anyone know where the bubble is?

[Goldielocs]

Hi there,
I am doing a section hike between Iron Mtn. Gap and E19 (NC/TN) and was wondering if anyone knows where the 2019 bubble is. Just curious if I will get to see some of them or if I will be ahead of them. Thanks!
Goldie Locs

[Gambit McCrae]

Oh you will see them.

[TNhiker]

as Gambit says----yup, you will see them....

pretty much from the beginning of march to end of june-----almost every piece of the AT has a bunch of thrus and other hikers....

[TNhiker]

should say "almost every piece of the AT from Virginia down"

[MuddyWaters]

Yep, from southern VA to springer, 500 miles, at least, long "bubble". 1/4 of the trail.

[Dogwood]

Hi there,
I am doing a section hike between Iron Mtn. Gap and E19 (NC/TN) and was wondering if anyone knows where the 2019 bubble is. Just curious if I will get to see some of them or if I will be ahead of them. Thanks!
Goldie Locs

You sound like you're deciding whether or not to see the new panda exhibit at the zoo.


The frothiness extends from the Approach Tr to VA at this stage.

[Gambit McCrae]

As of yesterday 9 thruhikers had signed in at harpers ferry over 2000 signed in at springer

[Chicken Feathers]

I think the bubble has burst and hikers are scattered all alone the AT

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[Dogwood]

I think the bubble has burst and hikers are scattered all alone the AT.

It's the ATC's marketed alternative AT Thru agendas paying big dividends.

[tdoczi]

I think the bubble has burst and hikers are scattered all alone the AT

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the past 2 summers i have found a lot of thru hikers in spots and times i wasnt expecting, so you might be right if youre suggesting there isnt so much "a bubble" any more.

late may 2017 in the smokies there was still enough around that standing bear started turning people away the night i was there and same time window in souther and central VA last year was swarming.

that same time frame in SNP 6 years ago, same thing. they're almost unavoidable now. though i kind of think july in the south maybe not so much. i once tried VA in july. theres not much to recommend it but while i did meet a couple people claiming to be thrus (talking to them for 5 minutes revealed no chance of finishing without a major flip, which they werent planning on doing) there was certainly nothing like a bubble.

[JPritch]

Thru's and the bubble get a bad rap on this forum. Fact is, the trail is just full of people period. Sure, some thru's, but also a bunch of section hikers, and day hikers oozing out of the major gaps.

[Goldielocs]

I hiked between GA and NC/TN last year and after late may, most of the thru hikers had made their way past and entered VA and further.. there were several days I hiked and didnt see a soul. yes there will always be day hikers and section hikers, but the thru hikers are a special breed and I was hoping to spend some time with them.. they are a fun breed of hiker

[tdoczi]

I hiked between GA and NC/TN last year and after late may, most of the thru hikers had made their way past and entered VA and further.. there were several days I hiked and didnt see a soul. yes there will always be day hikers and section hikers, but the thru hikers are a special breed and I was hoping to spend some time with them.. they are a fun breed of hiker

they have potential to be interesting in the proper dosage. meeting a couple of them talking to them, then being able to remove yourself or continue further can be good. being in an inescapable swarm of them, not so much.

i've always had better encounters with thrus up north. both because they're less densely packed and also probably because most of the people just engaging in nonsense have either stopped hiking or perhaps in some cases outgrown it by then.

[stephanD]

Last year, summer 2018, i started a section July 1st from Front Royal southbound. I was surprised to find myself in bubble all throughout the SNP.

[Dogwood]

Thru's and the bubble get a bad rap on this forum. Fact is, the trail is just full of people period. Sure, some thru's, but also a bunch of section hikers, and day hikers oozing out of the major gaps.

Yup.......

[JoshMcR]

https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/

All throughout NC/TN. Some have already gotten to Virginia.

[tdoczi]

https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/

All throughout NC/TN. Some have already gotten to Virginia.

see heres the thing about this-

what thats currently showing certainly aligns with "conventional wisdom." looking at this, the back end of the bubble is at around the GA/NC border. makes sense.

from there to VA16 is 456 miles. now, i'd expect most of the people even all the way in the back of that bubble (ie on the GA border right now) would be past VA16 by May 26th. that would require them only to do about 10 miles a day. in other words, VA16 should be well south of the bubble at the end of May.

Last May 26th that area was swamped with thru hikers. more than I have ever encountered anywhere ever before. why? i was frankly shocked.

is there now swarms of late starters who as of now arent even on the trail? are they all starting at the end of april? is the back end of the bubble moving at 8 miles per day? is this heat map website just bunk? is the conventional thinking of when most NOBOs start and how fast they progress just no longer true? was last year just a weird year for some reason?

[tdoczi]

https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/

All throughout NC/TN. Some have already gotten to Virginia.

hmm. point #1 is certainly worth noting
Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 10.11.04 PM.png

[4eyedbuzzard]

Where is the bubble? Wait for a bad storm. Search for cheap motels in trail towns along the AT corridor. The bubble is where there are no vacancies.

[Astro]

they have potential to be interesting in the proper dosage. meeting a couple of them talking to them, then being able to remove yourself or continue further can be good. being in an inescapable swarm of them, not so much.

i've always had better encounters with thrus up north. both because they're less densely packed and also probably because most of the people just engaging in nonsense have either stopped hiking or perhaps in some cases outgrown it by then.

Having section hiked 1850 miles of the AT I would totally agree.