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  1. #21

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    March 1st already has 45 registered on the ATC site.

    https://atcamp.org/atthruhikerreports.cfm

  2. #22
    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HankIV View Post
    March 1st already has 45 registered on the ATC site.

    https://atcamp.org/atthruhikerreports.cfm
    good info, thanks for sharing.

    It is really curious why so many folks want to start on the 1st of the month, or the 15th of the month. Seeing these stats, why would not most folks want to start on February 28th? No difference in weather probabilities. and they would be ahead of a fairly large throng.

    Perhaps the answer is that most who register don't really know at this point their start date, just a guess, so they put in "March 1" instead of "early March", etc.

    But I also used to see it on the PCT registration where it is perceived as somewhat important that you start on your permit date, and the March 15, April 1, April 15, etc permits get snatched up first. Doesn't really matter for the PCT because all days "fill up" to the 50 allotted PCTA permits.

    I wax.

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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    But I also used to see it on the PCT registration where it is perceived as somewhat important that you start on your permit date, and the March 15, April 1, April 15, etc permits get snatched up first. Doesn't really matter for the PCT because all days "fill up" to the 50 allotted PCTA permits.

    I wax.
    Just curious, any idea what the dropout rate for these thrus are on the PCT? If it is anywhere near the AT dropout rate that would mean only 12-15 actually make it? Or am I missing something?

  4. #24
    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seatbelt View Post
    Just curious, any idea what the dropout rate for these thrus are on the PCT? If it is anywhere near the AT dropout rate that would mean only 12-15 actually make it? Or am I missing something?
    Purely anecdotal, but "I've heard" that the dropout rate on the PCT is less than that on the AT, but still high. the reason quoted is that the average hiker that starts the PCT is more experienced than the average starter on the AT. I can attest to at least that point; I've started from Springer twice now, once for my own AT, then again with my wife, and it is amazing the percentage of first-time backpackers on the AT. Not knocking them, good for them, and many of them actually make it.

    On the PCT, I knew of no first time backpackers, meaning no one I met was one (though I'm sure there were a few). One absolutely striking difference, for example is pack size/weight. It has to be close to 2-times, meaning the average AT pack starting weight is twice that of the average PCT pack, or at least close to that. Not meaning to start any UL arguments, but this has to affect the percentage that make it.

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    Oh wow I would expect PCT pack weight to be more considering further resuply options... I'm starting to look into a PCT thru but I know if I'm making it all the way nobo I need to start early, hit the Sierra's as early as I could and most likely with crampons, micro spikes and maybe even snow shoes... so maybe that's why I'm seeing my pack weight a bit more then AT compared to what most PCT might be.

    If (when) I do the AT again I'll be shooting for a Feb start, just cause of my slow style and I actually dig some cold weather hiking. I started Amicalola March 9th 2018 and honestly never felt like I was in the "bubble" people talk about for the entire trail. I kept hearing "the bubble is coming" but never saw it. Sure the trail was crowded all the way but they say 25% quit by Neels Gap on average, so things really don't take too long to start thinning out from what I've seen. If you like stealth camping then you'll really never feel like your in a bubble. Most people passed me and I never saw them again to so maybe that has to do with the way I saw it.
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by LazyLightning View Post
    Oh wow I would expect PCT pack weight to be more considering further resuply options... I'm starting to look into a PCT thru but I know if I'm making it all the way nobo I need to start early, hit the Sierra's as early as I could and most likely with crampons, micro spikes and maybe even snow shoes... so maybe that's why I'm seeing my pack weight a bit more then AT compared to what most PCT might be.
    Well, I was talking about pack weight at the southern terminus; the early PCT has gobs of resupply options in the first many hundreds of miles, almost as many as the AT. But, I was mostly also talking about "base weight" anyway. Sure, there are some big water carries and big food carries along the PCT. And the snow gear in the Sierra.

    My overall point was the higher level of hiker experience seen on the PCT vs. the AT, hence perhaps a lesser drop-out rate.

    Anyway, have fun on the PCT! Spectacular trail, a different kind of fun than the AT. I started the PCT on March 29th 2018, a tad early for some, but I thought it was perfect, a nice balance of cool desert weather vs. not too bad snow in the Sierra. I also started on March 11th of this year, way early, but it was the only permit available. I only hiked a week before the Covid SHTH and my wife said "get you butt home!".

    (for the record, I've only done the first ~1000 miles of the PCT).

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