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  1. #21
    Registered User Nolan "Guido" Jordan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
    If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.
    I know how many people have died from those. I was just wondering from TNhiker's perspective since he works for a news establishment, and we both live in the same area. I don't aim to spring up any arguments though.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
    If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.


    I believe he is trying to make a “the media is wrong with their fake news reporting” or something
    along those lines or whatnot......

    and you are correct—-the google machine will easy bring up those numbers....


    I find it interesting after his statement of “Ummmmm. Back to the main question.”

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

    Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

    If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).
    Great perspective. I've also wondered about smoking affects on mortality with CV. The official stats show males die more frequently than females, but so far I have not found any official sources nor major news outlets bring up the smoking coloration possibility. Also, I wonder if the normal flu season cycles will soon reign in the CV in the northern hemisphere.

    But the concern is not just about ones individual odds of coming out fine. If !% of the US dies, it will bring about social upheaval that will affect everything. Perhaps some will hit the trails to avoid civilization and the trails will be more crowded.

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

    Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

    If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).
    Italy had just 3 travel related cases until 2/22, when they picked up 6 more. That was 10 days ago. They have 1682 cases and 35 fatalities as of 3/2, a 2% fatality rate. It also takes 2-8 weeks (on average) from onset until death, but only 5 days to incubate. The number of deaths will be lagging behind the rate of new cases, suppressing the case fatality rate until spread slows. This is northern Italy where all the travelers are visiting. Guess that Mediterranean diet isn't so healthy?

    There's going to be far fewer internationals on the trail is my guess.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
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  5. #25

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    I was wondering the same thing: how might the coronavirus affect the trail (experience) this year?

    It's early days, so of course at this point we can only speculate, but here are mine..

    1) I think that, based on the recent norovirus outbreaks each year, thru-hikers will not be immune. I suspect that norovirus is more catchy than coronavirus (but I'm sure someone can correct me on this), however.

    2) The effects of coronavirus will depend likely be mild for most hikers, because most are young. For older hikers, there may be more of an issue, but I suspect that thru-hikers tend to be in good underlying health to be out there. I think the last place I'd like to be is in a nursing home when this strikes.

    3) My reading of the information that's out there would suggest that coronavirus is 10 to 20x more lethal than the normal flu. So, I think it's right to be concerned. Worst-case estimates here in the U.K. are that it could affect 40-70% of the population, which would put a lot of people in the hospital.

    In short, I could imagine that some people will be forced off the trail with coronavirus, but because of the demographics (and the ease of social-distancing), the impact may not be dramatic.
    (trailname: Paul-from-Scotland)

  6. #26

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    If your listed age is correct, you have around a 1 in 30 chance of dying if you become ill with the virus. The 60-69 year old age class has a 3.6% mortality rate in a recent analysis. The mortality rate is similar to the Spanish flu but Spanish flu had a bigger impact on young adults.
    Based on your facts then,I would have a 29 out of 30 chance of survival.No?

  8. #28
    Registered User lonehiker's Avatar
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    I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
    Lonehiker

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by lonehiker View Post
    I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
    I suspect most people in this thread do no such thing. Discussing something is not the same thing as paranoia.

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by lonehiker View Post
    I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
    No paranoia here,pal,just living in reality.People are about to freak out because of CV concerns.I would like to point out though that if I could get 29/30 odds of winning on a dice table in Vegas today I would be packing my bags and head to the airport right now.................

  11. #31
    Registered User JPritch's Avatar
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    Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds, say with a $100,000 payout?
    While searching for that unknown edge in life, never forget to look home. For the greatest edge you can find in life is to stand in the protective shadow of those who love you.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    No paranoia here,pal,just living in reality.People are about to freak out because of CV concerns.I would like to point out though that if I could get 29/30 odds of winning on a dice table in Vegas today I would be packing my bags and head to the airport right now.................
    Just imagine a theme park ride where 1 out of every 30 riders died. Or even 1 out of 100. Probably some would volunteer to ride, but not me and not my kids.

    Call it paranoia or call it prudent. That kind of odds for a disease I have a high chance of getting gets my attention and is something that one might reasonably want to discuss. For those too busy discussing the latest on Meghan Markle to waste their time with Coronavirus paranoia, I accept that you have different interests.

  13. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPritch View Post
    Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds, say with a $100,000 payout?
    The better analogy would be playing with a zero dollar payout. Last I heard, no one is paying cash money for surviving Coronavirus. All you get is bragging rights.

  14. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by lonehiker View Post
    I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
    Not paranoid. Living in the Houston area, this reminds me of when there is a hurricane in the Gulf and they are not sure where it is going to go. You might get clobbered or it might not be a problem at all but you need to be aware and pay attention to what is going on.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  15. #35

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    You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.
    Exactly!

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn as we move along (people keep forgetting that we are in the very early stages of this) that the mortality rate is actually even lower than it now appears to be. It's becoming increasingly obvious that there are lots of people who have the virus but exhibit either no symptoms or mild ones and seem to be recovering quite quickly, so the numerator is probably much larger than we currently understand.

  17. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Five Tango View Post
    You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.
    ... and my point remains. It may not be a death sentence for you... but it may be a death sentence for the old person/young person you pass it along to. It may also trash your hiking season financially and timewise... when you have to recover in a hospital. You may not care if you roll the dice for a 1 in 30 chance of living, but don't roll the dice for the people around you.

  18. #38
    Registered User SawnieRobertson's Avatar
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    Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.
    You never know just what you can do until you realize you absolutely have to do it.
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  19. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by Puddlefish View Post
    ... and my point remains. It may not be a death sentence for you... but it may be a death sentence for the old person/young person you pass it along to. It may also trash your hiking season financially and timewise... when you have to recover in a hospital. You may not care if you roll the dice for a 1 in 30 chance of living, but don't roll the dice for the people around you.
    Oh,OK,now that we have established that transmission of CV is apparently my fault,what would you have me do?

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SawnieRobertson View Post
    Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.
    Thanks for weighing in. One thing I've pondered even before the CV outbreak is the consequences of passing along the flu. Last time I had the flu, it was no big deal for me. But I don't know who may have caught it from me. Perhaps I passed it along to a couple of strangers, who passed it along to others where someone down that line eventually died. Although I wouldn't consider this to have been a moral failure on my part, it is something to consider and even more so with CV. Both my parents and my in-laws are old enough and in bad enough health to be at serious risk. It may be a time that the younger members of the family work to ensure our aged parents can stay clear of the virus. Perhaps we can do their shopping (and stay away from direct contact ourselves).

    But there are numerous affects of this soon to be declared pandemic that don't solely pertain to our chance of survival. For example, if you were about to start a thru-hike and planned on purchasing hand-sanitizer, good luck finding it in the stores. If you were planning on buying freeze-dried meals, good luck with that too. That has nothing to do with paranoia, but is a simple, practical logistical concern related to hiking.

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