the number of hikers but 3 or 4x the number of vehicles needing to be parked at a trailhead?

[Mags]

N.M.

I had this same discussion in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and now 2018.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Dan Roper]

I've probably participated in the discussion in the past, but I appreciate you and everybody for participating again.

It's an interesting societal shift, and similar things are taking place (for a variety of reasons) with hunting and even farming. Our connections to the land are decreasing.

What I've taken from this thus far is the possibility that thru-hiking the AT numbers are way up while most outdoor use seems to be declining.

Rising obesity rates may also contribute. A few weeks ago, I found a "Yellowstone in Winter" documentary filmed in the early '80s on YouTube. The clothing, hair and car styles seemed archaic (how has so much time passed so quickly), but what I found really startling was that everyone in the documentary - scores of visitors and workers - were skinny.

[Lone Wolf]

increasin'. and not becuz folks are really into being outdoors. lotsa youtube AT party vids appeal to 20 somethings