How will coronavirus affect hiking this year?

[Five Tango]

Now that we have a new national/World obsession,here is a handy site that post the day to day stats by country.
Might be good information if you plan to travel internationally anytime soon.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...toms/#duration

[Alligator]

Now that we have a new national/World obsession,here is a handy site that post the day to day stats by country.
Might be good information if you plan to travel internationally anytime soon.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...toms/#duration

WHO daily situation reports provide country breakdowns at https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports. For instance, Italy had 76 cases in situation report #34 and in Situation report #49, (15 days later), they have 7375 cases, 366 deaths, and the country is now closed. So no Italian thruhikers any time soon, no hiking in Italy.

[futureatwalker]

WHO daily situation reports provide country breakdowns at https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports...

Great link!

It looks like the numbers are increasing rapidly throughout Europe now.

Here in the U.K., it feels like the quiet before the storm. Our numbers are going up each day, and there are a handful of cases nearby. Still, life is normal, the schools are open, the stores well-stocked. Where I work (a school), contingency plans are being developed in case we have to work from home.

Anecdotal (twitter) accounts describe well-equipped hospitals in Italy being swamped with patients, so much so that care is almost not possible.

This is all distal to the A.T. at the moment, but could be a harbinger of what to expect in the U.S. I guess the worst-case scenario would be some type of lock-down regionally which would limit people's movements, and thus make access to the trail limited. But at that point, the situation would be so dire that hiking would likely not be a priority.

[TexasBob]

Here is what my doctor's office is doing about coronavirus. So I have been sick with a cough, sore throat for a week but no fever so I wasn't worried about coronavirus (ended up I just have bronchitits) but decided to go to doctor yesterday as I was not getting better. When I called for an appointment the usual recorded message was replaced at the beginning with "If you have a cough, a fever and traveled internationally, press 0 now." I asked the nurse what they do if you have those symptoms and history. They tell you to come to the office, stay in your car and then call on your cellphone and they will come out to the parking lot to talk to you.

During my visit they took two swabs and I was tested for the flu and strep throat by in office tests in a matter of minutes. Seems to me that a rapid in office test for coronavirus (similar to the strep and flu tests) is what is needed to get a handle on the number of folks who have coronavirus and help stop its spread.

[Alligator]

People often don't realize the size of the US in relation to Europe kboth sides of the Atlantic). Italy is roughly the size of California with less area. States operate their own health bureaus and so may implement decisions on a statewide basis differently than neighboring states. There could potentially be state quarantines. Currently the western states seem to have the most cases but population density is highest I would guess in the Mid-Atlantic states. A lot of international travel through NYC. Hard to say whether states will close borders. I don't think there is any precedent of that happening but if it did that would impact hikers. My guess would be that NOBO hikers wouldn't be affected, that if such a thing were to occur, it would likely be lifted by the time NOBOs were passing the Mid-Atlantic states.

People should start considering whether trail feeds are a good idea this year. They would be a really poor idea from the standpoint of social distancing and honestly not a place where good hygiene is practiced. And before I get flamed, how often do you see a hand washing station or three compartment sink at a roadside trail feed?

[Alligator]

And pack some soap for a change and wash your hands! Won't be any hand sanitizer around. Sold out by me. And dare I say it, you all will need to practice the Minnesota Smith model for your tp needs. Might be in short supply. It'll be more like mountain gold not mountain money!

[brimflop]

An interesting topic for sure, trail hygiene - but it seems a more pressing issue is going to be just getting to the trail head. As the number of cases continues to grow, it appears local authorities are preparing to shut down/restrict movement in those high incident areas. Would really be a bummer to get trapped somewhere on the way - there.
I have always been wary of the usual sickness from the trail and camp shelters, but the latest virus seems to be a little different than the normal flu - not absolutely sure of why it may be worse, but I'll take their word for it.
If I could ( and I can) get to the trail without much interaction with the world - and I had my supplies sourced and ready - I would not hesitate - it is pretty safe in the woods - away from people - but I would work hard to limit time near shelters and most definitely not touch others - maintain my distance. Sorry but that's just good practice given the times we are in with this virus.
The TP comments make sense, would be tough to try resupply on the trail with it all gone at the local m-marts. But - previous to our modern times people still pooped, and didn't die without TP. Funny thought mailing forward TP -
All be safe out there..

I'd bet the trail has many fewer during April, May, headed into May....

[Slo-go'en]

I don't understand the TP issue unless it's related to not being able to go shopping. In which case, I would think food to be more important. There are other ways to wipe your bum. Cut up an old bed sheet if you have to. Now if this was a norovirus pandemic, I'd want a good stash of TP handy

Hand Sanitizer is not effective. If you can't wash your hands, use a chlorine based wipe. You might want to carry a small bottle of chlorine. It's also effective to purify water.

Speaking of washing hands, it would be a good idea to come up with some method to easily do this. But please, not in or near a water source! Something you can hang in a tree and dribble water on your hands. Hum, like a water bladder.

Anyway, I still plan to SOBO from Harper Ferry some time in April, haven't decided exact date yet.

[brimflop]

Yep! Its a math thing, and we are all mathimtichins…. or what ever you call people that can add numbers,,,

[rmitchell]

My plans were to begin a northbound section hike at Harpers Ferry on May 2 and ending at Pawling, New York. I've arranged to drive up to Pine Grove Furnace with a friend, leave my car there then catch a shuttle to Harpers Ferry (or Weaverton Heights).

After hiking to Pine Grove Furnace my friend would return home with the car and I would continue north. The plan then called for me to catch the train to New York City then fly back to Knoxville.

Now the finish point of the hike doesn't seem like such a good idea. By May things may change but at the moment I'm thinking about waiting a year.

[rickb]

I would put the over/under on the AMC closing all winter facilities with bunk rooms at about 7 days from today.

Just my wild guess — the club posted on March 6th that they are monitoring the situation.

If closures do happen, I would not be surprised if it takes as long to open them as it will to rebuild a footbridge in Harpers Ferry.

Good news for thru hikers is that there is not a single hut you cannot hike around— so not a huge impact there.

[Kookork]

I’m heading to the south of England for the month of May. … I hope …

If the Italian experience counts for anything, I wonder whether England will fare any better?

It’s been only weeks since Covid-19 was found in Italy. Now its government is about to put serious and significant lockdowns on northern Italy. Not quite China-strict, but certainly worth reading up on.

China may be passing through the peak of its original epidemic. That’s taken more than two months to appear, build, perhaps now peak — and then how long to fade away? …

So will Italy be locked down for the month they’re proposing? Or longer in reality?

What will happen in the UK? They’ve gone through serious public health cuts and are facing more. Will the Covid-19 epidemic be peaking in May? Will I be able to get medical treatment if I succumb? Will I be able to get out of the country? Will I face 14 days of isolation if and when I get back here to Canada?

For that matter, how will my Canada do? So far, we’ve done remarkably well, especially with our relatively close ties to China and other affected countries. Here’s hoping our decent state of preparedness and our public health system works well …

More worrisome, how will the US do, given its shocking lack of preparedness? Anyone here from
Washington State? How are the numbers progressing there?

I think it is safe to say a trip to anywhere in the world in the next 6 months is just un-calculated and unnecessary risk taking. we better be the closest to our home and family and Canadian health system(or any other health system we are part of it).
Can you imagine you are in UK and God forbid you fall ill by Covid and nobody of friends and family could fly there to help you in a country that is not originally responsible for your health and has myriad of their own cases to address first?

Even in Wuhan that China claims they have almost controlled the disease, the moment people get back to their normal life, the disease start to spread and another vicious cycle begins by asymptomatic healthy carriers.
Covid-19 is nothing like Ebola or many others which took a few thousands lives . This is not a blizzard that comes and goes and does some instant damage. It will be a long winter like summer ahead.

I regretfully call it a " Russian Roulette" that might potentially take the lives of a huge chunk of our people especially vulnerable individuals. ( as big chunk as 7 to 15 percent depending on the country and situation).

We should do our best to delay the arrival of Covid to our area because only then we might have enough data and experience from previous cases and countries that will share their experience to help us.
Also even a few week delay will give us chance to empty our hospital beds from seasonal Flu that comes and goes each and every year more or less. Right now in Canada for example the beds are just barely getting empty of elderly flu cases.
Vaccine does not seem to be available until 2021 in best estimated cases. We are left with our immune system and our wisdom not to go to places that people are in numbers until humanity finds a solution for this catastrophe in developing.


It will not be easy to hear every day someone we knew ( and possibly dearly loved) is added to the list of casualties in the future.

By the way my opinion holds a little more water than some of the previous comments because for God Sake I used to be a medical doctor with epidemiology in my front mind and kind of in my family blood since My brother has a PhD in Epidemiology from Cambridge university and also a medical doctor.

The West coast was hit first because oh well it is closer to China ,the source, but sooner or later every corner of this world will be affected.

And people who say we have survived many viruses before seems to forget we as a race survived but individually for example Spanish flue took fifty million lives worldwide and it was 1/3 to 1/5 fatal compared to covid. So yes we will survive as we did before but with how many casualties is the real question and concern.

Take your elderly out of Nursing homes if you can before it is too late. You give them more chance by isolating them more and not visiting them as frequently as you like. we younger folks can be potentially carrier who affect our elderly not even knowing it . We can't answer how long it will take for this disease to be controlled but we better be prepared for a long war.

This disease will test the endurance of the humanity in some new levels. This is our generation "test of a lifetime". Use more of your wisdom for a while. It is about life and death .

[Traillium]

I agree, Kookork. I can’t see going to England. ... Sad to be coming to this realization …

I think the decision will be taken out of my hands over the next several weeks …

Damn! Where shall we hike?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[futureatwalker]

This is not a blizzard that comes and goes and does some instant damage. It will be a long winter like summer ahead.

Yes, I think the challenge is a normalcy bias - we're not good at recognising that the ground has shifted under our feet.

After reading this view - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...wers-covid-19/
I will admit to being alarmed.

Essentially, if you extrapolate from current numbers, all U.S. hospital beds will be taken by May 10th.

[TexasBob]

We maybe on the cusp of a wide spread epidemic and what actions are taken in the next 14 days or so will determine how bad it gets apparently from what I have read and seen on TV. If you are 60 or older this might not be the year to hike the trail as us seasoned citizens are more likely to have serious complications from the coronavirus and you don't want to be out on the trail if that happens. Lets hope we dodge the bullet and things don't get bad.

[Leo L.]

Maybe ist just opposite, being out in the nature, away from any crowds, is the best way to not get infected (given you are obeying the usual precautions when meeting other people)?

[TexasBob]

Maybe ist just opposite, being out in the nature, away from any crowds, is the best way to not get infected (given you are obeying the usual precautions when meeting other people)?

Maybe but you will be needing to resupply, shower, pass through towns etc so you won't be out in nature all the time. Plus you need to get to trail which usually involves some form of mass transit (planes, trains, buses, shuttles etc).

[Leo L.]

I'm just contemplating this very topic myself, our southern neighbour Italy has a complete shutdown, Austria is closing schools and universities and stops all major gatherings, Elderly Homes closed for visits etc.
This comes pretty close to a total shutdown here pretty fast.

So I'm seriously asking myself, will I be more safe to be out in the local mountains Tipi-Walter-style for a week or two?
The plus side would be, no other people means no infection.
The minus side is, if infected and sick far from medical help could proof to be serious.

[JPritch]

My company has sent everybody home for the foreseeable future. My new reality is working from the dining room table.

I have been stockpiling some food, looks like I may need to get more. Anybody's thoughts on impact to the food supply? If SHTF, are we still gonna be able to drive thru a McDonald's, or hit the grocery store?

[TNhiker]

with all the cancellations of large events and what not---i wouldn't doubt if the ATC puts out a statement saying people with plans to thru hike
to put it off for a while....