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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by scope View Post
    Its fair to wonder about the daughter, but seems much less likely to be a criminal scenario than simply a younger person with less patience for walking slow, and possibly wanting some alone time. As an introvert, that's the first thing that comes to my mind - just being honest.
    ??? What are you talking about?

    PennyPinchers' post implied the daughter was some way directly responsible for her mothers disappearance. You seem to be talking about why the two of them got separated.

    At this point, I think it's already been well established that the separation was a matter of choice. Why they made that choice (difference paces, bathroom break, etc) doesn't matter.
    What matters is that during a period of time the mother and daughter were separated, the mother seemed to have just vanished.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNhiker View Post
    fwiw-----the daughter has been (im being told at least by my crews) at the command center at least up til friday......not sure if she was there over the weekend or today..
    Do I have the sequence right?

    1. Mother and daughter park at Clingmans Dome and hike down the Forney Ridge trail to Andrews Bald (~1.8 mi.).

    2. Mother and daughter begin return to the parking lot and, after ~1/4 mile (~1.5 miles from parking lot), daughter hikes ahead to visit the viewing tower.

    3. Upon visiting the viewing tower and returning to the parking lot, Mother is not at their car as expected.

    Busy, well-maintained trail, headed in the right direction when they separated, minimal chance to take a wrong turn . . .

    I don't know how you could make an error at the Forney Creek trail junction.

    IMG_20150613_145718.jpg

    I don't have a photo of the Clingmans Dome access trail junction with the Forney Ridge trail, but if she missed it, she would have intersected the Appalachian Trail in short order:

    IMG_20150613_165503.jpg

    While it may be difficult to remain optimistic after almost a week, I hope they find her alive.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by HooKooDooKu View Post
    ??? What are you talking about?
    Agreed. I thought pp insinuated that we should all question the daughter's story about getting separated. I was just offering my viewpoint on why I didn't think that was altogether reasonable to go there. Fair to wonder perhaps, but not so fair to say "let's be honest" as if we're all thinking of nefarious activity.
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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnacraft View Post
    Do I have the sequence right?

    1. Mother and daughter park at Clingmans Dome and hike down the Forney Ridge trail to Andrews Bald (~1.8 mi.).

    2. Mother and daughter begin return to the parking lot and, after ~1/4 mile (~1.5 miles from parking lot), daughter hikes ahead to visit the viewing tower.

    3. Upon visiting the viewing tower and returning to the parking lot, Mother is not at their car as expected.

    Busy, well-maintained trail, headed in the right direction when they separated, minimal chance to take a wrong turn . . .

    I don't know how you could make an error at the Forney Creek trail junction.

    IMG_20150613_145718.jpg

    I don't have a photo of the Clingmans Dome access trail junction with the Forney Ridge trail, but if she missed it, she would have intersected the Appalachian Trail in short order:

    IMG_20150613_165503.jpg

    While it may be difficult to remain optimistic after almost a week, I hope they find her alive.
    with this sequence, and the small area to search, IMO the mother likely returned to the parking area and was removed by vehicle - makes more sense than getting lost

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    with this sequence, and the small area to search, IMO the mother likely returned to the parking area and was removed by vehicle - makes more sense than getting lost
    I have been following the story but it wasn't until Johnacraft put it into sequence and I pulled the map out that it became difficult for me to stay optimistic. We are talking 1.5 mile hike with 1 trail intersection. It is a scary thought but realistic that George is correct.
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  6. #46
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    fwiw......

    we are doing another story on it today....

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    Do I have the sequence right?

    1. Mother and daughter park at Clingmans Dome and hike down the Forney Ridge trail to Andrews Bald (~1.8 mi.).

    2. Mother and daughter begin return to the parking lot and, after ~1/4 mile (~1.5 miles from parking lot), daughter hikes ahead to visit the viewing tower.

    3. Upon visiting the viewing tower and returning to the parking lot, Mother is not at their car as expected




    yeah...

    this is basically what im hearing from our guy down there today...

  8. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by HooKooDooKu View Post
    At this point, I think it's already been well established that the separation was a matter of choice.
    From the info we have been given I think all that is well established is that they heard from the daughter. That's an important distinction when trying to solve a mystery. I'm certainly not accusing the daughter of being inaccurate. In fact, we haven't seen any info that would suggest an opinion of her good or bad. It's just that "well established" would require multiple pieces of evidence that support the same theory.

    And I wouldn't rule out deception on someone's part as a possible explanation of the mystery.

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    1.5 mi, no packs, is like 45 min walk at most. Two people walking different paces would only separate by 5 min. As well.

    Did daughter think she was really going to get there much sooner? Not unless she ran.

    Mom didnt want to see observation tower as well? Dont buy that.

    Going ahead had no possibility of gaining daughter anything tangible. With another, you not leave until they do.

    Naturally separating because one faster...ok.
    Separating to see the tower.. sound debateable

    Most trail too steep to get off of as well, voluntarily. Most can wait 40 min for bathroom to use too.

    An animal wouldnt drag her too far either, and there would be signs.

    Another person being involved is in top few possibilities in my mind that make most sense.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 10-01-2018 at 20:32.

  10. #50
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    Mom didnt want to see observation tower as well? Dont buy that.

    from what the PIO told my reporter----the mom was too tired to make the trek up to the dome......so the daughter went ahead with the plan to meet at the parking lot...

  11. #51
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    Also--Muddy---you're making a lot of speculation without knowing how fit these two are, their skill level, and other potential health issues that she may or may not have...

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    Maybe so, but a caring daughter wouldnt leave a mom with mental or health issues would she?

    Its highly improbable to me she got off trail and lost without aid of a person or being forced off by a encounter with animal. GSMNP is just not off-trail travel friendly.

    Its not unusual to take wrong trail, its not unusual to get lost without a trail. Those dont seem to apply. Which is why very rare for dayhiker to go missing for long. They dont normally leave the trail.....voluntarily.

    Um just throwing out logic
    Not speculating about anything
    Except that its hard to go missing in a very defined area and very defined timeframe, with no trace. Which is why its rare.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 10-01-2018 at 21:59.

  13. #53

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    So, I assume still no sign of her? Nearly a week later? Not good.

    If they separated 1/4 mile from Andrews Bald, it's possible the mother went down the Forney Creek trail, which has as a very similar name to Forney ridge trail, though the picture of the sign makes knowing which direction to go pretty obvious. At least to us. But we have no idea what kind of physical shape she was in, but apparently she was tired.

    From the map, the creek trail looks to be fairly level leaving the junction while the ridge trail goes up hill. I could see taking a rest at the sign, then getting up and going left instead of right. Then after awhile you realize your going steeply down hill. This might not seem right, but it's the easiest thing to do, so you keep going, deeper and deeper into a remote area of the park. It's also on the side of the mountain which falls into shadow early in the day. Hypothermia and panic set in and who knows what she does next.
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  14. #54

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    Hypothermia can be factor in poor decisions for sure.
    But by time its that bad, outlook is not too good unless help intervenes.

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    another mystery of the Smokies

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnacraft View Post
    Do I have the sequence right?

    1. Mother and daughter park at Clingmans Dome and hike down the Forney Ridge trail to Andrews Bald (~1.8 mi.).

    2. Mother and daughter begin return to the parking lot and, after ~1/4 mile (~1.5 miles from parking lot), daughter hikes ahead to visit the viewing tower.

    3. Upon visiting the viewing tower and returning to the parking lot, Mother is not at their car as expected.
    This is the first that I've heard of this sequence of events (plainly laid out), but makes the most sense.

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    This is the first that I've heard of this sequence of events (plainly laid out), but makes the most sense.


    my response to this in a previous post came after I read an email from the reporter working the story today as it was told to him by the Park's PIO....

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    1.5 mi, no packs, is like 45 min walk at most. Two people walking different paces would only separate by 5 min. As well.
    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Did daughter think she was really going to get there much sooner? Not unless she ran.

    The distance from the parking lot to the common viewing area of Andrews Bald is 1.9 miles with 550' elevation change.
    If these were not experienced hikers, the climb back to the parking lot should take closer to 1-1/2 hours (and they are only 15-20 minutes into that hike when the daughter separated).


    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Mom didnt want to see observation tower as well? Dont buy that.

    Why not. Again, if she's not a very experienced hiker, I could see the 50yo mom is already tired from the 2 mile hike down, is facing 2 miles back up, and round trip to the observation tower is another 1.2 miles (round trip from parking lot) and an additional 300' of elevation gain.

    Tired older mother, exuberant young daughter... makes perfect sense to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Most trail too steep to get off of as well, voluntarily. Most can wait 40 min for bathroom to use too.
    An animal wouldnt drag her too far either, and there would be signs.
    Another person being involved is in top few possibilities in my mind that make most sense.

    Yes and No.

    There just isn't any good or obvious reason for this woman to seemingly disappear without a trace.

    There are a few places in that area you could go off trail before the climb after the Forney Creek intersection... but the way you're on a ridge line, if you did step off the trail... pretty much all you have to do to find it again is go up hill. Of course if you did go off trail for any reason, a fall is always possible. But if a smaller force can find the scavenged body of a poacher 1/2 mile off the trail, you would think this many people would find signs of someone in this area.

    In terms of getting lost on the trails... well there's only two intersections... Forney Creek and the intersection to the parking lot. Since you're returning to the parking lot, it wouldn't take you long to realize you've gone the wrong way if you took Forney Creek as you would quickly be going down hill when you know you should be going up hill. So I could see some how missing the turn going to the parking lot. But the only place to go from there is the AT where you either come across the observation tower, or turn the wrong way and run into hikers at a shelter... (other than perhaps heading down Goshen Prong... but by then, you should REALLY know your lost and NOT just keep going down hill).

    And while "leaving by vehicle" does seem like the easiest way to "disappear without a trace"... this isn't a magic act. The parking lot is a pretty popular place, and violence in the park is low. Seems unlikely someone would be leaving by vehicle against their will, and no one would leave willingly with their child still in the woods.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Maybe so, but a caring daughter wouldnt leave a mom with mental or health issues would she?
    Has there been some report of health issues with the mom? This post seems to imply as much, but that's nothing I've read to this point.
    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Its highly improbable to me she got off trail and lost without aid of a person or being forced off by a encounter with animal. GSMNP is just not off-trail travel friendly.

    Its not unusual to take wrong trail, its not unusual to get lost without a trail. Those dont seem to apply. Which is why very rare for dayhiker to go missing for long. They dont normally leave the trail.....voluntarily.

    Um just throwing out logic
    Not speculating about anything
    Except that its hard to go missing in a very defined area and very defined timeframe, with no trace. Which is why its rare.
    Seems like my other reply is saying much the same thing here.

  20. #60
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    I really feel for the daughter. If it was foggy, as it often is, the mom may not have thought the climb to the tower was worthwhile.

    Also don't discount altitude as a fatigue factor in decision making. I know it's not the Rockies but it is a change from the midwest.


    One other thing that I have not see mentioned is who had car keys.

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