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  1. #161
    Registered User kolokolo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    You know why you think that works...because the majority of everybody else is doing what has been asked of them. Ethics is what you do when nobody is watching.
    Well said.
    Formerly uhfox

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  2. #162
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    Well for what it's worth I am doing everything that has been asked of me according to the state and national/state forest service and like I said I'm not even going near the AT myself right now, because of crowds.
    NoDoz
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  3. #163

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    Quote Originally Posted by LazyLightning View Post
    Well for what it's worth I am doing everything that has been asked of me according to the state and national/state forest service and like I said I'm not even going near the AT myself right now, because of crowds.
    Thank you. Hopefully in the not so distant future this becomes more manageable and some of the more distract measures can be relaxed.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
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  4. #164

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    I work at a big box store for property improvement. It is just starting to dawn on people in many areas that this can get serious with those who are vulnerable. Many already have immunity. The ethical problem would be giving it to others.

    There are many articles online on this regarding the AT. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...050704979.html


  5. #165

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    Quote Originally Posted by greenmtnboy View Post
    Many already have immunity.
    Why do you say that?

  6. #166

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    Why do you say that?
    majority of people recover and develop antibodies, hence are immunized

  7. #167

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    Sure, that's a long term outcome. It's certainly not the present state.

  8. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenmtnboy View Post
    It is just starting to dawn on people in many areas that this can get serious with those who are vulnerable.
    Just now figuring it out....after weeks of guidance. Nice. Well done, people.

  9. #169

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    Originally Posted by greenmtnboy
    Many already have immunity.

    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    Why do you say that?
    If you've had it and got over it, your (probably) immune. Unfortunately, we have no good way to determine who has become immune. That takes a blood test for antibodies and is not practical to do on massive scale. In the news we only hear about the extreme cases and the ones which result in death. For everyone of those, there are 100's who had it and recovered or are recovering. Since the virus is still spreading like wild fire, I'd guess we haven't come close to achieving any kind of wide spread herd immunity, even in the current "hot spots".
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  10. #170
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    In the news we only hear about the extreme cases and the ones which result in death. For everyone of those, there are 100's who had it and recovered or are recovering.


    i can’t necessarily speak for other news outlets, but the station I work for has been reporting on
    not only number of deaths, but also number of people who have recovered...

  11. #171

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post

    If you've had it and got over it, your (probably) immune. Unfortunately, we have no good way to determine who has become immune. That takes a blood test for antibodies and is not practical to do on massive scale. In the news we only hear about the extreme cases and the ones which result in death. For everyone of those, there are 100's who had it and recovered or are recovering. Since the virus is still spreading like wild fire, I'd guess we haven't come close to achieving any kind of wide spread herd immunity, even in the current "hot spots".
    We do not know if immunity follows infection as a certainty. It could be like other disease that once contracted and suffered through, there is immunity from further outbreaks. However, science does not know if COVID 19 will behave as some other diseases in many ways, including if people can become reinfected once they have had the illness. It could be much like flu, once you get it, you can get it again and again as it mutates even slightly from a strain that infected you before. One can believe immunity follows infection of this virus, but until it's been demonstrated and can be documented scientifically, caution dictates we should probably presume the opposite.

  12. #172

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post
    Originally Posted by greenmtnboy
    Many already have immunity.



    If you've had it and got over it, your (probably) immune. Unfortunately, we have no good way to determine who has become immune. That takes a blood test for antibodies and is not practical to do on massive scale. In the news we only hear about the extreme cases and the ones which result in death. For everyone of those, there are 100's who had it and recovered or are recovering. Since the virus is still spreading like wild fire, I'd guess we haven't come close to achieving any kind of wide spread herd immunity, even in the current "hot spots".
    The last I heard 20% of cases require hospitalization so rather than 100's who have recovered and are fine for every bad case it would seem more like 4 "mild" cases per serious one. Of course if a significant portion of people (some say up to 25%) who get the virus are asymptomatic then you are right there maybe 100's who get it and are fine for every serious case. We won't know the real numbers until better analysis is available down the road.

    Testing for antibodies on a massive scale seems impractical but may actually be what happens later this year after the pandemic peaks. Testing workers to see who can safely return to work has been suggested as a way to get businesses re-opened and the economy restarted. My wife works for a company that has thousands of people working at their campus and they have everybody but essential personnel working from home. I wonder how they are going to decide when to recall people to work from their campus. Testing for antibodies to see which ones are immune and allowing those folks back on campus might be one way.

    We are in uncharted territory and there is no telling what the months ahead hold in store for us.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  13. #173
    Registered User Nanatuk's Avatar
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    I think an antibody test will be available before the vaccine is available. Antibody testing would allow those positive for antibodies to get back to work, school to go hike without risk. Those that are in high risk groups will need to continue to social distance until a vaccine is available.

    Back when I was a kid, when one of the neighbor kids got chicken pox, my mom and all the other moms in the neighborhood would take us over to play at that families house. It was highly encouraged by our MD. Getting chicken pox when your a kid is much better than getting it when your older. My dad never had it as a kid so he would stay far away. Not suggesting anyone do that, but a 20 something with no underlying conditions is probably at low risk of needing hospitalization from Wuhan Flu.

  14. #174

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nanatuk View Post
    I think an antibody test will be available before the vaccine is available. Antibody testing would allow those positive for antibodies to get back to work, school to go hike without risk. Those that are in high risk groups will need to continue to social distance until a vaccine is available.

    Back when I was a kid, when one of the neighbor kids got chicken pox, my mom and all the other moms in the neighborhood would take us over to play at that families house. It was highly encouraged by our MD. Getting chicken pox when your a kid is much better than getting it when your older. My dad never had it as a kid so he would stay far away. Not suggesting anyone do that, but a 20 something with no underlying conditions is probably at low risk of needing hospitalization from Wuhan Flu.
    A vaccine is going to take 12-18 months to develop. Just google it if you are curious.

    As far as deaths being attributed to Covid 19 - that is being misrepresented. Currently any person who dies and has tested positive for the disease or is tested post mortem and found to be positive, is being "counted" as a covid death. But this is inaccurate at best, dangerously deceiving in the worse. If you have covid 19 with no symptoms and then end up dead from an underlying condition, should you be counted as a C19 death? Not in my opinion. If you were hit by a car and had mild symptoms of C19 and died, would you count that as a C19 death? You sgouldn't be. But that IS what is happening. It was recently reported that an infant of 7 weeks "died of C19." While the baby DID test positive post mortem, s/he had NO symptoms and I have seen reports that s/he was possibly smothered by the caregiver. I have seen that some of the reason for listing these deaths inaccurately is because the .gov has assured hospitals that expenses for ALL UNINSURED deaths from C19 will be covered by the taxpayers. So do hospitals have an "incentive" to list C.O.D. as C19? YES.
    https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults

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  15. #175

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    I have seen that some of the reason for listing these deaths inaccurately is because the .gov has assured hospitals that expenses for ALL UNINSURED deaths from C19 will be covered by the taxpayers. So do hospitals have an "incentive" to list C.O.D. as C19? YES.
    Sounds like something from a right wing conspiracy website. Having COVD-19 can make an underlying condition more serious, causing death. While the virus might not be THE cause of death, it was "the final straw". If anything deaths caused by or aggravated by COVD-19 are being underreported.
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  16. #176
    Registered User The Old Chief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post
    Sounds like something from a right wing conspiracy website. Having COVD-19 can make an underlying condition more serious, causing death. While the virus might not be THE cause of death, it was "the final straw". If anything deaths caused by or aggravated by COVD-19 are being underreported.
    Not a right wing conspiracy website: https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...s-for-treating And where is your proof that deaths caused by Covid-19 are being under-reported?

  17. #177

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    At this point there's no consensus on them being either under or over reported. Just theories in both directions. And none of that discussion relates to the ethics of thru hiking right now.

  18. #178

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Old Chief View Post
    Not a right wing conspiracy website: https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...s-for-treating And where is your proof that deaths caused by Covid-19 are being under-reported?
    I'm disputing the statement that hospitals are taking advantage of the program by inflating the number of people being treated for COVD-19 or die because of it.
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  19. #179
    Registered User Nanatuk's Avatar
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    If all the people that are in the high risk groups are self quarantined, it would make sense to let all the low risk groups that test positive for anti-bodies or have no underlying conditions and are not likely to be hospitalized to decide for themselves if they want to risk going out in public. If the flu is passed between low risk groups, all the better to build up community resistance and lowers the demand for any vaccine.

    Based on the stats, the Wuhan flu was released into the wild in the USA in December or January, so its likely that a large part of the population has already been exposed.

    So we get to the point where thru hikers, trail town residents, and the trail angels would all be making their own decisions about exposing themselves. If they are afraid, they stay home, if they are not, they are free to go to work, to open their stores, to do as they please.

    Finland is already starting to test their citizens https://tinyurl.com/v9zovwd and antibody tests are being developed here https://tinyurl.com/yx2b97fh


  20. #180
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    Nanatuk, this is a theory that would most likely cause a very high death toll untill the desired outcome (achiving a herd immunity) takes place.
    Look whats going on in Britain where they followed this very path for a few weeks.

    Any decision to go out or stay at home does not only affect yourself, but by means of the net of social contacts lots of other people too, which may include any number of potential high-risk patients.
    So going out, you might be responsible for the Corona death of others.
    Ethical?

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