How busy is a Nobo thru hike?

[Khaul]

As the title says, how busy is it?

I'm aware that anything up to 50 people can start a day so I'm expecting crowds at hostels/shelters the first few weeks but does this thin out after that? I really want to do it with my partner hopefully 2019 maybe 2020 but wondering whether to do the CDT/PCT instead if it's crowded all the way along. Hostels fully booked up all the way along or shelter camp sites over flowing doesn't sound overly appealing. 10 or 15 people fine but 40+ each day every day is not. Just looking for a nice mix of peace and quiet some days and other days being social with people. I do understand that weekends and/or holidays like 4th July bring out the crowds more so.

[Venchka]

Starting when?
January-February no crowds. Until the late March-April crowd passes Y’all.
The answer: It depends.
An early PCT start in a low snow year could be uncrowded.
Optimum start time on the CDT varies annually to weekly.
Wayne

[Lone Wolf]

go SOBO starting july 1st

[DownYonder]

https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/

[Lauriep]

Thinning out of northbounders takes place rather slowly. Almost 50% make it to Harpers Ferry, a thousand miles north of Springer Mountain, Georgia. In June, more than 30 thru-hikers a day on average come through Harpers Ferry in the month of June. That doesn't mean 30 thru-hikers are at every shelter, because there there are two or three shelters a day's hike apart in most areas. On the other hand, there are lots of other backpackers out on the Trail, especially in summer.

Some thru-hikers have found the amount of hikers is just right if you start mid-Trail and head north in late April or May (but do some research regarding location and timing: http://appalachiantrail.org/home/exp...iking/flipflop). The second half of the hike on the southern end of the Trail is more solitary, but it only takes two other hikers to make a "tramily." On the second half of flip flop thru-hike you potentially have both other flip floppers as well as southbounders to hike with, but the combined numbers are much fewer than the nobos even on the north end of the Trail.

[Khaul]

Thinking of starting early March and we both would rather nobo it due to finishing in Maine rather than starting it.

How are hostels after a few weeks? Would I need to phone ahead or can we just turn up? We aren't on a budget and plan to zero maybe every 10 days at a hostel or best western or something. Planning to enjoy the trail rather than smash it out in 3-4 months. More likely 5 months for us.

I did the Camino last year and I hated the crowds and fully booked hostels constantly. There wasn't much in the way of peace and quiet to think. With all the AT films/books that have been coming out and hearing that the trail is getting busier each year, I'm just a little cautious.

[Venchka]

Start after the bubble but in time to get to Baxter about October 1ish. That’s 5 months from May 1.
Wayne

[Patrickjd9]

I did the Camino last year and I hated the crowds and fully booked hostels constantly. There wasn't much in the way of peace and quiet to think. With all the AT films/books that have been coming out and hearing that the trail is getting busier each year, I'm just a little cautious.

You might be a candidate for a flip-flop. Perhaps start north of the Smokies or at Damascus, VA in March, and head north. You'd stay ahead of the big crowds, and be through the mid-Atlantic before the summer heat kicks in.

[MtDoraDave]

Start after the bubble but in time to get to Baxter about October 1ish. That’s 5 months from May 1.
Wayne

Yup, either that or start February 1st, ahead of the big crowds. You'll have a good bit of snow and ice this way, but you'll finish before summer.
Hot and light, or cold and heavier.

[BuckeyeBill]

Khaul,

I'm still planning my AT hike, but have done several sections. If this year was an indicator or a fluke, March and April were snow piled and drifted so bad that I would had my snow shoes shipped to me. I have never had any problems with over crowding at hostels, but I didn't stay at one longer than 24 hours. Show up at 1pm or 2pm, shower, laundry, restock supplies, get a night's rest and back on the trail before 1-2pm. I have prescriptions filled by a nationwide pharmacy so I don't need any shipped to me. I do switch out winter gear for summer gear by a UPS to a hostel or motel that accepts them.

I use a hammock which allows me to setup a nice distance from the shelter so noise, farting, snoring and mice doesn't bother me. I have already done the PCT and CDT but was in better shape then. The AT is a totally different trail than those two as you can hit a resupply point every few days. The PCT and CDT require larger amount of supplies and at times you need someone to cache some water for you. Also there aren't as many Trail Angels either.

The ATC recommends not starting March 1st or 15th or April 1st. You can voluntarily register your hike start date here. It helps to show how many others that registered are leaving that date.

[Emerson Bigills]

I started Feb 20 a couple years ago and never had crowd issues. Only one time did I not get into a shelter I wanted because it was full (Wayah Bald shelter in NC). If you wait until early March, there will be considerably more people on the trail, competing for shelter, campsite and hostel spots. Some like the increased social aspects, some don't. I developed plenty of great hiker relationships and credit those folks with getting me through the tough days.

I finished in 140 days, so while some of the faster hikers from the bubble caught and passed me, the bulk of the crowds never overcame the buffer of a week or so that I had at the start. Yep, there will be some snow, but if that sends you home for good, you probably would have found another reason to leave anyway.

Honestly, the most people I experienced on the trail was just after Harpers Ferry in the first week of May, when the flip floppers were starting out and mixing in with the NOBO's. It took about three weeks, but we outran them and it was pretty much just NOBO's for a while. Things get crowded on the Long Trail in VT and then in ME, when the SOBO's are coming at you, but by then, you really don't care. You are on auto pilot.

[colorado_rob]

I think you'll be put off by the crowds starting a traditional NOBO thru in March, Khaul. I hiked the trail some years ago (2013), starting in early April (probably not much different than March) and found the "crowds" to be slightly annoying, but acceptable. Then last year I started a repeat for my wife's benefit in March. What a difference 4 years made. It was basically very crowded, everywhere. Hostels were fully booked, shelters were always full, etc, etc.

I was really surprised it had gotten so much busier. We still enjoyed ourselves, but I wouldn't consider ever starting a Springer NOBO that time of year again. And I'm a social person for the most part.

The alternatives are sweeter, meaning basically a flip-flop, as Lauriep already discussed, I'd do the Harpers (or some other place near half way)->north, then Harpers->south thing, but lots of other options are possible, like if you want to finish on Katahdin, go Harpers->south then Harpers->north. If you do the latter, you will run into the bubble on your Harpers->south, but since you're going against the main flow, it won't last too long.

I personally would avoid a later start as that will make it that much hotter in the south. Some can deal with those conditions, I basically have a hard time with heat and humidity. You being from the UK might not be used to the SE USA summer heat either.

[Khaul]

Thanks guys, this is some great info.

So a mid feb start might be better. I'm trying to avoid a flip flop if possible.

I'm planning on tenting it where possible. I know some sections require you to use the shelters if they aren't full. Planning to use a zpacks triplex tent for our tent. 3 man tent will reduce arguements and smell! Is the tents footprint likely to be an issue around shelters? I'd give a hammock a go but my partner isn't keen on it.

[peakbagger]

Unless you have experience with sustained winter hiking and camping, a mid February start is going to add considerable challenge to a thru hike. Gear weight goes way up, daily mileage can go down, unplanned zero days are going to happen. Its highly dependent on what sort of winter there is in the southern whites, some years folks get good conditions, other years not so good. Weather patterns are getting more chaotic and that adds challenge.

[Slo-go'en]

I left Harpers Ferry SOBO on April 21th this spring. My first week on the trail, I meet 2-3 NOBO hikers who had started in late Jan or early Feb. I don't know how many started that early, but I do know that less then a handful were still on the trail.

It wasn't until I was nearly out of the SNP that I started to meet NOBO's on a more regular bases. These were the ones who started in early March and there still wasn't a whole lot of them.

As I got farther south, the number of NOBO I meet in a day slowly picked up. First I'd meet one or two early in the morning who had somehow found a place to camp between shelters. Then around noon I'd start to meet the ones who were at the shelter south of me the night before. Then I'd meet the ones who came into that nights shelter.

It wasn't until I was almost to Daleville the middle of May that the numbers really started to increase. I was starting to meet upwards of 50 a day by that time. This was the combined number I'd pass during the day and the number I'd meet that night. These were mid March starters.

I decided to go home at Daleville, mostly due the fact all the thunderstorms and heavy rain was starting to crank up and it was getting hot and humid. Plus Trail Days was about to finish up and I know once that happened, the trail in VA would suddenly get really busy. There would be groups of 20-30 dropped off at every trail head in the state Monday morning and I didn't want to run into that.

[colorado_rob]

Unless you have experience with sustained winter hiking and camping, a mid February start is going to add considerable challenge to a thru hike. Gear weight goes way up, daily mileage can go down, unplanned zero days are going to happen. Its highly dependent on what sort of winter there is in the southern whites, some years folks get good conditions, other years not so good. Weather patterns are getting more chaotic and that adds challenge.

Yep, might be kinda rough out there.... On the other hand, our dear OP is from the UK, tough folks over there (we froze our butts hiking in the UK in May....). One mitigating factor is the close proximity to towns and warm-up places early on the trail (for most of the trail, for that matter). Get a good weather app and plan well.

Perhaps start in very late February? There seems to be a spike in starts on March 1 (and March 15, April 1, etc).

[swisscross]

Yup, either that or start February 1st, ahead of the big crowds. You'll have a good bit of snow and ice this way, but you'll finish before summer.
Hot and light, or cold and heavier.

It was busy February this year. Almost 20 tents and a full shelters on my section hike. Deep gap to NOC. Started Feb 3rd...meaning most started a week earlier. It was cold, wet, snowing.

[tdoczi]

last week of may and 1st week of june in the vicinity of pearisburg was swamped with thrus. probably the most i have ever seen, and i for better or worse seem to have a tendency to end up often hiking in crowds of them. i wasnt expecting it this time. what was even more interesting was most professed to be march starters. by contrast, in 2012 on a trip in SNP at around the same time (about a week later) i was surrounded by people who had started in april. i really cant explain this. lot of slow hikers this year all bunched up post trail days? overall huge surge in numbers across the board? dont know. i really figured theyd all be a couple weeks out of damascus by then and i'd be in behind them, but that turned out to be a major fail. it was to the points where towns/hostels/hotels etc couldnt handle the quantities. first time i had ever seen that.

[Venchka]

At the risk of ruining some of my favorite places on earth, there are other places to hike in the USA for 2 to 5 months.
CDT: Pick a 2-3 month chunk. SOBO from Canada to Jackson Hole Airport, WY? Wyoming and Colorado section? Endless possibilities.
Think outside the herd.
Wayne

[sadlowskiadam]

As the title says, how busy is it?

I'm aware that anything up to 50 people can start a day so I'm expecting crowds at hostels/shelters the first few weeks but does this thin out after that? I really want to do it with my partner hopefully 2019 maybe 2020 but wondering whether to do the CDT/PCT instead if it's crowded all the way along. Hostels fully booked up all the way along or shelter camp sites over flowing doesn't sound overly appealing. 10 or 15 people fine but 40+ each day every day is not. Just looking for a nice mix of peace and quiet some days and other days being social with people. I do understand that weekends and/or holidays like 4th July bring out the crowds more so.

You should consider starting NOBO after April 15. You will still have a full 6 months complete your thru hike, you will have missed much of the bad winter/early spring weather, and the hiker bubble will be in front of you. You still will meet a good amount of late starting thru hikers, but you won't have to worry about overcrowded shelters, hostels, etc. Good luck.