Not going to speculate on what happened, but if you just stay on a trail, any trail you'll probably be found quickly.
And having a map, or even picture of trailhead map on phone, can be very useful
So many ways things could have turned out different. That is what wrenches your gut.
Last edited by MuddyWaters; 10-02-2018 at 20:44.
Sure it was south of the AT? 2 miles west of Clingmans is the Goshen Prong trail junction which goes north. It would make more sense to go right onto a trail then left into the woods. I seem to remember that section as being a bit of a knife edge too. How she managed to walk right past the parking lot is a mystery too, since she must have.
In any event, at least there is closure with this one.
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I hiked this section of the Smokey's last April and think I might know what happened to this lady. Hiking back toward Clingsman Dome from Andrew's Bald on the Forney Ridge Trail, there is a fork in the trail. To the right and you go back to the parking lot. But the trail to the left bypasses the parking area and goes directly to the AT. I think she took the fork to the left and completely missed the parking area. Once she reached the AT, she started hiking southbound toward Double Spring Gap shelter.
If she had kept hiking on the AT, she would have reached the shelter. I also can't believe she pass someone else on the AT when she was lost that could have pointed her in the right direction. But for some reason, around Goshen Prong Trail, she got off the AT and started bushwhacking south down the mountain. 3/4 of a mile in that mess must of been absolute hell. I can't imagine the fear she must have been going through. It is also very steep if I remember correctly. We will likely never know what really happened.
I've been hoping hoping for her to be found alive. But after several days, it's hard to be positive. Now we hear what we all knew in our gut was the truth. It's amazing how easy it is to get turned around, to lose your bearings, to "forget" which way you were going. Please please folks, if you ever get even a little bit lost, STAY ON THE TRAIL! Don't be the next tragedy.
Sure it was south of the AT?
press release says 2 miles west of parking lot, 3/4 of a mile south of AT...
to me, that sounds like the forney creek side....
Further new reports have confirmed my prior estimation of where she was found... In the area of Takassah Ridge and Huggins Creek.
Missing.jpg
She did NOT go down Forney Creek.
If she had, she would have had to continue past the boiler for nearly 2 miles and thru 4 different drainages, or hike all the way down to CS69 and 2 miles up Huggins Creek.
And while I'm still just speculating, after a brief discussing with an older and wiser and more experienced hiker than myself, the following scenario is a simple and plausible explanation of what might have happened and doesn't require the interjection of wild animals or health issues:
While returning to the parking lot, she simply missed the turn that takes you back up to the parking lot. She continues up the hill now on the Bypass Trail. She comes to the intersection with the AT and mistakenly turns left thinking she'd heading in the direction of New Found Gap. After hiking the AT for almost two miles, the sun starts to set and she panics. Knowing that Clingman's Dome Road is somewhere just below her, she uses the last bit of daylight to turn off the trail and head down the hill looking for the road.
Of course the tragedy is that she's no where near the road and has just wondered into complete wilderness as the sun sets... Even if she hasn't fallen at this point and survives the night, the rain and cold temperatures eventually leads to either a slip and fall and/or hypothermia.
As crazy as that sounds, it does seem like the only way it could have happened. I'm wondering if she could read the signs? She passed several which would have pointed the right way. To decide to bushwhack down a steep hill sounds like a hypothermia move. I bet she was pretty torn up when they found her.
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Further new reports have confirmed my prior estimation of where she was found... In the area of Takassah Ridge and Huggins Creek.
what are the new report?
as in---where did the info come from?
The main report on FaceBook "Hike the Smokies" group.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/lo...s/51-599841110
However, re-reading the new story, it might be that someone basically did what I did... pull out a topo map and ruler.
Oh----I left that group...
looks like my coworker posted the link to our story....
i didnt bother to read the close to 300 comments....
And yeah---my guess is one of our people did a measurement.....
but thats still not an official location but a general one....
but that somewhat the area I was thinking...
keep in mind----I'm going off my memory tonight and haven't looked at a map....
The idea isn't crazy, and it's by no means the only explanation.
I can't explain issues with the signs. Perhaps she was tired and just kept her eyes on the trial in front of her never seeing the signs. Are the signs currently not there? Vandals, etc. Perhaps she has problems reading the signs.
But what I'm certain of is that she wound up where she was found by coming down from the AT, not coming up from Forney Creek or across the mountains from Forney Ridge.
Besides, given that they split up 5:00, it would have likely taken her until near sunset to reach Goshen Prong intersection.
I can't explain why she turned left onto the AT when she needed to turn right (or turn around). After all, if the parking lot was on her left going down hill, she should have known the parking lot was on her right going uphill. But then again, there are plenty of people who's skills lie elsewhere than having a good sense of direction or spatial orientation. It's totally believable that a person (especially one that is tired) isn't thinking strait and knows earlier in the day the parking lot was on the left and so intentionally turns left not taking the fact they are turned the other way into consideration. She also might have gone to the left because that was actually "strait". The bypass trail approaches the AT as such an angle that it makes looking like turning left onto the AT is really just going strait.
The more difficult part to explain is why she went off trial.
Because she was found 3/4 of a mile off trial, she almost certainly went off trail intentionally. If wild animals were involved, they wouldn't have dragged her that far. If she fell, the woods are far too dense to fall 3/4 of a mile.
It's not a "hypothermic move" to bushwhack down a hill if you think the road is near-by. And if she had travelled 2 miles towards New Found Gap rather than 2 miles away from it, the road is less than 100 yards down the hill.
But it's also quite reasonable that someone would start to panic as the sun starts to set, it's getting dark, and they have no light. At that point, all reasoning might go out the window... she might simply be thinking "I'm on a ridge and the parking lot is not... I need to go down hill" with no other thought as to where the parking lot is relative to her location.
But what I'm certain of is that she wound up where she was found by coming down from the AT, not coming up from Forney Creek or across the mountains from Forney Ridge.
unless you were with her---you can't be certain....
its still taking a guess at this point...
also---as far as I know right now---we don't know how long she has been dead before she was found....
she could have been hiking for 4 days before passing....