According to this website the estimated NOBOs this year was around 3300, so even if thats off by say 3-400, the number of NOBO Thru hikers are still down from previous years.

Ignoring the reported completions (the site says these numbers aren't complete) does it seem like the number of thru-hikers are trending down? There was a negligible increase from 2017-2018. I haven't been following these trends very long it just peaked my curiosity. Is it too early to be speculating about this? I'm guessing all of the 2019 NOBOs have been off the trail for a bit.