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  1. #1
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    Default How will coronavirus affect hiking this year?

    Doesn't seem easy to predict. It might be a good time to be away from civilization, but not sure how smart it would be to sleep in shelters.

    Anyone thinking about this other than me?

  2. #2

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    Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

    Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

    Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.
    It appears the coronavirus is 10-20 times more deadly than the common flu and has a infection ratio estimated as 2-4 (versus 1.3 for common flu). As for what the coronavirus has already done, that wouldn't even register as news. The concern is what it might become.

    Perhaps being in a tent in the woods is not a bad place to be this spring.

  4. #4

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    Yes, what FlyPaper said.

    I'd also like to discuss trail hygiene at this time. 1. Washing with soap and water is more effective at rinsing viruses off of skin than hand sanitizer.

    2. I hear far too many grumpy old men, stating "I don't get sick, I built up a tolerance!" They don't get sick, or at least not very sick themselves because they've contracted the virus previously, and have an immunity, that might last a few years, or might last a lifetime. Each specific virus comes with it's own rules. Because you're old, you've caught a bunch of flu and cold viruses over your lifetime, and you'll rarely get sick from a specific cold/flu virus you've encountered before. That's all. So, yes, kind of true, but irrelevant.

    You can still carry that virus to another human through poor hygiene/habits on your part. You've never gotten this particular coronavirus before, don't count on your immunity from the more common strains of flu to save you from this one. You don't want to be like Typhoid Mary and get a bunch of people sick or killed because you think you're doing them some kind of favor by toughening them up. Be responsible.

  5. #5
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    Those of who have to fly to our trailhead have to consider if flights on these moving petri-dishes will even be available when the time comes. I've been holding off purchasing my flights until there is a little more clarity to the situation in the USA.

    Once on the trail you can bet I will be following my usual practice of staying away from shelters. I am happy to socialize with the hikers I meet on my hike, but this time I might keep some extra distance. Washing of hands frequently seems to be the wisest preventative method and remembering not to touch my face, mouth or eyes until I have washed thoroughly.

    To Puddlefish's comment above, right on. Now more than ever it is important to practice good hygiene, seek treatment if you are showing symptoms, if you feel sick and don't know what you have, stay home. While I am not personally worried about what CoVid-19 would do to me, it would be hard to live with myself if I carelessly passed the virus on to someone else and it resulted in a fatality. We need to take extra care and precautions around the elderly and immune suppressed.
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by imscotty View Post
    Those of who have to fly to our trailhead have to consider if flights on these moving petri-dishes will even be available when the time comes. I've been holding off purchasing my flights until there is a little more clarity to the situation in the USA.
    Shouldn't be a huge issue, since just about any part of the country can access any part of the trail within a few days of travel via ground methods. After all, if one is doing a hike of many weeks (or months), an extra week or two shouldn't be a big issue.

    And, if someone does pre-book reservations, even though they may be called "non-refundable" if the service isn't actually provided then they would be required to refund that money (if they won't directly, the card used would for a services not provided as described claim).

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Puddlefish View Post
    Yes, what FlyPaper said.

    I'd also like to discuss trail hygiene at this time. 1. Washing with soap and water is more effective at rinsing viruses off of skin than hand sanitizer.

    2. I hear far too many grumpy old men, stating "I don't get sick, I built up a tolerance!" They don't get sick, or at least not very sick themselves because they've contracted the virus previously, and have an immunity, that might last a few years, or might last a lifetime. Each specific virus comes with it's own rules. Because you're old, you've caught a bunch of flu and cold viruses over your lifetime, and you'll rarely get sick from a specific cold/flu virus you've encountered before. That's all. So, yes, kind of true, but irrelevant.

    You can still carry that virus to another human through poor hygiene/habits on your part. You've never gotten this particular coronavirus before, don't count on your immunity from the more common strains of flu to save you from this one. You don't want to be like Typhoid Mary and get a bunch of people sick or killed because you think you're doing them some kind of favor by toughening them up. Be responsible.
    Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
    Don't take my word for it though.Here's a quote from Dr. Drew https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-dr...e-of-influenza

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
    I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

    Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

    Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.
    Hey CalebJ!We finally agree on something! I'm not ready to panic yet over something that might happen but has not yet happened.I won't press my panic button until it's absolutely necessary because it won't do any good any way.And,yes,I understand COVID-19 is exponentially more deadly than influenza but a 98% recovery rate is still pretty good by me.

    FWIW,my grandfather died of Spanish Flu in the pandemic of 1918-1920 that killed 100 million people worldwide.
    Here's a little statistical info on epidemics and pandemics.I don't know how I managed to miss the 2009 scare or if I simply have forgotten it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!........

    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

    Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.
    It is the potential for widespread transmission that is the real concern as CalebJ points out that is what is causing all the commotion. This isn't so much about the odds of any one individual recovering from the virus as it is the impact on our population as a whole. To put it in perspective, if as many people get the coronavirus as gets the regular flu every year then more people could die than our war dead from WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam and the Middle East combined.
    It wouldn't be prudent for public health officials not to be gearing up for a pandemic. Let's hope the virus fades away and we can all look back and say we dodged a bullet.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
    Don't take my word for it though.Here's a quote from Dr. Drew https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-dr...e-of-influenza
    No, I addressed that issue because it's been posted before, on WhiteBlaze. I spoke with a guy yesterday on another forum who literally said, and I quote, "I only wash my hands leaving the bathroom when someone is there watching, otherwise, they treat me like Typhoid Mary." Maybe he was being cleverly ironic, but I didn't get that impression.

    You're wrong about "no one is talking about the flu." A whole lot of news sources and forums and politicians even are pushing the agenda, "but whatabout the flu!" Worrying about the flu, is a red herring. We may as well say, Heart Disease, and Cancer are the greatest causes of death... why is everyone talking about ... diabetes. We have the ability to discuss multiple issues and multiple conversations about different things. It's not one or the other, or this one is at the moment a greater killer. We should know how to mitigate the risks of heart disease, diabetes and how to detect cancer, and the more common flu already. We can still discuss these things, all the while discussing the the warning signs and precautions to take about a strain of virus that's showing both a greater risk of infection and is more deadly on a percentage basis than the flu's that we've seen before.

    As a general rule, whenever someone leads with "why isn't the media talking about"... it means that the media is talking about it extensively, and the person saying it relies on too few sources of information. Your Dr. Drew is selling advertising with his "edgy" opinion.

    So, sure, we can talk about the standard version of the flu as well. But, we know all about that. Old people and young people will die of it, and it's near impossible to save them because too many of them don't take precautions, or the people around them don't take precautions. "Take precautions" is what I'm selling here, and it applies to all kinds of illnesses.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Hey CalebJ!We finally agree on something! I'm not ready to panic yet over something that might happen but has not yet happened.I won't press my panic button until it's absolutely necessary because it won't do any good any way.And,yes,I understand COVID-19 is exponentially more deadly than influenza but a 98% recovery rate is still pretty good by me.

    FWIW,my grandfather died of Spanish Flu in the pandemic of 1918-1920 that killed 100 million people worldwide.
    Here's a little statistical info on epidemics and pandemics.I don't know how I managed to miss the 2009 scare or if I simply have forgotten it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
    If your listed age is correct, you have around a 1 in 30 chance of dying if you become ill with the virus. The 60-69 year old age class has a 3.6% mortality rate in a recent analysis. The mortality rate is similar to the Spanish flu but Spanish flu had a bigger impact on young adults.
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  13. #13
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    Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza



    as puddlefish stated—“you are wrong” about this....

    ill add in “quite wrong”.....


    the news organization that I work for, while we mainly have been reporting flu
    deaths in our viewing area, we have also reported national numbers.....

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlyPaper View Post
    Doesn't seem easy to predict. It might be a good time to be away from civilization, but not sure how smart it would be to sleep in shelters.

    Anyone thinking about this other than me?
    IMO , hikers are nearly always wise to avoid the shelters when possible. Last December I contracted noro-virus during a week long section. I didn't sleep in the shelters, but used the benches and tables for convenient meal prep rather than mess with the several inches of snow base where I was at. I encountered so many sick hikers coming and going in each direction, that it wasn't a huge surprise. I spent my last couple days on the trail striving hard to not defecate or vomit on myself. Sadly, I wasn't entirely successful.

    My vote is avoid the shelters regardless. But, just don't get sick at my favorite camps.....

  15. #15
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    Ummmmm. Back to the main question.

    Yes. I have been thinking about it, but so far the men that have died in the US had health problems before they were infected.

    If everyone has a clean immune system, practices good hygiene, and doesn't share germs, then most likely it's not something that we have to worry about.

    It's probably smart to avoid shelters anyway, especially when you think you might be sick. It's a lot easier to make others sick when you're sneezing and coughing close to others. This goes for any type of illness. I understand this is common sense, but the reason I'm saying this again is if you make it obvious to other hikers that you are trying to hide your sickness, then that's going to ruin each other's experiences on the trail. Camping would be more of trying to "stay away from this particular hiker because it looks like he's sick" and less of an enjoyable time in the wilderness. I would hate for an adventure to turn that way. Also, our main concern should not be to stay away from this "sick person" to protect our physical being, but rather we should show care and love to that person too. For example, offer him food or/and water, keeping in touch with him to make he's feeling well, and even try to start a conversation or make a friendship with him/her.

    Anyway, I guarantee that the coronavirus won't wipe out the entire planet just because the media acts like it is.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

    Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.
    I've seen all these points multiple times in news reports.

  17. #17
    Registered User Nolan "Guido" Jordan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNhiker View Post
    as puddlefish stated—“you are wrong” about this....

    ill add in “quite wrong”.....


    the news organization that I work for, while we mainly have been reporting flu
    deaths in our viewing area, we have also reported national numbers.....
    How many people have died from the flu so far this season? How many have died from pneumonia?

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nolan "Guido" Jordan View Post
    How many people have died from the flu so far this season? How many have died from pneumonia?
    If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
    If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.

  19. #19

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    I have a trip on Amtrak from DC to FL and back early April, then start hiking SOBO. I figure that's about when this will peak. Pray for me I always seem to pick up something on that train ride.
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  20. #20

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    Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

    Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

    If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).

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