Karel Sabbe supported attempt

[matthew.d.kirk]

And if he can finish by around 1230 Tuesday, he beats Scott’s time by 5 days. Might be possible!
The tracker showed up between Pleasant Pond and Moxie Pond about 748 today.

Time to dust off my prediction from way back before halfway (posts #151 & 152)

40d,20h to tie his southern split!?!?

Would have to be on top by Tuesday, August 28, 2018 at 12:31:48 am. 41 hours to do last ~145 miles @ 3.5 mph avg. Epic push... Possible?!

Closer to reality than I thought... Metronome Matt is muy impressed!

[Just Bill]

Strength to Karel!
73CDEF30-1791-48EF-B5D7-196487F29841.jpg

[matthew.d.kirk]

Strength to Karel!
73CDEF30-1791-48EF-B5D7-196487F29841.jpg

Nice looking Sunday breakfast, bill.

Correction to last post: I rechecked his track data and it looks Karel passed near halfway at 20d,13h,10m. So for an even split, he would have to tag Big K at 41d,2h,20m or Tuesday at 6:51:48 am. This buys him 6+ more hours, so just under 48 hours to go ~145 miles at 3 mph. Will still need to pull his first all-nighter of the trip, but he could very well pull this off!

[chknfngrs]

Holy smokes!

[TimDeVriendt]

if'n I understand correctly; the advantage of this device is that it's network independent.

Though perhaps victim to a bit of good ol american capitalism might be getting in the way?
Having tried a few 'off brand' phones over the years I've found that just because 'boost/cricket' or metroPCS has an 'agreement' with the big boys doesn't mean that you get full coverage or priority on their network. Even in Chicago and the surrounding metro area... the amount of drops, misses, or even misfired text messages was way higher than it should have been.

The Trackers have a special multi-roaming sim so can (and do) connect on any network. So no problems with agreements that one provider might have with providers in other countries or things like that which might indeed happen on your normal mobile subscription

The previous advice of turning down the pings per hour still seems sound. The buffer seems more than sufficient to track 2-3 days at a crack at a 20 minute interval.
My casual glances show the same pattern of large gaps and very dense tracking.
20 pings while he eats soup/bread, checks out the hut, and uses the outhouse at Madison are not much use, and missing nearly the whole Carter Moriah traverse while ripping off a blistering pace is not good at all.

My feeling is that if you weren't trying to catch every minute... the buffer would fill in the blanks and produce one of the better options we've seen yet.

The buffer never has been full, at the moment reception is indeed terrible, but Karel's crew informed me earlier today that they switched to the backup tracker so that there would be no risk of having a full buffer.
Some people have stated that the buffering for the new tracker seems to be working less than the previous (2G) tracker, but that is not the issue. Reason is that the 2G tracker has a far superior GPS chip in it, and all the jumps in the tracking line with the new tracker are because the tracker didn't get a position (like what happens for example with a SPOT also all the time) and not because the buffer was full.
Karel's crew also told me they might drive to Greenville this evening with one of the trackers to upload the full buffer, so that we could see also all the data from the last 2-3 days.

[Chair-man]

I Don't know if this was mentioned before or not but but Karel's name is misspelled in the title of this thread. His last name is spelled Sabbe not Saabe and if you google his real name there are some good links as to who Karel is including his fb page with updates. https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C....0.JMecJFOt_yk

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Past Monson, about mile 2085 I think. So incredible to see him do this day after day! Finish it, Karel!

[matthew.d.kirk]

What do you think? I'm thinking he'll grab one more night's rest south of the Barren-Chairbacks. Then he's set up for a ~100 mile push straight thru to the finish. Relatively speaking, the terrain would ease up for his push thru the night, with exception of the climb up Katahdin in the wee hours on Tuesday morning. Full moon too, but 50% chance of showers and mostly cloudy after 10 pm Monday. If all goes well, he could greet the sunrise on top. Wow!

[chknfngrs]

What do you think? I'm thinking he'll grab one more night's rest south of the Barren-Chairbacks. Then he's set up for a ~100 mile push straight thru to the finish. Relatively speaking, the terrain would ease up for his push thru the night, with exception of the climb up Katahdin in the wee hours on Tuesday morning. Full moon too, but 50% chance of showers and mostly cloudy after 10 pm Monday. If all goes well, he could greet the sunrise on top. Wow!

This would be amazing

[James GAME2009]

Absolutely incredible hike. It's been fun following every day. Karel has killed it, every single day, without fail. He certainly hasn't had perfect weather or conditions but he's more than gotten it done. I think what he managed to do in the Whites, with the very poor weather, is perhaps the most impressive part. He's earned this one the hard way. Looking forward to seeing how the last bit of trail plays out.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

A 100% guess, and I don't think I've been right yet, but I think since he can finish Tuesday with or without sleep, he gets a little sleep Monday night and finishes later in the day Tuesday.

[pbakwin]

We all wondered how Karel would do once he hit the harder terrain up north. Well, safe to say he's hit it out of the park! In the past week Karel has averaged something like 30% more miles per day than SB did over the same ground. Whoa! Whether he does a final massive overnight push or not, his time is going to be very solid. He did not have one "bad" day in 6 weeks! Simply put, to beat Karel's time you someone will have to be a better athlete than Karel -AND- not make any mistakes -AND- not get hurt.

The fans who left the stadium early to beat the traffic sure didn't miss a nail biter, but they did miss an amazing performance, no question.

[chknfngrs]

I don’t know warren Doyle but enjoyed reading his insight on Deerfoot’s Facebook. Basically saying he thinks no one will be able to beat this.

[Just Bill]

The Trackers have a special multi-roaming sim so can (and do) connect on any network. So no problems with agreements that one provider might have with providers in other countries or things like that which might indeed happen on your normal mobile subscription



The buffer never has been full, at the moment reception is indeed terrible, but Karel's crew informed me earlier today that they switched to the backup tracker so that there would be no risk of having a full buffer.
Some people have stated that the buffering for the new tracker seems to be working less than the previous (2G) tracker, but that is not the issue. Reason is that the 2G tracker has a far superior GPS chip in it, and all the jumps in the tracking line with the new tracker are because the tracker didn't get a position (like what happens for example with a SPOT also all the time) and not because the buffer was full.
Karel's crew also told me they might drive to Greenville this evening with one of the trackers to upload the full buffer, so that we could see also all the data from the last 2-3 days.

Tim-
Probably a bit of translation loss...
I have no doubt you have access to all the provider networks with the sim card you used; but this is America . Where 'premium' access, VIP access, priority access, and dozens of layers of access exist. If one can charge a fee... then it makes sense to charge a higher fee whenever possible. That was what I was implying with my previous experience. I had cell coverage with the off brand carriers; however if an official branded customer paying top dollar needed the line then my call was interrupted or bumped. It happened often enough I had to give up. Same phone, same network, same permission... just not the same.

Regardless-
Your comment on the GPS chip makes more sense.
I'd guess this was a bit of a scramble for your company to come up with a tracker once the 2g issue came up?

Overall- your solution seems an ideal one and we're just looking to see you get the kinks worked out.
Seems like if you put your tracker together with the right parts and pieces for the American market it would be a winner.
But regardless; seems that's not really the issue.

[matthew.d.kirk]

I think since he can finish Tuesday with or without sleep, he gets a little sleep Monday night and finishes later in the day Tuesday.

I think that's a safe bet. Afterall, he might be a tad tired after 40 days @ 52.4 mpd. And as you and PB say, +/- 6 hours does nothing to detract from this amazing performance. That said, Cloud Pond @5:48 am, so 25 hours for 95.4 miles to match southern split... if he's feeling fiesty

[Just Bill]

Nice looking Sunday breakfast, bill.

Correction to last post: I rechecked his track data and it looks Karel passed near halfway at 20d,13h,10m. So for an even split, he would have to tag Big K at 41d,2h,20m or Tuesday at 6:51:48 am. This buys him 6+ more hours, so just under 48 hours to go ~145 miles at 3 mph. Will still need to pull his first all-nighter of the trip, but he could very well pull this off!

HA! My wife took the kiddos to visit a friend so I had an all nighter of my own cranking out some bridge hammocks and getting them shipped off to happy hangers.
Bloody Mary's are a more appropriate sunday breakfast... that was a fine collection though for an all night binge of well wishes to the belgian.

We all wondered how Karel would do once he hit the harder terrain up north. Well, safe to say he's hit it out of the park! In the past week Karel has averaged something like 30% more miles per day than SB did over the same ground. Whoa! Whether he does a final massive overnight push or not, his time is going to be very solid. He did not have one "bad" day in 6 weeks! Simply put, to beat Karel's time you someone will have to be a better athlete than Karel -AND- not make any mistakes -AND- not get hurt.

The fans who left the stadium early to beat the traffic sure didn't miss a nail biter, but they did miss an amazing performance, no question.

Indeed... quite impressive.

Though I have to say that overall he basically does 'match the curve'. I've long felt the AT has a natural speed limit. One of my skeptical tools that comes in handy for shenanigans.
That said... plug in Karel's effort thus far and while quite amazing and seemingly improbable on the surface; when put on a graph he's simply a faster version of previous hikes really.

Not that it makes it any less impressive, but it does take out the 'mutant' factor for me. As well as greatly reduce the skeptic's take on such solid work I'm inclined to have when one exceeds 40 in the whites.

The complete lack of bad days and clockwork output translates to a very fast... but very believable hike.

I put in two 50's and a 60 to finish it off. Even if that performance in the whites and southern maine cost him and catches up with him... I'd guess the barn is smelling strong and he'll power through.

AT speed hikes- Speedy 3.pdf

Karl and Jurek beat Karel Harpers to Waynesboro...
And Jen and Karl both ripped of blistering finishes fontana to Springer... but it would make little sense for Karel or any Nobo to rip off the line.

Overall- compared to a theoretical 40 and 45 day hike... he was below pace for nearly all of virginia where I was looking for 60's.
But he bottomed out much less in the north than either of those lines.

Basically- roughly the same flow but looks like he held back in favor of steady energy conservation to see him through safely, smoothly and uninjured on his way to Glencliff.
And with gas in the tank now he's put the pedal to the metal for the last quarter.

Safe finish!

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Part of the story is time spent on trail. Karel seems to have had a lot of days where he was done around 6 or 7pm. While I think this has helped him stay relatively fresh and uninjured, it is a place where one could make improvement. All other factors of hiking/running speed being similar, no mistakes, decent weather, etc, being the same, someone able to put in longer days without wearing down or getting injured will beat his record. Whether one can actually put in those longer days without getting injured/tired is certainly debatable. But even just an hour longer on trail at 3.5mph is 140 miles over 40 days, which would take another 2.5 days off the record.

This is not at all to second guess Karel on limiting his days. On the contrary it showed extraordinary patience and planning to come up with and stick to his plan and know that if he could keep it up day after day he'd make gains in leaps and bounds over those who suffered off days. At least I presume that was his plan.

[matthew.d.kirk]

But even just an hour longer on trail at 3.5mph is 140 miles over 40 days, which would take another 2.5 days off the record.

Sounds good in theory, but most times there won't be roadside access to crew another 3.5 miles up the trail. Which brings us back to the discussion (from the Harvey thread) on the efficacy of a hybrid approach as a way to chip away day by day.

[chknfngrs]

Deerfoot should live stream his summit signal strength be dammed

[CalebJ]

Even if it's not live, a video of the last few hours would be fun to watch at some point.