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Thread: Mlk vii

  1. #61

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    Current forecast is for a little snow tonight into tomorrow (Friday) morning, warming up to 41F, then the main snow event starting late Saturday. Which means a Fri-Sat outing might be do-able for folks who don't live too far away.

    No matter what, Sunday is out because the arctic air behind the precip is going to make things difficult.
    UL, because nobody ever asks "How can I make my pack heavier?"

  2. #62
    imscotty's Avatar
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    I am waiting till Friday night to make my decision, lots of variability in this forecast.

    My concern is more what is happening during my long drive, I don't care what happens in the woods. So timing is everything. I also have to worry about sticking my family with a projected foot of snow in my driveway while I am gone.
    For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
    the saddest are these, 'It might have been.


    John Greenleaf Whittier

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by imscotty View Post
    I am waiting till Friday night to make my decision, lots of variability in this forecast.

    My concern is more what is happening during my long drive, I don't care what happens in the woods. So timing is everything. I also have to worry about sticking my family with a projected foot of snow in my driveway while I am gone.
    Indeed, that's the tough part. Easier for me since I live about 30 minutes from the trail head.

    For those close by, I've been doing a loop recently that involves parking at Silvermine Lake, up toward Stockbridge to the Long Path, Long path south to AT, and AT to Brien Shelter. About 12 miles, camp and then easy 1.5 mi out the next morning to Silvermine lake.

    That could be reversed for people who can arrive later Friday... Brien first and then loop back toward Stockbridge Saturday. Whatevs!
    Last edited by cmoulder; 01-17-2019 at 10:49.
    UL, because nobody ever asks "How can I make my pack heavier?"

  4. #64

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    Well, it looks like there would have been a decent turnout, but Gumball and I are out. I've had my share of 4-5 hour drives that become 8-9'ers in bad weather, and don't think I'll volunteer for another. Would have liked to see everyone, so if you do reschedule, I'll do my best to attend with a kid in tow....as usual.
    ...the maddest of all is to see life as it is, and not as it should be. Cervantes

  5. #65
    Registered User coach lou's Avatar
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    So this is the Official BUG OUT notice, There will be no cheesecake at Big Hill Shelter Saturday night. Rescheduling is the better part of valor and old age. True we started this to scoff at the Winter, but too many of us have a long drive in potentially the worse weather. We can banter this around for a few days. I cannot do the weekend of the 9th. HB cannot do the weekend of the 16th. We can do a do-over on Ground Hogs day, the weekend of the 2nd, or the last weekend of February, the 23rd. At least we will try to keep it in winter.

    Discuss!

  6. #66

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    Wise choice men. 5-8" for Bear Mountain Saturday and BURRRRR
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  7. #67
    Registered User coach lou's Avatar
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    MLK I- 1st night Rain
    MLK II- 2nd nite 8*, 3rd day 25 mph wind
    MLK III- Fair weather, 3rd nite snow/ice storm
    MLK IV- Sunday morning ice storm
    MLK V- Friday nite RAIN
    MLK VI- 5*-10*
    MLK VII- Bombogenesis!

  8. #68
    Wanna-be hiker trash
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    Quote Originally Posted by coach lou View Post
    MLK I- 1st night Rain
    MLK II- 2nd nite 8*, 3rd day 25 mph wind
    MLK III- Fair weather, 3rd nite snow/ice storm
    MLK IV- Sunday morning ice storm
    MLK V- Friday nite RAIN
    MLK VI- 5*-10*
    MLK VII- Bombogenesis!
    I feel like you’re underselling MLK I. My raincoat was frozen solid after the first night.
    Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

  9. #69
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    It is snowing and blowing in Nothern NY . Reschedule is a good plan

    thom

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarcasm the elf View Post
    I feel like you’re underselling MLK I. My raincoat was frozen solid after the first night.
    I feel like I'm blessed by old man bad memory. not remembering"challenging" weather is the hiker's best friend.
    Lazarus

  11. #71
    Clueless Weekender Another Kevin's Avatar
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    Good call, Coach! I figured that even someone with the mulish persistence of a Marine would eventually dance the Bugout Boogie.

    ----

    The only MLK trips that I remember that were outside the range of 'normal winter weather' were the one with the ice storm (which I bailed out early - just about the only time I was glad to get a stomach bug on trail!) and last year's torrential rain, fog, and precipitous temperature drop (which would have been fine had Cathy not got sick). The previous ice storm was kind of unforecast - they were predicting 3-6"of snow but it turned out to be all ice.

    I think the only ones I missed were the first one and the one (2?) years ago when the eye surgeon was telling me not to go. I have mostly other memories of them than the weather. (Elf: the sequence doesn't seem to match for your weather descriptions - the raccoon and the Saturday-night-Sunday-morning ice storm were definitely the same weekend.)

    1. Envy! (You guys went, I felt too incompetent to sign up.) 1azarus took me hiking a month later and I learnt that if I go hiking with 1azarus I slow him down too much. (Worked out all right - the trip had an off-trail segment and I was essential to that bit!)

    2. I was surprised when asked to lead, gratified to see the team come together to solve a problem that could have been really bad. Also, "Anyone want some of my rabbit?"

    3. Subzero Friday night, raiding raccoon, stomach bug, early bailout leading to missing both the cheesecake and the ice storm. Only time that I was glad in retrospect that I'd got a stomach bug on trail. I thought about rejoining Sunday morning because I felt a lot better, but the Thruway was closed. I later heard about a party member's "inadvertent seated glissade and tree-assisted self-arrest."

    4. Someone faceplanted and didn't let it spoil anyone's trip. Finally, I made it to Sunday brunch!

    5. "Sorry, guys, I can't come. The surgeon nixed it. He says I'm not out of the woods yet." "Well, then, shouldn't you be in the woods?"

    6. Friday night RAIN! FOG! WIND! Epic temperature drop (60F -> subzero in 24 hrs), the Doyle of shelters, and daughter started running a 103 fever, so Saturday morning (ICE!) was it for is. What really sticks in my mind is the fog.

    7. And now - we have made our first decision that no, we don't want to bother Mother Nature. It's better to let Her be when She's in this kind of a mood. You do not want to get in the way of one of Her temper tantrums!
    I always know where I am. I'm right here.

  12. #72

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    Good call, folks. Now I don't have to worry about you.
    "It's fun to have fun, but you have to know how." ---Dr. Seuss

  13. #73
    Clueless Weekender Another Kevin's Avatar
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    And down there in Harriman, the forecast is a little milder. Up here they're forecasting a foot to a foot-and-a-half of snow Saturday night into Sunday and then wind chills dipping well into the -20s F Sunday night (ambient low forecast to be -6 F). Feral Bill, you didn't need to worry about me. I wasn't about to leave my wife to deal with that much snow solo. Our yard guy is laid up, so we don't have paid help to do it right now either.
    I always know where I am. I'm right here.

  14. #74

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    I did a little hike yesterday, short loop of about 6-7 mi and ended up in the vicinity of "The Cave" just north of Stockbridge. A tiny bit of wind last evening, a good blow from about 9:30 pm to 1:30 am and then calm... dead calm this morning. Low of 22.8F according to my SensorPush thermometer/hygrometer magic box. Glorious!

    However, about 8:30 this morning the sky was getting that milky overcast, as expected.

    Sunrise this morning!
    Stockbridge_Cave_sunrise_small.jpg
    UL, because nobody ever asks "How can I make my pack heavier?"

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