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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by SawnieRobertson View Post
    Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.
    I hope you have friends or family that could do your shopping for you.Best recourse during flu season is to avoid people and public places as much as possible.Some of the grocery stores in my area will pull your grocery list for you and have it ready for curbside pickup.My aunt used to do that.Best of luck to you.

  2. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.
    Perhaps our concerns are not for ourselves but for those around us who we love?

    Consider this though. There's a room that if you enter you have a 1 in 28 (closer to 3.6%) of dying. What would you go in the room for? Don't answer right away, you've got time to think about it. A thoughtful response might consider what other activities or risks have this high a level of mortality and whether you've avoided those in the past. In other words consider the risk in its proper contex.

    With a 1 in 28 probability, if you rolled the dice so to speak 28 times, you'd expect one time for a "success" to happen. That would be any one of those 28 tries.

    Nothing wrong with a positive outlook but perspective is important too.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
    Robert Hunter & Ron McKernan

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  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    Perhaps our concerns are not for ourselves but for those around us who we love?

    Consider this though. There's a room that if you enter you have a 1 in 28 (closer to 3.6%) of dying. What would you go in the room for? Don't answer right away, you've got time to think about it. A thoughtful response might consider what other activities or risks have this high a level of mortality and whether you've avoided those in the past. In other words consider the risk in its proper contex.

    With a 1 in 28 probability, if you rolled the dice so to speak 28 times, you'd expect one time for a "success" to happen. That would be any one of those 28 tries.

    Nothing wrong with a positive outlook but perspective is important too.
    Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
    at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

    That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
    at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

    That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.
    Fine, you went into that room, how very brave of you. You NOW may or may not be carrying a virus that can be transmitted to people outside the room. I'm saying it's selfish to not come out of that room and at least wash your hands before strolling into a bigger crowd of strangers. You may now want to monitor yourself for coughs and fevers, before entering a populated area.

    No one on the internet cares how brave you are. You started in this thread with a "whataboutism" question. Fine, you were informed why the question wasn't overly pertinent. You then posted two informative links, and I thought "great, this guy gets it." You then started with some poor statistical analysis of odds, and the inner mathematician in me cringed.

    I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people with a common interest (the trail and nature) sharing a communal space. What do I want you do do? I stated that. I want you to wash your hands, and if you could stop spreading misinformation and poor statistical analysis as well, that would be great.

  5. #45

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    Stock up on hand sanitizer,there's a shortage,at least in NYC

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
    at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

    That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.
    Alligator was just using an analogy. The 1 in 28 reference was not meant to imply that if you enter a room with a Coronavirus patient you have a 1 in 28 chance of dying. It is merely a thought experiment to consider what the implications of catching Coronavirus would mean to you.

    We could answer the question by considering different things. For example, would I travel to visit my parents if that gave me a 1 in 28 chance of dying? (Remember, this is just an analogy. In this analogy, it doesn't matter that our parents are at more risk from Coronavirus than us because this analogy is only about the odds). Would I go hiking this year if 1 in 28 hikers were being killed on the trail? No! Would I go hiking this year if 1 in 100,000 hikers were being killed? Yes. Would I go to a concert with 1 in 28 odds? No! Would I go buy groceries? Yes, but I'd probably stock up more and make fewer trips.

    Personally, I've never been a germ-a-phobe. I don't avoid contact with people who have colds and I don't worry too much about staying home if I have a mild illness. But increasing risk can change things. Personally, I'll be washing hands a lot more and I've already been practicing to avoid touching my face with unwashed hands.

  7. #47

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    Quote Originally Posted by Puddlefish View Post
    Fine, you went into that room, how very brave of you. You NOW may or may not be carrying a virus that can be transmitted to people outside the room. I'm saying it's selfish to not come out of that room and at least wash your hands before strolling into a bigger crowd of strangers. You may now want to monitor yourself for coughs and fevers, before entering a populated area.



    No one on the internet cares how brave you are. You started in this thread with a "whataboutism" question. Fine, you were informed why the question wasn't overly pertinent. You then posted two informative links, and I thought "great, this guy gets it." You then started with some poor statistical analysis of odds, and the inner mathematician in me cringed.

    I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people with a common interest (the trail and nature) sharing a communal space. What do I want you do do? I stated that. I want you to wash your hands, and if you could stop spreading misinformation and poor statistical analysis as well, that would be great.
    Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.

    Since you don't know me,you have no idea how clean my hands are or what my hygienic practices are or always have been but I would put them up against yours and anyone else's.

    All the links I have posted were from reputable sources to the best of my knowledge.

    For the record,I don't consider myself any braver than anyone else.

    Have a nice day.

  8. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.
    What on earth are you talking about? No one said anything -at all- resembling that bizarre twist of math you just implied.

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.

    Since you don't know me,you have no idea how clean my hands are or what my hygienic practices are or always have been but I would put them up against yours and anyone else's.

    All the links I have posted were from reputable sources to the best of my knowledge.

    For the record,I don't consider myself any braver than anyone else.

    Have a nice day.
    The point of statistics is about trends over populations. The applicability to the individual is less important. I don't have time to teach you Statistics 101 on this forum. It's not about you. Wash your hands and be a responsible citizen, or don't.

    Your chance of surviving is 29 of 30... but that is only if you catch the virus. I'm suggesting to you that you try not to catch the virus in the first place. If you don't catch the virus, your odds of not dying (to the virus) rise to 30 out of 30. Take those odds to Vegas and you can play all night. Take your 29 of 30 odds to Vegas, and you can play until ... you die.

  10. #50

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    You guys crack me up.Go entertain yourselves.

  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Puddlefish View Post
    ....I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people ........
    Five Tango is looking at the problem from the point of view of one individual and is right that he has a good chance of getting over coronavirus if he was unlucky enough to get it. Puddlefish is looking at the problem from the point of view of the population as a whole and from a public health standpoint he is right that this isn't about a single individual. As he and others have stated we are citizens of a larger society need to look beyond our own self interest to consider what is right for those around us as well. Just two people looking at a problem from two different aspects.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  12. #52

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    I'm guessing any kind of tourist group activities will suffer because having many people from various places only increases the chance of someone being infected.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
    Five Tango is looking at the problem from the point of view of one individual and is right that he has a good chance of getting over coronavirus if he was unlucky enough to get it. Puddlefish is looking at the problem from the point of view of the population as a whole and from a public health standpoint he is right that this isn't about a single individual. As he and others have stated we are citizens of a larger society need to look beyond our own self interest to consider what is right for those around us as well. Just two people looking at a problem from two different aspects.
    Yep that's all there's to that. This virus as of now isn't gonna stop next section hike, the end of may Erwin to Hampton and I don't use shelters. But this virus is stopping me from taking a bus trip to new York with a couple friends that we were going do this spring.

  14. #54

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    98 percent chance of recovery ... but donít forget 20 percent chance of requiring hospitalization to achieve that recovery

  15. #55

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    My daughterís medical school (UPenn) says the Covid-19 virus will be widespread in the US in 7 days. Trains may not be running in April...

  16. #56

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    Quote Originally Posted by irishkat View Post
    My daughter’s medical school (UPenn) says the Covid-19 virus will be widespread in the US in 7 days. Trains may not be running in April...
    They better give me a refund then!
    Follow slogoen on Instagram.

  17. #57

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    Dehydrated food like Mountain House and hand sanitizer are becoming hard to find, so there is already an impact on hikers. There are people trying to resell at a huge markeup. If the fears don't pan out in the same way with SARs a couple of years ago, in a few months there will be some bargains to be had on eBay.

  18. #58

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miner View Post
    Dehydrated food like Mountain House and hand sanitizer are becoming hard to find, so there is already an impact on hikers. There are people trying to resell at a huge markeup. If the fears don't pan out in the same way with SARs a couple of years ago, in a few months there will be some bargains to be had on eBay.
    I'm heading out to New Hampshire on Friday with three other guys. If we hadn't pre-purchased the food for the trip we'd definitely be scrambling.

  19. #59

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    You probably interact with fewer people on the trail than you do in normal life in the city. Use common sense. Practice good hygiene by washing your hands when appropriate. Don’t shake hands with people. Avoid shelters. Hand sanitizer may be in short supply, but washing your hands with soap is more effective anyway.

  20. #60

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    Don't need hand sanitizer if you have use alcohol with stove fuel. Some folks have burned hand sanitizer in pinch although its easy to separate (but still toxic to drink).

    One minor upgrade to handwashing a nurse told me once, don't wear a wrist watch. There are cracks and crevices in the bands and on the watch that will act as reservoir for the nasties.

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